So I’m no expert on odds so if anyone wants to check my numbers, please do.

I wanted to compare the attack odds for Obiwan with the other saber wielders (Luke, Vader and Sabine) in average amount of hits per roll.

With Vader and Obi I assumed Saber Throw and with Luke and Sabine their native range weapons.

Obi-wan’s Numbers > melee 3.25 (melee with Tenacity 4.0) range 2.25

Luke’s Numbers > melee 3.75 range 1.75

Vader’s Numbers > melee 4.5 range 2.25

Sabine’s Numbers > melee 3.125 (melee with Tenacity 4.0) range 1.875 (two attacks on different targets)

Vader is still by far King of the Combat monsters, but because of Critical 2 and the possibility of Tenacity, Obi is almost as much of a combat monster, but he needs to be wounded to get there. Obi also can use a defensive surge in melee where Vader cannot. I think Obi-wan is well worth his points. The only one being left behind is the poor little farm boy, but is that power creep?

I can certainly think of worse uses of Guardian on Obi-wan than to activate Tenacity...

(I was forgetting the .25 that would be added by two possible surges converting)

I think you're close on Obi, but each die without surge should be

Red .75

Black .5

White .25

That would give Obi a flat 3 in melee. Tenacity would bump him to a 3.75.

His ranged would have to be two red and one black at best. So he should be a little weaker than Vader at 2.0 even.

Still great. And this isn't taking any other abilities or tricks into consideration.

12 minutes ago, crx3800 said:

I think you're close on Obi, but each die without surge should be

Red .75

Black .5

White .25

That would give Obi a flat 3 in melee. Tenacity would bump him to a 3.75.

His ranged would have to be two red and one black at best. So he should be a little weaker than Vader at 2.0 even.

Still great. And this isn't taking any other abilities or tricks into consideration.

But he has Critical 2 so he is getting two surge conversions

Yes. As I noted at the bottom, I wasn't taking anything else into account. But, I guess that critical 2 would add .25 to the pool.

I don't think this is power creep. Namely in that the Republic can't use Luke and the Rebellion currently can't use Kenobi.

Luke's in a great spot right now and no releases planned are going to shove him out of it. Rebels have a hard time using Luke as their only commander as it's easy for him to get isolated due to how close he wants to operate and that rebel units melt if they try to keep pace with Luke.

Without knowing how effective Kenobi's command cards are, it's hard to judge him right now. What I can say is that the higher defense of clone troopers better facilitates an aggressive playstyle where Kenobi will be in the thick of it.

27 minutes ago, crx3800 said:

(I was forgetting the .25 that would be added by two possible surges converting)

I think you're close on Obi, but each die without surge should be

Red .75

Black .5

White .25

That would give Obi a flat 3 in melee. Tenacity would bump him to a 3.75.

His ranged would have to be two red and one black at best. So he should be a little weaker than Vader at 2.0 even.

Still great. And this isn't taking any other abilities or tricks into consideration.

Each surge only gives + 0.125 which is the 12.5% chance of rolling 1 on a d8. So I think I’m right, unless I’m not seeing what your saying.

31 minutes ago, crx3800 said:

(I was forgetting the .25 that would be added by two possible surges converting)

I think you're close on Obi, but each die without surge should be

Red .75

Black .5

White .25

That would give Obi a flat 3 in melee. Tenacity would bump him to a 3.75.

His ranged would have to be two red and one black at best. So he should be a little weaker than Vader at 2.0 even.

Still great. And this isn't taking any other abilities or tricks into consideration.

Oh and the range for Obi is: Red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + surge 0.125 + surge 0.125 = 2.25

Right?

51 minutes ago, JediPartisan said:

The only one being left behind is the poor little farm boy, but is that power creep?

Isn't Kenobi more expensive than Luke?

1 minute ago, KommanderKeldoth said:

Isn't Kenobi more expensive than Luke?

Yep 15 point (not including upgrades) and Obi needs Saber Throw to even be able to have a ranged attack.

Just now, JediPartisan said:

Yep 15 point (not including upgrades) and Obi needs Saber Throw to even be able to have a ranged attack.

So it's not really power creep then. I think Soresu granting deflect damage in melee is going to be pretty awesome though, so we'll see

Just now, KommanderKeldoth said:

So it's not really power creep then. I think Soresu granting deflect damage in melee is going to be pretty awesome though, so we'll see

Yep, that’s why the question and not a statement.😁

I think that the developers have done a good job of keeping power creep to a minimum, if there is any at all.

But I guess with all games, power creep is inevitable.☹️

Keep in mind Obi doesn't have relentless only charge, so saber throw may not be the best upgrade.

