Some true things (well, close enough to true... I'm simulating Gas Clouds with a full evade token, rather than one which only works with blanks, because it'll be so much faster)

• Trick Shot obstructed shots with regular obstacles are a net damage benefit over non-obstructed shots
  • Just mathing out one scenario: 1.9 damage vs 1.5 damage with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
• Trick Shot obstructed shots over Gas Clouds are a net damage loss over obstructed shots
  • TS Gas Cloud: 1.053 vs non-obstructed: 1.531; with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
• Non-Trick Shot obstructed shots are a lot worse over Gas Clouds
  • With 3 focused red vs 2 printed green, Gas Cloud: 0.494 hits, vs other obstacles: 1.217 hits
• Trick Shot still has substantial damage added vs non trick shot obstructed shots
  • The damage added by Trick Shot vs No Trick Shot over Gas Clouds is typically around 70-90% of the damage added by Trick Shot vs No Trick Shot over other obstacles
    • 0.67 added over GC instead of 0.73 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 1 printed green
    • 0.5 added over GC instead of 0.7 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
    • 0.45 added over GC instead of 0.63 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 3 printed green

There's a bunch of things to think about.

• Trick Shot being at 70% effectiveness isn't too bad, if you're comparing TS and non-TS shots
• Obstructed Shots, instead of being a net benefit are a net negative to damage
• Obstructed Defense is a lot more valuable.
  • The obstructed shot strategy isn't only about extra hits, but about extra green dice for you
    • Gas Cloud Trick Shot Engagement: -0.5 damage dealt, -1.0 damage received, compared to a non-obstructed engagement
    • Non-Gas Trick Shot Engagement: +0.4 damage dealt, -0.3 damage received, compared to a non-obstructed engagement
  • Putting that together, a Trick Shot/Gas Cloud engagement is a bit worse in the total net shifts. Damage dealt goes down by 0.9 (+0.4 to -0.5), in exchange for an extra 0.7 reduction in damage taken (-0.3 to -1.0)
  • But the net difference is only -0.2 hits per engagement. Not so much that I'd abandon Trick Shot based strategies in the fear that an opponent might bring Gas Clouds, but enough that I don't want to bring gas clouds myself. Probably.
• It's possible to leverage the low penalties for flying over gas clouds. So maybe I do want to bring Gas Clouds?
  • There are two Trick Shot lists I've been thinking about lately.
    • The other is one I'd started thinking about a few weeks ago, simply because Starvipers are fun. Guri and 2x Black Sun Assassin, all with Advanced Sensors and Trick Shot. Advanced Sensors ships seem like they might greatly enjoy Gas Clouds: they can pre-action then just fly over them without any drawback.
    • One is fairly new to my mind, 5x Black Squadron Scouts with Trick Shot. The big reason is that I think they'll be able to leverage their Ailerons with the low penalties for flying over Gas Clouds. Plot maneuvers to really get your nose as close to a cloud as you can without going in, and you'll be in a great position.
  • Opponents can leverage the low-penalties, too. I feel like Maul loves Gas Clouds. Even with a great dial, large base ships are a lot more unwieldy than small-base, and having obstacles that don't have lasting penalties is powerful. Giving up an action to get a shot and better position is a pretty good trade. Part of a lot of Obstruction-Based strategies is that your opponent can't just fly at you; they'll need to go around the rock or debris. Gas Clouds remove that restriction from your opponent as well as yourself.
• So I think there are two kinds of obstruction-based strategies which might not hate Gas Clouds:
  • Those which can leverage the low fly-over penalties.
  • Ships which deny enemies some of the benefits of obstructed shots. Qi'ra, Outrider, Blackout, Midnight.
  • Might still be better to just bring Debris or whatever
• The biggest loser is probably Scum Han Solo.

To close it out, no TL,DR since it isn't really a recap, but more of a PS... I started this post out more in the "Yes TS, Yes Gas Clouds," but worked my way towards @MasterShake2 's position. I don't think I'm quite as extreme, but I did get mostly turned around on this.

2 minutes ago, theBitterFig said:

Some true things (well, close enough to true... I'm simulating Gas Clouds with a full evade token, rather than one which only works with blanks, because it'll be so much faster)

• Trick Shot obstructed shots with regular obstacles are a net damage benefit over non-obstructed shots
  • Just mathing out one scenario: 1.9 damage vs 1.5 damage with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
• Trick Shot obstructed shots over Gas Clouds are a net damage loss over obstructed shots
  • TS Gas Cloud: 1.053 vs non-obstructed: 1.531; with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
• Non-Trick Shot obstructed shots are a lot worse over Gas Clouds
  • With 3 focused red vs 2 printed green, Gas Cloud: 0.494 hits, vs other obstacles: 1.217 hits
• Trick Shot still has substantial damage added vs non trick shot obstructed shots
  • The damage added by Trick Shot vs No Trick Shot over Gas Clouds is typically around 70-90% of the damage added by Trick Shot vs No Trick Shot over other obstacles
    • 0.67 added over GC instead of 0.73 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 1 printed green
    • 0.5 added over GC instead of 0.7 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 2 printed green
    • 0.45 added over GC instead of 0.63 added over Other with 3 focused red vs 3 printed green

There's a bunch of things to think about.

