So what we know is most of it will probably be irrelevant in about 24 hours. And opinions below are pure conjecture, agreed beforehand. But that being said, looking at first day results, some things to see are;

Four undefeated squads;

1) Seevor-Ahab-Palob-Fenn; With a 192 bid, this list has Moldy Crow and Palob in it. Both of those could most likely get increased, nullifying the Rau bid advantage. Chance of this type of list surviving points adjust; 50% or so?---8 points increase between Palob and Moldy Crow is completely possible. Fenn not as good without deep bid.

2) Shotgun Dash; We all have known about this one. 193 bid. Moldy Crow and Trick Shot are both in it, but those two upgrades might not get enough of an increase between them (7) to still keep it off the table after tomorrow. Chance of this type of list surviving points adjust; 75% or so? This will be most interesting to see how FFG handles it.

3) 196 point Kagi / Sloane, Juke Whisper / Vader, 2 Barrage Bombers; A nice & simple mix of the varying Imperial meta elements. Handles torps alpha, has blocker 3 attack elements you can't ignore, unblockable damage and one of the best endgame ships. But there's upgrade smoke here to know it will probably not survive tomorrow points update fire and it will probably come in well over 200. Chance of this type of list surviving points adjust; 20% maybe at most.

4) 197 point Boba IG-D, Solo gunner / Moldy Palob / 2 Jakkus; The other prominent meta staple since 2.0's debut, 100% will not survive tomorrow. Buh-bye.

Snapshot opinions of a few of the remaining twenty 5-1 squads

5) 3 lists of quad Juke Sigmas; Edge case... Juke on its own is not bad. is it worth 5 points? Reasonably, yes. And there's an argument to be made Phantom chassis is undercosted across the board by 1-2 points. Between those two factors, could estimate 75% this list gets whacked.

6) 3 out of 5 top 24 Scum lists (Scum had 29% total faction representation) in this group have Boba Fett. We already knew he'd be prominent. One is 200 pt Escape craft / Fenn / 4LOM / Mux, the other is 200 pt Drea 2 TIE / 3 quad / escape craft swarm. The likely Quad price increase moves this list to the MG TIEs probably after tomorrow. there's room to dance here for this list to still be outstanding.

7) Only 1 First Order list makes the top 24, Boogeyman Tripsilons. Hard to gauge how this can be adjusted--pricing the Up chassis toward VCX-100 territory (which we can probably agree is overcosted itself) isn't enough to disarm it. Dormitz / Tavson abilities and Hyperspace Tracking Data are the glue, I suppose you could start there. there's 17 points that have to be made up. Dormitz / Tavs up by 3 each (which seems like a lot), Starkiller pilot by 2 and HTD up 3. That could do the trick at 200 enough to dissuade. But then again, this is the only FO list list in a group of 24 total lists (4.1% total of the top 24), and the faction needs some oomph. HTD basically would need to be costed to be almost unplayable. This is almost as interesting as Shotgun Dash to see how FFG handles it for the health of the game vs. NPE experience.

8 ) 3 Resistance in top 24 (8.8% total); two Poe L'ulo / Nien lists, and one Poe / Nien / Bastian. Protorps / PA is in all lists. This faction should pan out ok though even with the protorps increase as people work to git gud with HLC.

9) 8 of the lists in this group (37.5% of top 24 overall) are Imperial. 3 have Redline, a couple Squad of Legend, but there is a quirky 200 pt. Brath Defender / Zerik Strom / Jendon list in there. Very cool!

10) 3 Rebel lists sprinkled in rest of top 24 (16.6% faction representation total); a Moldy Jan Ors / Heff / Blount / Protorps Wedge, a naked Luke / AP5 (so underrated right now) / Trick Shot Wedge / Trick Shot Jan and Blair Bunke's typical jigsaw awesomeness of 2 blue Bwings, 1 blue x-wing, 1 tala z and a Cassian Andor Moldy Crow scout--the whole list is 200 points and initiative 2, because, well, Blair. Nobody Blairs It Better. Rebels currently on shaky ground, but hopefully only for another 24 hours.

