I wanted to look, not just at one specific interaction, but how to break down the value of game elements in general. Trick Shot and specifically it's interaction with the new gas cloud obstacle provides a useful opportunity to look at both how that upgrade derives it's value and why that value might diminish or be removed entirely by the inclusion of gas clouds.

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Let's start out by looking at how Trick Shot derives value in the first place. What has always made this upgrade valuable, if not generally a high pick, has been that it actually presents a mathematical advantage to the attacker when it's active. It gives you an extra attack die when making attacking an obstructed target. Since all current obstructions involve adding a green die to the defender's roll, the natural extension is to look at the relationship between red and green dice. The dice are functionally identical, but with the critical on red dice replaced with a blank on greens resulting in 1 less positive result and the green die being natively weaker than the red one. Assuming both the attacker and defender have the same dice modifications available i.e. a focus, trick shot will present a minor (12.5%) edge to the attacker. This is where Trick Shot has always derived it's core value, that is, you net benefit from firing an obstructed shot vs. and unobstructed one, thus turning a normal negative into a positive.

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To be clear, that benefit is pretty small and Trick Shot has never really been guaranteed because the positioning to get an obstructed shot often doesn't make sense (you probably don't want to point directly at a rock just to get that 12.5% increase). However, in 1.0 Trick Shot was 0 points and in early 2.0 it was 1pt making it a pretty easy inclusion unless you were using that slot for something better (which you probably aren't in 2.0 given how weak that slot is). When Trick Shot went up to 2pts, it's marginal benefit combined with the situational nature was enough to push it out of a lot of lists. It still shows up, but the frequency has gone down likely because if a player isn't building to use Trick Shot and therefore is only randomly benefiting 2, maybe 3, times a game, it's a harder sell.

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Now we have to talk about Gas Clouds. Gas Clouds add a green die to the defender like all the other obstacles, but they also change 1 blank result into an evade. This changes the math a lot and in some very interesting ways. Let's say you shoot at an AGL 2 ship through a Gas Cloud. Average expected results is 1.125 Evades, .75 focuses and 1.125 blanks. With a normal obstacle and a focus token, this is 1.875 evades on average. With a gas cloud, this number bumps all the way up to 2.875, almost an average of a full string. So let's do some quick math on attacks:

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Attack 3 ship firing at an AGL 2 ship and both the attacker and defender have a focus: Through a cloud with Trick Shot, average expected damage is .125, a clean shot with no gas cloud is 1

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So the baseline math has shifted away from favoring the cloud and not by a small amount, but lets ask a more interesting question. If your maneuver puts a gas cloud between you and your target (same target as before, AGL 2 with a focus and same attack 3), but a barrel roll can give you a clear shot, is it better to use you action getting a dice mod or rolling away for a clear shot and just throwing naked dice (assuming basically this is the last turn and you have to kill that ship to win)? Well, we'll use the previous number of .125 expected damage because that hasn't changed. Average expected evades on 2 dice with a focus is 1.25 and average expected damage on an unmodded attack 3 shot is 1.5, so you're still eeking out a minor edge just barrel rolling (.125).

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That's not all though. A common misconception is that, if you roll a hit on your extra die from Trick Shot, that you've at least cancelled out the gas cloud benefit, but this is completely wrong. A gas cloud has 2 effects 1) adds a die 2) changes a die. NOTE: the die being changed doesn't have to be the extra die that was rolled. Both of these effects can add an evade result that wasn't in the roll otherwise. For example, lets say your AGL 2 ship with a focus rolls an evade and a blank on defense, then you notice the attack is obstructed by a gas cloud, so you roll the other die and it turns up a focus. In this instance, the gas cloud has added 2 evades to the roll, first the focus result that you can turn to an evade and second the blank result that it also turns to an evade. You might think the odds of this result are low, but it's actually pretty common. On 2 defense dice, the odds of 1 or more blank results is about 61%, going up to about 75% or so on 3 dice. With a focus making the odds of a naturally positive result a 62.5%, you end up with about a 38% chance that an AGL 2 ship with a focus will add 2 evades to a roll through a gas cloud and a whipping 47.5% on AGL 3. Even if you don't have a focus, the odds of adding 2 positive results with a gas clouds is still about a 23% for 2 dice base and about a 28% for three, so still not as low as you think, roughly 1 in 4 unmodified defense rolls through a cloud will add 2 results.

