Rebel list here // Scum list here // VASSAL file here

Slight variation of Puzzle 1 . This time Wedge has 1 stress and Fenn is in a tighter spot. As before, time has been called and it is the planning phase of the last round. The Rebel player has half-pointed Fenn and killed Old Teroch and Palob for a total of 150 points. The Scum player has killed Luke and half-pointed both Wedge and Dutch for a total of 141 points. Fenn moves second. Fenn needs to kill something to win! What does Wedge do? What does Fenn do? What does Dutch do?

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Blog post here.

Depends on the tendencies of the players. This is a very Princess Bride situation, as the big decision in question is if Wedge does the 1 forward or tries to block the K-turn. Dutch's decision is irrelevant, as he knows he can't deal damage and will thus book it so that any potshot is irrelevant. If I were Wedge, I would do the 1 forward focus. Yeah, expected damage is only 1 hit 30% chance of crit on the K-turned Fenn, but at least I have a chance. If I try to block the k-turn and he just 2 forwards anyway, that is a game auto-loss unless some insane RNG happens. I don't believe in any of the turn maneuvers, as anything on his dial will allow him to reposition and focus for a killshot.

9 minutes ago, player3010587 said:

Depends on the tendencies of the players. This is a very Princess Bride situation, as the big decision in question is if Wedge does the 1 forward or tries to block the K-turn. Dutch's decision is irrelevant, as he knows he can't deal damage and will thus book it so that any potshot is irrelevant. If I were Wedge, I would do the 1 forward focus. Yeah, expected damage is only 1 hit 30% chance of crit on the K-turned Fenn, but at least I have a chance. If I try to block the k-turn and he just 2 forwards anyway, that is a game auto-loss unless some insane RNG happens. I don't believe in any of the turn maneuvers, as anything on his dial will allow him to reposition and focus for a killshot.

Ha! You forgot one important move that wedge has: 1 bank left + barrel roll left forward. This avoids the firing arc of Fenn's K-turn, and makes it impossible for Fenn's 2-straight to get a shot on.

I wonder how many players can see that on an actual table (as opposed to vassal's top-down view...)

2 minutes ago, blade_mercurial said:

Ha! You forgot one important move that wedge has: 1 bank left + barrel roll left forward. This avoids the firing arc of Fenn's K-turn, and makes it impossible for Fenn's 2-straight to get a shot on.

I wonder how many players can see that on an actual table (as opposed to vassal's top-down view...)

Fenn 2 forward would still fit tho, right?edit : nvm, misread response

1 minute ago, player3010587 said:

Fenn 2 forward would still fit tho, right?

Sure, but its moot, because he can't get arc on Wedge (Wedge's own barrrel blocks Fenn's ability to roll left). In order for Fenn to get the shot, he has to predict the 1 bank + barrel roll by Wedge, and counter it with a 2 bank left. But then he can't get a shot if Wedge actually ends up doing 1 straight.

8 minutes ago, player3010587 said:

Depends on the tendencies of the players. This is a very Princess Bride situation, as the big decision in question is if Wedge does the 1 forward or tries to block the K-turn. Dutch's decision is irrelevant, as he knows he can't deal damage and will thus book it so that any potshot is irrelevant. If I were Wedge, I would do the 1 forward focus. Yeah, expected damage is only 1 hit 30% chance of crit on the K-turned Fenn, but at least I have a chance. If I try to block the k-turn and he just 2 forwards anyway, that is a game auto-loss unless some insane RNG happens. I don't believe in any of the turn maneuvers, as anything on his dial will allow him to reposition and focus for a killshot.

I think you've almost got it.

But you're wrong to ignore Dutch. Dutch should probably dial in a 2 or 3 forward (whatever keeps him in range 3 of Wedge) and lock so he can pass a lock to Wedge.

Because of the situation, I think Fenn Rau only really has two options for catching Wedge in arc: a 2 forward or a 4k. I can't open Vassal right now so I can't judge by looking whether Wedge can block the 2 forward with a 1 forward. If he can, Wedge dials in a 1 forward, and Fenn Rau either a) bumps and loses, or b) has to survive a fully modded attack from Wedge.

