1 hour ago, Suimaru said:The one they were in, was to first blood. Looking over it, Keinosuke probably could've won that, by spending opportunity.
Fire 3, Martial 2 with Seize The Moment and the Killer Instinct Distinction? Possibly, though it wouldn't be easy.
The rules as written say winning a Duel to First Blood takes a severity 5+ critical strike (which personally I think is stupid since Razor-Edged weapons give you the Bleeding condition at Severity 3 and some techniques can give you the condition directly).
A critical strike would need two successes (to hit), two opportunities (to inflict a critical strike) and ideally at least one more opportunity (to increase the severity of the critical so you can't lower it to severity 4 or less).
That's a fair ask, but not impossible; certainly 4 results on 6 dice with rerolls is pretty achievable, and 6 dice should net you at least one explosive success or success/opportunity pair.
Doubly so because if Keinosuke draws and starts stabbing away straight off, he can 'pre-spend' opportunities on striking as fire; keeping opportunities rather than successes on the first, unaugmented attack to boost the impact of the second (plus, if he attacks over a couple of rounds he can shift his grip to double-handed for that lovely deadliness 7).
It's all play and counterplay. For example, an easy answer to opportunity-criticals is earth stance. But if you expect someone to do that, predicting earth stance means they take strife and have to switch stance if they try that - but it wastes a precious action if they don't.
Duel to first blood is an interesting one because 'just hitting someone' isn't enough to win, you have to hit them and inflict a critical strike and ensure they don't reduce the severity to 4 or less.
Crucially, unlike duels to incapacitation, the finishing blow is a near-garuanteed victory, so concentrating on throwing out (or bleeding off) strife rather than resorting to swords at all is a perfectly valid approach. If Keinosuke's composure is better than is opponents (give or take any strife the PC might already have), then predicting and waiting in air or earth stance to avoid letting your enemy win until you have a chance for a finishing blow and dropping an iai cut on them from a sheathed blade is a classically perfect iai victory.
Keinosuke's composure 10 however is not bad but not great either.