These are all just opinions and observations on what is most likely vapor by this time tomorrow. Was just bored though and feeling analytical today. Apologies in advance if I made any mistakes here in this recap. Thanks for reading.

Good write-up. I second pretty much all of you observations. I'm hoping most of the adjustments are gentle. They probably won't be. Tomorrow points adjustments are going to create so much cringe.

Very nice analysis, do you know where I can see the whole lists?

11 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

Very nice analysis, do you know where I can see the whole lists?

They're pulling the info from List Juggler from what I understand.

Based on how dash steamrolled through the field to win nz nats this weekend it really needs some attention.

Han gunner likely goes up to 8-10pts.

Moldy Crow title probably going up but I'm hoping by not too much.

Redline for sure is far too cheap.

Vader crew may get a slight increase. It's just a bit too cheap.

Phantom chassis probably needs 1-2 point bump just so you can't play 4 with juke.

Jakku Gunrunner going up by at least 2pts.

1 minute ago, Da_Brown_Bomber said:

Based on how dash steamrolled through the field to win nz nats this weekend it really needs some attention.

Han gunner likely goes up to 8-10pts.

Rebel Han Gunner is 12pts if that is the one you're referring to.

4 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:

Rebel Han Gunner is 12pts if that is the one you're referring to.

Nope I meant scum Han crew. It's 4pts and needs to go up. Probably to about 10pts maybe a little more.

Dash Roark double tap 5 dice full mods. They may just errata. This needs immediate attention but it's just the abilities themselves.

1 minute ago, Da_Brown_Bomber said:

Nope I meant scum Han crew. It's 4pts and needs to go up. Probably to about 10pts maybe a little more.

Dash Roark double tap 5 dice full mods. They may just errata. This needs immediate attention but it's just the abilities themselves.

A simple change to Rebel Han Gunner stating "If you have not shot from that Turret Arc already" or "From a turret arc you have not already attacked from" would break it.

22 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

Very nice analysis, do you know where I can see the whole lists?

Best Coast Pairings App.

4 hours ago, Hiemfire said:

A simple change to Rebel Han Gunner stating "If you have not shot from that Turret Arc already" or "From a turret arc you have not already attacked from" would break it.

I'd love to see the FAQ "Rebel Han Solo (gunner) shoots first" so it breaks the combo

5 minutes ago, Deffly said:

I'd love to see the FAQ "Rebel Han Solo (gunner) shoots first" so it breaks the combo

That would work.

Any shot made outside of your native pilot initiative value should be considered a "bonus" attack. You get one bonus attack per round. The end.

8 minutes ago, viedit said:

Any shot made outside of your native pilot initiative value should be considered a "bonus" attack. You get one bonus attack per round. The end.

That does nothing for the dash build. Any additional attack is considered a 'bonus attack' anyway.

3 minutes ago, Deffly said:

That does nothing for the dash build. Any additional attack is considered a 'bonus attack' anyway.

I think you misunderstand. What @viedit is suggesting is that the baseline attack (not the Han Gunner attack) that Dash does at I7 count as a bonus attack because of Roark boosting him to engage at I7 instead of his normal Init. The Han gunner attack remains a bonus attack so Dash blows his 1 bonus attack per round doing his normal attack at I7.

1 minute ago, Hiemfire said:

I think you misunderstand. What @viedit is suggesting is that the baseline attack (not the Han Gunner attack) that Dash does at I7 count as a bonus attack because of Roark boosting him to engage at I7 instead of his normal Init.

Ok, I get ya then.

16 hours ago, Cloaker said:

2) Shotgun Dash; We all have known about this one. 193 bid. Moldy Crow and Trick Shot are both in it, but those two upgrades might not get enough of an increase between them (7) to still keep it off the table after tomorrow. Chance of this type of list surviving points adjust; 75% or so? This will be most interesting to see how FFG handles it.

The problem with this combo isn’t anything to do with Dash, It’s Roark.

Take Roark out of the equation and Dash is just as much in need of a points reduction as the majority of other large base ships.

