I collected dice data from this fine tool and asked google sheets to chart it all together, and now I want to make sure I didn't screw it up. Or if there's a much better way to graph the data, I'm open to that.

(Note that hits and crits are treated as the same for this document's purpose.)

Link:

Click for google doc

Alternatively:

"Click for Google, Doc!"

Once it's verified correct, I'm hoping to include it on the x-wing wiki, as well as use it for my own personal evils...

(mostly consoling my bad-at-math brain when I roll less than I desperately needed to roll. The "chance of at least # of hits" chart is as useful as it is damning... I want it printed out and available for reference when I play, so when I roll "poorly" I can see it was still close to average)

1 minute ago, Wazat said:

I collected dice data from this fine tool and asked google sheets to chart it all together, and now I want to make sure I didn't screw it up. Link to check out and verify the graphs are sane and not garbage. Or if there's a much better way to graph the data, I'm open to that. Note that hits and crits are treated as the same for this document's purpose.

Once it's verified correct, I'm hoping to include it on the x-wing wiki, as well as use it for my own personal evils...

(mostly consoling my bad-at-math brain when I roll less than I desperately needed to roll. The "chance of at least # of hits" chart is as useful as it is damning... I want it printed out and available for reference when I play, so when I roll "poorly" I can see it was still close to average)

That’s cool. I want one for armada. Great idea.

Lock focus averages .875 hits per die, basically.

E: as noted below this isn't right it's .9375.

22 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Lock focus averages .875 hits per die, basically.

Isn't it .75 hits per die?

Lock focus should be 1-1/16=93% no?

Chance to roll a blank on reroll as well as first roll is 1/4 sqared. Everything else is a hit.

29 minutes ago, Wazat said:

Isn't it .75 hits per die?

.75 is if you have either focus or lock, but not both

I wonder if I got bonkers data from the website tool I was using then...

Hrm.. I think at some point it reset its settings and I was left with focus unselected, meaning all my data is bad. *grumble*

Edit: Okay, I re-ran the simulations on the tool and updated the data. This looks more like what I'd expect, if a bit high?

41 minutes ago, Wazat said:

Isn't it .75 hits per die?

Lock is .75. Focus is .75. Together they're better...

Specifically for each die one or the other produces 3/4 good results. For focus it's easy, three hits one crit 2 eyes. 6/8 result. For lock it's a little more complex probabilistically but each die has a 50 50 chance of being good. You keep the good ones and get a single chance to reroll the bad ones, which is 50 per cent of the bad ones turning good. So .75 again.

For both you start with a .75 chance of a good result, rerolling only blanks, and then having a .75 chance of those blanks converting.

So actually my earlier figure is wrong. With lock focus it's .9375 hits per die. That is to say, .75 + (.75*.25).

Crit chance is a lot more complicated but if someone's shooting you with full double mods, taking all those dice as hits is a solid assumption...

31 minutes ago, Xeletor said:

Lock focus should be 1-1/16=93% no?

Chance to roll a blank on reroll as well as first roll is 1/4 sqared. Everything else is a hit.

Yeah I derped my maths.

Okay, that means the numbers I have now look right. I was worried for a bit.

Thank you, everyone!

One thing that in this visualization is hard to see is that double mods with n dice are more likely to yield n-1 hits. Look at 3 dice for example, highest value is the yellow line which is 2 hits. Similarly for all other dice numbers. Makes double mod fen less scary?

You’re all wrong!

Why consider probability over possibility? Rebellions are built on hope (for better than average rolls).

4 hours ago, Pewpewpew BOOM said:

You’re all wrong!

Why consider probability over possibility? Rebellions are built on hope (for better than average rolls).

5 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Yoda needs to adopt a growth mindset.

6 hours ago, Pewpewpew BOOM said:

Yoda needs to adopt a growth mindset.

He does so in TLJ!

Today at the tournament I learned you're not allowed to have a printout of dice odds. It's literally against the tournament rules. So I had to put my table away and not reference it, nor use the "X-Wing Dice Statistics" app someone showed me this morning.

Oh well, it was useful to compile the chart anyway, and it helps to illustrate what I was doing with my Wullffwarro War Crimes fleet (up to a 7-dice fully-modified attack using Saw + Target Lock). And if I can memorize a few key odds that'll make some choices easier.

The one that came up today was whether to fire 7 Saw-modified dice at Jess Pava (range 1 and obstructed, but not target-locked), or 5 fully-modified dice at Temmin (range 2 and not obstructed, with a lock). I went for Temmin, since Jess had a focus and could reroll all 3 dice, and Temmin was a more correct target at the time anyway (I like to save Jess for last, or wait for her to get isolated).