Removing a die with the Optimized Prototype ability to flat out delete a shield on your opponent. Let me see if I get this right:

1) I roll 3 red dice, all three are hits. I am shooting at quickdraw who has LWF.

2) BEFORE QD rolls defense dice, I cancel one of my red dice (which happens to be a hit), QD removes a shield and fires at me.

3) Now, QD rolls his two defense dice. He sees I only have two red dice down so he does NOT roll a third LWF die.

One, is this all correct? Is the timing correct? Is this the most optimal strategy? Am I better off NOT removing the hit?

Thanks.

Quickdraw (during an attack) does not occur until step 9, meaning, not until the entire attack and all its effects have been applied. So the order would be.

1. Toss the 3 dice

2. Cancel the red die. Quickdraw loses shield but cannot fire yet.

3. Finish the attack. If there is no range 3, then yes, quickdraw does not roll a 3rd die, as lightweight frame cannot proc.

4. Whether or not the attack proper hits, quickdraw makes a revenge shot on the basis of that optimized prototype eating a shield.

The best strategy against Quickdraw with a 3 dice prototype is to engage at less than range 3 such that you can eat a shield (typically with a bad result) and hope for the 2v2 attack to hit, which it probably will (especially after saving your good results), as most Quickdraw builds do not have evade tokens, and even if Quickdraw has a focus, she has to roll 2 paint in order to dodge. Of course, Palp can throw a wrench into the mix, but as one who fields a lot of Quickdraw, the Optimized Prototype is a piece that I remind myself to be very careful against, as often it will make sure there is only 1 revenge shot a game.

Range does not matter. You rolled 3 die then cancelled one, leaving two. QD rolls 2 defense dice. 2 defense dice vs 2 attack dice means LWF does not trigger. QD's revenge shot comes after the attack completes, though, so QD could potentially take no damage from the attack, other than losing a shield from the OpPro effect.

12 minutes ago, JasonCole said:

Range does not matter.

yes it does. if you're attacking at range 3 w primaries QD will get 3 greens. Regardless of light weight frame or OP dice cancellation.

20 minutes ago, PanchoX1 said:

yes it does. if you're attacking at range 3 w primaries QD will get 3 greens. Regardless of light weight frame or OP dice cancellation.

For some reason, I also have to tell opponents this. "You mean that you get to keep a range bonus just like me?!!!! Unfair!"

Let's break out the dice calc.

As others have mentioned, spending a die lowers you to 2 reds, which means no LWF proc. If we presume no Range 3 bonus: 2 hits against 2 naked greens is 1.25 hits expected, plus the earlier-spend shield (2.25 damage). 3 hits vs 3 green dice is 1.875 expected hits, so about 0.375 hits more if you spend the hit for Optimized Prototype. Against a focused QD: 3 hits vs 3 greens is 1.125 expected hits, but 2 hits vs 2 greens is 0.75 hits, with one extra shield (1.75 damage), about 0.625 expected hits better. This makes sense: Optimized Prototype essentially forces one of your opponent's dice to roll a blank. That's better than not letting them roll a blank.

What if this is a Range 3 attack, and QD has 3 green dice either way? Focused: 2 hits vs 3 green expects 0.119 hits, so there's a slightly worse average damage (1.119 < 1.125), but one of those damage is guaranteed, and 3 hits vs 3 focused greens has a 24.4% miss chance. *edit* see @evcameron below *e* Maybe that's a benefit, since this is QD and you don't always want to take off only one shield. Against an unfocused QD, 2 hits vs 3 greens expects 0.928, so 1.928 damage vs 1.875 expected from keeping all three hits.

So, I'd say it's almost always better to spend the hit for Optimized Prototype, with a range 3 shot against a focused QD being even close to debatable.

30 minutes ago, theBitterFig said:

Let's break out the dice calc.

