Good morning guys.

Am running through th scenarios:

1) Lynch @LTD and he’s Scum ✅

2) Lynch LTD and he’s Town > significantly increases likelihood that my claim of Town is also correct. Leaves Ebon in the likely suspects pool

3) Lynch Ebon and he’s Scum ✅

4) Lynch Ebon and he’s Town > stuck with one last choice to lynch right or lose but with both me and LTD still in the likely suspects pool

5) Lynch Gengis and he’s Scum ✅

6) Lynch Gengis and he’s Town > stuck with one last choice to lynch right or lose but with me and Ebon and LTD still in the likely suspects pool

7) Lynch Clon and he’s Scum ✅

8 Lynch Clon and he’s Town > stuck with one last choice to lynch right or lose but with me and Ebon and LTD still in the likely suspects pool

—

I’m pretty sure that lynching LTD is the play here but would appreciate others checking my logic please in case I’ve erred.

Oh!

9) Lynch ME and I’m Scum ✅ (I guess a quantum universe would explain my original Town assignation followed by a subsequent change of reality)

10) Lynch me and I’m Town > stuck with one last choice to lynch right or lose but with Ebon and LTD still in the likely suspects pool

—

So I still think that lynching LTD does the most good in terms of clearing some as a suspect as well. But again, please tell me if I’ve missed something or made a mistake.

Ok so I’m heading to bed. If you lynch me in the next ten hours don’t bother to wake me first.

Once I’m dead you will know that I’m telling the truth and LP is confirmed town. I imagine that will make LP the best target for scum, so urge the doctor (yeah right) to protect him.

If at the start of day 4 LP is murdered, then Clon is the scum. If at the start of day 4 LP isn’t dead, it will be because the doctor did his thing, in which case the doctor (yeah right) will probably be dead instead. In that scenario it will be Ebon, LP, and Gengis left. In that case my tendency would be to trust Gengis over Ebon, but I have no hard evidence for that feeling.

Unless I’m alive in the morning, I’ll speak to you all in the post game chat where I’ll hopefully be toasting a town victory - though it will be a close run thing.

Cheers

I’m now trying to work out if there’s a better path than lynching @LTD just to clear me.

For example: if we *just* believed LTD then we would believe that he and me are both Town. That would mean that each other Town person knew who their two allies were. The remaining suspects would be: Gengis, Clon and Ebon. We would then lynch one of these.

There would then be a Night Kill attempt. And (perhaps) a Doc save attempt. It is possible to game out how those branches might play out but why before I publish that I’d be interested in people’s thoughts about LTD’s post please.

Early morning here and just catching up with LTD’s big reveal. At first blush, seems way to convenient. I don’t buy it. At least I don’t think so. But need go over things again first.

I may very well be ready to change my vote.

Right. About to fly. Will check back in as soon as I land.

I am still puzzled by LTD’s Clon/Preyer ‘trap’ and am still leaning to lynching him to clear me but I am not certain that is the right course.

Contra that: Exploring the theory that LTD, Clon and myself are all telling the truth is also worthy of consideration (and may change lynch decisions - hi again Ebon! ).

Also of interest is how the Doctor-play tonight could be used to clear or implicate or suggest guilt. Ebon - I’d welcome your analysis in particular on what you think of LTD’s last post in terms of lynch-NK?-Save?-lynch please.

Cheers guys - good luck in the meantime!

Happ flying LP. Safe travels!

If LTD is telling the truth, and he knows LP is town. If we lynch him we will know tomorrow who scum is (ebon), especially since I will have a very high chance of saving someone/dieing to prove that I am the doctor, this leaves @Gengis Jon and @EbonHawk and we all know who looks more guilty between these 2.

Basically I am 80% sure @LTD is the bad guy, and if he is not I am certain we can catch the "real" bad guy (in that case @EbonHawk )next turn

@Lord Preyer is almost certainly innocent because

A) @LTD is scum therefore your not

B) @LTD is telling the truth which means he knows your town making you innocent!

