Grand meta-analysis-- what we can learn from one wild month of Extended

By ChahDresh, in X-Wing

TL;DR: In terms of internal and external balance, in terms of playstyle and list diversity, X-Wing is in a really good place.

It’s time for some meta-analysis! August saw a whirlwind of high-profile Extended tournaments across four continents. The July points change left us wondering what the game might look like. This run of events in August was our best chance to find out. So: What have we learned?

For the purposes of this analysis, I looked at cut-making lists from six events: the Australian System Open, NOVA Grand Championship, German Grand Championship, European Championship, Canadian Grand Championship, and the Buenos Aires Open. For commonality of analysis I am looking only at Extended events. Lists that made cuts at these events are the ones we might say are, at least, Good. It is a given that disentangling the list from the pilot can be challenging, which is why a broad look across all of these events can be useful. It’s also why I’m not including GenCon in this rundown: that event was run with only the vaguest idea of what might be good, so we might fairly say the field was weaker (due to more experimentation and fewer reps).

Caveats aside, let’s dive in!

GENERAL FINDINGS

Total lists in this sample: 154
Faction breakdown: 42 Imperial, 32 Republic, 19 Scum and Villainy, 17 First Order, 16 Rebellion, 15 Resistance, 12 Separatists

Average ships per list: 3.9

Empire and Republic lead the standings in cut-making lists by a considerable margin. That said, none of the factions are locked out by any means. Even the lower-scoring factions had lists top Swiss or win events outright. This is especially true of Separatists, who were extremely slow to gain adherents but who have really come on lately, including winning in Australia. If you were to compare this breakdown with other multi-faction games (or even X-Wing in its previous edition!), it looks quite good.

The average number is dragged up-up-up by Separatists. Don’t be fooled, though: numbers balance was all over the place! A third of the lists were 3-ship lists, but there were also five 2-ship lists and four 8-ship lists, and considerable numbers of 4-5-6. This is a far cry from late 1.0, which were basically half 2-ship lists and half 3-ship lists, with 4-ship lists a minor presence of 5+ nonexistent. Here, you’re just as likely to run into THE OCHO as you are a big-small combo.

THE EMPIRE REIGNS

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 14 out of 14

Average ships per list: 3.5

Most-played ship by number of hulls: TIE V1 (30 ships across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: Lambda-class Shuttle (23 lists with at least one Lambda)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Darth Vader (17)

Percent of TIE Interceptors piloted by Soontir Fel: 100%

When it comes to internal balance, no one tops the Empire. Every single one of the Empire’s ships appeared in at least one cut, including a lone TIE Aggressor (who’s laughing now?!). The joke about how Soontir flies all the Interceptors is funnier when the opposite is true for the faction writ large. Every Phantom pilot made a cut (that ship’s demise was greatly exaggerated); every Lambda pilot made several cuts. More than half of all Empire lists brought a Lambda, both with Palp and without. It may fly like an inebriated cow, but its support abilities, durability, and reasonable firepower have made it a staple. It appears to be the best support ship in the game and is a major asset for the faction.

Everyone loves Vader, though, and he was the most common unique pilot for the Empire. The price bump in the July adjustment hasn’t driven people away from the Dark Lord, and he has rewarded the loyalty of many.

There are too many Imperial archetypes to list.

LONG LIVE THE REPUBLIC

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 4 out of 4

Average ships per list: 3.7

Most-played ship by number of hulls: Aethersprite (50 hulls across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: Most-played ship by list presence: Aethersprite (26 out of 32)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Obi-Wan Kenobi (24)

Number of Torrents not piloted by Gold Squadron Troopers: 0

I think we can safely declare Obi-Wan the winner of the July points change. (Insert “Hello there!” meme.) The Republic is defined by the Aethersprite, which features in more than 3/4s of its lists; and the Aethersprite is defined by “the Negotiator” Kenobi. Only two out of 26 players opted against Obi-Wan as a pilot for their Aethersprite.

The Torrent is defined even more precisely by the Gold Squadron Trooper. When a ship is there to be chaff, it just doesn’t make sense for it to be expensive chaff.

