@Madaghmire - (0) -
@ovinomanc3r - (0) -
@Caldias - (1) - Gnips
@Lord Preyer - (0) -
@GhostofNobodyInParticular - (0) -
Day 2
3 to hammer .
MAFIA - Depths of Coruscant
Wait framers are tailors?
5 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:Its a little flawed, but I think any plan we come up with will have kinks given the setup. To delve a bit;
1. Scum must kill one cop- Completely right. So we should examine why they chose Podracer, and I see a few possibilities; (no order)
a) They just picked one of you two, and it happened to be Pod
b) Pod was the sane one, and Jabba was framed pregame. Scum decided to kill the sane cop. Especially since given Jabba’s flop we would be more likely to believe that Ovi was the sane cop.
c) Ovi is sane and I was framed, or he’s insane, but either way they felt he would push me at daybreak given how yesterday ended, and they felt they could leave him alive to do it
d) Scum felt better about their chances of predicting Ovi’s investigations than Podracer’s in terms of framing. This doesn’t mean they were right with their target, but I’m guessing at state of mind
Of these, I’m not sure which I feel best about. It may be there are multiple elements at play.
2. I dont know how obvious an investigation target I was on N1. After all, you clearly didn’t investigate me again, and we can’t be sure that Pod would have, even if we agree it would have been a good play. He may have had a different read he wanted to test.
3. As likely as anyone, I suppose. But more likely than LP, who didn’t vote? Or Cal, who is just generally dangerous? Or myself, who you just named as an obvious choice for Pod second action? I mean, ostensibly you must be right, since you investigated him.
This is a really wheels within wheels ******* setup, and its frustrating the **** out of me right now. I love it.
Lets make some assumptions and see if they make sense when looked at from a scum perspective;
Ovi is insane, Jabba was framed D1;
It doesn’t matter which cop is killed. For scum, both cops now should be leaning away from their actual sanities. (Pod looks insane, Ovi looks sane) In this scenario, both myself and Gnips must be town, which makes LP and Cal our scum team.
Ovi is sane, I was framed D1;
Podracer dies for the reasons I elucidated above in scenario C. Gnips is either scum or framed, depending on how likely a target you believe him to be for framing. In this scenario, its difficult to know where to go with the vote.
I’m not addressing the possibilty I’m scum again, because I know I’m not, and I need to get this off before days end and vote. However, Ovi and our third teammate will I’m sure be cognizant of the possibility. If you believe Ovi is sane and I was not framed, you clearly have to vote me, but I urge you not to since then we will lose.
I agree you may argue against both points 2 and 3, the thing is why Ghost gave me anti-town? Because as scum seems safe from being investigated after hammering a town member?
I put all those points cause I burnt my head figuring things out and tried to order my thoughts. However the key point is the same you pointed why Pod? I completely disagree about the random shot. Scum know what I am. they may not know who I am investigating but they know every result beforehand. If I am sane, they must choose as wisely as me, or build weird arguments about why I read them scum. I am insane, they have 100% control of what I am reading cause they could even just skip framing. In the worst case, instead of building weird cases, they have just to fight thouse built from the others.
1 minute ago, Madaghmire said:Wait framers are tailors?
basically. I spent all the morning waiting for that answer from Ebon so I had to think about both possibilities. Imagine why I am not so excited about the setup despite agreeing it is an interesting one.
Ugh running out of time. Ovi, you’re the only confirmed town player. I’ll follow your vote.
We have one on Cal, if you like Gnips as town we can hammer him now.
##vote Caldias
I will investigate Ghost again if there is another night and I reach another day.
##vote caldias
15 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:basically. I spent all the morning waiting for that answer from Ebon so I had to think about both possibilities. Imagine why I am not so excited about the setup despite agreeing it is an interesting one.
Framers are framers. Not tailors.
Normal town
Insane cop = anti town vice versa
Framed town
Insane cop = town vice versa
Just now, EbonHawk said:Framers are framers. Not tailors.
Normal town
Insane cop = anti town vice versa
Framed town
Insane cop = town vice versa
That's a tailor, right? Framer provides anti-town, always, no matter the cop, no matter the actual alignment. That's what I found at least.
Thats also hammer ebon.
Hammer time
Caldias has been killed...
