Why Predictive Shot May Possibly be OK

By Hoarder of Garlic Bread, in X-Wing

A TIE Adv Prototype with a focus eyes a 3 agility ship that miraculously landed in its bullseye, tokenless [tokenless is the big idea here, as the ability is garbage if they have an evade token]. Despite the token on offense, it does not look all that good, as there is a 52% chance that this shot will not land at all. Spending the force in this edge-case (which can be expanded to different edge-cases), the odds are made significantly better, as now there exists only a 28% that the shot does not land. It also seems a bit handy at the impossible range 3 shots: 65% chance of not hitting turns into that magical 28%. It doesn't matter how many dice they roll, as they can be a cloaked phantom behind a rock at range 3 with a stealth device: the odds rest primarily on your dice, giving you that 28% chance of no hit on a 2 die roll .

"But the TIE Adv Prototype will never catch anything in its bullseye!" you exclaim. "Generic Inquisitors are not meant to be used that way and there are better uses of points than the named Inquisitors, and even then, better force talents!"

Yes, but like Hate [see Darth Maul in his 1 agi Sith Infiltrator that burns up those 3 force for bonus shots], they were never made for this meta. "Begin, the Clone Wars will."

There will be a faction known to be highly-affiliated with powerful force-users. And their nimble, high-initiative ships have a TIE Striker-esque ability that drastically reduces the value-but not the cost-of Supernatural Reflexes on them. And despite the fact that they have only 2 dice in the stock form, they have pilot abilities and modifications that encourage bullseye-lining. Don't be complaining when they punch in the damage, for without mods or the buckets of greens you were dropping, your ships will bleed.

TLDR: yes, laugh at my defense of the creation of the seemingly-useless Predictive Shot. But "Midnight" the faction assuming that their friends strip the green tokens or that said tokens are used on offense or saved for bigger threats, etc. etc. is incoming. And when Soontir gets sniped by a R3, Stealth, Rock shot by a Jedi with a focus, this time it will no longer be that legendary fluke.

Edited by player3010587

I think predictive shot will be awesome on the aethersprite, especially if you want to keep it super cheap and not use either of its modifications.

i think they will be a lot of fun to fly!

Edited by ObiWan

We must find another guy with an Obi profile pic to join the post. Rally the Kenobis!

Just changed my profile pic, so I could post here and make this the new Gunboat thread.

Also, I like my new profile pic ;)

I'm doubtful it'll see much play at 4 points. At 2 I'd give it a go.

14 hours ago, player3010587 said:

TLDR: yes, laugh at my defense of the creation of the seemingly-useless Predictive Shot. But "Midnight" the faction assuming that their friends strip the green tokens or that said tokens are used on offense or saved for bigger threats, etc. etc. is incoming. And when Soontir gets sniped by a R3, Stealth, Rock shot by a Jedi with a focus, this time it will no longer be that legendary fluke.

Despite the theoretical stats of the Jedi Starfighter, they've actually got a lot more basic punch than you'd think - Delta-7Bs trade a green die for a red die, and calibrated targeting adds an automatic focus result in the bullseye, for an effective 4 dice attack.

I think the TIE/v1 is not a bad platform for Predictive shot. Its key is going to be its advantage with 2-dice attackers, which the advanced prototype is. Predictive shot is cheap, and has a non-trivial chance of effectively reducing the target's agility if you can bullseye them (and the Inquisitor has both boost and barrel roll linked to a focus).

You'd be paying 44 points for an inquisitor so equipped, which is a random amount - too much for 5 of them, not quite enough for 4 of them - Collision Detectors might be a nice option for the agile little buggers.

Ultimately, bullseye arcs aren't that hard to line up if you have several of them. The 'arc' is wider than you think because you only have to catch part of your target in it - so it's a region about double the width of the target's base.

If you can get a range 3 bullseye, it's going to be very nice at long range - an agility three target finding itself only allowed to roll 1-2 dice is in trouble - but that's going to be hard to pull off with anything but larger bases.

I suspect the main competition is proton rockets; if you've got your eye in for bullseye, then proton rockets can lob 5 attack dice along that line with a focus token.

The problem is it costs 4 points, requires bullseye AND makes you spend your one and only force token. I could maybe see it on Seventh Sister if you have Krennic in your squad (roll focus/hit, spend the focus to remove a shield or flip a card, have them roll 1 single green), but I think I'd rather have more reliable upgrades like Sense or Hate.

The Grand Inquistor would rather just use his ability, and all the other force users roll 3+ dice anyway. Maybe it could work on Jedi Knights, but then you'd have all the same issues the Inquisitors have, plus a ship ability also vying for that token.

Honestly this upgrade should probably have been similar to Sense: Free in bullseye, cost one force in normal front arc.

Or cost 1-2 points.

5 hours ago, Okapi said:

I'm doubtful it'll see much play at 4 points. At 2 I'd give it a go.

Well this thread was perfect until a non Obi-Wan profile pic posted:)

Only kidding only kidding, it does cost a little high but if you fly with this in mind it can be great I think, keep the aethersprite as low costed as possible and try to keep the game at range 3 and behind asteroids. You’ll be getting 4-5 green dice while your opponent only gets maximum of 2.

You kind of have to build around it, but I think if you do it is worth it’s 4 points.

Edited by ObiWan
1 hour ago, Magnus Grendel said:

Despite the theoretical stats of the Jedi Starfighter, they've actually got a lot more basic punch than you'd think - Delta-7Bs trade a green die for a red die, and calibrated targeting adds an automatic focus result in the bullseye, for an effective 4 dice attack.

It can definitely go in guns blazing but it can’t equip both the 7B and the calibrated targeting unless it comes with 2 configuration slots, which doesn’t really make sense to me. So you have to choose one or the other, both would get you to 3. But I think you’d only run predictive shot on cheap ones where you don’t use either

12 hours ago, player3010587 said:

We must find another guy with an Obi profile pic to join the post. Rally the Kenobis!

Who is more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him? 😄

I fear that the only place that this card will be viable is on the Generic Inquisitor, and as a means

Inquisitors are both fun and very good at surviving, but they struggle to do enough damage to make up their points. If they could take Barrage Rockets, all would be well. Unfortunately, they can't, and struggle to land damage on to targets with 2+ agility

This allows them to potentially punch chip damage through when in bullseye. I'm unsure if this is a good use of points however, and even if it is, unsure if it's good enough to warrant using the now 44 point inquisitor.

Taking it on the Grand Inquisitor, Luke, Kylo, or Vader seems to be a colossal waste.