Considering that one of the suggested goals of second edition was to get rid of abilities that adjusted pilot skill / initiative, Roark and Mux should have been either given new abilities or removed from the game...

I think 30 whispers and 25 redlines flown. Thats a huge chunk of lists.

The next FO list after the trip Upsilons is in the 50s. And that one is double Upsilons.

Resistance is doing fine, especially with the strength/cost of the T70s.

I am worried about First Order. They don't even do well in Hyperspace apart from trip upsilon which presumably will be hit at some point.

43 minutes ago, Kijaucey said:

I think 30 whispers and 25 redlines flown. Thats a huge chunk of lists.

That's actually lower than I did expect. November-December had a Punisher or a Phantom in half of the imperial lists. I did not expect these numbers to go down for a larger event.

I'll take a closer look at some time, but there were only 6 extended tournaments for wave2 with >30 participants, so not much to look at.

17 hours ago, Da_Brown_Bomber said:

Phantom chassis probably needs 1-2 point bump just so you can't play 4 with juke.

Why not increase Juke's cost? This EpT is far more effective than many others. I would be OK with a 6 points Juke - equal points with Outmanoeuver seems good to me.

The were about a thousand Uuupsilon lists in the hyperspace qualifier, including one that went 6-0

First Order's highest placing list without an Upsilon went 3-3

Res/FO were like half the lists that showed up

Rebel Falcon is good in hyperspace

Boba continues to be good in hyperspace

19 minutes ago, Giledhil said:

Why not increase Juke's cost? This EpT is far more effective than many others. I would be OK with a 6 points Juke - equal points with Outmanoeuver seems good to me.

Because it's just okay on ships that aren't Defenders and Phantoms. You might make it less of an autoinclude on this, but you'd turn it into an autoexclude on everything else.

+1 point for Sigmas, +6 points for Whisper; that's all that's needed.

15 minutes ago, Okapi said:

You  might make it less of an autoinclude on this, but  yo  u'd turn it into an autoexclude on everything el   se  . 

I think this is a valid point for quite a few of the upgrades that people are calling for points increases on. Even Proton Torpedoes are typically only a big problem on specific ships and/or pilots.

Yeah the problem is the ships not the upgrade. Look at the upgrades usage on chassis other then Phantom and Defenders and its not overly represented, if you up its points it will ONLY be seen on those two ship chassis and nowhere else.

Both of the chassis that currently abuse Juke have action economy enhancers that mean they get free evades for doing other things they were going to do anyways which means they are never making a choice to evade, its just happening.

That is the core problem, Defender has full throttle so any time it fully executes a 3+ maneuver it gets a free evad action and can then focus/lock or whatever other action it wants to do as its normal action. Slap juke on it and with a white 4K its a duelist monster.

Phantom has styguim array and when it decloaks it gets a free evade action and as long as it can keep its evade token recloaks at the start of the end phase, result is the same as the Defender above with the exception that if you can strip the evade token off of it you can at least break the cycle for a turn and force your opponent to have to chose to actually evade or re cloak to prime the pump again.

Its the specific evade action economy those ship chassis have that is making Juke slightly OP with them. Juke is pretty right everywhere else. Honestly I feel like the Phantoms Sigma Ace need a small 1-3 points increase to knock the 4 juke phantom list out and it will be fine, not exactly seeing Defender spam lists over running the meta as they are expensive enough as is I think. Sigma Ace with Juke are at 50 even, just a 1 point increase from 46 to 47 points on the ship will make it clock in at 51 and you cant have 4 of them any more, it would be 3 and something else alot less problematic most likely in the 47 points left over. Still probably a strong list as I think as alot of the Tie/Ln Aces and even some other generic ship types could fit in it.

My takeaway from the Hyperspace Qualifier yesterday.

Two lists went 6-0 in hyperspace.

Of those two lists, there were 7 ships. 5 of those ships were the same chassis.

Both lists had the same unique pilot.

All five of the ships of similar chassis had the same tech upgrade.

What were those ships?

2 x Dormitz

3 x Starbase Killer

5 x Hyperspace Tracking.

Houston, we got a problem.