As others have mentioned, spending a die lowers you to 2 reds, which means no LWF proc. If we presume no Range 3 bonus: 2 hits against 2 naked greens is 1.25 hits expected, plus the earlier-spend shield (2.25 damage). 3 hits vs 3 green dice is 1.875 expected hits, so about 0.375 hits more if you spend the hit for Optimized Prototype. Against a focused QD: 3 hits vs 3 greens is 1.125 expected hits, but 2 hits vs 2 greens is 0.75 hits, with one extra shield (1.75 damage), about 0.625 expected hits better. This makes sense: Optimized Prototype essentially forces one of your opponent's dice to roll a blank. That's better than not letting them roll a blank.

What if this is a Range 3 attack, and QD has 3 green dice either way? Focused: 2 hits vs 3 green expects 0.119 hits, so there's a slightly worse average damage (1.119 < 1.125), but one of those damage is guaranteed, and 3 hits vs 3 focused greens has a 24.4% miss chance. Maybe that's a benefit, since this is QD and you don't always want to take off only one shield. Against an unfocused QD, 2 hits vs 3 greens expects 0.928, so 1.928 damage vs 1.875 expected from keeping all three hits.

So, I'd say it's almost always better to spend the hit for Optimized Prototype, with a range 3 shot against a focused QD being even close to debatable.

I think there is a mistake in your math, there is no situation where cancelling a dice (even if it's a hit) is a bad idea if they have at least 1 shield left.

2 hits vs 3 defence dice + focus averages .369 damage. So including the shield you stripped it's 1.369 damage, better than the 1.125 if you kept the 3 hits.

I'm confused a little.

1 hour ago, evcameron said:

I think there is a mistake in your math, there is no situation where cancelling a dice (even if it's a hit) is a bad idea if they have at least 1 shield left.

2 hits vs 3 defence dice + focus averages .369 damage. So including the shield you stripped it's 1.369 damage, better than the 1.125 if you kept the 3 hits.

Yep. Just checked, and 0.119 is what you'd get if you had 2 red dice, no tokens, and... Weapons Guidance. Checked the wrong box instead of Accuracy Corrector.

10 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

I'm confused a little.

I'm not sure why.

The maths are irrelevant to the correct answer you got in the second post.

TLDR: should I spend a hit to get rid of a shield? Yes, always. Even against Quickdraw.

The only exception I can think of is if you have Whisper, and need the attack itself to hit to get the extra focus token.

1 hour ago, Crit Happens said:

TLDR: should I spend a hit to get rid of a shield? Yes, always. Even against Quickdraw.

The only exception I can think of is if you have Whisper, and need the attack itself to hit to get the extra focus token.

In general, the answer is yes, but it makes very little difference in most cases.

(the specific cases being basically, when an attack needs to hit, and when Gunner is involved)

1 hour ago, Crit Happens said:

TLDR: should I spend a hit to get rid of a shield? Yes, always. Even against Quickdraw.

Quickdraw is super scary. So even if I didn't follow the maths, it's comforting knowing it's there. Next time I have to shoot her, I'll open one of my eyes a little bit.

On 7/18/2018 at 11:45 AM, PanchoX1 said:

yes it does. if you're attacking at range 3 w primaries QD will get 3 greens. Regardless of light weight frame or OP dice cancellation.

That's not what I mean, but it's not worth clarifying.

56 minutes ago, JasonCole said:

That's not what I mean, but it's not worth clarifying.

ok. Well, I apologize for the misunderstanding.

On 7/18/2018 at 9:44 AM, evcameron said:

I think there is a mistake in your math, there is no situation where cancelling a dice (even if it's a hit) is a bad idea if they have at least 1 shield left.

2 hits vs 3 defence dice + focus averages .369 damage. So including the shield you stripped it's 1.369 damag  e, better than the 1.125 if you kept the 3 hits.   

Indeed. Perhaps a more intuitive way to think about it is that the die you are canceling is only ever going to be worth at most 1 hit anyways. If you cancel it, it's worth exactly one hit. If you don't cancel it, it might be worth less than that (as the attack could be entirely evaded by your opponent).

4 minutes ago, punkUser said:

Indeed. Perhaps a more intuitive way to think about it is that the die you are canceling is only ever going to be worth at most 1 hit anyways. If you cancel it, it's worth exactly one hit. If you don't cancel it, it might be worth less than that (as the attack could be entirely evaded by your opponent).

yup. I learned this the hard way.