We waited a day for points. This will be our first round after the points adjustment and I'm already excited to see what people are playing. I know I'm behind on a ton of games but my internet has been out and I apparently lost my old wifi dongle. I'll get it back when I move on

https://challonge.com/yg9dgl3i

Previous Weeks: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d5qdUCoJIsEO62jrk4xP6jcXun890zEj

Alex Smittle: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Scum and Villainy&d=v5!h!97:121,-1:;89:133,-1,-1,43,-1,-1,-1,152:;93:-1,61,-1:;304:-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=
v
Duncan Howard: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!239:116,172,-1,-1:;244:-1,-1,-1,173,174,-1,-1,-1:;298:172,-1,-1,175,206,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed Squadron&obs=

Analysis: So Duncan has a bag of nice tricks but I think he's outgunned and out boardstated here. I also really love the suprise escape craft ability.

Prediction: Alex Smittle

Richard White: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!301:172,-1,-1:;301:172,-1,-1:;301:172,-1,-1:;301:172,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed Squadron&obs=
Andrew Bunn: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!h!239:172,124,-1,-1:;240:116,-1,-1,-1:;301:-1,-1,-1:;231:172,195,-1,175,-1,171,168:U.10&sn=New Squadron&obs=

Analysis: I will simply copy and paste a conversation Chris Allen and I had about my list when he mistakenly thought it was Bunn's:

Chris:"Lmao what is happening. Call him a moron for me, trick shot is stupidly better"

Me: "That's me. I'm the moron"

Chris: "Stop being a moron!"

I'm trying Chris.

Prediction: BUNN! BUNN! BUNN!

Tyler Tippett: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Galactic Empire&d=v5!h!217:132,-1:;218:132,-1:;222:-1,-1:;223:-1,-1:;221:-1:;229:-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=
v
Marcel Manzano:https://zacharyp.github.io/xwing/?f=Resistance&d=v5!h!239%3A172%2C115%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B240%3A172%2C133%2C-1%2C-1%3A%3B270%3A172%2C133%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B271%3A172%2C133%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B301%3A172%2C-1%2C-1%3A&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=&fbclid=IwAR2ikyQbwDCMZ9xPGDW4LGWF7WoL_WIfEKkKV5kkBCuClUe6zOlwlrizqlk

Analysis: Oh boy that one point bid... Marcel has a a maneuverablity advantage here in that he doesn't need to block up like the Howlswarm does. That being said There wil be a ton of simulfire so the Tie swarm is still going to get it's shots in. The longer this game goes the more likely that Marcel is to win, but if Tyler gets a good engage it could be over the first few rounds of engagement. I have to go with the years of tie swarm xp.

Prediction: Tyler

Paul Heaver: https://raithos.github.io/?f=First Order&d=v5!h!238:185,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,112,-1:;288:185,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,112,-1:;288:185,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,112,-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=
v
Billy Burncicle: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Rebel Alliance&d=v5!s!5:119,-1,-1,-1,142:;9:119,-1,-1,-1,142:;7:-1,-1,-1,142:;2:130,-1,-1,-1,142:&sn=Unnamed Squadron&obs=

Analysis: Oh wow, Will's Janky list didn't change points. Weird. I think he's dealt with Ups before so he at least somewhat knows how to deal with the puzzle.

Prediction: Will

Ryan Farmer: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!h!301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:-1,-1,-1:;301:-1,-1,-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=
v
Chris Allen: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!h!301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:133,-1,-1:;301:-1,-1,-1:;301:-1,-1,-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=

Analysis: This is not a Typo.

Prediction: Whoever wins the coinflip.

Travis Johnson: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Galactic Empire&d=v5!s!217:116,-1:;218:116,-1:;224:125,-1:;222:116,-1:;221:-1:;229:-1:&sn=TIE Swarm&obs=
v
Morgan Reid: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Galactic Empire&d=v5!h!173:-1,113,-1,105:;217:-1,-1:;218:-1,-1:;229:-1:;229:-1:&sn=New Squadron&obs=

Analysis: Not having the get out of dodge option is going to be a little rough for Vader, though he is the Ace here and hits like a truck. If Travis can concentrate fire overall I think he hits harder. Am I convincing myself that this is Morgan's first loss?

Prediction: Travis

Good Hunting!
Kelvan Tiberius

Bunn Bunn Bunn

You finally get around to playing rounds 6 and 7? 😋

That's 3 lists with 6 Awings. What is happening, how did we get such the dankest timeline.

1 minute ago, Hiemfire said:

You finally get around to playing rounds 6 and 7? 😋

Man I'm 4 games behind and just found out I'm out of Internet until at least Saturday. I'm very sad right now.

