Weapon and unit efficiency analysis - Never Tell Me The Odds

By Orkimedes, in Star Wars: Legion

40 minutes ago, Orkimedes said:
I know it has been a really slow news day for Legion. If you have nothing better to do, check out the deep dive for the AT-RT:

Chewbacca, Wookie Warriors, Rebel Specialists+generic commander, Imperial specialists+generic commander.

Sure, as there weren't card spoilers it's kind of a "slow news day".

5 minutes ago, Indy_com said:

Chewbacca, Wookie Warriors, Rebel Specialists+generic commander, Imperial specialists+generic commander.

Sure, as there weren't card spoilers it's kind of a "slow news day".

Um plus Clone Wars, 2019.

Just now, Orkimedes said:

Um plus Clone Wars, 2019.

Sure.

But Imperial Specialists are more interesting to me than the same dude repeated like 50,000 times.

(Also Mel's likely a bit miffed that they've announced clone wars stuff just after he made a bunch of shapeways stuff for it...)

11 minutes ago, Indy_com said:

Sure.

But Imperial Specialists are more interesting to me than the same dude repeated like 50,000 times.

(Also Mel's likely a bit miffed that they've announced clone wars stuff just after he made a bunch of shapeways stuff for it...)

Yeah I agree. I've never been a clone wars fan myself, but at least it will add variety.

The generic commanders are neat.

Just now, Orkimedes said:

Yeah I agree. I've never been a clone wars fan myself, but at least it will add variety.

The generic commanders are neat.

The generic Rebel commander is Gideon from IA.

Seems we'll get a couple of guys from there after all...

Another excellent write up!

Two questions:

1. Regarding your recommendation to keep your squad of chickens dress right dress on the hard points, I find myself wanting to run a pack of two fire breathers and one laser shooter. Tell me why I’m wrong?

2. Was this, perhaps, a missed opportunity, graphic wise? (In lieu of the heat-packing woman you go with, I mean)

giphy.gif

20 hours ago, Gengis Jon said:

Another excellent write up!

Two questions:

1. Regarding your recommendation to keep your squad of chickens dress right dress on the hard points, I find myself wanting to run a pack of two fire breathers and one laser shooter. Tell me why I’m wrong?

2. Was this, perhaps, a missed opportunity, graphic wise? (In lieu of the heat-packing woman you go with, I mean)

giphy.gif

Hmm, absolutely. One can only spend so much time looking through gifs of women burning things with Flamethrowers (of which there is surprising quantity).

I feel like with the Flamethrowers especially, you need to run them in packs to maximize their threat. Also one Laser RT is not going to be able to handle an AT-ST, which is why you would bring them in the first place. It depends on the rest of your list, of course, but I find if I bring just one Laser RT its just not enough by itself to fulfill my Impact needs.

Updated efficiency and wounds-by-target charts to include Commandos, Wookies, and Imperial Royal Guard.
Also introduced a new composite metric called Weighted Efficiency which attempts to combine a unit's impact and non-impact efficiency into one per-point stat.
Edited by Orkimedes
31 minutes ago, Orkimedes said:

Hmm, absolutely. One can only spend so much time looking through gifs of women burning things with Flamethrowers (of which there is surprising quantity).

I feel like with the Flamethrowers especially, you need to run them in packs to maximize their threat. Also one Laser RT is not going to be able to handle an AT-ST, which is why you would bring them in the first place. It depends on the rest of your list, of course, but I find if I bring just one Laser RT its just not enough by itself to fulfill my Impact needs.

1. Just making sure you caught who this particular woman was (bc, to me, truthfully there could be only this one to pick, no sifting and searching required)

2. Agree completely about running them in packs. And my experience with packs of laser-shooters has been as you describe. But for a pack of three, I’m wondering if the crew wouldn’t enjoy the reach of single laser chicken (with the other two being fire breathers) as they’re all making their approach and otherwise clucking about the battlefield. The single laser in this case not so much meant to take on an AT-ST, tho maybe harrass or distract, as to begin providing some early suppression and perhaps some stand-off from bikers and whatnot as the other two go about their BBQing bidness. I’ll test it out soon enough with my Wonder Twin/4x trooper list), just curious if you’d had any experience with it.

