7 minutes ago, MalusCalibur said:

Fair enough, yes. I can see how that would happen to certain ships, but is it actually impossible to avoid both shuttles having good opening shots on their chosen target? Is there no way to position yourself such that you can dodge one, mitigate the other? Their arcs are wide, for sure, but are still finite - surely there have to be blind spots in whatever advance they make that can be exploited?

Being as they're placed on the table after anything not I6, and after I6s depending on bid and first player, the Upsilon player can place to trap their opponent's key ships regardless of the Upsilon's opponents initial placement. It is the same reactionary power of information that high initiative ships and second player at same initiative have during a normal turn. It just happens during setup instead and is paired with Dormitz's change to the initial placement rules for their squad mates. Small based ships that can move speed 5 + boost (add in linked barrel roll for interceptors and Silencers), K-Wing's SLAMing, and speed 4 large bases with boost might be able to clear arc of the turn 1 salvo from the Upsilons, but only if the Upsilon player position's so they can.

The best suggestion I can come up with for you to understand this is place your favorite squad as would normally be done for setup. Then assess which ship or ships you would want to take out if you were facing that list and, focusing on catching that ship or ships in arc after your first turn maneuvers, place 3 large bases (with cardboard chits on them so you can see their front arcs) for the "opponent" (representing the Upsilons) as follows: Large base 1 turned 45deg with 1 corner touching the back edge of the playing area (this is Dormitz), measure out to Range 2 from the corner closest to the center line of the play area (east to west line) and place another large base making sure its closest corner to "Dormitz's" base corner is just inside range 2, repeat for the third "Upsilon" measuring from Dormitz as was done with the second base but don't overlap bases 2 and 3. Step back and take a look, then play out the first turn with both side aiming to win (don't forget the Upsilon token stack combo from both Hyperspace Tracking and initial Coordinated actions). Asses what you encountered and what we've been trying to tell you after that turn.

So what I hear people saying is that Boba and Beckett crew and Resistance Han now have a GREAT reason to exist.

I think setup shenanigans are good for the game

Edit: Not that I’m speaking from experience. I haven’t played against tripsilon yet

1 minute ago, ClassicalMoser said:

So what I hear people saying is that Boba and Beckett crew and Resistance Han now have a GREAT reason to exist.

I think setup shenanigans are good for the game

Oh shoot, Resistance Han just became a hard counter to an actual threat? 😂 just bring a bid that’s literally one point more than this Upsilon list is capable of, so you get to deploy after them.

8 hours ago, MalusCalibur said:

The diagrams were not especially useful in explaining the point or making at all clear the apparent mathematics that make avoiding the initial rush impossible.  The first didn't really show much of anything 

I honestly believed it to be self-evident from the images. Let me show you again, with commentary.

What does the first one show? Plenty!

• The two upsilons in front can move at an angle to get very good arc overlap. This increases the chance that a caught ship will be shot at by both ships.
• They will get far enough to cover every ship at the edge.
• They set up after their target, so they decide whether they get a shot. They will.
• They will be able to take lock actions even on ships that are all the way at the back, and even before they moved (the low I upsilons will likely move first), giving them a double modded shot.
• The shot will only stay R3 if the target ship stays at the edge
• A ship with 5s+boost can be caught by at least one upsilon.
  • how many ships have that and can start at the right position? For example, if you have 6 TIE fighters, then I guarantee you that not all can set up to evade both arcs. That's all it needs.
  • 5s and boost is btw available to 3 imps (v1, /D, interceptor) and 2 rebels (A-wing, E-wing), 1 scum (Fang), 1 resistance (RZ2), 1 first order (silencer). The yt1300s with 4s+large boost don't count because they are wider, so get still caught.
• A 4s+boost can be caught by both if the setup was correct. Every straight without boost is caught anyway.
• A 2hard +roll back won't get out of both. We can estimate that a 1hard + roll back might barely get out of one arc.
  • how many ships have 1hards + roll? 4 imps (interceptor, v1, /LN, phantom), 2 rebels (/LN, Awing), 5 scum (Fang, Kihraxz, /LN, M3A, starviper).
  • Only that one ship at that one position is able to do that! A ship setting up one base further right is already caught by both Upsilons in the front!