One of the Republic’s main features is the relative interchangeability, points- and function-wise, of Ric, a 104 th Battalion ARC, and a pair of Torrents. This is most apparent in two archetypes: Anakin plus Obi-Wan, and Sinker-plus-stuff. The former features many variations on Ric, a Torrent, or two Torrents; the other features many different mixes of 104ths, Torrents, and Ric. All of this explains how the most common single list for Republic is Anakin-ObiWan-Ric, and yet the average squad size is almost four. The Republic boasts both strong swarms and top aces. That’s a rare thing indeed.

SCUM FESTERS

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 15 out of 19

Average ships per list: 3.8

Most-played ship by number of hulls: Khiraxz (13 ships across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: Fang Fighter (8 lists out of 19 with at least one Fang)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Old Teroch (8)

Initiative 6 Scum pilots in our sample: 0

I was amazed when I saw it, but Old Teroch has pulled off a coup and usurped ownership of the Fang Fighter from Fenn Rau. No Fang made the cut without Old Teroch in the cockpit, and none of Fenn’s I6 Scum buddies showed up either.

This is representative of the faction as a whole. Scum is the bizarro-Empire in that most of its ships have found success with only a single pilot. The Fang, HWK, Lancer, Mining Guild TIE, and Y-Wing all made multiple appearances, but only ever with one of their pilots. This strongly suggests that it is the particular abilities they bring that’s desirable or cost-effective, rather than their ships.

Nevertheless, Scum has good diversity in terms of which ships appear, largely because their major archetypes don’t have overlapping pieces. Their most commonly effective lists are Torkil-Seevor-3xMarauder, Ketsu-Teroch-Kavil, and 4-LOM-Latts-Koshka-Nashtah Pup. There are no common elements amongst these lists, other than that they’re all focused on debuffing the opponent and putting them in uncomfortable positions. How scummy!

FIRST ORDER ON THE ATTACK

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 4 out of 4

Average ships per list: 3.6

Most-played ship by number of hulls: TIE /sf (29 ships across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: TIE /sf (14 lists out of 17 with at least one /sf)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Kylo Ren (12)

Number of Upsilon pilots besides Tavson: 1 out of 9 (in a list that already had Tavson)

Remember how I said Republic was special because it was effective with both aces and swarms? The First Order can duplicate that in a single ship: Quickdraw was everywhere, and there were also three 5-ship /sf lists that made cuts. A few lists combined these approaches, with Quickdraw and generic /sfs together.

The Upsilon continues to be all about Tavson, as the Silencer continues to be dominated by Kylo (only one list used Blackout without Kylo already in the squad). The points change has drawn in a couple of TIE /fos, but not many. Kylo, Tavson, and /sfs define the First Order—and those are pretty darn solid building blocks.

REBELLIONS ARE BUILT ON HOPE

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 12 out of 17

Average ships per list: 3.5

Most-played ship by number of hulls: X-Wing (15 ships across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: X-Wing (11 lists out of 16 with at least one X-Wing)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Wedge and Ten and Braylen (5 each)

Number of Rebel lists with more than 4 ships: 0

A full 2/3ds of Rebel lists (10 in all) were four-ship types, and half of those were built on Braylen and Ten’s continued excellence. The points increase to the classic “Beef Wedgington” archetype has split the Braylen-Ten team apart from Wedge, but those elements now anchor lists of their own. None is pervasive, though; Luke, Garven, and Thane also do their part to ensure the X-Wing is prominent in “X-Wing”.

One interesting phenomenon is the relative rarity of generic pilots for the Rebellion. With only ten out of their 57 ships being flown by a generic rather than a unique pilot, the Rebellion depends more than any faction besides Resistance on the skills of its pilots rather than the efficiency of its ships. Speaking of…

THE SPARK OF RESISTANCE

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 5 out of 6

Average ships per list: 4.1

Most-played ship by number of hulls: T-70 (21 ships across all lists)

Most-played ship by list appearances: T-70 (12 lists out of 15 with at least one T-70)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Finn (10)

Ratio of Heroic to all other talents (including no talent): 3-to-1

This is the true home of heroes. Only six generic pilots appear in the whole sample out of 61 ships; and of the 39 ships with access to the talent slot, 30 chose to take Heroic. These are some heroic heroes. Small-base heroes, specifically: only one large-based ship (a lone Chewbacca) made a cut.