The group noticing cals blaster holster wasn't shut, starting to suspect him of being one of the killers...
they each buy him 10 shots of absinthe, after downing all 60 mad, ovi, and, gnips each fire one blaster bolt and he explodes in firey death
He was scum, back up framer
@Madaghmire - (0) -
@ovinomanc3r - (0) -
@Lord Preyer - (0) -
@GhostofNobodyInParticular - (0) -
Night begins
Edited by EbonHawk
7 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:That's a tailor, right? Framer provides anti-town, always, no matter the cop, no matter the actual alignment. That's what I found at least.
Correct in all games with just a framer, insane cop while after in Order of Operations, has an ability which takes precedent
Framer and tailor are variations of the same role. In this game scum van target themselves
Apologies, had to go round my Grandparents this afternoon, just this second got home. Day starting shortly!
Ovi has died, it seems someone fancied that lovely dantooine wool coat he was wearing..
He was town cop
Day has begun
2 to hammer
I’ll start this day straight off by apologising for not being a nearly good enough player! Not only have my theories and deductions been off point, my reveal poorly judged and my accusations misplaced and (particularly poor) my votes for lynching lacking but through so doing I freely (though inadvertently and sadly!) admit to having risked contributing to Town running astray!
Thankfully better players than I have had their hands more firmly on the tiller and so produced a good result against Cal (who was near the bottom of my threat assessment thus compounding my failure in this).
Worst of all though, I fear that my poor play could very well be read as scuminess and thus I am the logical target for the endgame now. This is rotten because a lynch of me will lead to a scum victory but I acknowledge the reasons to lynch me (teach me a lesson I so richly deserve for starters!) outweigh the reasons to trust me - especially when my judgement and play have been so poor.
I am Vanilla Town who has played poorly and left an impression of scuminess as a result that now threatens Town’s chances. For this, and for not actually helping the way I so wanted to, I’m sorry. I will try to ‘git gud’ for the future so as not to be such a hinderance.
For what it’s worth, I’m going to try to help Town” by creating the full quote lists of both mads and GNIPs posts. At least this is the kind of job that I hope even a Clousseau like me wont screw up!
18 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:I’ll start this day straight off by apologising for not being a nearly good enough player! Not only have my theories and deductions been off point, my reveal poorly judged and my accusations misplaced and (particularly poor) my votes for lynching lacking but through so doing I freely (though inadvertently and sadly!) admit to having risked contributing to Town running astray!
Thankfully better players than I have had their hands more firmly on the tiller and so produced a good result against Cal (who was near the bottom of my threat assessment thus compounding my failure in this).
Worst of all though, I fear that my poor play could very well be read as scuminess and thus I am the logical target for the endgame now. This is rotten because a lynch of me will lead to a scum victory but I acknowledge the reasons to lynch me (teach me a lesson I so richly deserve for starters!) outweigh the reasons to trust me - especially when my judgement and play have been so poor.
I am Vanilla Town who has played poorly and left an impression of scuminess as a result that now threatens Town’s chances. For this, and for not actually helping the way I so wanted to, I’m sorry. I will try to ‘git gud’ for the future so as not to be such a hinderance.
Well, this reads pretty genuine. Let me ask you, what sanity do you think Ovi had?
Thanks. Heartfelt as I wanted so badly to be a better player in this game and actually exclaimed “yes!” when I read that I was Vanilla Town because I thought it would help me develop... Quite.
Can I answer your question after I’ve finished the reread and quote-a-thon?
On 7/30/2018 at 9:16 PM, Madaghmire said:I’m ready for anything
All @Madaghmire posts
On 8/2/2018 at 7:57 PM, Madaghmire said:Well this should be interesting. Who wants to lynch podracer for screwing up the last one? I feel like thats as good a place to start as any.
##vote @PodRacer
Lets see that frowny face
On 8/2/2018 at 8:23 PM, Madaghmire said:Oh right, ##role confirmed
On 8/2/2018 at 9:52 PM, Madaghmire said:Thats just what he wants you to think.
On 8/2/2018 at 9:53 PM, Madaghmire said:You better believe it baby. Ima introduce you to the world of autoerotic asphyxiation.
On 8/2/2018 at 10:09 PM, Madaghmire said:Mmmm.
#unvote
For the moment.