So you see, the first image could have shown you a lot. It's all there if you are willing to look and think about it.

Now what could you do? If you only had 2 ships, you could try to set up so that one will 5s+boost, and one will 1hard+roll. Let's say you have soontir and whisper.

Each will now get shot by just one upsilon. Whisper can get away. But here she would have used her action to roll, so at best she has a force to defend the shot and is expected to take 2 damage. Soontir has focus+boost, but he's stressed and will be caught the turn after. He's expected to take 1.297 damage but will die almost certainly the turn after.

Every other ship that does not have these maneuver options will be shot by two at the same time. A ship with roll+boost would get away if the upsilons don't focus on it. All it takes otherwise is to set up a bit more to the left for the upsilons. A 5straight+boost into the corner is a death sentence as he will get shot by two upsilons. At that point, Dormitz catches up.

And before you complain about a doctored setup: look at how easy it is to set it up: the left-most part of dormitz has to be at the same height as Whisper and she gets caught.

That was all for two ships only. If there is a third ship: tough luck, that doesn't have the same options and will get caught.

I acknowledge the fact that Tripsilion I a strong list, but I don't think it will win something else than Arizona Hyperspace last weekend.

Even for lists that initial fire exchange is unavoidable, it's enough for one capable ace to get behind those cows to be ahead in positioning game.

Tricks like 4 fwd + 4 kojogram with T70 will become popular, big base Falcons with white boost are almost uncatchable for Upsilons even if damaged in initial exchage, and some lists are able to be ahead in dmg race after initial exchage (Fenn, Teroch, Ahhav and something is even able to erase one Upsilon in 1st turn - not very likely but matemathicaly possible )

I'm not sure @Oldpara

First, I'm more interested in solutions that don't require specific counterbuilds.

Second, the Upsilons want to remove a ship and then survive until time. One is just 66pt or so, meaning it is rather easy to destroy something more expensive. That requires the opponent to destroy 1,5 upsilons, and that's not as easy anymore. So one ace behind them might not be enough

Third, I think you forget reinforce. Fenn, Teroch, Ahav plus something else with 4 dice can not possibly destroy one. Sure they bring 17 dice, but 2 evade tokens and reinfoce means that at least 6 damage will be prevented. That puts their max damage at 11 if they roll perfectly. And then you eat 1-2 five dice attacks, still double modified, plus Dormitz from range 3. That's almost the same amount of dice, but you have no reinforce and no 2 evade tokens!

13 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

I'm not sure @Oldpara

Third, I think you forget reinforce. Fenn, Teroch, Ahav plus something else with 4 dice can not possibly destroy one. Sure they bring 17 dice, but 2 evade tokens and reinfoce means that at least 6 damage will be prevented (...)

I think you forgot Old Teroch's ability

5 minutes ago, Oldpara said:

I think you forgot Old Teroch's ability

Indeed, I did. But that's again a counterbuild that has a chance. Maybe scum should include the best fang fighter even more often, but what about other factions? And what about players without a fang?

Old Teroch (56)
Crack Shot (1)

Skull Squadron Pilot (50)
Crack Shot (1)

Captain Seevor (30)
Crack Shot (1)

Ahhav (30)
Crack Shot (1)

Outer Rim Pioneer (28)
Tactical Officer (2)

Total: 200

This can erase 1 Upsilon in 1st go. Not bad Scum Hyperspace list overall

2 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

no scum

Fang.

1 minute ago, Hiemfire said:

Fang.

Thanks, edited.

Doesn't change the argument, but noted.

2 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

Thanks, edited.

Doesn't change the argument, but noted.