OP should consider giving Dutch a turret to give him a reason for being in the puzzle. He's sort of the cheeky "none of the above" answer here. You just have to make sure he is not being shot.

I agree that Wedge should slow game the speedy Fang by doing a bank over trying to joust the K-turn. You just don't know if he is going to do his 2 forward and be up your butt.

15 minutes ago, BDrafty said:

OP should consider giving Dutch a turret to give him a reason for being in the puzzle. He's sort of the cheeky "none of the above" answer here. You just have to make sure he is not being shot.

Even if he had turret, there's no way Dutch can make it relevant here, unless it were already pointed Left or Right and Dutch wanted to 2-Turn and red-roll, but that would be very telegraphed to Fenn Rau. Dutch can pass a TL to Wedge, though.

20 minutes ago, BDrafty said:

I agree that Wedge should slow game the speedy Fang by doing a bank over trying to joust the K-turn. You just don't know if he is going to do his 2 forward and be up your butt.

If Wedge does just 1-Forward to "joust the K-Turn" though, that means Fenn Rau's 2-Forward bumps into Wedge and it's game, set, match Rebels. If Wedge 1-Forwards and Fenn does K-turn, then it's simultaneous fire (without the classic "Blinded Pilot" hail mary) where Fenn has no tokens and Wedge has TL+F (thanks to Dutch), which still probably gives Wedge the win.

That said, using the T-65s reposition to not even give Fenn a shot is the safer bet, as RNG can always screw you, but there's no statistically likely scenario for Fenn Rau to pull this one out, because the only scenario where Fenn should get a shot is one where he is also more likely to die than Wedge (and if they kill each other, it's Rebel win anyways).

This feels like it's pretty straight forward for the Rebels. A 1-forward from Wedge, probably after a TL passed from Dutch, is the low-risk option. Even if you get shot at, it's unmodified. If you survive, you win. If not, you have a 4-dice fully modified shot at a 2 health ship rolling 3 agility dice, with a free Evade. That's still good odds for Wedge. The danger of trying the 1-bank into BR is that Fenn goes for a 1-hard and gets a shot at you with no reprisal.

Dutch straight 3's into a lock, Wedge straight 1's and either repos out of the way or takes a locked and focused shot on Fenn if he K-Turns. Fenn doesn't kill dutch if he just runs and the only way to shoot at Wedge it to take a hit with very light defensive mods. It feels like the Rebel player has to do something really stupid or Fenn has to get a gangbusters roll on Dutch with no mods off a Tallon roll to win.

6 minutes ago, Jike said:

This feels like it's pretty straight forward for the Rebels. A 1-forward from Wedge, probably after a TL passed from Dutch, is the low-risk option. Even if you get shot at, it's unmodified. If you survive, you win. If not, you have a 4-dice fully modified shot at a 2 health ship rolling 3 agility dice, with a free Evade. That's still good odds for Wedge. The danger of trying the 1-bank into BR is that Fenn goes for a 1-hard and gets a shot at you with no reprisal.

Should be 2 defense dice, no? It’s Wedge shooting, here.

Just now, SpiderMana said:

Should be 2 defense dice, no? It’s Wedge shooting, here.

He's shooting at Fenn at Range 1

1 minute ago, MasterShake2 said:

He's shooting at Fenn at Range 1

I hate Fenn ? I don’t play scum, so I forget about the easy things there sometimes.

Really, though, might Fenn be better off doing a 2-tallon and taking a potshot at Dutch? 5 unmodified dice vs Wedge’s 2 is obviously better, but what are the odds of surviving Wedge’s attack and killing him, stacked? Vs the odds of 3 dice, unmodified, vs 2 dice for Dutch at range 3? Especially since Wedge has a focus, if he decides its worth it to save it for defense?

1 minute ago, SpiderMana said:

I hate Fenn ? I don’t play scum, so I forget about the easy things there sometimes.

Really, though, might Fenn be better off doing a 2-tallon and taking a potshot at Dutch? 5 unmodified dice vs Wedge’s 2 is obviously better, but what are the odds of surviving Wedge’s attack and killing him, stacked? Vs the odds of 3 dice, unmodified, vs 2 dice for Dutch at range 3? Especially since Wedge has a focus, if he decides its worth it to save it for defense? 