On 8/3/2018 at 4:31 AM, Madaghmire said:Being good or bad wouldn’t factor in, and you previous results would have no influence on the RNG. Setup says 2 scum, your chances of being scum this game are 2/7, same as everyone else.
On 8/3/2018 at 1:09 PM, Madaghmire said:Solid as anything I’ve seen on D1.
##vote LP
On 8/3/2018 at 2:29 PM, Madaghmire said:Ovi’s should be the only vote under my name by my count.
On 8/3/2018 at 2:30 PM, Madaghmire said:Speaking of, Ovi, you have something better than trying to quick lynch under what is clearly an error?
On 8/3/2018 at 3:06 PM, Madaghmire said:Currently waiting on Ovi to explain his vote. Trying to quick lynch there, if thats what it was, feels like an oportunistic scum move.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:06 PM, Madaghmire said:##unvote LP
On 8/3/2018 at 3:11 PM, Madaghmire said:Not a fan of the statistics defense pod? For the reasons I mentioned, or for others?
On 8/3/2018 at 3:13 PM, Madaghmire said:Your words can wound, Ovi. Why?
On 8/3/2018 at 3:24 PM, Madaghmire said:Thats...more information than I wanted.
Processing.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:27 PM, Madaghmire said:Ok, so, hmm...
We can kill Wookie, which allows to Pod to test his sanity. Its still not 100% accurate, (because of the framer) but it gives him a good idea. It also lets the other cop know if they can trust their own results.
Of course, scum will likey target their nightkill on a claimed cop, in which case the test is a waste.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:39 PM, Madaghmire said:Did you read the setup document?
We have two cops. On sane, one insane. The sane one gets true results, the insane one gets opposite results. They are not told which they are.
Pod has claimed cop, and said he got a scum result from his pregame investigation of Jabbawookie. By killing Jabbawookie, and seeing his flop, Pod would be able to determine what his sanity is. It would also allow our second cop to know their sanity, by process of elimination.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:43 PM, Madaghmire said:The only thing staying my hand right now is that I don’t want to kill poor jabba d1 again. Poor guy has barely gotten a chance to play.
On 8/3/2018 at 5:54 PM, Madaghmire said:You have yet to issue a defensible reason to lynch me. You jumped on train that didnt even exist and when asked why you were just like “shrug, meme”
Thats not scum hunting, thats trying to take an experienced player off the board.
Yes, I meant wasted in respect to Podracer, who would likely be dead.
What does “we lynch jabba, we fail” mean?
On 8/3/2018 at 6:25 PM, Madaghmire said:Theres no reason for a second cop to claim. Even in Ovi’s fever dream, theres no reason to claim, the cop just needs to push his investigation result.
Ovi, anti-town would be a great reason, if only it applied here.
On 8/3/2018 at 6:37 PM, Madaghmire said:I believe hes fabricating an argument
On 8/3/2018 at 6:42 PM, Madaghmire said:So hang one of us and test it. For obvious reasons, I
##vote jabbawookie
because Ovis the crazy one.
On 8/4/2018 at 5:30 PM, Madaghmire said:Well, no surprise there. Unfortunate that Pod appears to have been either the insane cop or Jabbawookie was framed. I think it more likely tho, that Pod was insane, and I was framed, because I think I was a better framing target for scum. Hats off on that.
Ovi, and results you’d care to share from last night?
On 8/4/2018 at 6:40 PM, Madaghmire said:Well back to traditional methods then. Sadly, due to the double cop claim its harder to draw conclusions from yesterdays votes. Im taking my daughter to the zoo but ill be back later with more.
On 8/5/2018 at 6:46 AM, Madaghmire said:Yeah tonights a lost cause for me. I’m full on tanked. Zoo to bedtime to my friends house for secret hitler (best hitler ive ever played.) Right into karaokee. Man i love karaokee. Im still out. I’ll wake up tomorrow and take a shot at finding the ****** who framed me ?
On 8/5/2018 at 7:12 AM, Madaghmire said:Its a social deduction game, like mafia.
On 8/5/2018 at 3:46 PM, Madaghmire said:I am trying to make heads or tails of yesterday, and I’m coming up with depressingly little. Plus we’re at lylo.