Not disagreeing with you at all. Just trying for accuracy.

1 hour ago, Oldpara said:

Old Teroch (56)
Crack Shot (1)

Skull Squadron Pilot (50)
Crack Shot (1)

Captain Seevor (30)
Crack Shot (1)

Ahhav (30)
Crack Shot (1)

Outer Rim Pioneer (28)
Tactical Officer (2)

Total: 200

This can erase 1 Upsilon in 1st go. Not bad Scum Hyperspace list overall

Nice, a counter build for a specific list. Now how well will it do against a Green Dragoon 4+1, a Poe/Nien +1, 4 I5's, Howlswarm, etc.

3 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

I honestly believed it to be self-evident from the images. Let me show you again, with commentary.

[Lots of text, cut for space]

Thank you, that is a lot more helpful, and I appreciate you taking the time to go through it all like that.
I wouldn't expect you to go through every possible example, so this is more of a rhetorical/discussion-promoting question, but is there no setup possible for the example you gave that leaves potential 'outs' for the Imperial player? The shuttles having overlapping arcs does make the overall area covered narrower, so it seems like it might be plausible. Though to be fair, the example you gave seems an unlikely one - Whisper and Soontir as the only ships in a list seems like setting oneself up for failure in the first place!

In any case, it certainly does seem as if certain ships are going to really struggle with this shuttle rush, which I have conceded as the case. However, it does seem like the list has a definitive hard counter in Resistance Han - and while I agree with you that 'counterbuilding' is not really a valid solution to a gameplay problem, it does strike me that such a complete counter (as opposed to just a more tricky matchup) will curb the popularity of the 'Dorm Storm' considerably, leaving it to be more the skew or gimmick list I imagined it to be. That isn't getting into other potential hard counters, either - certainly Poe (with the Black One title if not a bid) can easily escape the trap and likely has enough points/capability behind him to ensure the following fight isn't a total uphill struggle.

Again, this obviously isn't an ideal scenario and I had hoped that the points adjustment would make the perfect assembly of all the pieces in play here impossible, but while such total hard counters do exist we can hope that the Dorm Storm doesn't catch on and break the game in the way something like Triple Jumpmasters or Ghost/Fenn did.

Thinking on this further, will it perhaps promote more use of larger lists, comprised of generic pilots? Something like a TIE swarm, or generic T-70's, or 3X2Y (just a couple of examples) would be far less concerned with losing one ship - and for something like a T-70 or Y-Wing with a ton of health, even two fully modded 4-dice shots arn't guaranteed to remove it in one go (short of perfect results on all dice involved), and even if they do lose a ship it is a far smaller portion of their overall points and firepower that isn't as difficult to recover from. Four T-70's with Heavy Laser Cannons spring to mind also; tough enough to be unlikely to die in one go, and a lot of firepower (those shuttles arn't going to be avoiding the bullseyes) to throw back at them to even up the score - and once again, after that initial joust the shuttles become much weaker offensively and will have a much more difficult time lining up shots, particularly with more than one.

1 hour ago, MalusCalibur said:

but is there no setup possible for the example you gave that leaves potential 'outs' for the Imperial player?

Well, if you find one, please share it because I don't know of any without sacrificing a ship or without counterbuilding a list specifically for the matchup. My best solution at the time is to charge into the front upsilons and just take the single modified shot from Dormitz. That's the best thing I got.

1 hour ago, MalusCalibur said:

The shuttles having overlapping arcs does make the overall area covered narrower, so it seems like it might be plausible. Though to be fair , the example you gave seems an unlikely one - Whisper and Soontir as the only ships in a list seems like setting oneself up for failure in the first place!

I'm sorry, but you are irritating me. The example I gave was only to demonstrate 1hard + roll, or 5straight + boost. Those are the best possible choices for a ship with the best chance to evade at least one attack. The only exception is 1hard + roll + boost, or 5s + boost + roll, that is better and can be done by Interceptors, Silencers and both A-wing versions, from the top of my mind. That is a negligible amount of ships and too specific for discussion on how to play against Tripsilons. And even then, only 2 total can pull it off, because there is not enough space for a third ship to do the same. That third ship will get caught. So naturally the Tripsilons will take that one out.