I guess there is the third option that @LTD was vanilla town and lied, but that doesn't make sense

12 hours ago, Gengis Jon said:

Ebon

I can see why, but you should get a new radar

4 hours ago, LTD said:

Ok so I’m heading to bed. If you lynch me in the next ten hours don’t bother to wake me first.

Once I’m dead you will know that I’m telling the truth and LP is confirmed town. I imagine that will make LP the best target for scum, so urge the doctor (yeah right) to protect him.

If at the start of day 4 LP is murdered, then Clon is the scum. If at the start of day 4 LP isn’t dead, it will be because the doctor did his thing, in which case the doctor (yeah right) will probably be dead instead. In that scenario it will be Ebon, LP, and Gengis left. In that case my tendency would be to trust Gengis over Ebon, but I have no hard evidence for that feeling.

Unless I’m alive in the morning, I’ll speak to you all in the post game chat where I’ll hopefully be toasting a town victory - though it will be a close run thing.

Cheers

LOLL so WAIT........ NOW there is a doctor??????

Everything you've said today LTD has been reaching and pure assumption with no reasoning, the face you ONLY saw me as a viable lynch bud ONCE i voted you... sorry doesn't fly

And your entire argument to defend yourself is I'm scum ahhahahaha which is the best because I'll tell you why

By NOT voting Anyone all game, then suddenly CLEARING everyone else but me, ONLY after I start going after you, is either bad town or scum!

Even the case against me from you is half hearted

58 minutes ago, clontroper5 said:

If LTD is telling the truth, and he knows LP is town. If we lynch him we will know tomorrow who scum is (ebon), especially since I will have a very high chance of saving someone/dieing to prove that I am the doctor, this leaves @Gengis Jon and @EbonHawk and we all know who looks more guilty between these 2.

Basically I am 80% sure @LTD is the bad guy, and if he is not I am certain we can catch the "real" bad guy (in that case @EbonHawk )next turn

If it ain't LTD then Gengis or You would deserve the win IMO as first time scum, fact is

You're a doc clon,

Im town, and so it seems is LP and Gengis

I also will not believe a word someone says when in a game of Mafia, they think a bloody tracker role is more likely than a Doc, in a game with 4 killers!!!!!!!!

I'm sorry but that is just too much, I will not but his insistence on not having a Doc, and then seemingly ONLY admitting there could be After CLON throws shade my way, and gives LTD an out....

again Doc over tracker for me just loooooool

Also it would be a sane cop, not a tracker if we had one! Hence we had 1 cop, and that was all

58 minutes ago, clontroper5 said:

@Lord Preyer is almost certainly innocent because

A) @LTD is scum therefore your not

B) @LTD is telling the truth which means he knows your town making you innocent!

I guess there is the third option that @LTD was vanilla town and lied, but that doesn't make sense

If LTD tells the truth, assuming LP survives the night

he would be joined by one of me, you, or gengis, and based on the night kill it wont be too difficult for the remaining town.

However I find the chances of LTD not being scum so remote now I don't even think we have a tomorrow..

*may it be pointed out, I was the one to draw attention to our lynching situation, the one to save LP by unvoting (instead of 'LTDs' asking for his death), even the one who got the doc to claim thus saving Young clon from death as well narrowing our options down...

I'm sorry if you think I'm scum, re-read this game! Why on earth would i have played the way I have, plus had a active role in keeping people ALIVE today

4 hours ago, LTD said:

Ok so I’m heading to bed. If you lynch me in the next ten hours don’t bother to wake me first.

Once I’m dead you will know that I’m telling the truth and LP is confirmed town. I imagine that will make LP the best target for scum, so urge the doctor (yeah right) to protect him.

If at the start of day 4 LP is murdered, then Clon is the scum. If at the start of day 4 LP isn’t dead, it will be because the doctor did his thing, in which case the doctor (yeah right) will probably be dead instead. In that scenario it will be Ebon, LP, and Gengis left. In that case my tendency would be to trust Gengis over Ebon, but I have no hard evidence for that feeling.

