Worlds 2019 Meta-Analysis

By ChahDresh, in X-Wing

13 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Not exactly true. A lot of I3-4 still struggles. When did you last see:

Kullbee Sperado

Jek Porkins

Leevan Tenza

Asajj Ventress

Graz

Static

Arvel

Bossk

Rebel Chewbacca

Oicunn

and many, many more.

The fact that certain specific I3-4 pilots are doing well more likely means that their ability is underpriced than that their initiative is actually meaningful.

You wont ever get those i3-4 pilots without spectacular abilities, like the Jeks and Leevans until FFG makes i5 and i6 point gap MUCH larger. 1 or 2pts more to go from jek or garven to biggs and thane is just a no brainer.

Other ships, like Bossk, are awaiting their upgrades to become relevant. Bossk has no way to consistently stress ships. So his ability is like Garvens, and all about the dice roll. Competitive players wont use them unless its a very high probability of triggering, not just relying on dice.

Edited by wurms

This is great information and much appreciated; it'd also be cool to see the change in average number of ships across each Worlds event since the start of 1e.

Additionally, any data on the average bid size for ace lists? I wonder how much bids vary by faction and if the list has a 6 in there.

1 hour ago, brownj23 said:

I think the point that you are highlighting is that we don't seem to have a consistent glossary of terms in x-wing. Do we have a consistent definition on what aces are? Is an ace just a i5 or i6, or is an ace something that has superior positional play like double re-position or decloak or something of that nature.

I would think Wedge has both. He has the potential to Boost as well as BR. T-65's are more maneuverable than they used to be while many other ships are now not as maneuverable as they used to be.

The only ship that can double reposition is an Interceptor....and Vader.

16 minutes ago, heychadwick said:

I would think Wedge has both. He has the potential to Boost as well as BR. T-65's are more maneuverable than they used to be while many other ships are now not as maneuverable as they used to be.

The only ship that can double reposition is an Interceptor....and Vader.

And all the Aethersprite Jedi

And Silencers

And Awings

I'd stick to "ace" being relatied to initiative, as that's really the issue and has always been to some degree

Though currently, it's the LEAST issue it's ever been imo. Game so far in a neat place

Edited by ficklegreendice
23 minutes ago, wurms said:

You wont ever get those i3-4 pilots without spectacular abilities, like the Jeks and Leevans until FFG makes i5 and i6 point gap MUCH larger. 1 or 2pts more to go from jek or garven to biggs and thane is just a no brainer

Exactly my point, and why I say middle initiatives aren’t doing that well

5 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Exactly my point, and why I say middle initiatives aren’t doing that well

Problem there is that...why would you ever bring a Partisan unique Xwing?

They're horribly situational and not terribly great. The I 4 is the "best" and he basically amounts to a skull squadron pilot in an Xwing (minus the faceoff)

Anyway, lower I with great abilities should be the norm

Initiative is such a huge advantage that it makes little sense to give them the best dice modifying abilities as well. The partisan X-wing abilities are stuff that should be on I 5-6 pilots, while guys like Rau's and Guri's should be on I 3-4

Edited by ficklegreendice

What ships were not present at all at Worlds?

42 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Not exactly true. A lot of I3-4 still struggles. When did you last see:

Kullbee Sperado

Jek Porkins

Leevan Tenza

Asajj Ventress

Graz

Static

Arvel

Bossk

Rebel Chewbacca

Oicunn

and many, many more.

The fact that certain specific I3-4 pilots are doing well more likely means that their ability is underpriced than that their initiative is actually meaningful.

I have seen a fair amount of Oicunn in double deci lists. Arvel is ALL OVER in the new rebel beef lists. Arvel also made top 16 at worlds. I have seen assaj now and again on vassal, and the same with bossk. The rest are ships with abilities that aren't great and they thus have an ability tax.

In general we ARE seeing a lot of I3-I4, so I don't know where you are getting that they are struggling:

Looking at list fortress for worlds: https://listfortress.com/tournaments/1251

  • Swiss rank 1 had an i4 in mace
  • swiss rank 2 had seevor thats an i3
  • swiss rank 3 had an i4 in lil annie
  • swiss rank 5 had an i4 in echo
  • swiss rank 7 had an i4 in chertek
  • swiss rank 8 had 2 i3 inqs.
  • swiss rank 9 had 2 i4s in chertek and grevious.
  • do I even need to continue!?!?
  • second place list had 3 i4s in jake and braylen and blount
  • top 4 lists had 4 i3 vipers and i3 capt seevor.
  • the only other top 8 list that didn't have an i3 or i4 is boba/fenn...

Seems to me like this poster is coming at us with his feelings and not using data to back up those feelings. I agree with the other posters that have said that the meta is very diverse right now and i3-4 is in as good of a place as its ever been.


7 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Exactly my point, and why I say middle initiatives aren’t doing that well

They aren't?

