3 times I tagged jabba still nothing meaningful all game
Irrepressible Optimism {mafia} Concluded
Lowly smuggler was an autocorrelation fail right?
No we are smugglers right?
{Juat copy the green parts of my post - not the bits in ellipsis}
{can’t sleep - clown will eat me}
(Arrrgh - lost my long theorycrafting post. Will try to rewrite in brief)
This isn’t a normal Mafia game. This is hunt the saboteur. Thus I think that any 1 to 3 of the agent players will likely be trying to throw us off building a case against the saboteur. I also think it’s in the saboteur’s best interest to keep a low profile. So I’m looking for distracting players as agent suspects and quiet Players as saboteur suspects.
2 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:(Arrrgh - lost my long theorycrafting post. Will try to rewrite in brief)
This isn’t a normal Mafia game. This is hunt the saboteur. Thus I think that any 1 to 3 of the agent players will likely be trying to throw us off building a case against the saboteur. I also think it’s in the saboteur’s best interest to keep a low profile. So I’m looking for distracting players as agent suspects and quiet Players as saboteur suspects.
i couldn't agree more!
11 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:(Arrrgh - lost my long theorycrafting post. Will try to rewrite in brief)
This isn’t a normal Mafia game. This is hunt the saboteur. Thus I think that any 1 to 3 of the agent players will likely be trying to throw us off building a case against the saboteur. I also think it’s in the saboteur’s best interest to keep a low profile. So I’m looking for distracting players as agent suspects and quiet Players as saboteur suspects.
This is an interesting thought... Hmmm...
See confusion, @The Jabbawookie seems to be the most "low profile" but that might be because of IRL stuff...
Although perhaps LP is just throwing out more info as he himself is an Agent or saboteur...
Smoke and Mirrors!
I'm going to go back to coin flipping...
11 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:On the one hand I’m flattered that you think playing Pazaak after midnight was my way of communicating with Scum. Moriarty levels of evil genius there.
On the other hand - arrrrgh! I implore both you and @caldias to think about this please from Occam’s perspective: how likely is it that this is a devilishly fiendish ploy by me/Matt versus how likely is it that it is to the Scum’s advantage to keep bringing this back to me so that they remain unexamined! Am pretty sure in Mafia, the Scum is usually less grand plan, more exploit-Town-trains!
“Moriarty level... Evil Genius... devilishly fiendish... “
Exaggerating and poking fun at another’s position in order to convince others to discount it can be an effective tactic.
I’m not saying it’s genius — evil or otherwise — but I am saying it could have been a smart move. You want invoke Occam’s Razor? Ok.
If you are scum in game that suddenly doesn’t allow you to do night kills or coordinate via scum chat, what are you more likely to do? Casually explore ways to try and connect with your scummates through an innocent game of cards or just lurk in the shadows and hope no one kills you, or them?
That you are not willing to concede that this could be a pretty good — not over the top evil genius, but just a smart — possibility makes me suspect you all the more.
As far as what you call the “usual” smart play for scum, I don’t know if that applies here, bc this is not a usual situation for scum. Again, no night kill and no chat chat changes everything for them. Really, it must be borderline maddening bc so much of their power has been stripped away... I’d imagine theyd want to try something, anything different.
2 minutes ago, Gengis Jon said:u are scum in game that suddenly doesn’t allow you to do n ight kills or coordinate via scum chat, what are you mo r e likely to do ? C asually explore ways to try and connect with yo u r s c ummates thr ou gh an innocent game of car d s
But GJ - Scum couldn’t “explore ways through a casual game of cards” because there would be no communication allowed! Unless you believe that Matt and I have broken the rules and communicated outside of the game in which case neither I nor he would be fit to ever play this game again.
35 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:On the one hand I’m flattered that you think playing Pazaak after midnight was my way of communicating with Scum. Moriarty levels of evil genius there.
On the other hand - arrrrgh! I implore both you and @caldias to think about this please from Occam’s perspective: how likely is it that this is a devilishly fiendish ploy by me/Matt versus how likely is it that it is to the Scum’s advantage to keep bringing this back to me so that they remain unexamined! Am pretty sure in Mafia, the Scum is usually less grand plan, more exploit-Town-trains!
##unvote
This is a good point, much like the Pod/Ebon distractions of yore. I mean, the gambling thing could also be a way for a scum agent to tip his hat to a scum saboteur under the radar, so I'm not completely convinced, but your argument has merit.
We have time, I'll take my vote off so you don't get trained while I dig further.
1 minute ago, Lord Preyer said:But GJ - Scum couldn’t “explore ways through a casual game of cards” because there would be no communication allowed! Unless you believe that Matt and I have broken the rules and communicated outside of the game in which case neither I nor he would be fit to ever play this game again.
I’m not saying overt communication. Just who shows up to play, how friendly they seem, perhaps little tells might emerge. Who knows...
I’m not saying that’s what did or didn’t happen, just that could very well seem like a good idea at the time as potential under the radar method to at least try.
On 10/9/2018 at 3:00 AM, LTD said:GhostofNobodyinParticular
2. Caldias
3. PodRacer
4. Visovics
5. The Jabbawo okie
6. Clontrooper5
7. Lord Preyer
8. Bertie Wooster
9. Gengis Jon
10. Matt3412
11. Constantine Valdor
Our starting line up.