5 minutes ago, Gengis Jon said:

1. Just making sure you caught who this particular woman was (bc, to me, truthfully there could be only this one to pick, no sifting and searching required)

2. Agree completely about running them in packs. And my experience with packs of laser-shooters has been as you describe. But for a pack of three, I’m wondering if the crew wouldn’t enjoy the reach of single laser chicken (with the other two being fire breathers) as they’re all making their approach and otherwise clucking about the battlefield. The single laser in this case not so much meant to take on an AT-ST, tho maybe harrass or distract, as to begin providing some early suppression and perhaps some stand-off from bikers and whatnot as the other two go about their BBQing bidness. I’ll test it out soon enough with my Wonder Twin/4x trooper list), just curious if you’d had any experience with it.

I have not tried it myself; personally I only own 2 AT-RTs so I have never run three.

Honestly since I've gone to the two Laser Cannon build, I haven't gone back. It has been working incredibly well for me, even in matches where my opponent shows up without armor.

I actually haven't even painted my Rotary Blasters. I get why people take them, but for me they are just too similar to the role you can get from other things in the Rebel toolkit (especially the Z-6) and the Flamethrower and Laser Cannon both offer something categorically different from what you can get from other Rebel units.

Edited by Orkimedes
21 minutes ago, Orkimedes said:

the Flamethrower and Laser Cannon both offer something categorically different from what you can get from other Rebel units.

Yep, my thoughts exactly, which is kinda why I’m interested in mixing em up a little.

Tho, maybe I’ve thinking about the wrong option.

Perhaps a 2x laser/1x Fire is the better way to do it. That way you’re real threat to any AT-ST while the single fire-clucker can still still move up and put the smack down. (Part of my problem with 3x AT-STs has been largely traffic management... with one or two lasers hanging back that become less of an issue, or so I surmise)

Ah, so many options to play with, so little time to actually play!

Oh, and for anyone wondering, in the above clip, that’s a young actress named Carrie Fisher trying to kill John Belushi and Dan Aykroyd in one of the best movies ever made.

Perhaps ironically, Aykroyd literally saved her life when she choked on a brussel sprout, during a break in filming.

On 8/10/2018 at 4:39 AM, Orkimedes said:
This week we take a look at Effective Wounds and Effective Wounds per Point for the units of Star Wars: Legion, including the newly previewed Wookiees and Imperial Royal Guard.

I like your approach. I do a lot of excel sheet comparisons as well, but it is always nice to check whether another nerd comes to the same results. In a lot of table top games, the triad output, input and mobility is a really good start to judge whether a unit fits in your concept.

I would suggest that you take a more conservative approach when it comes to the effect of Armor though.

I think your 41% damage reduction is way to much for a couple of reasons.

1.
For starters, I would disagree with your remarks concerning opportunity costs. You basically stated that you force your opponent to bring assets with impact that cost a lot more points in comparison to non-impact assets with the same damage output. I assume that we are talking about a competitive tournament environment, because casual players usually don’t care that much about how unit perform.
I also assume that the sheets are almost only relevant during list building, usually for a tournament. In that phase, you have to assume that most opponents bring a sufficient amount of impact weapons to deal with Armor. It actually doesn’t matter if you include Armor in your list. Your opponents have to be able to deal with Armor no matter what. In economic terms, those are fixed costs.

The opportunity costs actually rather exist for the player who decides to bring Armor, because he could have neutralized all those points spent on impact weapons (or another concept to deal with armoured units) by most opponents.

2.
I think your unit selection for the average is flawed for a couple of reasons. You stated most of the problems yourself, but decided to factor in a lot of common units without anti-Armor ability anyway. This selection depends a lot on meta-considerations and is highly subjective by nature of course, but I really think the way you did it is misleading.
Some units are more common than others in a competitive environment. Corps units (especially Z6 and DLT-19 Squads) are more often just by the given army structure. They should be factored in with a factor of 2 or 3. Other units like Fleet Troopers with scatter gun, a rotary- or flamer-ATRT would almost never shoot at an armoured unit in a given tactical situation. It is very popular to give impact grenades to Snowtroopers with flamers in a lot of areas, and their threat range is higher than those of flamer ATRTs. I would definitely factor that combination in.
Your opponent will setup and play in a way that anti-trooper assets have other targets to shoot at, and he will make sure that his anti-Armor assets are in place or move in place if he messed up his setup. In a tournament mind-set, you plan to win 3,4 or 5 games in a row. In the planning phase, you cannot assume that you play out all of them.

For all those reasons, the factor I used in my calculations is rather around 30% than you 41%

3.