Sai, Jendon, Oicunn, Inquisitor, Zertik, Mace, Sinker, Wolffe, Bananakin, Arvel, Cassian, Ten, Braylen, Jake, Chertek, Wat, Grievous, Separatist Drone, Torani, Seevor, Black Sun Assassin, Greer, Zari, Jess, Temmin, Tavson, and probably more I'm forgetting.

All made cut at Worlds. All Ini3 to 4.

Methinks thou dost protest too much.

If your contention is that those ships are being chosen for their abilities rather than their Ini... okay? The value of Initiative is inherently non-linear. But we should point out that some of the choices above WERE made with Ini in mind.

Additionally I think EVERY faction currently has a meta viable i3/i4 pilot

  • Rebel: Braylen, cassian, ten numb, lots of others
  • Empire: inquisitors, jendon, echo, i4 phantoms
  • Scum: Capt Seevor, seen some interesting 4lom lists, seen some interesting koshka frost lists, palob can still be a beast, i3 vipers
  • Resistance: remember that 4 ship resistance list? its still good, greer and zari in a-wings, snap in a t70 getting double mods, jess getting double mods, cova with leia is still good.
  • FO: tavson in the upsilon has seen lots of success. 5 sfs is 4 omegas and backdraft all at i3-4, scorch in FO
  • republic: mace, broadside and matchstick, sinker
  • seps: grevious, chertek, i3 sep drones, dooku

Sooo as you can see there are viable options at this init in every faction!

4 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

They aren't?

Sai, Jendon, Oicunn, Inquisitor, Zertik, Mace, Sinker, Wolffe, Bananakin, Arvel, Cassian, Ten, Braylen, Jake, Chertek, Wat, Grievous, Separatist Drone, Torani, Seevor, Black Sun Assassin, Greer, Zari, Jess, Temmin, Tavson, and probably more I'm forgetting.

All made cut at Worlds. All Ini3 to 4.

Methinks thou dost protest too much.

If your contention is that those ships are being chosen for their abilities rather than their Ini... okay? The value of Initiative is inherently non-linear. But we should point out that some of the choices above WERE made with Ini in mind.

Hahah what I just said too!

36 minutes ago, FriendofYoda said:

This is great information and much appreciated; it'd also be cool to see the change in average number of ships across each Worlds event since the start of 1e.

Additionally, any data on the average bid size for ace lists? I wonder how much bids vary by faction and if the list has a 6 in there.

I don't have the data set from early Worlds. Tools like List Fortress just didn't exist. I can say from other analyses I've done that late-1.0 Worlds had an average in the 2.5 to 2.7 range because of the pervasiveness of 2 and 3 ship archetypes and the general degradation of filler.

I didn't do any bid analysis, as it would have been significantly more work. I might could be talked into it...

47 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

I feel like when people talk about “Ace Wing” they’re talking about initiative. It comes largely down to the idea that you must have I5-6 in your list somewhere or you’re shooting yourself in the foot. Clearly that isn’t always the case, but it mostly is for lists that aren’t on the cutting edge of pure efficiency (Vultures, Kihraxz, RZ-2, TIE/sf, B-Wings).

We’re not seeing a lot of upper generics or lower named pilots in widespread use, except in specific odd cases like Quadvipers.

I don't go to tournaments but we do play our games tournament style with the clock and such. I concur with the idea that you are shooting yourself in the foot without I5-I6 in your list. High I and some sort of passive mod and/or action economy feels like must haves for your list.

4 minutes ago, Frimmel said:

I don't go to tournaments but we do play our games tournament style with the clock and such. I concur with the idea that you are shooting yourself in the foot without I5-I6 in your list. High I and some sort of passive mod and/or action economy feels like must haves for your list.

Half of the worlds top 8 disagrees with this.

8 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

Sai, Jendon, Oicunn, Inquisitor, Zertik, Mace, Sinker, Wolffe, Bananakin, Arvel, Cassian, Ten, Braylen, Jake, Chertek, Wat, Grievous, Separatist Drone, Torani, Seevor, Black Sun Assassin, Greer, Zari, Jess, Temmin, Tavson, and probably more I'm forgetting.

And how many of those ships do not present some sort of action economy or passive dice modification? Black Sun Assassin?

11 hours ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Fif th Brother is too easy a choice to make on too many platforms. Other than that I think the costs are about right.

Agreed. Only two of the 6(!) Empire ships that have a Gunner slot also have access to a turret, Deci and Aggressor. So really only one Empire ship worth flying would potentially think about using the Hotshot or Agile instead of fifth brother.

His points need to be increased to at least 12 but maybe 13 or 14 to bring him in line with the non-Luke force gunners that other factions have access to.

Side note: Bombardier would probably at least see a little play if Trajectory Simulator wasn't 10 points.

1 hour ago, wurms said:

The game is **** near perfect right now (ensnare and regen only semi-major problems). Aside from a couple factions needing more variety (FO and Scum), there are so many viable lists and archetypes. 3awings and 2tranport pods make top 8? Wtf!? Rebel list without a uwing or leia in finals? Trip aces wins when everyone says you need to build 4+ ships? Marcel kicking *** with two naboo fighters. So much good stuff. Game is in a great place at the moment.

