I think each of these is a step that all persons playing competitively get too (depending on how long a given tournament is going).
Game 1 - Calculate Probabilities every turn
Game 2 - Calculate a few things
Game 3 - Trust your gut for maneuvering then maybe calculate your actions with probabilities
Game 4 - Ouch my brain is starting to hurt lets just joust this match
Game 5 - Try to calculate a few things because I lost the last match, end up making bad calculations
Game 6 - OMG IS THIS TOURNAMENT EVER GOING TO END USE THE FORCE CHUCK THE DICE JOUST EVERYTHING

19 hours ago, pickirk01 said:

Math is only part of the equation. For example, rolling 3 dice with a focus token gives better average damage than rolling 4 naked dice so its often better to focus at range 2 than boost/roll into range 1. On the other hand, rolling into range one might make make your enemy re-think his target priority and so your fragile glass cannon out at range 3 might live another round longer than they otherwise might have.

That is why I trust my gut in many situations early in the match. Its as much about the situation as the math.

That kind of bluffing is key to a lot of lists I fly. But math is still very a large part of the strat. For instance, when to spend lock/focus, which action to take how much damage should be permitted before having the opponent and bite the bait off a difficult to kill target that only duped them into thinking it was easy to kill. (Edit: Don't take meaningless damage though. For instance, pop the evade off Vessery in a Swarm Leader Quickdraw attack (not a revenge one, just a standard attack) to present himself as an easy target. He is a better closer than Quickdraw, harder to kill, and Quickdraw's life has been extended).

Math is also important in calculating your win scenario. What points do I need to kill to give me my best path to victory? If my big base gets half points on it what do I need to do to get MOV on my opponent? As the game progresses what do I need to do to secure my own MOV?