Givens;
Ovi is our last remaining cop, lack of counterclaim at this point proves it. Our only confirmed town. He also has an investigation result he seems unwilling to share at this juncture. I presume because he doesn’t want us getting distracted by what may be an unreliable result.
The votes on
Gnips hammered Wookie. But given the time constraint, this is what a town player should do.
L.P. said he didn’t want to vote jabba, yet clearly was about to at days end. But as with Gnips, this makes sense. Holding off the vote however, leads me to think he’s more likely town, since scum would have no motivation at all to hold off the vote since it was a town player on the block.
Cal also voted Jabba, but with nine minutes left it looks to me like he just chose the target with the most votes.
I voted Jabba, because at that point it appeared we were at a binary choice and I knew I was town, so the odds were better for us if we lynched Jabba.
Pod is dead and confirmed town.
Conclusions drawn; I don’t have anything special. I like LP for townie more than Gnips or Cal based on the vote records but everyones vote has an obvious town explaination. Numbers say that at least one scum had to be in on the vote tho.
Other votes over the day;
Gnips voted LP for following Ovi’s vote on Cal.
Ovi voted Cal for being out then returning to say nothing substantial.
Ovi voted me after the mod error because he needed a smokescreen to push his cop result without alerting scum as to the reasoning, but that was blown up.
I don’t think Cal voted besides Jabba? Did I miss it?
I voted Pod at days beginning, but pulled off because his response felt town to me.
I also liked Gnips argument on LP but dropped my vote on his offer to claim, as I didn’t want to see a claim.
I’m still mulling it over. I was hoping putting it all down would lead me somewhere, but maybe I’m still too hungover to see it.
On 8/6/2018 at 12:48 AM, Madaghmire said:Those of you who are town and looking at me, just ask yourself;
”If I had a frame option, which player of the starting 7 would be most likely to draw an investigation?”
I understand it looks bad, and normally I’d just try to extract the most information value possible from my death, but we are sitting on lylo and thats not an option.
On 8/6/2018 at 3:13 PM, Madaghmire said:Its a little flawed, but I think any plan we come up with will have kinks given the setup. To delve a bit;
1. Scum must kill one cop- Completely right. So we should examine why they chose Podracer, and I see a few possibilities; (no order)
a) They just picked one of you two, and it happened to be Pod
b) Pod was the sane one, and Jabba was framed pregame. Scum decided to kill the sane cop. Especially since given Jabba’s flop we would be more likely to believe that Ovi was the sane cop.
c) Ovi is sane and I was framed, or he’s insane, but either way they felt he would push me at daybreak given how yesterday ended, and they felt they could leave him alive to do it
d) Scum felt better about their chances of predicting Ovi’s investigations than Podracer’s in terms of framing. This doesn’t mean they were right with their target, but I’m guessing at state of mind
Of these, I’m not sure which I feel best about. It may be there are multiple elements at play.
2. I dont know how obvious an investigation target I was on N1. After all, you clearly didn’t investigate me again, and we can’t be sure that Pod would have, even if we agree it would have been a good play. He may have had a different read he wanted to test.
3. As likely as anyone, I suppose. But more likely than LP, who didn’t vote? Or Cal, who is just generally dangerous? Or myself, who you just named as an obvious choice for Pod second action? I mean, ostensibly you must be right, since you investigated him.
This is a really wheels within wheels ******* setup, and its frustrating the **** out of me right now. I love it.
Lets make some assumptions and see if they make sense when looked at from a scum perspective;
Ovi is insane, Jabba was framed D1;
It doesn’t matter which cop is killed. For scum, both cops now should be leaning away from their actual sanities. (Pod looks insane, Ovi looks sane) In this scenario, both myself and Gnips must be town, which makes LP and Cal our scum team.
Ovi is sane, I was framed D1;
Podracer dies for the reasons I elucidated above in scenario C. Gnips is either scum or framed, depending on how likely a target you believe him to be for framing. In this scenario, its difficult to know where to go with the vote.
I’m not addressing the possibilty I’m scum again, because I know I’m not, and I need to get this off before days end and vote. However, Ovi and our third teammate will I’m sure be cognizant of the possibility. If you believe Ovi is sane and I was not framed, you clearly have to vote me, but I urge you not to since then we will lose.
On 8/6/2018 at 3:24 PM, Madaghmire said:Wait framers are tailors?
