And We’re BACK with some Hot Aces League Action! Back on a weekly schedule over the holidays. Game is still open for everyone, even me win out.

(Ron Howard Voice) “Kelvan did not win out.”

Challonge: https://challonge.com/yg9dgl3i

Previous week’s games: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1d5qdUCoJIsEO62jrk4xP6jcXun890zEj

Week 6:

Marcel: https://zacharyp.github.io/xwing/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!239%3A116%2C172%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B240%3A116%2C172%2C-1%2C-1%3A%3B270%3A116%2C172%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B271%3A116%2C172%2C-1%2C186%3A%3B300%3A116%2C172%2C-1%2C-1%3A&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=&fbclid=IwAR12Xw5F-n7e1juzI-CaHa_6iHnCKCs5aYwD_Mu29aAhOZBrtmf26oNHLso
V
Bunn: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Scum%20and%20Villainy&d=v5!h!95:-1,-1,-1:;97:121,-1:;103:-1,-1,-1,54,-1,-1,-1,153:U.85&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: This is a mad scientist vs an efficient engineer. I love the new A wings, I think they’re competitive without being broken. Still I don’t think they can deal with Boba and Fenn. I hope I’m wrong.

Prediction: BUNN! BUNN! BUNN!

Travis: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!h!231:133,5,-1,175,-1,171,169:U.136;298:172,-1,-1,175,206,-1,169:U.136;239:172,133,-1,-1:&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=
V
Smittle: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Scum%20and%20Villainy&d=v5!h!97:121,-1:;103:-1,-1,-1,54,70,96,165,153:U.85&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: So alex has board knowledge which will help Fenn and Boba avoid torps and will help bombs Boba has ready. It really does dicey situation to rely on such few ships but I think Alex can pull this off.

Prediction: Smittle

Morgan: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!231:172,5,-1,175,-1,171,-1:;258:-1,-1,175,-1,-1,-1:;239:133,172,-1,-1:;240:133,-1,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=
V
Tyler: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Scum%20and%20Villainy&d=v5!h!103:133,-1,-1,54,69,-1,-1,153:U.85;97:121,-1:;95:-1,61,-1:&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: Morgan is his own meta. He flies whatever and wins. I love that he added an extra xwing to run 4 ships as I think there’s some design room there. I think this is a match that Boba likes, the more ships the better, but it isn’t one for Fenn. As Poe will be able to hunt Fenn and be patient with Boba I think Morgan can continue undefeated.

Prediction: The People’s Champion Morgan Reid

Chris: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Scum%20and%20Villainy&d=v5!h!97:-1,-1:;102:-1:;102:-1:;102:-1:&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=
V
Ricky: https://raithos.github.io/?f=First%20Order&d=v5!h!290:131,-1,-1:;266:116,-1,-1:;262:116,-1,-1:;261:-1,-1:;243:116,-1,-1,182,-1,-1:&sn=New%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: We’re both frauds.

Prediction: Chris

Duncan: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!300:172,116,-1,-1:;300:172,116,-1,-1:;300:172,116,-1,-1:;300:172,116,-1,-1:;296:-1,-1,-1,186,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=

V
Will: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Rebel%20Alliance&d=v5!s!5:119,-1,-1,-1,142:;9:119,-1,-1,-1,142:;7:-1,-1,-1,142:;2:130,-1,-1,-1,142:&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: I actually quite enjoy Will’s list and playstyle. There’s something fundamentally sound about how Will plays that I often wish I could replicate in myself. I do think that Duncan has a good list to joust into the Rebel 4 ships so I’m curious how this will end up. It’ll be a fast game though.

Prediction: Duncan

Farmer: https://raithos.github.io/?f=Resistance&d=v5!s!231:133,195,-1,175,-1,171,170:U.102;298:172,-1,-1,175,206,-1,169:U.136;239:172,-1,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=

V
Paul: https://raithos.github.io/?f=First%20Order&d=v5!s!233:181,186,-1:;262:-1,-1,-1:;263:-1,-1,-1:;237:133,178,-1,-1,-1:&sn=Unnamed%20Squadron&obs=

Analysis: Farmer pulls out a triple resistance list, pretty standard. Paul was looking to check out a non Kylo silencer. His hope is Midnight preys on Poe and the rest of his list can deal with Nien and Lulo. Without board knowledge it’ll be quite a bit harder. I feel weird thinking about this prediction.

Prediction: Farmer.

Good Hunting,
Kelvan Tiberius

Good luck against Brunas.

1 hour ago, Hiemfire said:

Good luck against Brunas.

Hey, who's side are you on!?

9 minutes ago, Brunas said:

Hey, who's side are you on!?

Both?

It's fascinating to me to see two 4-5 awing lists that seem to be so... wrong . I wonder what the reasoning behind is.

Marcel has optics on Lulo who does benefit the same (+0.3 expected damage), but is also a defensively much worse. The main difference is that it allows Lulo to punch more damage through a high agility target. However, that is not a good point because it is a (mini)swarm that strips tokens. Several 2hit attacks provide more difficult choices than 1 weak and 1 strong attack. The math shows that it does not actually matter for 5 attacks against 2agility+focus ( Lulo optics , another one optics ), and the basically same, very small difference for 3agility+focus (0.05 damage). However, because they are all basically the same result we can look at other differences. Lulo has 2 greens most of the time, and is more expensive. The former means he has to be more careful with spending his focus, the latter means he has to be careful with adding additional points or he becomes the undoubted first target that he is anyway. But being removed first also means he will benefit less from the upgrade, and giving him more points means you reward your opponent more for a choice he will take anyway.
Also, Crackshot instead of Trickshot just works worse. Both are probably worse than an additional optics on another ship, too.

Or Duncan, again with Crackshot instead of Trickshot. And not even optics, which is questionable at best because the offensive output drops massively by one damage per turn on average (a 25% drop of dealing 2 instead of 1 damage).

On 1/8/2019 at 3:26 PM, Hiemfire said:

Good luck against Brunas.

I need all of it with this streak I'm on. Honestly I thought I was lowballing myself with my initial over/under of 3 wins. Now I just hope i get one.