STOP JOUSTING!
This has been a mantra for me, and has dramatically increased my win percentages.
Jousting, in its simplest sense, has a tendency to be very volatile. Most of the players I see complaining about dice variance are also those committed to jousting. Thats because having an advantage in jousting efficiency alone doesn't give your list a win percentage needed to consistently make a cut in a long day of Swiss. From my experience, lists that aim to joust and are even advantaged in the joust against most/all of the field still go 3-3 or 4-2. This basically sums up my first regional season.
So if we want a reasonable shot at making the cut we have to do more than build an efficient list and fly at our opponent. We have to actually play the game of maneuvering. To set up optimal engagements in the early game when you aren't trying to joust requires anticipating the speed your opponent will move at and where their arcs will land. This will enable you to identify where the safe areas for your ships are. The goal is generally to force engagements where your opponent has minimal shots fired back on you (Its easy to be happy with your dice if you rarely have to pick up your green dice). Spreading your ships out and forcing your opponent to chase one while your other ships get behind their list is one approach. You can also drag them through the asteroids which can break up your opponents formation.
A good player won't make this easy for you and will often force you to commit before you would like. My goal in these situations is to minimize the impact of the first engagement. Because my ships are usually more spread out than my opponent's ships, my ships ships will have more options for the following rounds of engagement. This is something that players wanting to joust should also work on. Players like Blair make cuts consistently with jousters because they plan for multiple rounds of combat, before that first engagement takes place.
It's not the easiest thing, but when done right it puts the game in your control instead of your dice's control. Thanks for listening to the show Kempokid!