54 minutes ago, DarkTrooperZero said:

Keep in mind Obi doesn't have relentless only charge, so saber throw may not be the best upgrade.

I wouldn't take it on him. You need to be getting in position for a charge and possibly dodging, not wasting actions with ranged attacks.

7 hours ago, JediPartisan said:

Oh and the range for Obi is: Red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + surge 0.125 + surge 0.125 = 2.25

Right?

It’s not only two of the dice that are capable of surging however, just the first two results that apply.

So you’d have the full average of .75 value from surge on all 6 dice, because that’s still less than 2 max value.

12 hours ago, Derrault said:

It’s not only two of the dice that are capable of surging however, just the first two results that apply.

So you’d have the full average of .75 value from surge on all 6 dice, because that’s still less than 2 max value.

I think JediPartisan did it correctly, actually. Critical X means that X number of surges across the entire attack pool are treated as hits. So in this case 2 additional faces across the entire pool count as a hit. I believe the calculation is fairly simple because all dice have the same number of surge faces, so it doesn't matter which die you put the extra chance on. It would be more complicated if, say, white dice had 2 surge faces or something.

On 4/19/2019 at 12:53 PM, nashjaee said:

I think JediPartisan did it correctly, actually. Critical X means that X number of surges across the entire attack pool are treated as hits. So in this case 2 additional faces across the entire pool count as a hit. I believe the calculation is fairly simple because all dice have the same number of surge faces, so it doesn't matter which die you put the extra chance on. It would be more complicated if, say, white dice had 2 surge faces or something.

No his way of doing it is correct only if the rule was that ony two PARTICULAR dice could contribute crits to the pool, not 2 crits off of any die. Luke and Obi Wan have the exact same average damage unless Obi rolls more than 2 crits. The chances of that happening are about 0.2%.

On 4/18/2019 at 11:53 PM, Derrault said:

It’s not only two of the dice that are capable of surging however, just the first two results that apply.

So you’d have the full average of .75 value from surge on all 6 dice, because that’s still less than 2 max value.

Yep, unless you roll more than 2 crits (as above, incredibly rare) it's the same as Surge: Critical.

Edit: I'm slightly wrong, as pointed out below. The chance of Obi Wan rolling more than 2 crits is more like 3%.

1 hour ago, arnoldrew said:

Luke and Obi Wan have the exact same average damage

This cannot possibly be true (although, sure, the difference may be small). If I did it correctly, there is about a 3% chance to roll more than 2 surge icons. Where did you get 0.2%?

25 minutes ago, nashjaee said:

This cannot possibly be true (although, sure, the difference may be small). If I did it correctly, there is about a 3% chance to roll more than 2 surge icons. Where did you get 0.2%?

It's basically a 1/512 (>0.2%) chance to roll 3 crits. Add to that the chance of rolling 4 crits (`about 0.025%). plus the chance of rolling 5, etc. Please correct my math if I'm off, it's been a while. Regardless, they have the same average damage unless Obi Wan rolls 3 or more surges, which as you said is rare.

10 minutes ago, arnoldrew said:

It's basically a 1/512 (>0.2%) chance to roll 3 crits. Add to that the chance of rolling 4 crits (`about 0.025%). plus the chance of rolling 5, etc. Please correct my math if I'm off, it's been a while. Regardless, they have the same average damage unless Obi Wan rolls 3 or more surges, which as you said is rare.

I still don’t see what you’re saying.

Obi’s attack dice are: red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + black 0.5 + white 0.25 + white 0.25 = 3

That is without adding the Critical 2 ability and I think we agree on everything up to this point. If we collect the odds for red dice with surge the number would be 0.875, or black die with a surge it’s 0.625, or white 0.375. In each case the difference between rolling a die without surge, and rolling a die with surge is 0.125. So having the keyword Critical anything only adds 0.125 to the die’s average. Since it doesn’t matter what die rolls a surge, as I understand it, we can just add 0.125 twice.

So then we get: red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + black 0.5 + white 0.25 + white 0.25 + surge 0.125 + surge 0.125 = 3.25

1 hour ago, arnoldrew said:

It's basically a 1/512 (>0.2%) chance to roll 3 crits. Add to that the chance of rolling 4 crits (`about 0.025%). plus the chance of rolling 5, etc. Please correct my math if I'm off, it's been a while. Regardless, they have the same average damage unless Obi Wan rolls 3 or more surges, which as you said is rare.

