1 minute ago, AllWingsStandyingBy said:

Exactly, though I guess there's so solace in knowing that there's a low chance this will work for Fenn. There's a <100% chance the Fenn player will opt for the hard-turn option, and even if he does there's only a 50% chance that he correctly guesses Left or Right.

True. As the Rebel player it comes down to how comfortable you are with the gamble, given a correct guess means there's no chance of dying, but an incorrect guess leaves you at the mercy of a 5-dice Fenn. I'd go 1-straight and take the chance of killing Fenn in a 1-on-1, with the additional bonus that if Fenn does go for the 1-hard it doesn't matter which direction he chooses - you still win!

2 hours ago, MasterShake2 said:

It looks like less than a full base between them, so a 1 from Wedge and 2 from Fenn is a bump, but that's just eyeballing.

It is extremely close!

Only the nubs bump when Fenn tries to move past. Of course if he would fit, Wedge would bump with his 1 straight and the game is over.

These are basically Wedge's moves:

Now looking at Fenn's moves:

There are two possibilities:

1. Wedge goes 1 bank and rolls backwards. Only the 4k of Fenn can take that maneuver. It will be a 5dice+fearless attack on Wedge with 1 hull. Aka he's ded. The 1 turn is of course an option, too, but Fenn would be stupid to do so because he can't know which side Wedge will choose.

2. Wedge goes past the 4k of Fenn. He can do that by a 3/4 straight, a 2/3 hard, or by a 2/3 bank, or by a 1bank+boost. These moves are countered by a 2straight of Fenn, but he might have to adjust by repositioning. Which gives him a focus, so no big deal. edit: From that we know Fenn should really NOT do a 4K because almost every move of Wedge goes past that.

But here comes the actual solution! You would never guess that because you need laser precision eyes, but a 1 straight of Wedge bumps both the 2straight and the 4k of Fenn! Fenn has no move to counter it and Wedge wins. (edit: 1 straight of course, not 2!)

edit2: Here is what happens if Wedge does anything but 1bank+roll:

Fenn has him in R1, guaranteed.

1 hour ago, DR4CO said:

Dutch has 3 hull left, so Fenn would be trying to roll natural 3 hits and praying for a blank-out, which is about a 4% chance of killing Dutch. By comparison, if the K-turn lands and Fenn gets the face-off, he has a 91% chance of killing the 1-hull Wedge

Ah, I don’t have Vassal so I didn’t know where they were at.

I think the actual, intended solution is the 2bank + roll backwards!

This evades both the 4k and the 2 straight. The only thing Fenn could do is to 2bank himself and hope for the correct side. That would be a 50% chance to win, which might be pretty good. But it relies on the Wedge player spotting this solution (which I would not have during a game!) and as long as Wedge does not, the 2 straight is probably the best move for Fenn because it covers all but 3 moves: 1straight, 1bank+roll, 2bank+roll. Everything else of Wedge lands in R1.

e:

and same result for 1bank + roll forwards

2 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

It is extremely close!

Only the nubs bump when Fenn tries to move past. Of course if he would fit, Wedge would bump with his 1 straight and the game is over.

These are basically Wedge's moves:

Now looking at Fenn's moves:

There are two possibilities:

1. Wedge goes 1 bank and rolls backwards. Only the 4k of Fenn can take that maneuver. It will be a 5dice+fearless attack on Wedge with 1 hull. Aka he's ded. The 1 turn is of course an option, too, but Fenn would be stupid to do so because he can't know which side Wedge will choose.

2. Wedge goes past the 4k of Fenn. He can do that by a 3/4 straight, a 2/3 hard, or by a 2/3 bank, or by a 1bank+boost. These moves are countered by a 2straight of Fenn, but he might have to adjust by repositioning. Which gives him a focus, so no big deal. edit: From that we know Fenn should really NOT do a 4K because almost every move of Wedge goes past that.

But here comes the actual solution! You would never guess that because you need laser precision eyes, but a 1 straight of Wedge bumps both the 2straight and the 4k of Fenn! Fenn has no move to counter it and Wedge wins. (edit: 1 straight of course, not 2!)

edit2: Here is what happens if Wedge does anything but 1bank+roll:

Fenn has him in R1, guaranteed.

Ha! You see that, Blade, the 1bank br does not dodge a 4k! But that is only the backwards one, the forward one still validates your point. lol

4 hours ago, blade_mercurial said:

1 bank left + barrel roll left forward.

All credit to @blade_mercurial, he called it immediately!

Just now, player3010587 said:

Ha! You see that, Blade, the 1bank br does not dodge a 4k!

He wrote forwards, I rolled backwards! The forward roll does dodge the 4k!

Lots of great discussion on this one. I've updated the blog post to incorporate the discussions here and on Reddit. Thanks all!