On 8/6/2018 at 3:30 PM, Madaghmire said:Ugh running out of time. Ovi, you’re the only confirmed town player. I’ll follow your vote.
On 8/6/2018 at 3:31 PM, Madaghmire said:We have one on Cal, if you like Gnips as town we can hammer him now.
On 8/6/2018 at 3:44 PM, Madaghmire said:##vote caldias
On 8/6/2018 at 3:49 PM, Madaghmire said:Thats also hammer ebon.
34 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:Well, this reads pretty genuine. Let me ask you, what sanity do you think Ovi had?
On 7/30/2018 at 11:35 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:I'm in.
Time may not be on my side, but I'll fight it every step of the way.
All @GhostofNobodyInParticular Posts
On 8/2/2018 at 10:56 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:##role confirmed
On 8/3/2018 at 11:22 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Why? Do you actually have a reason, or are you following ovi because he has one? If you have a reason, what is it? If it was ovi's, why did you not list it before? You voted very quickly (29 minute difference) on his heels with no explanation. I realize you already said you suspected him, but you didn't vote then, so why now? Because he now has a vote? This implies you are trying to get somebody lynched fast, and opted for the one somebody else had made a case against. It also implies that you may not want to be seen as building the case/leading the train against him, which means you fear for your safety if he turns up town.
Taken together, these imply that you are scum.
I admit that Cal's action are probably worth voting D1, but without any discussion or actual scum hunting, I find your sudden vote on him (putting him at L-2 no less) suspicious.
Since it is the best lead I have, I shall
##vote LP
until I hear a satisfactory explanation.
On 8/3/2018 at 2:41 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Yeah, joke voting with 4 hours left is an odd thing to do Ovi.
@Lord Preyer - my point was that you voted using somebody's logic and didn't even post anything discussing it. That is what threw me off.
Cal is also acting suspicious, since he is doing the same thing, and even posting random bits of flavor to seem present. At least you are contributing to the discussion in some way.
On 8/3/2018 at 2:59 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:But you did vote. LP is at L-2 because of it.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:00 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:@Caldias - never mind. I saw Mad's vote and for some reason thought it was yours. Sorry.
On 8/3/2018 at 3:13 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Why?
On 8/3/2018 at 3:32 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:That would mean that not only is Jabba a scum 3 times in a row in his first 4(?) games but that he is also a framer 2/3 of those times. . . if that is so, Jabba is one heck of an odds defier.
How? If you were paranoid you'd be getting reverse results. If he were framed, a normal cop would get 'scum', due to the frame. Would't a paranoid cop be getting 'town'?
On 8/3/2018 at 4:28 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:I will probably be unavailable until day's end.
Since the Jabba thing needs time and discussion to resolve, I shall not risk voting him. Thus, I shall keep my vote on LP for lack of anywhere else to put it.
On 8/3/2018 at 6:54 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:So why did you suggest that the second cop claim?
On 8/3/2018 at 6:55 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:With 5 minutes left, I shall
##vote Jabba
On 8/5/2018 at 11:14 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:I've been busy.
I am not sure who to go for. Mad I am suspicious of, due to your result. LP I am suspicious of, but only slightly, and largely due to the arguments of Mad, which could mean (since Mad is suspicious to me) that LP is clear or Mad's partner. I am less suspicious of Cal, and that only for his willingness to lynch either Mad or Jabba, though of course I get why. You I take as confirmed town because of the lack of counter-claim.
That leaves a 2/3 chance of hitting a scum if I vote for any of the first three I mentioned. If I had to vote this instant, I would vote Mad on the (albeit somewhat undermined) strength of your pre-game result.
I will be away for the next few hours, but shall be back in plenty of time to be here to vote.
On 8/6/2018 at 9:47 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:It doesn't.
Nope.
How?
On 8/6/2018 at 9:53 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:So, I am now most suspicious of LP and Mad. LP is constantly harping on me as a good option to lynch, purely on the basis of averaged out suspicion (largely his and Mad's). Mad, still due to ovi's result, but less so. His argument doesn't help much, since were he the framer he wouldn't be able to frame himself anyway, and would need a good defense. Together, they may be subtly colluding.
How do I classify as anti-town? What makes me anti-town, and what makes you think I am anti-town?