Unless I’m alive in the morning, I’ll speak to you all in the post game chat where I’ll hopefully be toasting a town victory - though it will be a close run thing.

Cheers 

all seems to be assumption, and if I may it's worst case assumption...

feels more like fearmongering than a warning though, and honestly if it isn't LTD the only ting that will help is the night kill, by eliminating another and leaving the last 2 town relatively safe in picking.

Town have this, so not gunna back down now

My breakdown if we lynch others:

1) @clontroper5 -me- lets say you lynch me and I am actually doctor like I claim. This leads back into @LTD + @Lord Preyer being innocent (making ebon the bad guy) or @LTD the bad guy.

2. We lynch @EbonHawk , then we have,me, or LTD as the mafia. I'm doctor, and in this case I would use my save on @Lord Preyer which would mean a) he was saved proving my innocence and proving LTD gult or b) I am would die again proving LTD guilt or c) @Gengis Jon at the which point I would have to convince @Lord Preyer to vote for LTD.

I don't see a situation where lynching LTD isn't the best choice, too many outcomes result in his guilt

@Gengis Jon want to do the honors of the Hammer vote?

Just now, clontroper5 said:

My breakdown if we lynch others:

1) @clontroper5 -me- lets say you lynch me and I am actually doctor like I claim. This leads back into @LTD + @Lord Preyer being innocent (making ebon the bad guy) or @LTD the bad guy.

2. We lynch @EbonHawk , then we have,me, or LTD as the mafia. I'm doctor, and in this case I would use my save on @Lord Preyer which would mean a) he was saved proving my innocence and proving LTD gult or b) I am would die again proving LTD guilt or c) @Gengis Jon at the which point I would have to convince @Lord Preyer to vote for LTD.

I don't see a situation where lynching LTD isn't the best choice, too many outcomes result in his guilt

agreed

1) leaving LP/LTD both alive makes the last day too 50/50

2) lynching me also leaves you with 2 open roles confirmed, better to confirm one of them if we do go into a tomorrow, and it wont be the doc

LP/LTD is funny because both have seen me be scum twice now I believe, and both should now this ain't how I play *that* rodeo

Clon - Doc (solid)

Gengis - Town new

LP - Town

LTD - claims tracker

that would be this game has had: 2 mafia, 1 serial killer, 1 vigilante, 1 insane cop, 1 doctor, 1 tracker.... and LTD still says no to the doc

1 hour ago, clontroper5 said:

@Lord Preyer is almost certainly innocent because

A) @LTD is scum therefore your not

B) @LTD is telling the truth which means he knows your town making you innocent!

I guess there is the third option that @LTD was vanilla town and lied, but that doesn't make sense

Yeah, this is exactly the logic that has me ready to discard my vote for LP.

I’ve been re-reading LTD’s justifications and they don’t have the ring of truth to them. Seems like he’s grasping at straws.

So, what happens if we complete the hammer? Does the day just end immediately, no matter the actual time left?

Just now, Gengis Jon said:

So, what happens if we complete the hammer? Does the day just end immediately, no matter the actual time left?

Yep, the day will end once Jabba posts the hammer vote info.

If LTD is indeed the scum we're hunting that will also mean game end

13 hours ago, The Jabbawookie said:

Day 3

@Gengis Jon : 3 to hammer

@clontroper5 : 3 to hammer

@LTD : 1 to hammer (EbonHawk) (Clontroper5)

@EbonHawk : 2 to hammer (LTD)

@Lord Preyer : 2 to hammer (Gengis Jon)

Is this still accurate?

Just now, Gengis Jon said:

Is this still accurate?

I also believe so yes, from my recollection Clon has not unvoted

2 minutes ago, Gengis Jon said:

Is this still accurate?

To the best of my knowledge. If someone thinks otherwise, say so now.

##unvote

1 minute ago, The Jabbawookie said:

To the best of my knowledge. If someone thinks otherwise, say so now.

I've just checked it's indeed correct