It was only to show you how 1hard + roll or 5s + boost does not evade both arcs, and that it even only barely evades one. Keep in mind that almost any other combination of ships has worse maneuvers for most factions. In that sense, this example was more fair than most other possible ones.

1 hour ago, MalusCalibur said:

In any case, it certainly does seem as if certain ships are going to really struggle with this shuttle rush, which I have conceded as the case. However, it does seem like the list has a definitive hard counter in Resistance Han - and while I agree with you that 'counterbuilding' is not really a valid solution to a gameplay problem, it does strike me that such a complete counter (as opposed to just a more tricky matchup) will curb the popularity of the 'Dorm Storm' considerably, leaving it to be more the skew or gimmick list I imagined it to be. That isn't getting into other potential hard counters, either - certainly Poe (with the Black One title if not a bid) can easily escape the trap and likely has enough points/capability behind him to ensure the following fight isn't a total uphill struggle.

I think you again missed the point. Han or Poe won't be alone on the field. Maybe you make a Han-Poe list, sure. But basically every other list has at least one ship that is not able to escape. That's all the Tripsilons need. Because their strategy is not to table you. Their strategy is to bite off some points and then hold onto them for 75min. Your not-Han or not-Poe of your list will be destroyed turn 1. Oldpara showed a nice example with Teroch where you can maybe take out a ship turn 1. But most other lists can't try that, not remotely.

If you think that counterbuilds will become more frequent then we just have different opinions

I'm horrible at estimating distances; how does a Gunboat SLAM fare?

Triple Upsilons are powerful. And yes, to all intents and purposes, a ship of your opponent's choice will be taking 2 focus/locked 4-dice attacks in the first turn.

There are exceptions, and there are squads which don't care, but you need to plan for this squad. That doesn't mean "tailor your squad to beat it" but "decide what the heck you're doing when you come up against it".

Scum:

I think there are worse things than a bunch of fangs generally when looking at hyperspace options. Three elite fangs will take some beatings from a lot of lists, but Their reposition/link/focus makes them not far behind the silencer in their ability to dance, and if TIE swarms, Y-wing veteran gunner squad, and A-wing swarms (i.e. 2-dice attacks en masse) are likely to be a thing, Concordia Face-Off is awesome, and Old Teroch's ability is good at more than just dealing with upsilons. More to the point, in this matchup, Fenn/Teroch/Someone Else can pick a shuttle, close and kick its teeth in. Shorn of green tokens, Fenn & two wingmen can come within a point of damage of erasing an upsilon with "just" focus/fearless range 1 shots (assuming they ended up at range 2 and had to boost to get range 1. If they managed to land range 1 naturally and can lock and fire advanced proton torpedoes, it's bye-bye, Batman.

Empire:

I think the statement 'invalidates the Imperial Faction' is a bit overreaching. What it does do is seriously, seriously hammer anyone wanting to field imperial Aces . Most of them, however, fall into the "can do a speed 5 straight and boost" category, and have enough green dice that a single 4-dice attack isn't likely to kill them (but will hurt them!).

However, the Empire does a nice line in swarms and heavy swarms too, and whilst they probably will lose a ship to the alpha strike, losing 2 is bad luck.

The big tactical mistake I can see is setting up a Howlrunner swarm in a 7-ship block and flying straight at the guns. Howlrunner's ability is nice, but you don't need it for TIE fighters to work. Spreading out a TIE swarm across some or all of your setup area means that if the Upsilons set up as described, and your squad pulls a speed 5 straight and evades en mass, you're basically flanking them on both sides with multiple ships on turn 1. Granted, it sucks to be the lucky individual directly in front of them, but if you wanted guaranteed survival, the Imperial Navy TIE Pilot Corps was the wrong career choice. Besides which, Even 2 4-dice attacks is far from a guaranteed kill on Iden Versio or anyone she's protecting, because it means the first upsilon to fire must one-hit-kill her (if it doesn't, she can spend her charge against the second one and it doesn't matter how much damage is rolled).