On 8/6/2018 at 10:11 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:No. Either you investigated me, in which case I was framed or you are insane, or you think my actions are anti-town. If the latter, what have I done to cause this assumption? I've been absent more than usual, sure, but that doesn't make me anti-town.
On 8/6/2018 at 10:24 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:Then either I was framed or you are insane. I am a vanilla townie.
So far both of your results were anti-town.
Pod's one was anti-town.Pod's turned out to be town. So either Jabba was framed or Pod was insane. I know I am town.
If Pod was sane, then Mad and I are clear. If Pod was insane, then Mad is still 50/50 framed/scum. Given both Jabba's innocence and mine, I am inclined to believe that Jabba was framed and you are insane. In which case Mad is clear, and LP is the one I would vote for.
It occurs to me, though, that LP would be a decent choice regardless of your mental state, since he has been going after me all day. If he framed me, he could have been trying to raise suspicion in other people's minds to make them more likely to lynch me, in the case that you didn't investigate me.
I have no idea if this helps in any way, but I figured I would put it out there for public review.
On 8/6/2018 at 2:33 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:With only an hour and a half left, I have to vote, so I'll follow your musing since they were generally better than mine and
##vote @Caldias
On 7/30/2018 at 11:44 PM, Lord Preyer said:“Though I know that time is not my friend/I’ll fight it to the end/hoping to keep this best of moments...”
? ??
As part of my penance for poor play, here are all of my posts (minus last two quote-a-thons) - it’s a good job we know there’s no Jester as otherwise me publishing this sorry list alone would have been grounds enough to say I was inviting lynching!
On 8/1/2018 at 9:55 PM, Lord Preyer said:@SmurfWedge @TheCallum @AdmiralRyan EAGLE SQUADRON! Come play Mafia!
On 8/2/2018 at 11:39 PM, Lord Preyer said:##role confirmed
On 8/2/2018 at 11:51 PM, Lord Preyer said:So guys, here we are again, Sector 1313 on a dark and pylon-lightning night...
Still, it sure beats spending the day avoiding the in-flight pics flooding my data feeds that trigger back memories of the Lusankya...
—
So, what we know so far is:
- the nature of the set up
- the possibility of some <ahem> ‘bad blood’ from recent games
Thus I’d like to suggest that given our limited numbers and the dangers inherent thereof perhaps we might (however temporary!) try to set aside blood feuding for this game and go straight to scum-directed hunting and lynching! (So I guess that means that @EbonHawk should try to resist mod-killing @PodRacer D1! ? )
On 8/3/2018 at 7:40 AM, Lord Preyer said:
On 8/3/2018 at 7:42 AM, Lord Preyer said:Make mine a Banta-Blood Fizz please.
On 8/3/2018 at 7:46 AM, Lord Preyer said:If it does come down to picking a (semi)random lynch I suggest we do not select @The Jabbawookie On grounds that it would be nice for him to get a game in past D1 especially if it were to turn out that for once he has ended up on the statistically probable side and is thus actually Town!
Still, if he acts scummy/suspicious than of course he should die but I don’t think we should prioritise him for a (semi)random lynch.
On 8/3/2018 at 7:55 AM, Lord Preyer said:Guys - without chat we’re hurtling towards lynching blind. Only 11hrs to go. I know the hour is late for our American cousins but without actual contributions we’ll be faced with a real problem.
On 8/3/2018 at 7:58 AM, Lord Preyer said:Right now my suspicions* are @GhostofNobodyInParticular And @Caldias for a combination of quietness and giving money to GW...
* = backed by their Pink Panther Detective Agency Guarantee Of Investigative Accuracy - our motto: “We’ve been almost right before, and for almost the right reasons too!”
On 8/3/2018 at 8:33 AM, Lord Preyer said:##vote @Caldias
On 8/3/2018 at 10:45 AM, Lord Preyer said:Oh @PodRacer never change Pod, never change...
On 8/3/2018 at 1:30 PM, Lord Preyer said:Because in the absence of anything else happening/anyone else saying anything action had to be taken and pressure mounted. I was already considering between the two and @ovinomanc3r ‘s argument seemed better than just taking a name out of a hat. I clicked ‘like’ and then voted and then went to work - hence the timing.
