3 hours ago, ovinomanc3r said:

3/5 inputs. @GhostofNobodyInParticular ?

I've been busy.

I am not sure who to go for. Mad I am suspicious of, due to your result. LP I am suspicious of, but only slightly, and largely due to the arguments of Mad, which could mean (since Mad is suspicious to me) that LP is clear or Mad's partner. I am less suspicious of Cal, and that only for his willingness to lynch either Mad or Jabba, though of course I get why. You I take as confirmed town because of the lack of counter-claim.

That leaves a 2/3 chance of hitting a scum if I vote for any of the first three I mentioned. If I had to vote this instant, I would vote Mad on the (albeit somewhat undermined) strength of your pre-game result.

I will be away for the next few hours, but shall be back in plenty of time to be here to vote.

Those of you who are town and looking at me, just ask yourself;

”If I had a frame option, which player of the starting 7 would be most likely to draw an investigation?”

I understand it looks bad, and normally I’d just try to extract the most information value possible from my death, but we are sitting on lylo and thats not an option.

17 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:

Those of you who are town and looking at me, just ask yourself;

”If I had a frame option, which player of the starting 7 would be most likely to draw an investigation?”

I understand it looks bad, and normally I’d just try to extract the most information value possible from my death, but we are sitting on lylo and thats not an option.

Honestly, lylo is the only reason I haven't voted for you already just to verify Ovi's sanity/paranoia. If I was scum, you'd definitely be my #1 choice for framing just based on your reputation, especially from the last game you were scum in. Jabba's record of being scum would also make him an excellent frame target.

This last thought by Cal is a better expression of the idea I was trying to get across earlier about not going after my first choice fear (Mads) and instead potentially settling on GNIPs as a second preference shared agreement lynch. If each of us has a varying first preference lynch but we are all agreed on GNIPs as the secondmost likely Mafia then that might be the right call.

In the cold light of morning I’ve realised my idea is not quite the Kick The Can Down The Road compromise masterpiece that Nobel peace prizes win because of a super basic flaw in my maths.

I had thought that ‘all’ we needed to do was get it right tonight and then we could have a margin of error in our next night but of course after a lynch and Mafia kill we’re still on ‘play perfectly’ mode with our next night.

Sorry! Basic error. The ‘at least we all agree on GNIPs’ angle may still apply but a very basic part of my reasoning was wrong and I wanted to acknowledge that

So we’re back to the question of who do three of us agree are Mafia. My suspicions list remains:

1) Mads

2) GNIPs

3) Cal

4) Ovi

Am going to do penance by doing a(nother) complete reread now!

@GhostofNobodyInParticular - anti town

8 hours ago, Lord Preyer said:

GNIPs as the secondmost likely Mafia then that might be the right call.

It doesn't.

1 hour ago, Lord Preyer said:

The ‘at least we all agree on GNIPs’ angle may still apply

Nope.

31 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:

@GhostofNobodyInParticular - anti town

How?

Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

How?

I don't understand this question.

So, I am now most suspicious of LP and Mad. LP is constantly harping on me as a good option to lynch, purely on the basis of averaged out suspicion (largely his and Mad's). Mad, still due to ovi's result, but less so. His argument doesn't help much, since were he the framer he wouldn't be able to frame himself anyway, and would need a good defense. Together, they may be subtly colluding.

Just now, ovinomanc3r said:

I don't understand this question.

How do I classify as anti-town? What makes me anti-town, and what makes you think I am anti-town?

2 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

How do I classify as anti-town? What makes me anti-town, and what makes you think I am anti-town?

Are you kidding?

10 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:

Are you kidding?

No. Either you investigated me, in which case I was framed or you are insane, or you think my actions are anti-town. If the latter, what have I done to cause this assumption? I've been absent more than usual, sure, but that doesn't make me anti-town.

2 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

No. Either you investigated me, in which case I was framed or you are insane, or you think my actions are anti-town. If the latter, what have I done to cause this assumption? I've been absent more than usual, sure, but that doesn't make me anti-town.

I investigated you. Anti town is one of the result I can get. Otherwise I would say you're scum.

Just now, ovinomanc3r said:

I investigated you. Anti town is one of the result I can get. Otherwise I would say you're scum.

Then either I was framed or you are insane. I am a vanilla townie.

So far both of your results were anti-town.
Pod's one was anti-town.

Pod's turned out to be town. So either Jabba was framed or Pod was insane. I know I am town.

If Pod was sane, then Mad and I are clear. If Pod was insane, then Mad is still 50/50 framed/scum. Given both Jabba's innocence and mine, I am inclined to believe that Jabba was framed and you are insane. In which case Mad is clear, and LP is the one I would vote for.

It occurs to me, though, that LP would be a decent choice regardless of your mental state, since he has been going after me all day. If he framed me, he could have been trying to raise suspicion in other people's minds to make them more likely to lynch me, in the case that you didn't investigate me.

I have no idea if this helps in any way, but I figured I would put it out there for public review.

It is not like I am 100% sure but with the uncertainty this game provides I would bet Ghost is town.

Reason: I didn't die.

1. Scum must kill one cop.

2. Pod has an relatively obvious target: Madaghmire. I will remark relatively as it is just an hypothesis. Even I was about to investigate him again also. I think a second check was interesting.

3. I also think Ghost was another likely target as the hammer on Jabba.

Even being able to manipulate it to prevent a result on a scum mate is good for scum, no matter if Mad is scum or not. Allowing the widest scenario for lynching is the best to take advantage from a lylo situation.

Not the greatest soil to build a house but one of the best I could find.