Ah I see. Yeah, your mistake is you're calculating the odds of rolling 3 crits on 3 dice (that would indeed be 1/512). That's different than rolling 3 crits on 6 dice. It's more complicated, and I prefer to resort to using pre-built calculators

Like this one. Enter 6 in the first box and 1/8 in the second box, then add up the results of 3-6 to see the odds of more than 2 surges: https://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1223626305

Anyway, I think we're both wrong. The easiest way to calculate this is to brute-force simulate it. Now we just need whoever wrote the LegionCalculator.exe to update it, haha.

1 hour ago, nashjaee said:

Ah I see. Yeah, your mistake is you're calculating the odds of rolling 3 crits on 3 dice (that would indeed be 1/512). That's different than rolling 3 crits on 6 dice. It's more complicated, and I prefer to resort to using pre-built calculators

Like this one. Enter 6 in the first box and 1/8 in the second box, then add up the results of 3-6 to see the odds of more than 2 surges: https://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1223626305

Anyway, I think we're both wrong. The easiest way to calculate this is to brute-force simulate it. Now we just need whoever wrote the LegionCalculator.exe to update it, haha.

Thank you! That is helpful. I did look at the most recent LEgionCalculator and saw that it wasn't updated with Critical X.

4 hours ago, JediPartisan said:

I still don’t see what you’re saying.

Obi’s attack dice are: red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + black 0.5 + white 0.25 + white 0.25 = 3

That is without adding the Critical 2 ability and I think we agree on everything up to this point. If we collect the odds for red dice with surge the number would be 0.875, or black die with a surge it’s 0.625, or white 0.375. In each case the difference between rolling a die without surge, and rolling a die with surge is 0.125. So having the keyword Critical anything only adds 0.125 to the die’s average. Since it doesn’t matter what die rolls a surge, as I understand it, we can just add 0.125 twice.

So then we get: red 0.75 + red 0.75 + black 0.5 + black 0.5 + white 0.25 + white 0.25 + surge 0.125 + surge 0.125 = 3.25

No, it’s not just the value of the surge probability on 2 specific dice (that would be .25), it’s the probability of up to any 2 surge outcomes on all 6 dice.

Like Impact conversions of hits, that should look at the total number of surges and add up to +x where x is equal to the Critical value. Over 6 dice .125 x 6 are surges (.75), so on average all .75 worth of damage is converted to crit damage (since it’s less than 2).

If the average surges were somehow higher, then the critical x value, average additional value would be lower vis surge to crit...but that’s basically never the case.

1 hour ago, Derrault said:

No, it’s not just the value of the surge probability on 2 specific dice (that would be .25), it’s the probability of up to any 2 surge outcomes on all 6 dice.

Like Impact conversions of hits, that should look at the total number of surges and add up to +x where x is equal to the Critical value. Over 6 dice .125 x 6 are surges (.75), so on average all .75 worth of damage is converted to crit damage (since it’s less than 2).

If the average surges were somehow higher, then the critical x value, average additional value would be lower vis surge to crit...but that’s basically never the case.

I think you’re over complicating it. If there was no Critical key word an we were just dealing with a natural surge to a hit, you would gain 0.125 per die.

The Critical keyword only limits how many times that surge is applied and it should be as simple as adding that 0.125 a number of times equal to the number of the Critical keyword.

If you want to see this explained better, I think the Impact X website does a waaaaaay better job than I can.

https://www.legionimpact.com/blog/2018/6/10/never-tell-me-the-odds-swl-dice

30 minutes ago, JediPartisan said:

I think you’re over complicating it. If there was no Critical key word an we were just dealing with a natural surge to a hit, you would gain 0.125 per die.

The Critical keyword only limits how many times that surge is applied and it should be as simple as adding that 0.125 a number of times equal to the number of the Critical keyword.

If you want to see this explained better, I think the Impact X website does a waaaaaay better job than I can.

https://www.legionimpact.com/blog/2018/6/10/never-tell-me-the-odds-swl-dice

I literally don't know how else to say it other than how I (and others) have said it, but you're wrong. I'm well familiar with the calculations on that page, as well as how the Critical X keyword functions. The information on that page does not account for the Critical X keyword since it didn't exist. You CAN'T just add 0.125 for the value of the Critical keyword and get anything close to a meaningful approximation, and we've explained why looking at the numbers will tell you immediately why that's wrong.

You DO gain 0.125 per die, except in the extremely small number of cases where you will roll more than 3 crits (less than 3% of the time). The discrepancy (0.5 damage is pretty big) between your numbers for Luke and Obi Wan's average damage should immediately tell you "oh wait, that's way too much difference than a tiny 3% chance to have less damage should account for."

Edit: I hope I'm not coming off as overly negative, I'm just extremely frustrated by my inability to communicate something to you that makes so much sense in my head but when the words come out they no do good.