And Heavy Swarms can fly savvy to. With the drop in price of Afterburners, TIE Strikers can turn up in a 5-ship squad and still equip afterburners universally. Chaining together Banks and Straights Speed 1/Speed 3/Speed 1 and still being able to roll afterwards means even the Hyperfreaks might have trouble getting a bead, and since they move first the Upsilons have to choose between stopping (and being stressed, having their arc nailed to a given position known to the Imperial player when dials are set, and unable to use their speed 1 turn next round) or risk bumping their target and losing the ability to fire at the closest target.

TIE/x1 squads....if it's 5 tempests, I dunno. 3 green dice covering 5 hit points makes killing one not easy, but two focus/locked 4-dice attacks should do it. I think the best thing I can suggest is not trying to lock the first round. Yes, that buggers your offensive power massively but with focus, evade, evade, reinforce, 6 shields, Tavson's ability and whatever other bull-faeces the First Order can devise, you weren't going to hurt them anyway . Getting past the front two ships, and increasing the (slim) odds of your fifth ship surviving doing so, is priority number 1, and your ability to barrel roll/link/focus is probably crucial here. 4 Storm Squadron Specials, of course, can have afterburners, so can - if not dodge all incoming fire - at least be in a situation where any one ship is only being shot by one upsilon, which is a survivable experience - 4 green dice with focus & lock versus 3 green dice with focus and 5 hit points.

Rebels - I dunno. Someone else can tell me how that's likely to go. The only squad I really have much though about is Luke/Garven/Biggs, since that's what a friend uses. since he's recently given them an overhaul to give Garven and Biggs both R2 astromechs and shield upgrades, and Garven has Selfless, 'smearing' out the damage means they can probably make it through the guns of the front two without losing a ship.

7 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

Their strategy is to bite off some points and then hold onto them for 75min

To stress this point, I ran the probabilities through the dice calculator on my entire list doing damage to a single Upsilon in that first round of fire. My list has three 3-dice attacks, plus a Y-wing that can double tap with ion (so another 2 red, and a 3 red ion) vs an Upsilon with reinforce and a token stack... expected damage was like 3.34.

That's a lot of deflected damage for a one green agility ship.

I can likely survive turn one with all my ships alive, but they aren't going to be in a happy state. Further, mine don't move like Interceptors so the chances of getting pinned in those arcs for another turn are quite high.

6 minutes ago, JJ48 said:

I'm horrible at estimating distances; how does a Gunboat SLAM fare?

Straight at them, 3 straight/SLAM/3 straight is the same as a speed 5 straight and boost - good but not quite enough if they stop, enough if they move.

The biggest edge of a Gunboat, though, is the option of chaining 2 speed 3 banks together, which is easily fast enough to escape if you outguess the shuttle's move.

Add in Vynder's extra green die whilst SLAM-ing and the option of afterburners, and a gunboat ace which decides "not today, thank you" can easily break past them. The generics are going to have to work for a safe spot, but again, with 7 hits and agility two, one upsilon shot - even at range 1 - isn't going to kill you, and if you've got XG-1s packing ion cannons, those shuttles are going to have a lot of trouble turning around again.

3 minutes ago, Magnus Grendel said:

Straight at them, 3 straight/SLAM/3 straight is the same as a speed 5 straight and boost - good but not quite enough if they stop, enough if they move.

I was wondering more about a 3-bank left/3-bank right sort of maneuver.