As for your point GNIPs about “actual scum hunting” this is what I was actually attempting - regardless of its efficacy (or lackthereof) I didn’t see very much/any of it happening previously and was acutely aware of the short clock (and the US time difference) and so feared we would run out of time and so added a vote to add pressure to lead to SOMETHING!
And something is what I got!
At least some of us are talking now which is good - although I note my old pal @Caldias is still focused on propping up the bar...
On 8/3/2018 at 1:54 PM, Lord Preyer said:If only @EbonHawk but alas I fear it’s me soon to be under the hammer!
On 8/3/2018 at 3:06 PM, Lord Preyer said:I am willing to claim if I am going to be lynched.
On 8/3/2018 at 5:28 PM, Lord Preyer said:I would switch my vote to Jabba now for the same reason but feel that lynching him D1 would just be so super harsh to the poor guy. In a way I’d rather you’d lynch me so he would at least get to play (although I’d still much prefer us to lynch scum!!).
I am Vanilla Town.
On 8/3/2018 at 5:48 PM, Lord Preyer said:##unvote @Caldias
I do not want us to miss a lynch and seeing as no one is following me down this path as prepared to switch.
On 8/3/2018 at 6:10 PM, Lord Preyer said:Apologies.
On 8/3/2018 at 6:37 PM, Lord Preyer said:Ovi, do you mean to say you are also a cop and you are also pushing a result... on Mads?
Sorry if I got this wrong - I feel that this level of high stakes and expert play requirements is leaving me really flailing. Apologies.
On 8/3/2018 at 6:41 PM, Lord Preyer said:Am just trying to get to grips with this (rather than merely being a sheep!):
- we have two cops who
- one of them is insane
- it seems we have two claims
- but the framer means we could have reads wrong too
- so just backing the cop claims may help us/or not help us at all actually!
Is that what is happening?
On 8/3/2018 at 6:55 PM, Lord Preyer said:Arrgh! The one thing I really didn’t want to have to do was vote Jabba today!
On 8/5/2018 at 1:12 AM, Lord Preyer said:Hi guys, just packing it in after a party. Will be back on in the morning.
On 8/5/2018 at 10:26 AM, Lord Preyer said:Good morning.
Here’s my take:
- I am Vanilla Town (apologies for claiming too early to Town’s detriment - sorry especially @PodRacer I fear you were all too right!)
- @ovinomanc3r as a Cop seems probable to me (not least because of the risk/reward a cop claim/counterclaim scenario would have created)
- Therefore my primary suspects pool becomes @Caldias @Madaghmire @GhostofNobodyInParticular
- Which shifts the odds if I just chose randomly to 2/3
- I don’t know to what extent I can trust any information coming out of Ovi based on his scans though because of the sane/insane and framer dynamics at work
- Still, the jabba vs Mads “experiment” was run with Jabba turning out Town. Mads could have been framed but that still leads me to act towards Mads with heightened suspicion (whilst acknowledging the difference between suspicion and probability)
- Then there is the GNIPs hammer on Jabba set against Cal’s willingness to run a train against EITHER Jabba or Mads (which at this point at least shades Cal a little more Town in my mind in comparative terms but I need to double check this)
- So now I’ll go back and do another reread and see if I get any further
Sorry if this is all just too obvious but after all that Next Level play I feel I need to keep my feet on the ground!
Cheers!
On 8/5/2018 at 4:54 PM, Lord Preyer said:Thanks for the analysis @Madaghmire - helpful.
My current read on the players is:
1) Mads - because of Ovi and D1 (but this may change when Ovi weighs in)
2) GNIPs - the hammer (although as Mads says there is a good justification for this)
3) Cal - who feels Town to me from my reread
4) Ovi - because the cop/no other cop counter claim seems to make him safest.
Somewhat thin I admit!
So, I wonder if we might end up settling on a lowest common denominator scum suspicion of @GhostofNobodyInParticular - not anyone’s top scum suspicion but enough of a number two by enough people that (if backed up by @ovinomanc3r ) might make for a sensible lynch (in the absence of being able to make a stronger case against another player).
I am not voting yet but wanted to give my take on state of play.
