I have be to be a dissenting voice and state that in my opinion it is pretty obviously in the process of being discontinued, despite the widespread optimism.
As I point out a month ago there are no reprints scheduled in the Upcoming queue at all. This alone is an indication that the game is being dampened as there's no prospect of filling in out of stock expansions and FFG won't be generating any new income from it for at least six months. Because they don't sell directly on the webstore and only though secondary suppliers it should be assumed that there has never been any reason to hold much actual stock and most of it is in the distribution chain or on shop shelves. There was a brief restock for distributors at the beginning of the month but nothing to fill the gaps in the catalogue so it felt more like the distribution lines were being flushed out. People point to long product gaps in IA in the past and in other products (e.g. Descent 2) but during all those gaps there were always reprints in the upcoming queue. The current situation with IA is unique.
On top of this news articles have been nonexistent. Outside of OP and supporting skirmish maps we basically haven't had a product article for since August 2018. FFG may not be consistent but they are never negligent (or lazy) about promoting their active products through a semi-regular heartbeat of news articles. Even when they have nothing particular to say they do push out something regardless of how vacuous it is.
The release of the App campaign superficially looked like evidence of life in product but the failure to recommence printing (not even RtH or Leia) or make any announcement basically means that they are not going to and not wanting to make any money out of it at all. There are good reasons why they may still be pushing out campaigns in the App even when other areas of development and support have stopped. There may have been work in the pipeline delayed for two years while the software team were sidetracked onto other products that they just felt they should complete. But I think it is likely that when the licence was agreed with Disney it would have included a road map of the final product content - including the Big box starter campaign and maybe (at least) the large box expansions (two or three depending on whether HotE was in existence when the negotiations were finalised). And this road map is a contractual requirement, as the licencer won't want incomplete products on the market using their IP. Therefore FFG basically have to complete these App campaigns.
So all in all I think the App update adds only a little reason to be optimistic but the failure to promote it is a pretty strong indicator that IA1 is being killed off.
At the end of the day you need to put yourself in FFG's shoes and ask what would they do if they were going to pull a product like IA gracefully? My checklist (incomplete) would include the following items:
- Complete any contractual/licencing requirements. i.e. finish off App campaigns and push them out quietly.
- Continue to support OP for the current season (so as not to raise red flags prematurely).
- Stop reprinting the product and allow the current printing-distribution queue to empty.
- Stop promoting the product to dampen down the uptake by new customers who may aggrieved at not being able to fully buy into it.
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And eventually, after several months when stocks are more or less dry, make an announcement.
And steps 1) - 4) are looking very real at the moment.
Of course all of this is on;y relevant to IA version 1. There is a possibility that it is heralding the release of a version 2. But that's another topic...
Also I think it's a toss up that HotE is due for release on the App; very much dependent on whether it was included in the App licencing.
Plus it's Friday and there may be an announcement today that blows my entire thesis out of the water... 🙂