5 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

To stress this point, I ran the probabilities through the dice calculator on my entire list doing damage to a single Upsilon in that first round of fire. My list has three 3-dice attacks, plus a Y-wing that can double tap with ion (so another 2 red, and a 3 red ion) vs an Upsilon with reinforce and a token stack... expected damage was like 3.34.

That's a lot of deflected damage for a one green agility ship.

I can likely survive turn one with all my ships alive, but they aren't going to be in a happy state. Further, mine don't move like Interceptors so the chances of getting pinned in those arcs for another turn are quite high.

This. I think the point is that trying to engage them on the first turn isn't a great plan with anything , because the sheer toughness of that token stack makes them nigh untouchable. Obviously, less manoeuvrable lists don't have an option not to, but even there your goal is to minimise punishment on turn 1 however you can. Avoiding shots is hard - @GreenDragoon is quite right about that - but getting range 3 shots isn't impossible, and they're much more survivable.

6 minutes ago, JJ48 said:

I was wondering more about a 3-bank left/3-bank right sort of maneuver.

Straight at them, again, it's essentially a 5-straight-and-boost but this time with a speed 2 'sideslip' thrown in.

If they set up facing you head-on, then you can dodge the arc if they don't anticipate it. If they 'bracket' you with one upsilon on either side, then whichever one you sideslip towards will be in the same situation as if you went straight - it'll get a shot if it stops, not if if moves.

It's a good option, only slightly messed up by the fact that the XG-1 isn't legal at hyperspace format events. It's a perfectly viable option in extended, though.

The 'Baby Blues' thread also made some suggestions about either BB Astromech/Tractor Beam or R2 Astromech/Jamming Beam T-70s. I find myself wondering how a quartet of Blue Rookies might do; one X-wing firing its jamming beam could take a big bite out of the token stack, but I'm not convinced it could cut through to the reinforce token (which is the one that matters). Meanwhile, tractoring the shuttle at a stroke knocks out everything except the reinforce token, since focus or evade means nothing if you're not getting any green dice to roll.

1 minute ago, Magnus Grendel said:

Straight at them, again, it's essentially a 5-straight-and-boost but this time with a speed 2 'sideslip' thrown in.

If they set up facing you head-on, then you can dodge the arc if they don't anticipate it. If they 'bracket' you with one upsilon on either side, then whichever one you sideslip towards will be in the same situation as if you went straight - it'll get a shot if it stops, not if if moves.

It's a good option, only slightly messed up by the fact that the XG-1 isn't legal at hyperspace format events. It's a perfectly viable option in extended, though.

Just don't telegraph it @JJ48 - the shuttles get a choice on their dials too, and if they expect you to slam out of the gate they can spin their dials to compensate. This is certainly an advantage to you, and gives you a coin flip chance they guess wrong, but they can still guess right.

6 minutes ago, Magnus Grendel said:

but getting range 3 shots isn't impossible, and they're much more survivable.

This is my current line of thought actually. Try to keep things at range 3 for turn one, limit the shots to one if possible. I've got two very different competitive lists, and both seem to be heading to this point. Turtle up and try to weather the storm.

1 minute ago, Magnus Grendel said:

but getting range 3 shots isn't impossible, and they're much more survivable. 

Yes, but I think it is very hard to get only range 3 shots against your whole list. That's the first crux.

I tried different ideas for 5 Awings, and the chance to lose one is at 41% at best if both upsilons fire. Splitting in a way that only one can shoot is nearly impossible though! If you take the image with soontir and whisper: as soon as there are several ships next to each other, the Tripsilons have to pick the correct one and will get double shots. That shift between conceptual approach and actual game can be a bit confusing, but it's important to always go back to the actual game. And there it shows that I can't get out with all 5. And that is - as previously said - all the Tripsilons need.

37 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

Just don't telegraph it @JJ48 - the shuttles get a choice on their dials too, and if they expect you to slam out of the gate they can spin their dials to compensate. This is certainly an advantage to you, and gives you a coin flip chance they guess wrong, but they can still guess right.

So, it's a game of wits, is it?