• Trick Shot being at 70% effectiveness isn't too bad, if you're comparing TS and non-TS shots
• Obstructed Shots, instead of being a net benefit are a net negative to damage
• Obstructed Defense is a lot more valuable.
  • The obstructed shot strategy isn't only about extra hits, but about extra green dice for you
    • Gas Cloud Trick Shot Engagement: -0.5 damage dealt, -1.0 damage received, compared to a non-obstructed engagement
    • Non-Gas Trick Shot Engagement: +0.4 damage dealt, -0.3 damage received, compared to a non-obstructed engagement
  • Putting that together, a Trick Shot/Gas Cloud engagement is a bit worse in the total net shifts. Damage dealt goes down by 0.9 (+0.4 to -0.5), in exchange for an extra 0.7 reduction in damage taken (-0.3 to -1.0)
  • But the net difference is only -0.2 hits per engagement. Not so much that I'd abandon Trick Shot based strategies in the fear that an opponent might bring Gas Clouds, but enough that I don't want to bring gas clouds myself. Probably.
• It's possible to leverage the low penalties for flying over gas clouds. So maybe I do want to bring Gas Clouds?
  • There are two Trick Shot lists I've been thinking about lately.
    • The other is one I'd started thinking about a few weeks ago, simply because Starvipers are fun. Guri and 2x Black Sun Assassin, all with Advanced Sensors and Trick Shot. Advanced Sensors ships seem like they might greatly enjoy Gas Clouds: they can pre-action then just fly over them without any drawback.
    • One is fairly new to my mind, 5x Black Squadron Scouts with Trick Shot. The big reason is that I think they'll be able to leverage their Ailerons with the low penalties for flying over Gas Clouds. Plot maneuvers to really get your nose as close to a cloud as you can without going in, and you'll be in a great position.
  • Opponents can leverage the low-penalties, too. I feel like Maul loves Gas Clouds. Even with a great dial, large base ships are a lot more unwieldy than small-base, and having obstacles that don't have lasting penalties is powerful. Giving up an action to get a shot and better position is a pretty good trade. Part of a lot of Obstruction-Based strategies is that your opponent can't just fly at you; they'll need to go around the rock or debris. Gas Clouds remove that restriction from your opponent as well as yourself.
• So I think there are two kinds of obstruction-based strategies which might not hate Gas Clouds:
  • Those which can leverage the low fly-over penalties.
  • Ships which deny enemies some of the benefits of obstructed shots. Qi'ra, Outrider, Blackout, Midnight.
  • Might still be better to just bring Debris or whatever
• The biggest loser is probably Scum Han Solo.

To close it out, no TL,DR since it isn't really a recap, but more of a PS... I started this post out more in the "Yes TS, Yes Gas Clouds," but worked my way towards @MasterShake2 's position. I don't think I'm quite as extreme, but I did get mostly turned around on this.

I appreciate this as I tend to do far too much head math where I have to rough shorthand results. It's close enough, but it's nice to see the real numbers.

17 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

average expected results on 3 red dice with a focus is 2.25 hits, average evades on 3 green with a focus is 1.875, so .375 net damage.

Just so you know: that's not how maths works. You're not allowing for the occasions where roll evades > hits and just assuming every Evade you roll has a hit result to cancel. It's 0.6.

Use the probability calculator tools.

19 minutes ago, TheCeilican said:

Just so you know: that's not how maths works. You're not allowing for the occasions where roll evades > hits and just assuming every Evade you roll has a hit result to cancel. It's 0.6.

Use the probability calculator tools.

Kind of, but I originally came up with about the same number for obstructed debris, and obstructed clouds with trick shot and realized that I was factoring in the 75% of chance of rolling a blank on any of the three dice, which is actually incorrect because in the 25% where you don't roll evades you aren't losing anything because you just rolled a full string. In effect, I was penalizing the dice roll for rolling too high, so it was more accurate to shorthand a full 1 instead of .75 for the blank conversion of gas clouds. I also fully understand the "you can't do negative damage" problem that comes up a lot when shorthanding dice results for Warmachine, but that doesn't mean the shorthand is completely incorrect, just that it's slightly skewed low.

Head math isn't perfect, but it a useful baseline for analysis.

Except you're underestimating damage by close to 100% and making bad decisions off the back of it, so how good are head maths after all?