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For me personally, this is what I would deem a hard counter. Unobstructed shots are just so much better than obstructed shots through gas clouds even with Trick Shot that it removes the primary utility of the upgrade. Considering that it was already a little situational to begin with and the minor points increase in the last update and, if gas clouds become big in the meta, I would have a hard time bothering. Just accept that shots through gas clouds (yours and theirs) are likely missing and set again for next turn instead of wasting the 2pts that could just as easily be spent on an upgrade like Predator.

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It always important when building a list, deck, character, whatever, to break down exactly how much different elements are really giving you in terms of value and also determine whether or not this added value hits the threshold of what you consider useful. for me, the argument that "my odds of this being useful are not 0" is just not strong enough. It has to present an advantage that's both compelling and consistent, but to each his own.

Intentionally making choices to choose an obstructed attack through a Gas Cloud in order to activate your Trick Shot isn't a great exchange.

But, shooting through a Gas Cloud with Trick Shot is better than shooting through a Gas Cloud without Trick Shot, so it can still be a useful upgrade to take.

The real question, though, is what EPT are you going to use if not Trick Shot? The vast majority of EPTs in 2.0 are pretty underwhelming and it's rare to find anyone running anything other than Trick Shot, Crack Shot, or Heroic. For better or worse, there some of the few EPTs that are cheap enough and potentially useful enough to justify investing a couple of points.

rigged cargo chute might be on the rise for trickshot scum players.

5 minutes ago, Da_Brown_Bomber said:

rigged cargo chute might be on the rise for trickshot scum players.

It isn't a staple already? I'm surprised.

Even on turrets and even when I try to, the general times I will use trick shot over the course of 3 games is 0. 1 shot in maybe 4 games.

Theoretically, can be useful, esp for turrets. In practice? Rarely.

You can just flip the argument on its head though. If you're trying to deal extra damage with Trick Shot then bringing gas clouds is daft.

But if you're planning to hide behind gas clouds for extra defence then Trick Shot will avoid your attacks being completely pointless.

I thought the value of trick shot was that you could hide behind obstacles to get the extra dice on defence and not lose out on your attack. As such I always see it as a defensive mod.

Why people are struggling so hard to define the gas clouds as a "hard counter" to Trick Shot is beyond me. There is no debating that, when shooting through a gas cloud, having Trick Shot is better than not having Trick Shot. It is true that firing through a gas cloud makes an attack less effective, but that statement is true regardless of whether or not the attacking ship has Trick Shot.

3 hours ago, Blail Blerg said:

Even on turrets and even when I try to, the general times I will use trick shot over the course of 3 games is 0. 1 shot in maybe 4 games.

Theoretically, can be useful, esp for turrets. In practice? Rarely.

Before the points increase, it was fantastically good on Resistance A-Wings.

Setting up a rear-arc trick shot with RZ-2s is ridiculously easy, and the number of times it triggers in a game when flying 5 A-Wings is typically well into double figures...

Personally I’m seeing gas clouds as a defence against swarms; ships with 2 attack dice are going to find it tough to push damage through on a ship that’s using one for cover!

The more I see people discussing trick shot and gas clouds, the more sure I am that two groups of people are having two entirely different conversations about them and just sort of accidentally talking past each other.

37 minutes ago, svelok said:

The more I see people discussing trick shot and gas clouds, the more sure I am that two groups of people are having two entirely different conversations about them and just sort of accidentally talking past each other.