Of these:
1 (Vis) was crew and dead
5 are (still) crew
3 are Agents
1 is the saboteur
That means that there is now a very high likelihood that any successful train will have Imperials voting in it. They just need to kill, what 2 more crew, to gain control of the ship? Step forward me and Matt as the constantly returned to prey to distract from any suspicions to the contrary.
Simplicity, not fiendish cunning, is far more likely to be what scum are doing here!
we can win with one vote lets just do some digging and hope others start talking.
We really need to hear from @Constantine Valdor @The Jabbawookie @Bertie Wooster And @clontroper5 we need you to drop the Two Face channeling and share your suspicions please!
4 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:Our starting line up.
Of these:
1 (Vis) was crew and dead
5 are (still) crew
3 are Agents
1 is the saboteur
We started with 7 crew/town. 6 crew are still alive.
7 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:We really need to hear from @Constantine Valdor @The Jabbawookie @Bertie Wooster And @clontroper5 we need you to drop the Two Face channeling and share your suspicions please!
Hey! I'm sharing my suspicions!!
And maybe I like twoface...
9 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:Simplicity, not fiendish cunning , is far more likely to be what scum are doing here!
Again with the overstating. I think you are protesting a bit too much.
Are you really not willing to concede this could have been a smart move?
Are you really not willing to concede that giving up your vote was — at best — reckless? (And at worst, also a smart play to test possible alliances?)
Are you really not willing to concede that even now Matt sticking by you looks at least a little fishy?
These are all things that the reasonable, logical (and innocent) LP would have easily conceded as possibilities in previous games.
And yet not now.
So I'm at work right now so can't go back and review everything, but here are my current thoughts.
I personally don't think the super quiet players are dangerous (although they may be the Saboteur)
I suspect the louder players are Agents trying to cause confusion by accusations and diverting attention. This makes @Lord Preyer and @Matt3412 my biggest suspects. I originally suspected @GhostofNobodyInParticular (and still do a little) but less then the other 2. I also suppose that @Gengis Jon and @Bertie Wooster could be trying to distract. Especially @Gengis Jon who is targeting LP pretty hard still...
I suppose I should acknowledge myself, I have been vocal and some what sporadic... So I guess that could seem distracting?
Anyway my prime suspects are @Lord Preyer , @Matt3412 and @Gengis Jon . As imperial agents. No clue who is the Saboteur
New observation:
If more than 7 Players are willing to go after someone with lines of questions then they cant be the Saboteur its just too risky to help create that pressure.
The saboteur will be someone that is being defended
[I get this makes me look bad with me defending LP but do to point one i'm willing to fall on this sword for the time being] However i Believe that more people would be defending LP if he was the Saboteur and not so many people would have gone after him D1.
It will be very difficult to actually get all 6 town to vote for the Saboteur because we would be the only ones voting and be getting a hard counter from 4 parties potentially
I guess we need to Eliminate an Agent.
OK, I will talk.
Matt wondered why I seem to suspect everyone but GNIP. As for Gengis, I pointed out that "my emperor's holy balls" comment seemed odd, but Gengis clarified and I accepted. I joined Pod's roulette game, but then after seeing the result of the "innocent" Pazaak game, I wondered if the roulette had a secret twist to it. Pod clarified this also, and I accepted.
The game between LP and Matt began to seem suspicious to me after thinking about the "lose your vote" conditions. GNIP was the first to point this out, and he has already waxed eloquently about why this is so. So I have no reason to suspect GNIP. Everything GNIP has said and done seems like normal town behavior to me. Starting the LP train looks more like a smart town play than a scum play.
I switched my vote to Visovics because I thought his silence was suspicious. I was wrong. I don't want to make that mistake again by voting for Jabbawookie.
Nothing seems more suspicious now than Matt's defense of LP, for reasons already discussed. Maybe I can write more about that later. But I am pretty sure my vote is going to be for LP this day.
12 minutes ago, Matt3412 said:New observation:
If more than 7 Players are willing to go after someone with lines of questions then they cant be the Saboteur its just too risky to help create that pressure.
The saboteur will be someone that is being defended
[I get this makes me look bad with me defending LP but do to point one i'm willing to fall on this sword for the time being] However i Believe that more people would be defending LP if he was the Saboteur and not so many people would have gone after him D1.
It will be very difficult to actually get all 6 town to vote for the Saboteur because we would be the only ones voting and be getting a hard counter from 4 parties potentially
I guess we need to Eliminate an Agent.
But what if, as LP pointed out, the scum are questioning the Saboteur intentionally trying to throw us off threw that logic?
Now wait a minute, I just looked at page 5 again. GNIP wasn't the first person to vote for LP, it was Visovics. I've been taking Matt's word for it that GNIP started the LP train, but it was Visovics who voted first. And we know he was innocent.
So what reason do we have to suspect GNIP?
1 minute ago, clontroper5 said:But what if, as LP pointed out, the scum are questioning the Saboteur intentionally trying to throw us off threw that logic?
That’s a good possibility. If I was scum, I’d definitely throw at least a little heat on the Saboteur for that very reason.