It's also noteworthy that if he was in a position to try and bump behind Wedge (which I don't think he is) Wedge can just straight 1, then close into a boost > foucs and you're throwing 3 at 2 with mods. Fenn has to K-Turn. Pull the slot machine, you've already lost.

51 minutes ago, BDrafty said:

OP should consider giving Dutch a turret to give him a reason for being in the puzzle. He's sort of the cheeky "none of the above" answer here. You just have to make sure he is not being shot.

I agree that Wedge should slow game the speedy Fang by doing a bank over trying to joust the K-turn. You just don't know if he is going to do his 2 forward and be up your butt.

Unless I'm mis-guessing, a 2 striaght from Fenn just jumps over Wedge, so Wedge's straight 1 bumps and it's GG. The only move that makes sense for Fenn is the K-Turn and hope for RNG. Maybe a Tallon gets you a shot at Dutch, but that's 3 v. 2 with no mods, so average slightly less than 1 damage.

18 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

Unless I'm mis-guessing, a 2 striaght from Fenn just jumps over Wedge, so Wedge's straight 1 bumps and it's GG. The only move that makes sense for Fenn is the K-Turn and hope for RNG. Maybe a Tallon gets you a shot at Dutch, but that's 3 v. 2 with no mods, so average slightly less than 1 damage.

Fenn moves last.

EDIT which i now realize doesn't actually matter for the purpose of your point.

11 minutes ago, MasterShake2 said:

Unless I'm mis-guessing, a 2 striaght from Fenn just jumps over Wedge, so Wedge's straight 1 bumps and it's GG. The only move that makes sense for Fenn is the K-Turn and hope for RNG. Maybe a Tallon gets you a shot at Dutch, but that's 3 v. 2 with no mods, so average slightly less than 1 damage.

My assumption was that (with Fenn moving last) a 1 forward from the X-wing and a 2 forward from the Fang would leave the ships at range 1 and not range 0. I'm eyeballing everything here, but it looks like that will just fit. It only fits if there is a little more than 1 ship base between them and that SEEMS to be the case.

Super hopeless for the Fang if it is NOT the case.

5 minutes ago, BDrafty said:

My assumption was that (with Fenn moving last) a 1 forward from the X-wing and a 2 forward from the Fang would leave the ships at range 1 and not range 0. I'm eyeballing everything here, but it looks like that will just fit. It only fits if there is a little more than 1 ship base between them and that SEEMS to be the case.

Super hopeless for the Fang if it is NOT the case.

It looks like less than a full base between them, so a 1 from Wedge and 2 from Fenn is a bump, but that's just eyeballing.

11 minutes ago, BDrafty said:

My assumption was that (with Fenn moving last) a 1 forward from the X-wing and a 2 forward from the Fang would leave the ships at range 1 and not range 0. I'm eyeballing everything here, but it looks like that will just fit. It only fits if there is a little more than 1 ship base between them and that SEEMS to be the case.

Super hopeless for the Fang if it is NOT the case.

Measured with the select tool in Paint: a base is about 30 pixels, but the gap is only 25 pixels. That is a guaranteed bump if the 1 forward and the 2 forward are selected with no reposition from Wedge. They are both orientated on the same orthogonal plane (curious, as 22.5 is the superior angle unless you want to line up a bullseye), and furthermore, at the exact same angle. That is unless there is some sloppy play, which would make everyone involved feel really bad and frustrated.

Definitely not a full base length between them.

Also, if Dutch is only just at half-health, he has 4 hull that Fenn can only kill with the right crit, not to mention naturally rolling 3 damage and Dutch biffing the defense roll. That has to be less than a 5% likelihood.

I might have miss-entered something, but attempting to use a probability calculator, it looks like there’s a 60% chance Wedge kills Fenn if Dutch passes a lock and Wedge 1-forwards/ focuses, and Fenn k-turns.

So the 40% chance of survival is already better than your odds of killing Dutch. And your odds of ending Wedge are going to be better as well.

So the obvious answer for Fenn is to K-Turn.