I wish I could like this twice. Even though my favorite ships are a little below the pack I think the meta is more broad in selection and style than it has ever been and the gap between the top and bottom of the meta is more narrow than it’s ever been.

57 minutes ago, wurms said:

You wont ever get those i3-4 pilots without spectacular abilities, like the Jeks and Leevans until FFG makes i5 and i6 point gap MUCH larger. 1 or 2pts more to go from jek or garven to biggs and thane is just a no brainer.

Other ships, like Bossk, are awaiting their upgrades to become relevant. Bossk has no way to consistently stress ships. So his ability is like Garvens, and all about the dice roll. Competitive players wont use them unless its a very high probability of triggering, not just relying on dice.

Bossk doesn't care if the target is stressed, only that he has crit results to swap one out for 2 hits. Or do you have BT-1 stapled to him so are merging their abilities in your head?

1 minute ago, Frimmel said:

And how many of those ships do not present some sort of action economy or passive dice modification? Black Sun Assassin?

Yeah that's kind of what I'm getting at. I see Seevor is taken a lot. Sure. What about Proach, Ahhav, or Yushyn? I see Wolffe and Sinker are taken a lot. What about Jag? Anakin's taken a lot. What about Padmé, Dinée, or the Handmaiden? Sai and Jendon are taken a lot. What about Kagi? Tavson's taken all the time. What about Cardinal, Dormitz, Stridan?

I think it's exactly true that the value of initiative is non-linear. That's true. Price scaling should also be non-linear. It currently is mostly linear though, especially when you look at the TIE Striker and the like.

8 minutes ago, Skitch_ said:

Agreed. Only two of the 6(!) Empire ships that have a Gunner slot also have access to a turret, Deci and Aggressor. So really only one Empire ship worth flying would potentially think about using the Hotshot or Agile instead of fifth brother.

His points need to be increased to at least 12 but maybe 13 or 14 to bring him in line with the non-Luke force gunners that other factions have access to.

Side note: Bombardier would probably at least see a little play if Trajectory Simulator wasn't 10 points.

Fifth Brother is literally just a force point. The ability is meh. I don’t see anything wrong with his price. Other non Force Gunners seem overpriced though.

2 minutes ago, Frimmel said:

And how many of those ships do not present some sort of action economy or passive dice modification? Black Sun Assassin?

Well, a few, depending upon how you want to define your terms. (I don't know how you'd classify Arvel's ability, or Zerik's, or...) Again, though, what's your point? If your argument is that these pilots are being chosen for their abilities rather than their Ini, sure... but so what? They're still seeing plenty of play. Being at an Ini disadvantage hasn't driven them from tables as we saw with precious few exceptions in 1.0.

High Initiative alone isn't enough to get ships on the table... witness Chertek's pantsing of both Berwer and Sun Fac. Action economy alone isn't enough either (say hi, Turr Phenir!). Passive mods are insufficient, says Ezra (twice). The sum package of a ship, moderated by its cost, has to be considered case by case.

How marvelous.

Sudden thought

So you've all been playing X Wing for years, and 2.0 is still X Wing. But it has only been with us a year.

2.0 completely rewrote the ability/initiative interactions. Translating new combo's into good tactical play is a pretty subtle thing. I feel like Worlds showed us that process starting to emerge and mature.

The point changes so far have hammered the easy ones and seemingly brought us to a really good place. You can go efficient and put it all on the table, there is still some that need minor adjustment, but now there may also be more room for interesting combo play and mixed tactics.

Relevant to the discussion here is that I2/3/4 pilots are a massive part of combo-ing clever stuff on the table. Their time may be now.

unknown.png

1 hour ago, ClassicalMoser said:

Not exactly true. A lot of I3-4 still struggles. When did you last see:

Kullbee Sperado

Jek Porkins

Leevan Tenza

Asajj Ventress

Graz

Static

Arvel

Bossk

Rebel Chewbacca

Oicunn

and many, many more.

The fact that certain specific I3-4 pilots are doing well more likely means that their ability is underpriced than that their initiative is actually meaningful.

Oicunn won Italian nationals.

Arvel made top 8 at Worlds. Check the Polish Rebel list by Michael Nowak.

😁

Other people on this thread have very eloquently listed all the I3/4 pilots currently killing it in the meta.

Seems you have very selectively picked some mid ps ships.

We could easily do the same for I6: when was the last time you saw Midnight or Dengar kill it at a competitive event? 😆

The meta is really spread out with low Int swarms, mid ps beef/efficiency, and finally ace lists all doing well. I am enjoying 2.0 greatly. 😇

27 minutes ago, Quack Shot said:

Fifth Brother is literally just a force point. The ability is meh. I don’t see anything wrong with his price. Other non Force Gunners seem overpriced though.

The gunners are priced as though we have some awesome turret options but we really don’t.