"But muh dice!!!", or, how I learned that computers can be as dumb as we are

By PaulRuddSays, in X-Wing

3 hours ago, thespaceinvader said:

Not that useful, given that you haven't any control over what is drawn from it and when*

*obviously, in some cases you do, and in those cases, it's potentially useful but the benefit is very rarely worth hassling over.

Cards on dead ships go to the discard pile which is public information, even though players rarely take advantage of that fact

Knowing that all of the Direct Hits have been drawn, for example, might significantly affect a token-spending decision

It's not that it isn't worth it to do, it's that pretty much every player (myself included) just doesn't bother

Edited by RampancyTW
21 hours ago, bydand said:

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or finally having that "Ah hah!" moment when you realize Heroic is actually a terrible card.

No sarcasm, totally genuine. I know it's only 1 point but so far it's been wasted points every time.

Edited by Just Paulos
21 hours ago, bydand said:

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or finally having that "Ah hah!" moment when you realize Heroic is actually a terrible card.

I don't want to derail the thread, but I'm also very curious.

Why is heroic a terrible card? What is it terrible for? Are there cases/uses where it is not terrible?

20 hours ago, PaulRuddSays said:

It’s actually not true that overkill is wasted. It actually benefits your opponent a slight amount, counterintuitively. It’s a variation on the Monty Hall problem, which is legitimately interesting on its own. Highly recommend that you look into it and think really hard about it.

Edit: the corollary to the above is that, if your opponent kills your ship and you could spend a focus/evade/force to reduce the number of cards dealt... don’t.

The Monty Hall scenario only applies if crits are dealt right? You don't know if the overkill damage cards are "cars" or "goats" and therefore cannot draw any conclusions about probably of drawing specific remaining crits.

Since the face up cards are open information, both players benefit. Whether one player benefits more is situational.

1 minute ago, radon86 said:

The Monty Hall scenario only applies if crits are dealt right? You don't know if the overkill damage cards are "cars" or "goats" and therefore cannot draw any conclusions about probably of drawing specific remaining crits.

Since the face up cards are open information, both players benefit. Whether one player benefits more is situational.

Yeaaaah this is more where I was leaning as well. From my understanding, you guys are saying that after a ship is removed you may look at the crit side of all of those damage cards? Is that a for-sure thing...?

5 minutes ago, SpiderMana said:

From my understanding, you guys are saying that after a ship is removed you may look at the crit side of all of those damage cards? Is that a for-sure thing...?

Yeah. When a ship is destroyed, all the damage cards are discarded. Discards are open information.

As an aside, if somebody is good enough to legitimately makes decisions based on the incredibly tiny edge that knowing X specific criticals have been dealt provides ... they are also good enough that they don't actually need that information.

I'm really, really good at math-on-the-fly during X-Wing, and I only look at discarded damage cards out of idle curiosity.

Edited by Jeff Wilder
7 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

Yeah. When a ship is destroyed, all the damage cards are discarded. Discards are open information.

As an aside, if somebody is good enough to legitimately makes decisions based on the incredibly tiny edge that knowing X specific criticals have been dealt provides ... they are also good enough that they don't actually need that information.

I'm really, really good at math-on-the-fly during X-Wing, and I only look at discarded damage cards out of idle curiosity.

That'll be why casinos are thrilled when people count cards then.

3 minutes ago, SOTL said:

That'll be why casinos are thrilled when people count cards then.

If card-counters in casinos were counting something less than 33 cards, and making decisions off of that, casinos would not give a #$%@ about card-counters.

The biggest impact you will have on a game of xwing by looking at discarded damage cards and attempting to alter your decisions thereby will be to waste time. That wasted time itself can have a big impact, but it could either a) hurt your chances of winning or 2) convince your opponent that you're a jerk.

Kylo has a legit reason for doing so, I suppose, but even that best case is marginal and probably washed out by the greater impact of wasting time.

Even if all cards were known at all times, it would only have a small impact on your decisions. You need to spend more time thinking about your maneuvers and actions and stuff.

I didn't realise counting to 5 was so challenging for you people.

Allot of people need to read the "Damage Cards" section of the Rules Reference it seems. There is no "discard pile". All damage cards are left on the ship's card and stay there until the damage deck runs out, at which time they are shuffled into the deck. The face down damage cards can only be looked at if an ability specifically states to do so and at NO OTHER TIME DURING THE GAME...

2 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:

Allot of people need to read the "Damage Cards" section of the Rules Reference it seems. There is no "discard pile". All damage cards are left on the ship's card and stay there until the damage deck runs out, at which time they are shuffled into the deck. The face down damage cards can only be looked at if an ability specifically states to do so and at NO OTHER TIME DURING THE GAME...

This is definitely more where I was at.

12 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:

Allot of people need to read the "Damage Cards" section of the Rules Reference it seems. There is no "discard pile". All damage cards are left on the ship's card and stay there until the damage deck runs out, at which time they are shuffled into the deck. The face down damage cards can only be looked at if an ability specifically states to do so and at NO OTHER TIME DURING THE GAME...

Good catch. Yeah, that's a change from 1E that I didn't parse. Yet another way in which I'm a big ol' X-Wing cheater.

4 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

Good catch. Yeah, that's a change from 1E that I didn't parse. Yet another way in which I'm a big ol' X-Wing cheater still adjusting.

😀

That is a change from first edition.

The biggest gain for me was with Kylo, knowing whether you were blowing his ability to choose a pilot crit you didn't want. (Most specifically in 1.0 with Kylo crew)