2 minutes ago, Kelvan said:

Man I'm 4 games behind and just found out I'm out of Internet until at least Saturday. I'm very sad right now.

That plus the points change... Ouch... Here's hoping you roll paint when you do get to play.

1 minute ago, Hiemfire said:

That plus the points change... Ouch... Here's hoping you roll paint when you do get to play.

I haven't won a game of Xwing in 3 months. I've had nothing but close games too. It's getting demoralizing.

4 minutes ago, Kelvan said:

I've had nothing but close games too.

Your making them work for their wins, that is big. Chin up man.

8 minutes ago, Kelvan said:

I haven't won a game of Xwing in 3 months. I've had nothing but close games too. It's getting demoralizing.

If you could get your internet together, you get one game of squad leader null to try and redeem yourself!

19 minutes ago, Kelvan said:

I haven't won a game of Xwing in 3 months. I've had nothing but close games too. It's getting demoralizing.

Not true! You did great at Missouriclorian, even with free morning beer!

12 minutes ago, Brunas said:

If you could get your internet together, you get one game of squad leader null to try and redeem yourself!

THE DREAM!

1 minute ago, gennataos said:

Not true! You did great at Missouriclorian, even with free morning beer!

Those were the last wins I got. That was a good run!

Well, I don't know if this will help or hurt, but assuming you had a 45% chance to win each game, the chance of losing five in a row is 5%. I mean, 19 to 1 isn't the biggest long-shot ever, so you're still in the "it could just be horrible luck" realm. (FWIW, it's approximately the same chance as someone rolling three natural evades on three green dice.)

Anyway, the good news is that the chance of losing five in a row goes up significantly if you make yourself worse than a 45/55 underdog in each match! For example, if you're a 30/70 dog in each match, you could lose five in a row, just on the variance, 17% of the time!

6 hours ago, Jeff Wilder said:

Well, I don't know if this will help or hurt, but assuming you had a 45% chance to win each game, the chance of losing five in a row is 5%. I mean, 19 to 1 isn't the biggest long-shot ever, so you're still in the "it could just be horrible luck" realm. (FWIW, it's approximately the same chance as someone rolling three natural evades on three green dice.)

Anyway, the good news is that the chance of losing five in a row goes up significantly if you make yourself worse than a 45/55 underdog in each match! For example, if you're a 30/70 dog in each match, you could lose five in a row, just on the variance, 17% of the time!

This isn't luck. Every game I can point to a mistake or two that I made.

Will these games be put on youtube/twitch, after the fact?

I really want to watch Morgan beat that TIE Swarm. And i have never tried Vassal. So not sure if there is some sort of option via that route.

Noticed the link for previous games. Take it you can look at those via downloading Vassal?

8 hours ago, Kelvan said:

This isn't luck. Every game I can point to a mistake or two that I made.

The "chance of losing X in a row" isn't a matter of variance inside the game. It's purely a matter of (overly simplified) consideration of your chances of winning each given game, all factors considered. (More like "all factors hand-waved, but that's sorta the same thing.)

3 hours ago, Darth Seridur said:

Will these games be put on youtube/twitch, after the fact?

I really want to watch Morgan beat that TIE Swarm. And i have never tried Vassal. So not sure if there is some sort of option via that route.

Noticed the link for previous games. Take it you can look at those via downloading Vassal?

First, Echo Base on youtube have been recapping Morgan's games... and only Morgan's games. But that's something.

Second - yeah, if you DL vassal, you can load the log files Kelvan posts, and use the "page down" key to spam through the actions (like watching in fast-forward).

3 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

First, Echo Base on youtube have been recapping Morgan's games... and only Morgan's games. But that's something.

Second - yeah, if you DL vassal, you can load the log files Kelvan posts, and use the "page down" key to spam through the actions (like watching in fast-forward).

Thanks. Appreciate it.

11 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

First, Echo Base on youtube have been recapping Morgan's games... and only Morgan's games. But that's something.

Second - yeah, if you DL vassal, you can load the log files Kelvan posts, and use the "page down" key to spam through the actions (like watching in fast-forward).

The People's champion.

21 hours ago, Darth Seridur said:

Will these games be put on youtube/twitch, after the fact?

I really want to watch Morgan beat that TIE Swarm. And i have never tried Vassal. So not sure if there is some sort of option via that route.

Noticed the link for previous games. Take it you can look at those via downloading Vassal?

Thats going to be a tough game against a quality opponent in Travis!

We are aiming to play this weekend - It should be a close game regardless of who comes out ahead. I'm just looking fwd to getting Vader on the Hyperspace table with reasonable support!