Eh, the "Trick Shot better than not Trick Shot" arguement is faulty for me because most of the math says Trick Shot is superfluous, therefore you're basically taking the upgrade anticipating high dice. With that criteria, any upgrade useful, but that's just me.

4 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

Eh, the "Trick Shot better than not Trick Shot" arguement is faulty for me because most of the math says Trick Shot is superfluous, therefore you're basically taking the upgrade anticipating high dice. With that criteria, any upgrade useful, but that's just me.

The argument is all about the return shots. Entirely, fully about the return shots.

4 minutes ago, svelok said:

The argument is all about the return shots. Entirely, fully about the return shots.

Yes, I get the whole "but their shot is worse" thing, but your shot is still so bad that you might as well not bother and spend the points elsewhere or on a bid.

30 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

Yes, I get the whole "but their shot is worse" thing, but your shot is still so bad that you might as well not bother and spend the points elsewhere or on a bid.

A bad shot is still a shot. If you get a hit on the dice you add via trickshot, you're basically just taking an unobstructed shot. Even if you don't, as long as you have 2 hits, there's a chance to deal damage.

Trickshot isn't an upgrade you build a whole strategy around, it's just a solid cheap EPT that improves your weaker attacks. The only thing that 'hard counters' it are seismics, and even then it's not the end of the world.

It's probably best looking at specific cases. In a general assessment, voluntarily taking shots obscured by gas clouds if you've taken trick shot is a wierd call.

Yes, you'll do better than if you didn't have trick shot, but @MasterShake2 says, slightly more than bugger all may be better than plain bugger all, but it's still not exactly a winning strategy.

Which means deliberately pairing the two is probably not the best plan on your part.

Now, there are specific exceptions.

• A Modified TIE/ln goes from 2 dice to 3 dice, whilst an X-wing equivalent goes from 2 dice to 3-with-an-evade-token. That's gone from an unreliable shot to a nigh impossible one, so I agree - not a great combination - especially since Notched Stabilizers doesn't interact with gas clouds.

• Blackout, however, goes from 3 to 4 (or even 4 to 5 with torpedoes) and the same defender from 2 dice to....essentially a single automatic evade. Since Blackout (unlike turret ships) has trouble setting up trick shots without subsequently flying through the obstacle - and gas clouds have next to no downside for doing so - that seems like not a bad deal, by comparison.
• A YT-2400 Outrider , equally, gets 5 dice with a trick shot, and whilst the opponent still gets an evade token, 5 focused dice versus 2 defence dice - even double-modified - isn't too bad a shot.

Just now, Magnus Grendel said:

It's probably best looking at specific cases. In a general assessment, voluntarily taking shots obscured by gas clouds if you've taken trick shot is a wierd call.

Yes, you'll do better than if you didn't have trick shot, but @MasterShake2 says, slightly more than bugger all may be better than plain bugger all, but it's still not exactly a winning strategy.

Which means deliberately pairing the two is probably not the best plan on your part.

Now, there are specific exceptions.

• A Modified TIE/ln goes from 2 dice to 3 dice, whilst an X-wing equivalent goes from 2 dice to 3-with-an-evade-token. That's gone from an unreliable shot to a nigh impossible one, so I agree - not a great combination - especially since Notched Stabilizers doesn't interact with gas clouds.

• Blackout, however, goes from 3 to 4 (or even 4 to 5 with torpedoes) and the same defender from 2 dice to....essentially a single automatic evade. Since Blackout (unlike turret ships) has trouble setting up trick shots without subsequently flying through the obstacle - and gas clouds have next to no downside for doing so - that seems like not a bad deal, by comparison.
• A YT-2400 Outrider , equally, gets 5 dice with a trick shot, and whilst the opponent still gets an evade token, 5 focused dice versus 2 defence dice - even double-modified - isn't too bad a shot.

I'd totally agree that there are a handful of pilots/builds where shooting through a gas cloud makes sense, but they're certainly in the minority.

