Brilliant Evasion

By rhetor, in X-Wing

If we need a free card for the lols, I propose static discharge vanes. Forget feedback array seeing large base troll use everywhere, but now when you inflict crits, you become terrified of accidentally giving disabled power regulator. Black 1 has few consequences, and none for Nien. Ion weapons are grenades that can blow up in your hand. Panic ensues.

19 hours ago, ClassicalMoser said:

1 point is where it's at. 0 points and it just literally makes force more mathematically efficient and becomes 100% autoinclude, which this game doesn't need. Free cards right now are things like the Ghost title, Jamming Beam, and R5-TK. All of these are so situational that the slot is left empty about as often as the upgrade is taken, just because the potential use is comparable to the effort of remembering/transporting the extra card.

• A good new candidate for 0 points: Ruthless - it's fairly hard to proc, you're already paying for the talent slot, and it hurts you more than your enemy on average (not to mention it just makes sense for Empire to have a passive damage-your-subordinate ability). It's literally never taken at 1. At 0, it becomes a reasonable choice.

• A bad candidate for 0 points - Brilliant Evasion. It makes your dice/force mathematically better and would always be used. Heroic proves these rolls do happen and when they do they can be life-saving. The tiny investment is quite often worth it, and this probably has more usefulness than Predictive Shot, which is sometimes taken at 1 point (1.1% of lists) and has been performing above average (27th percentile, rank 108 on ListFortress).

It'd be irrelevant at 1, just like Predictive is now. A singular notable list ran it and did well. The vast majority of time people are leaving the slot empty, even on Sense lists which hardly care about a bid.

I do agree it'd be abnormally good compared to the other 0pt options, but that's what it would take to actually be relevant.

Honestly I don't know wtf FFG was thinking. Its was priced at 6 when its came out?!? How silly is it that we are sitting here and debating 1 vs 0. I mean if they wanted it to not see play, they could have at least made it good (e.g. clearly better than Heroic, maybe AO level) and then priced it out of reach, that way it'd be at least an option in the future.

I doubt its likely, but I'd love to see FFG errata Predictive (drop either force cost or ||) and Brilliant (omewhere between Heroic and a defensive-AO), price them well, then price regen out, then bump the chassis up a bit. Overall a slight nerf, but a wholesomeness increase. Leave the ship playable but not as dominant and with more interesting/fun play options.

Edited by prauxim
meant Predictive not Instinctive
12 hours ago, prauxim said:

It'd be irerelevant at 1, just like Instinctive is now. A singular notable list ran it and did well. The vast majority of time people are leaving the slot empty, even on Sense lists which hardly care about a bid.

The problem with IA is nothing but the cost of missiles. If you could fit 5 IA Concussion inquisitors, they’d be quite good (except that spam lists are never good but you get my point).

Brilliant Evasion isn’t totally useless. It will save you a force or two per game. Suppose you had a talent that was just one spare 1-time Force charge. Would you buy it at 1 point? I would as often as not.

Edited by ClassicalMoser
27 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

It will save you a force or two per game.

Citation needed (well, not really, there's no way to provide one, but it's a good joke).


The chances of it saving you a force in any given game are extremely low. Absent enemy Jukes, you have to:

Be facing at least two hits from your opponent.

After rolling defence, still be facing at least two hits from your opponent (because if you're only facing one, you only need to spend one force regardless).

Have at least two eyeballs visible on the dice (chance of 2 eyeballs on 2 green is 6.25%, for reference).

Not have a focus or evade token you're willing to spend.

Not have an extra force you're willing to spend.

And if AALLLLLL of those conditions are met, you get an extra force saved for later. Enemy Jukes boost the chances a little, but not much.

A single one-off Force charge that sits there until used and doesn't regen is probably 1 point, if it goes in a Force slot, or 2 or 3 if it goes in any other slot. And that's miles better than Brilliant Evasion, because you get to choose when you can use it, and you get to use it in circumstances where BE wouldn't work, like when you're out of force otherwise.

I would still contend that there is no situation in which a point of bid wouldn't have a better chance of saving you a point of damage/a point of force in a given match, than brilliant evasion would.

18 hours ago, ClassicalMoser said:

[...] has more usefulness than Predictive Shot, which is sometimes taken at 1 point and has been performing above average (27th percentile, rank 108 on ListFortress).

Wait, folks are actually winning with Predictive Shot? That card is so bad.

Winning WITH something does not necessarily mean winning BECAUSE of something.

29 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

The chances of it saving you a force in any given game are extremely low. Absent enemy Jukes, you have to:

Well...