Heroes come in fours, apparently. 2/3s of Resistance lists were four-ship lists. The contents of those lists varied quite a bit… apart from Finn. The Big Deal has rapidly become a Resistance staple. It looks like you can do a lot of different things with Finn, a T-70, and flavor to taste—the T-70 is as solid as they come for workhorse ships.

That said, 5 A-Wings continues to be splendid, even with the (effective) loss of L’ulo as an X-Wing in disguise.

AGGRESSIVE SEPARATION

Number of faction ship types that made cuts: 4 out of 4

Average ships per list: 7.3

Most-played ship by number of hulls: Vulture (70) (!)

Most-played ship by list appearances: Vulture (12 lists out of 12 with at least one Vulture)

Most-played pilot by list appearances: Trade Federation Drone (12); most-played unique pilot is Captain Sear (8)

Average Vultures per list: 6

Have you spotted the swarm players yet? I spotted them! The big evolution in Separatist play has been the realization that Energy Shell Charges might not be necessary after all; plenty of cut-making lists included only Grappling Struts, or nothing at all, on their Vultures. No Separatist went to battle with fewer than four Vultures (and that player was rolling with three Hyenas).

That core of Vultures, though, still leaves points to play at the margins. We see plenty of variations. Classically, you get a Belballub with a tactical relay calling shots for the swarm, and we saw that; but we also saw double Belballubs, Belballub-Hyena, double or triple Hyenas, and an Infiltrator. And that Infiltrator player, the one bold enough to try something others didn’t dare attempt, won the whole darn thing in Australia.

And that, perhaps, is the final takeaway. There are so many different things finding success, from so many different factions. While I’ve tried to highlight the things that are doing well—and there are some things that are unambiguously Good—the number of different styles and archetypes defies easy characterization.

In a way, this is liberating. It means you can fly what you love—and, if you’ve put in the reps and know how it works, odds are you’ll be fine.

It’s a good time to be playing X-Wing.

Edited by ChahDresh

58 out of 68 ships in the game (85%) made a cut!? That’s fantastic.

So just a question about the Buenos Aires event data, are they still not getting current product or did they ever get replacement produce from 2.0 release?

-R

@ChahDresh , thanks for taking the time to do this!

6 hours ago, ChahDresh said:

Most-played ship by list appearances: X-Wing (11 lists out of 16 with at least one Lambda)

I'm glad to know Lambdas are allowed in Rebel squads so they are able to taste a little bit of the mighty Empire :P

Now, in a more serious note, I'd like to know which ships weren't fielded in Rebel and Scum, although I imagine we can correctly guess most of them...

Edited by Chetote
57 minutes ago, Chetote said:

I'm glad to know Lambdas are allowed in Rebel squads so they are able to taste a little bit of the mighty Empire :P

Now, in a more serious note, I'd like to know which ships weren't fielded in Rebel and Scum, although I imagine we can correctly guess most of them...

Good catch, fixed.

As to the unplayed ships, they are: the Attack Shuttle, K-Wing, TIE Fighter, YT-2400, and Z-95 for the Rebels; IG-2000, YT-1300, Escape Craft (sorry, Marcel), and Jumpmaster for Scum; and the Starfortress for the Resistance. (The two-point drop to the Starfortress didn't exactly move the needle, it seems.)

Edited by ChahDresh

Of these ships, the only one that surprises me is the escape craft. It's still an effective little coordinator, so it's absence must be related to list building, rather than the viability of the chassis.

But yeah, overall these absences make sense. I had the Auzituck pegged for the list of neglected ships, but I'm glad to hear it's getting some love.

Awesome reading, thank you for your effort.

Glad to know the game is in good shape.

8 hours ago, WAC47 said:

58 out of 68 ships in the game (85%) made a cut!?