17 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

I'd totally agree that there are a handful of pilots/builds where shooting through a gas cloud makes sense, but they're certainly in the minority.

Agreed. For the most part, it'll be pilots who have the means to reduce the number of defence dice rolled; since gas clouds give you a free any-result-to-evade modification; great but irrelevant if you don't have a 'non-evade' dice to use it on (because Blackout, Outrider, Wedge or similar) or are otherwise unable to modify dice (because Midnight).

As best I can tell the expected damage of shooting through Debris without TS is the same as shooting through Gas Clouds with TS. It's 0.6 Damage either way (3 with Focus vs 2 Agi with Focus).

They just cancel each other out in terms of damage output but I get a free Evade back in defence.

It makes sense for anybody shooting through gas clouds to use Trick Shot. If you think you're only shooting through gas clouds twice in a game then TS almost certainly pays off its pints worth of incremental damage.

2 hours ago, CRCL said:

Trickshot isn't an upgrade you build a whole strategy around, it's just a solid cheap EPT that improves your weaker attacks. The only thing that 'hard counters' it are seismics, and even then it's not the end of the world.

I think this is the disconnect. Those who consider clouds a hard counter are trying to make Trick Shot the focus of their deck, and wanting every shot to go through an obstacle. Those of us who don't see the them as hard counters view Trick Shot as a contingency to help when a shot is obstructed, but not something to try to set up over a clear shot.

Mmm. I think gas clouds are something you can build a squad around, and when you do so Trick Shot makes a ton of sense.

I think Trick Shot is overrated in general, but it's affordable and there aren't very many good talents anyway.

1 minute ago, ayedubbleyoo said:

I think Trick Shot is overrated in general, but it's affordable and there aren't very many good talents anyway.

The EPT slot is just weak in general. There's a few exceptions like Juke on Defenders/Phantoms, but generally I don't think EPTs are worth their points except as filler. I find newer players fall into this trap of wanting to fill every slot (particularly the EPT) with something, rather than just saving points for an extra ship.

Trickshot is quite strong on Wedge and Blackout, but that's mostly because it synergies with their abilities. Even then I don't go out of my way to get obstructed shots with either pilot, except during the first engagement, when it's relatively easy to setup. Other than those two pilots it's a points filler upgrade.

If you are fighting with Han (pilot, scum, who basically needs trick shot) in a gas could environement, then having Qi'ra would definitly be worth it.

21 minutes ago, dotswarlock said:

If you are fighting with Han (pilot, scum, who basically needs trick shot) in a gas could environement, then having Qi'ra would definitly be worth it.

100% agree, even the 4 die shot when your opponent is adding a die and evade conversion on a blank is not impressive, but if you ignore the cloud and they don't, Han not only does a lot of damage, but becomes very hard yo kill.

1 hour ago, TheCeilican said:

As best I can tell the expected damage of shooting through Debris without TS is the same as shooting through Gas Clouds with TS. It's 0.6 Damage either way (3 with Focus vs 2 Agi with Focus).

They just cancel each other out in terms of damage output but I get a free Evade back in defence.

It makes sense for anybody shooting through gas clouds to use Trick Shot. If you think you're only shooting through gas clouds twice in a game then TS almost certainly pays off its pints worth of incremental damage.

average expected results on 3 red dice with a focus is 2.25 hits, average evades on 3 green with a focus is 1.875, so .375 net damage.

Average expected on 4 red with focus is an even 3, average evades on 3 green dice with a focus conversion is 2.875, so about .125 net damage.

In the first scenario, shooting through debris, you go all the way up to 1.125 hits for better damage than would've had on a clear shot and you still have the possibility of a full blank result allowing you to do more damage than normal. In the second scenario, it's almost impossible to get more damage than normal (Maybe Midnight preventing dice mods or all focuses when they don'thave/can'tspend a focus) and your average expected result in low enough as to not be noteworthy.