29 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Be facing at least two hits from your opponent.

Common enough.

30 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Have at least two eyeballs visible on the dice (chance of 2 eyeballs on 2 green is 6.25%, for reference).

It's 15.6% on 3 dice.

30 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Not have an extra force you're willing to spend.

But that's the point of Brilliant Evasion!!! It's a force-efficiency talent. Spend the points cost, to save a force in some situations. That's why I compare it to Hate. BE is clearly worse, but With/Without Hate, With/Without Brilliant Evasion, there isn't much difference in the final game state, except with the talents, under some scenarios, you have more force when the turn is done, and that means more options for later.

36 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Not have a focus or evade token you're willing to spend.

This is the other trick... Brilliant Evasion is a card which potentially allows someone to make different choices. If I've got Anakin with Brilliant Evasion on a CLT Delta 7B, I'm not going to take a Focus action, I'm going to take a Lock action or a movement action to get my bullseye.

Maybe that's a worse overall strategy, that it leads to riskier situations. Eh. I think that's fine. It's a choice someone can make.

32 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

I would still contend that there is no situation in which a point of bid wouldn't have a better chance of saving you a point of damage/a point of force in a given match, than brilliant evasion would.

Exactly! It should be a choice! Free Brilliant Evasion just buffs the force for all force users. 1 point Brilliant Evasion gives players a choice--maybe they gain a benefit, maybe they don't. Force don't need a buff, but player choices are always good.

I'd concur, it should be 1 point, not zero, for the same reason, but I don't think it's worth taking at 1 on any Force slot currently routinely used.

The biggest place I can see it being useful is on the one-force pilots, because at that point it IS letting you do something with your force you simply couldn't ever do normally - get two evades with it.

5 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Winning WITH something does not necessarily mean winning BECAUSE of something.

12 minutes ago, theBitterFig said:

Wait, folks are actually winning with Predictive Shot? That card is so bad.

I'm going to expand on my thoughts on Predictive Shot.

Brilliant Evasion is never bad text. Bad use of points, but never a bad effect. It makes defensive force use better. Now, it's not a lot better, the conditions for it being effective aren't super common, but BE is unequivocally better than non-BE.

That's not at all the case with Predictive Shot. Predictive Shot is often bad text and a bad in-game decision. Spending a force on Predictive Shot, rather than saving it to spend on the attack, very often will do less damage.

Yah, predictive shot should just not cost a force.

Or should be applied only after you've rolled and modified your reds.

4 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Or should be applied only after you've rolled and modified your reds.

But it's called predictive shot, not reactive shot... 😛

17 minutes ago, theBitterFig said:

I'm going to expand on my thoughts on Predictive Shot.

Brilliant Evasion is never bad text. Bad use of points, but never a bad effect. It makes defensive force use better. Now, it's not a lot better, the conditions for it being effective aren't super common, but BE is unequivocally better than non-BE.

That's not at all the case with Predictive Shot. Predictive Shot is often bad text and a bad in-game decision. Spending a force on Predictive Shot, rather than saving it to spend on the attack, very often will do less damage.

Predictive isn't that terrible on two dice attacks though.

Plus, it's a one point control effect. No 3 dice ace will want to stay in a spot where they become effectively a 1 or 2 green agility ship.

27 minutes ago, SavouryRain said:

Predictive isn't that terrible on two dice attacks though.

Plus, it's a one point control effect. No 3 dice ace will want to stay in a spot where they become effectively a 1 or 2 green agility ship.

It's good against high-agility enemies. It's bad against evading enemies. If you're focused and not getting shot at, it's kind of a "might as well" ability. It's pretty good on CLT jedi against higher-initiative opponents (especially Obi-Wan vs Vader, for example). It also makes your opponent lean more towards evade over focus, which means you won't be taking as many hits yourself.

Obviously these are small gains, but for one point you could do worse.

Edited by ClassicalMoser
On 9/14/2019 at 1:21 PM, Skitch_ said:

I like it on CLT Obi-Wan. It doesn't go off very often but it is really nice when it does. 3 doesn't feel too expensive on a CLT jedi, although 2 wouldn't feel too cheap (1 point certainly would feel too cheap).

can't he just spend his focus and then one force to get the focus back?

9 minutes ago, skotothalamos said:

can't he just spend his focus and then one force to get the focus back?

Yeah but if he's getting shot by an I1 pilot then... why not save his force?

It's useful because it lets him spend his focus on offense and still save his force to support his wingmen without worrying about his own defense.

Edited by ClassicalMoser