There is one more major factor that further decreases the defensive value of Armor. ATSTs, ATRTs and T-47 do not benefit from cover and dodge tokens as much and as often as trooper units. They are simply bigger, do not get suppression tokens and they tend to spent actions for pivoting, moving and aiming more often. Even if you wanted to, they are also much more difficult to hide completely behind los-blockers. For in-game reasons and due to their role in the game, it is less often desirable to hide them. They are usually supposed to deal damage, while troopers just play the mission sometimes or move into cover. The impact-mechanic works in a way that cover and dodge do not nearly help as much as they help units without Armor.

If we come back to your initial thoughts about the immobile 30-wound vehicle without an attack, these semi-soft factors should be factored in somehow. After all, we are already in highly subjective territory anyway because we had to make selection of units that are likely to shoot an armoured vehicle.
I usually treat Armor as an additional 6+ save or less than 20% damage reduction for that reason if I try to get an idea of their staying power during the list building phase. In a given tactical situation, things are different though. For that reasons, I also consider a naked ATRT to be a reasonable asset, especially in the context of a rebel army where things tend to be on the squishy side. The difference between 55 and 80 points is huge. If you use them for their staying power per point, 3 red dice+ crit surge in close combat are often good enough. Since they do not profit from cover as much anyway and are rather low on the target priority list, they open new avenues of approach.

1 hour ago, M.Mustermann said:

I like your approach. I do a lot of excel sheet comparisons as well, but it is always nice to check whether another nerd comes to the same results. In a lot of table top games, the triad output, input and mobility is a really good start to judge whether a unit fits in your concept.

I would suggest that you take a more conservative approach when it comes to the effect of Armor though.

I think your 41% damage reduction is way to much for a couple of reasons.

Here is why:

1.
For starters, I would disagree with your remarks concerning opportunity costs. You basically stated that you force your opponent to bring assets with impact that cost a lot more points in comparison to non-impact assets with the same damage output. I assume that we are talking about a competitive tournament environment, because casual players usually don’t care that much about how unit perform.
I also assume that the sheets are almost only relevant during list building, usually for a tournament. In that phase, you have to assume that most opponents bring a sufficient amount of impact weapons to deal with Armor. It actually doesn’t matter if you include Armor in your list. Your opponents have to be able to deal with Armor no matter what. In economic terms, those are fixed costs.

The opportunity costs actually rather exist for the player who decides to bring Armor, because he could have neutralized all those points spent on impact weapons (or another concept to deal with armoured units) by most opponents.

2.
I think your unit selection for the average is flawed for a couple of reasons. You stated most of the problems yourself, but decided to factor in a lot of common units without anti-Armor ability anyway. This selection depends a lot on meta-considerations and is highly subjective by nature of course, but I really think the way you did it is misleading.
Some units are more common than others in a competitive environment. Corps units (especially Z6 and DLT-19 Squads) are more often just by the given army structure. They should be factored in with a factor of 2 or 3. Other units like Fleet Troopers with scatter gun, a rotary- or flamer-ATRT would almost never shoot at an armoured unit in a given tactical situation. It is very popular to give impact grenades to Snowtroopers with flamers in a lot of areas, and their threat range is higher than those of flamer ATRTs. I would definitely factor that combination in.
Your opponent will setup and play in a way that anti-trooper assets have other targets to shoot at, and he will make sure that his anti-Armor assets are in place or move in place if he messed up his setup. In a tournament mind-set, you plan to win 3,4 or 5 games in a row. In the planning phase, you cannot assume that you play out all of them.

For all those reasons, the factor I used in my calculations is rather around 30% than you 41%

3.

There is one more major factor that further decreases the defensive value of Armor. ATSTs, ATRTs and T-47 do not benefit from cover and dodge tokens as much and as often as trooper units. They are simply bigger, do not get suppression tokens and they tend to spent actions for pivoting, moving and aiming more often. Even if you wanted to, they are also much more difficult to hide completely behind los-blockers. For in-game reasons and due to their role in the game, it is less often desirable to hide them. They are usually supposed to deal damage, while troopers just play the mission sometimes or move into cover. The impact-mechanic works in a way that cover and dodge do not nearly help as much as they help units without Armor.