Wedge’s odds are then best if he can arc-dodge, thus surviving and winning. He doesn’t even have to risk the barrel roll if he’s sure Fenn will do this, he could 2-bank and boost away, not being close to in-arc.

Fenn could consider turning after Wedge if he feels like this is likely, but he then has to guess which way Wedge might turn.

1 hour ago, SpiderMana said:

I hate Fenn ? I don’t play scum, so I forget about the easy things there sometimes.

Really, though, might Fenn be better off doing a 2-tallon and taking a potshot at Dutch? 5 unmodified dice vs Wedge’s 2 is obviously better, but what are the odds of surviving Wedge’s attack and killing him, stacked? Vs the odds of 3 dice, unmodified, vs 2 dice for Dutch at range 3? Especially since Wedge has a focus, if he decides its worth it to save it for defense?

The 2-tallon for a shot at Dutch is a pretty big hail mary. According to the Vassal file, Dutch has 3 hull left, so Fenn would be trying to roll natural 3 hits and praying for a blank-out, which is about a 4% chance of killing Dutch. By comparison, if the K-turn lands and Fenn gets the face-off, he has a 91% chance of killing the 1-hull Wedge (even with a Wedge Focus; without a Focus it's 96%). Wedge has a 58% chance of killing him if Dutch passes a Target Lock across, which gives Fenn a 38% chance to steal the win (if I'm doing the math right).

As the Rebel player, I'd be happy taking those odds on the joust, and therefore would dial in straight-1s on both ships (Dutch can't go faster because he needs to keep Wedge at Range 3). Dutch passes a Target Lock back across, safe in the knowledge that it would take quite the stroke of fate for him to die. Wedge Focuses and accepts giving Fenn a little more than a 1-in-3 chance to win if he goes for the K-turn. Fenn does any other move and the Rebels win (save for the world in which the hail mary Tallon for the shot at Dutch pays off).

The 1-bank left and barrel roll forwards on Wedge is definitely an option, and has the advantage of being a guaranteed win if Fenn doesn't call it. But it also has the disadvantage of not having an "out" if the opponent calls it correctly and 1-turns after Wedge. Personally, I wouldn't go for it, but I wouldn't call it an incorrect call.

On Fenn's side, there are only three realistic options (discounting the Tallon roll), and they are the hard-1s and the K-turn. The 2-straight almost surely bumps after Wedge's 1-straight (and does, if you check the vassal file), and we'll give our opponent some amount of respect and assume he knows that. Ultimately Fenn's pilot needs to play his opponent, not the game. Is the Rebel player more likely to take the percentage play and joust, or the higher risk, higher reward play of banking and rolling? We'll have to just make a call and live with the consequences.

Side note: according to the vassal file, Fenn is super screwed, because Wedge's straight-1 actually blocks the K-turn! The ships are lined up such that the nubs end up just overlapping in the final position. I'm not sure the players would even notice it on a table top.

10 minutes ago, player3010587 said:

Measured with the select tool in Paint: a base is about 30 pixels, but the gap is only 25 pixels. That is a guaranteed bump if the 1 forward and the 2 forward are selected with no reposition from Wedge. They are both orientated on the same orthogonal plane (curious, as 22.5 is the superior angle unless you want to line up a bullseye), and furthermore, at the exact same angle. That is unless there is some sloppy play, which would make everyone involved feel really bad and frustrated.

Hmmm...you may be right. I looked at the pic again (I didn't use a measuring tool, but I did squint REAL HARD) and it looks like less than 1 ship base. So, the 1 forward (to victory) looks like the most solid move from Wedge. He will either bump or end up only rolling his agility vs a modified 4 dice.

1 hour ago, Jike said:

The danger of trying the 1-bank into BR is that Fenn goes for a 1-hard and gets a shot at you with no reprisal.

Exactly, though I guess there's so solace in knowing that there's a low chance this will work for Fenn. There's a <100% chance the Fenn player will opt for the hard-turn option, and even if he does there's only a 50% chance that he correctly guesses Left or Right.

25 minutes ago, player3010587 said:

That is unless there is some sloppy play, which would make everyone involved feel really bad and frustrated.

This pretty much sums up competitive on-the-table X-Wing against the vast majority of opponents. ?