That's hard to believe even knowing that it's true. Phenomenal.

50 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

Good catch, fixed.

As to the unplayed ships, they are: the Attack Shuttle, K-Wing, TIE Fighter, YT-2400, and Z-95 for the Rebels; IG-2000, YT-1300, Escape Craft (sorry, Marcel), and Jumpmaster for Scum; and the Starfortress for the Resistance. (The two-point drop to the Starfortress didn't exactly move the needle, it seems.)

So the big centerpiece ships in this list need some love, but I bet some of the cheaper ships COULD make a cut if a dedicated player decided to take them (much like the TIE aggressor).

The power curve is so much flatter that there’s a good chance that things aren’t performing because people just haven’t taken them, not because they’re that underpowered.

1 hour ago, ChahDresh said:

Good catch, fixed.

As to the unplayed ships, they are: the Attack Shuttle, K-Wing, TIE Fighter, YT-2400, and Z-95 for the Rebels; IG-2000, YT-1300, Escape Craft (sorry, Marcel) , and Jumpmaster for Scum; and the Starfortress for the Resistance. (The two-point drop to the Starfortress didn't exactly move the needle, it seems.)

****, I have all of those (and even 2x IGs) :(

9 hours ago, WAC47 said:

58 out of 68 ships in the game (85%) made a cut!? That’s fantastic.

So what 10 did not make it?

16 minutes ago, Pewpewpew BOOM said:

So what 10 did not make it?

2 hours ago, ChahDresh said:

Good catch, fixed.

As to the unplayed ships, they are: the Attack Shuttle, K-Wing, TIE Fighter, YT-2400, and Z-95 for the Rebels; IG-2000, YT-1300, Escape Craft (sorry, Marcel), and Jumpmaster for Scum; and the Starfortress for the Resistance. (The two-point drop to the Starfortress didn't exactly move the needle, it seems.)

3 hours ago, Chetote said:

I'm glad to know Lambdas are allowed in Rebel squads

They had a clearance code. . .

2 hours ago, Vector Strike said:

****, I have all of those (and even 2x IGs) :(

Then it is your job to make Scum great again!

11 hours ago, ChahDresh said:

And that Infiltrator player, the one bold enough to try something others didn’t dare attempt, won the whole darn thing in Australia.

And that, perhaps, is the final takeaway. There are so many different things finding success, from so many different factions. While I’ve tried to highlight the things that are doing well—and there are some things that are unambiguously Good—the number of different styles and archetypes defies easy characterization.

In a way, this is liberating. It means you can fly what you love—and, if you’ve put in the reps and know how it works, odds are you’ll be fine.

It’s a good time to be playing X-Wing.

What was the Dooku list from Australia? I haven't been paying attention to the Extended field because I've been focused on HS building and testing.

1 hour ago, Darth Meanie said:

They had a clearance code. . .

In their defense it was older code, but it did check out because they decided to fly casual.

The Dooku list was 6 TFDs with Struts and Dooku with Scimitar, Heightened Perception, Grievous, tractor beam and K2-B4 as the relay.

It could do some amazing things. It could stay cloaked to mitigate incoming damage, use Dooku to shed the cloak token, then Tractor a target to serve up to the droids. Or, if a target is weakened, it could opt to shoot at 7 to scoop it. The relay forces mind games on the enemy, especially with the threat of the tractor beam looming.

19 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

The Dooku list was 6 TFDs with Struts and Dooku with Scimitar, Heightened Perception, Grievous, tractor beam and K2-B4 as the relay

****, I’ve got one more Hyperspace Trial this season, and I was looking at building a list with the Ghost (assuming it joins Hyperspace this weekend), but I could try that, too. I finally started looking at Dooku Tractor shenanigans, but hadn’t seriously considered Vultures with no ESCs, let alone switching to K2-B4.

I... really like this list.

40 minutes ago, ChahDresh said:

The Dooku list was 6 TFDs with Struts and Dooku with Scimitar, Heightened Perception, Grievous, tractor beam and K2-B4 as the relay.