@Madaghmire - (0) -

@ovinomanc3r - (0)  -

@Caldias - (0) -

@Lord Preyer - (0) -

@GhostofNobodyInParticular - (0) -

Day 2

3 to hammer  . 



Basically the idea is if I am insane why not let me get a town result on a scum Ghost (what I didn't). And if I am sane why not kill me before I get one.

Also interesting d1 train on LP. Considering Jabba, Pod and me were town and LP couldn't vote himself. There is was at least 1 scum after him. Cal did not vote him but not because he didn't agree.

So LP is scum and a mate thought it was better to vote him (Mad) or waited to see if something changed (Cal). Or LP is town and they tried to lynch a townie. In the last case, Cal could just try to avoid looks suspicious putting him at l-1. Ghost seems weird as scum in both cases as he started it. Not saying it is impossible but things stack against Ghost being scum to me.

He also didn't contribute too much but he was quite reasonable.

Against Mad being scum all I have is statistics. 2/3 he is town. Whether I am insane or he was framed.

Cal was weird during d1 with flavor stuff that didn't feel right for him. Gink's advice about looking for how they say things and not what they say points to him.

2 minutes ago, ovinomanc3r said:

C al was weird during d1 with flavor stuff that didn't feel right for him. Gink's advice about looking for how they say things and not what they say p  oints to him.

With only an hour and a half left, I have to vote, so I'll follow your musing since they were generally better than mine and

##vote @Caldias

I'm here. Was working things out on my phone. Posting this in case I get scum bussed in case it helps.

I half expected you to check him again, but your results for GNiP is interesting none the less. I know you can't trust me as confirmed town, but I know I am so this is from that perspective.

Either Mads or GNiP or both are scum. Just process of elimination there. Which tells me Ovi is sane and one of them must have been framed, or both are scum.

I understand GNiPs perspective, but that's the only possible way, with the info I have, that it works.

@EbonHawk can you tell us if town is framed would that person read as town by a paranoid cop? I couldn't tell, really.

.

More data:

If I am insane: Cal and LP are scum.

If I am sane:

1. Both Ghost and Mad as scum seem ridiculous. I mean, did I spot both and also avoid the framer?

2. Both Ghost and Mad would be possible as Mad was a good pre-game target and Ghost was also a good one for n1.

3. I hardly think Ghost is scum given my night result.

4. Mad with Cal or LP as scum seem equally possible.

20 minutes ago, Caldias said:

.

@EbonHawk can you tell us if town is framed would that person read as town by a paranoid cop? I couldn't tell, really.

.

Framer may frame himself.

Also framer is not a framer. It is actually a tailor. So the result is inverted.

Town > scum

Scum > town

F town > town

F scum > scum

1 hour ago, ovinomanc3r said:

1. Scum must kill one cop.

2. Pod has an relatively obvious target: Madaghmire. I will remark relatively as it is just an hypothesis. Even I was about to investigate him again also. I think a second check was interesting.

3. I also think Ghost was another likely target as the hammer on Jabba.

Even being able to manipulate it to prevent a result on a scum mate is good for scum, no matter if Mad is scum or not. Allowing the widest scenario for lynching is the best to take advantage from a lylo situation.

Not the greatest soil to build a house but one of the best I could find.

Its a little flawed, but I think any plan we come up with will have kinks given the setup. To delve a bit;

1. Scum must kill one cop- Completely right. So we should examine why they chose Podracer, and I see a few possibilities; (no order)

a) They just picked one of you two, and it happened to be Pod

b) Pod was the sane one, and Jabba was framed pregame. Scum decided to kill the sane cop. Especially since given Jabba’s flop we would be more likely to believe that Ovi was the sane cop.

c) Ovi is sane and I was framed, or he’s insane, but either way they felt he would push me at daybreak given how yesterday ended, and they felt they could leave him alive to do it

d) Scum felt better about their chances of predicting Ovi’s investigations than Podracer’s in terms of framing. This doesn’t mean they were right with their target, but I’m guessing at state of mind

Of these, I’m not sure which I feel best about. It may be there are multiple elements at play.

2. I dont know how obvious an investigation target I was on N1. After all, you clearly didn’t investigate me again, and we can’t be sure that Pod would have, even if we agree it would have been a good play. He may have had a different read he wanted to test.

3. As likely as anyone, I suppose. But more likely than LP, who didn’t vote? Or Cal, who is just generally dangerous? Or myself, who you just named as an obvious choice for Pod second action? I mean, ostensibly you must be right, since you investigated him.

This is a really wheels within wheels ******* setup, and its frustrating the **** out of me right now. I love it.

Lets make some assumptions and see if they make sense when looked at from a scum perspective;

Ovi is insane, Jabba was framed D1;

It doesn’t matter which cop is killed. For scum, both cops now should be leaning away from their actual sanities. (Pod looks insane, Ovi looks sane) In this scenario, both myself and Gnips must be town, which makes LP and Cal our scum team.

Ovi is sane, I was framed D1;

Podracer dies for the reasons I elucidated above in scenario C. Gnips is either scum or framed, depending on how likely a target you believe him to be for framing. In this scenario, its difficult to know where to go with the vote.

I’m not addressing the possibilty I’m scum again, because I know I’m not, and I need to get this off before days end and vote. However, Ovi and our third teammate will I’m sure be cognizant of the possibility. If you believe Ovi is sane and I was not framed, you clearly have to vote me, but I urge you not to since then we will lose.

38 minutes ago, Caldias said:

@EbonHawk can         you tell us if town is framed would that person read as town by a paranoid cop? I couldn't tell, really.   

Town framed =

Sane cop = anti town

Insane cop = town