On 8/5/2018 at 6:18 PM, Lord Preyer said:Thanks @Madaghmire and @Caldias - even if one (god forbid - both!) of you prove to be scum this is a super helpful guide to the possibilities and logic trees required to get to a more informed decision - not to mention how to play better as scum if that’s what you turn out to be! Regardless, it’s appreciated!
On 8/6/2018 at 1:45 AM, Lord Preyer said:This last thought by Cal is a better expression of the idea I was trying to get across earlier about not going after my first choice fear (Mads) and instead potentially settling on GNIPs as a second preference shared agreement lynch. If each of us has a varying first preference lynch but we are all agreed on GNIPs as the secondmost likely Mafia then that might be the right call.
On 8/6/2018 at 8:17 AM, Lord Preyer said:In the cold light of morning I’ve realised my idea is not quite the Kick The Can Down The Road compromise masterpiece that Nobel peace prizes win because of a super basic flaw in my maths.
I had thought that ‘all’ we needed to do was get it right tonight and then we could have a margin of error in our next night but of course after a lynch and Mafia kill we’re still on ‘play perfectly’ mode with our next night.
Sorry! Basic error. The ‘at least we all agree on GNIPs’ angle may still apply but a very basic part of my reasoning was wrong and I wanted to acknowledge that
So we’re back to the question of who do three of us agree are Mafia. My suspicions list remains:
1) Mads
2) GNIPs
3) Cal
4) Ovi
On 8/6/2018 at 8:18 AM, Lord Preyer said:Am going to do penance by doing a(nother) complete reread now!
1 hour ago, Lord Preyer said:I’ll start this day straight off by apologising for not being a nearly good enough player! Not only have my theories and deductions been off point, my reveal poorly judged and my accusations misplaced and (particularly poor) my votes for lynching lacking but through so doing I freely (though inadvertently and sadly!) admit to having risked contributing to Town running astray!
Thankfully better players than I have had their hands more firmly on the tiller and so produced a good result against Cal (who was near the bottom of my threat assessment thus compounding my failure in this).
Worst of all though, I fear that my poor play could very well be read as scuminess and thus I am the logical target for the endgame now. This is rotten because a lynch of me will lead to a scum victory but I acknowledge the reasons to lynch me (teach me a lesson I so richly deserve for starters!) outweigh the reasons to trust me - especially when my judgement and play have been so poor.
I am Vanilla Town who has played poorly and left an impression of scuminess as a result that now threatens Town’s chances. For this, and for not actually helping the way I so wanted to, I’m sorry. I will try to ‘git gud’ for the future so as not to be such a hinderance.
1 hour ago, Lord Preyer said:For what it’s worth, I’m going to try to help Town” by creating the full quote lists of both mads and GNIPs posts. At least this is the kind of job that I hope even a Clousseau like me wont screw up!
20 minutes ago, Lord Preyer said:Thanks. Heartfelt as I wanted so badly to be a better player in this game and actually exclaimed “yes!” when I read that I was Vanilla Town because I thought it would help me develop... Quite.
Can I answer your question after I’ve finished the reread and quote-a-thon?
2 hours ago, Madaghmire said:Well, this reads pretty genuine. Let me ask you, what sanity do you think Ovi had?
The harder I try to answer this the more I appreciate the value of this question...
I *think* Ovi was sane and you were framed (by Cal before the game began as that would seem a very pro move).
I know that Ovi seemed to be leading us away from GNIPs towards the end but I wonder if that was a survival ploy of some kind. I also know that me saying I think Ovi was sane quite possibly further incriminates me as potentially scum but I have to give my honest appraisal of the situation!
After analysis, despite how well written LP’s post is, I think it has to be him. I wanted him to give his opinion on Ovi’s sanity to cement it in my mind, but I don’t think there’s really a need.
Ghost laid the first vote at Cals feet, and there is no reason for him to do that if he’s scum. He could have just waited it out.
Similarly, there’s no need for me to hammer if I were, given how tight up against the clock we were.
LP, meanwhile, hadnt been heard from in hours. Presumably since he was happy to let the clock run down.
Additionally, there are two like investigative results from Ovi. Both myself and Ghost show up antitown. But we know that can’t be the case, since theres only one scum left with Cal dead. At this point, I think the most likely truth is that Pod was sane and Jabba was framed, while Ovi was insane.
I feel very good about this. I want to hear from Gnips