It could do some amazing things. It could stay cloaked to mitigate incoming damage, use Dooku to shed the cloak token, then Tractor a target to serve up to the droids. Or, if a target is weakened, it could opt to shoot at 7 to scoop it. The relay forces mind games on the enemy, especially with the threat of the tractor beam looming.

If only I had the droids...I'll have to theorycraft with what I have, and use this as the base.

So what I’m hearing is that the devs have done a phenomenal job of adjusting between ships, and now they need to focus down a bit on adjusting within them. I’d love to see some rebel and imperial generics go down, especially the iconic TIE/ln and TIE/in, whose generics almost never see the table. I want to see them experiment with crossing a few more thresholds for sure.

Also curious what a small drop to lock-based missiles and ion/HLC cannons would do for the underused ships.

Also there’s superabundant proof now that the YT2400 needs a price cut and the Jump needs an errata to the action bar or title.

Edited by ClassicalMoser
27 minutes ago, ClassicalMoser said:

So what I’m hearing is that the devs have done a phenomenal job of adjusting between ships, and now they need to focus down a bit on adjusting within them. I’d love to see some rebel and imperial generics go down, especially the iconic TIE/ln and TIE/in, whose generics almost never see the table. I want to see them experiment with crossing a few more thresholds for sure.

Also curious what a small drop to lock-based missiles and ion/HLC cannons would do for the underused ships.

Also there’s superabundant proof now that the YT2400 needs a price cut and the Jump needs an errata to the action bar or title.

Generic /ins won't see much play until they cost initiatives more appropriately.

I agree generally with this assessment, and am pretty happy with the state of the game. Its good knowing I don't know all the answers yet. And the interactions are diverse enough to show that at this point, there's a lot of design details I still don't understand that I think the devs do.

(There are things that I know well, and I'll tell em to you guys when its needed. But I am very happy there's much more to explore)

great summary. as a scum player I'm interested mostly in them. Fenn is costly and rather fragile. without ability to take modifications from hull upgrade or stealth device like Soontir or any shields at all (poe and wedge at least have some psuedo-durability) im not surprised that Old Teroch (56pts) gets the nod over Fenn Rau (68pts). in a meta filled with squirelly Jedi with force mods and hard hitting ships like wedge Fenn isn't going to give back enough value because he just dies to easily. Good to see Torkil and friends like 4-LOM and capts sevor getting played regularly. Right now im thinking Ketsu/maul/fearless+Old Teroch/predator+kavil/VTG/DT is the strongest scum list right now.

Edited by Da_Brown_Bomber
On 9/10/2019 at 9:43 AM, Da_Brown_Bomber said:

great summary. as a scum player I'm interested mostly in them. Fenn is costly and rather fragile. without ability to take modifications from hull upgrade or stealth device like Soontir or any shields at all (poe and wedge at least have some psuedo-durability) im not surprised that Old Teroch (56pts) gets the nod over Fenn Rau (68pts). in a meta filled with squirelly Jedi with force mods and hard hitting ships like wedge Fenn isn't going to give back enough value because he just dies to easily. Good to see Torkil and friends like 4-LOM and capts sevor getting played regularly. Right now im thinking Ketsu/maul/fearless+Old Teroch/predator+kavil/VTG/DT is the strongest scum list right now.

Ketsu, Seevor, Teroch, 4-LOM, Torkil, they all have those pesky "dirty tricks" we all like to go on and on about. After Palob went bye-bye as the most points efficient a-hole pilot (THIEF!), other a-hole pilots giving out negative effects took his spot :)

Apart from Teroch, the others can also interact with Jedi pilots.
The jedi do not have to have green tokens for Palob to steal or Teroch to discard (except Obi?), however they do have to roll green dice which Ketsu can take away, have a bit more limited blues to clear stress from 4-LOM (or 0-0-0 or both), want to keep their locks un-jammed and would like to Initiative kill something.

It also helps they are not too expensive compared to the former power pieces like Fenn, Boba and Moldy Palob.


But like... give me my old Brobots back you darn dirty apes!


On the topic of making TIE Fighter generics cheaper... do we really need Howl + 7 Academies in the game?

Edited by Polda