If we come back to your initial thoughts about the immobile 30-wound vehicle without an attack, these semi-soft factors should be factored in somehow. After all, we are already in highly subjective territory anyway because we had to make selection of units that are likely to shoot an armoured vehicle.
I usually treat Armor as an additional 6+ save or less than 20% damage reduction for that reason if I try to get an idea of their staying power during the list building phase. In a given tactical situation, things are different though. For that reasons, I also consider a naked ATRT to be a reasonable asset, especially in the context of a rebel army where things tend to be on the squishy side. The difference between 55 and 80 points is huge. If you use them for their staying power per point, 3 red dice+ crit surge in close combat are often good enough. Since they do not profit from cover as much anyway and are rather low on the target priority list, they open new avenues of approach.

Awesome, this is exactly the kind of feedback I was looking for.

I certainly agree that 41% is too high. I’m just not quite sure how to quantify all those soft factors without being entirely arbitrary.

I like your weighting idea, I may look at that in future posts.

Part of the problem is there is a benefit to never being shot by Fleet Troopers, or a flamer AT-RT. Your opponent is definitely going to bring Impact, and in a tournament that is going to be a fixed cost for them. That doesn’t mean, however, that those units are always going to be in a position to shoot your armor. They may be out of position, damaged or dead.

GenCon demonstrated the value of armor, particularly on day 1 when Nick Freeman was able to run rampant with his Weiss AT-ST. Part of that was certainly the terrain, but having a big dangerous unit that many of your opponent’s activations can’t harm (except with crits) is quite valuable.

4 hours ago, Orkimedes said:

GenCon demonstrated the value of armor, particularly on day 1 when Nick Freeman was able to run rampant with his Weiss AT-ST. Part of that was certainly the terrain, but having a big dangerous unit that many of your opponent’s activations can’t harm (except with crits) is quite valuable.

Thinking about "opportunity cost" is interesting when you start to differentiate by factions. My local scene is mostly imperials (though that seems to be shifting as more players join) and as such I know my opponent *will* have Impact to spare, simply by virtue of bringing DLTs, Speeder bikes, Impact grenades on Snow troopers, etc that are strong options anyway.

As a rebel player, trying to squeeze in Impact is actually pretty tough. Laser ATRTs and MPLs are inefficient options that also lend themselves to a slower advance, which is the opposite of what I want to do. At the same time, rebels are more vulnerable to flamer ATRTs and concussion-ATSTs.

Basically Armour is better in a rebel-heavy area. If you had the inkling, I'd love to see your attempt to quantify that.

1 minute ago, colki said:

Thinking about "opportunity cost" is interesting when you start to differentiate by factions. My local scene is mostly imperials (though that seems to be shifting as more players join) and as such I know my opponent *will* have Impact to spare, simply by virtue of bringing DLTs, Speeder bikes, Impact grenades on Snow troopers, etc that are strong options anyway.

As a rebel player, trying to squeeze in Impact is actually pretty tough. Laser ATRTs and MPLs are inefficient options that also lend themselves to a slower advance, which is the opposite of what I want to do. At the same time, rebels are more vulnerable to flamer ATRTs and concussion-ATSTs.

Basically Armour is better in a rebel-heavy area. If you had the inkling, I'd love to see your attempt to quantify that.

Hmm, that is an interesting thought. The numbers is the article for the "cost" of an Impact hit are Empire/Rebel combined.

So I actually went back and looked... Rebels and Imperials both pay exactly the same for an Impact hit. .022.

That makes me think I need to look at it again, because Empire definitely have more natural Impact on their weapon choices than Rebels do.

Thanks @Orkimedes. These blog posts are really great and fun to read. If I were FFG I would be hitting you up to link them from the Legion page.

52 minutes ago, BigBadAndy said:

Thanks @Orkimedes. These blog posts are really great and fun to read. If I were FFG I would be hitting you up to link them from the Legion page.

Thanks! I think my writing style might be a little cavalier for FFG but who knows :)

There are a lot of really good Legion blogs (and other community products) out there. Hopefully FFG starts leveraging some of those to push out more content than just their typical “here’s the next thing you can buy” articles.

21 hours ago, Orkimedes said:

Had a chance to sit down and talk stats with the illustrious gentlemen from The Rebel Scum podcast.

The episode was recorded pre-GenCon so there is a short bit in the middle that is a little dated.

http://shoutengine.com/TheRebelScumAStarWarsLegionPodcast/108-return-of-the-podcast-64035

Still enjoying the blog and I enjoyed the conversation on the podcast. Keep it up!

After a slight delay, next unit deep dive is up.
It's AT-ST time.
What is your favorite AT-ST loadout and why?
Brief article this week, as I prepare to have my hopes and dreams crushed at NOVA.
Taking a look at Suppression and the chances to clear a given number of tokens: