1 minute ago, Icelom said:

But with an even point amount no? That's your argument if you out point him you can beat him?

Based on the 1.0 price levels, you can fit five 3-attack generics into a list.

Which would give you about 3 of them worth of Han, and 2 of them worth of whatever partner Han is flying with.

Many of the generics in 2.0 are getting improved dials, extra health and/or built-in action economy.

And the DEVs have even mentioned that we will be paying premium for high initiative.

If you want to be scared of something in 2.0, be scared of generics.

Not some pitiful 3-die attack turret, which costs 2/3s of your list and even doesn't really have that much modifications for either offense or defense..

Seems a lot of people posting here don't remember/realize how great Han was at arc-dodging front arc ships.

This is a good video to watch to see what a boosting Falcon can do to a swarm.

36 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

Lets face it, Rebels are the "skill floor" faction. They wont be autowin if the prices are right, but it's going to be very hard to play them badly. See also Wedge affecting his entire arc.

I wouldn't say "skill floor" faction

Like I said, without Luke gunner the mobile arcs require a lot of thought and strategy to actually utilize effectively

And while something as all around solid as an Xwing will be a lot easier to use than a TIE Advance (TL requirement makes or breaks it) it's still an arclocked ship that requires good flying to effectively bring to bear

Xwings will probably also get completely steamrolled if they fly into the wood chipper that is the howlie swarm. You'll have to fly intelligently, breaking the formation across an obstacle field etc

Plus there's all the counter-jouster stuff like the promise of launched bombs (deathrain triggers off of them, deathfire launches when triggered) or higher I alpha strikers or even reinforce to some extent. For example, a lambda can't really joust (dial) but it'll sponge damage and be royal pain in the **** roadblock that can still support its buddies with Inquistor coordinate (or just advanced sensors)

There are so many good counterplay options for jousters, it's what makes the game enjoyable

Luke gunner...there really are no words for how low the floor is here. It's more of a skill abyss, really. It just turns into "throw dice, the game"

Its not really fair to deem it fit for rebels just because they're not as complex as imperials

You are giving up the gunner slot...that is a large opportunity cost. Let us also not forget that with all the changes to the game, TIE swarms may ironically have the upper hand against a fat Han (evade token only changes, not adds a result, C3P-O is not around, boost is red and the dial is not flattering, etc.). Tbf, I am excited to face off against someone fielding Luke, as that person would not only be able to not fly one of the best T65's, but that they paid a premium for old turrets. In the meanwhile, even if defenders are super-pricey, X7 defense is virtually unchanged, plus they have boost, and that token stash is super effective against a single-shot turret.

20 hours ago, Incard said:

here's some more math on the defensive ability of 1st vs 2nd edition Han Solo:

1st edition can use an Evade token to block 1 damage, use C-3PO to guarantee an evade result, and use R2-D2 crew to recover 1 shield (under certain conditions, let's assume the best). This version of Han effectively blocks 3 damage each turn, plus an additional amount equal to the number of evades he rolls against attacks where C-3PO is not used. The number of damaged blocked as a function of the number of attacks faced in a single turn is d(a)= (3/8)(a-1)+3.

2nd edition Han can reroll his defense die once due to his pilot ability (let's assume the best for him, too: he's near an obstacle), and once more from the Millenium Falcon title (yes, he gets to reroll it twice). He can do this against any number of attacks, but he will presumably wait to use his evade token until the last attack against him in order to maximize the rerolling benefit. His evade token is only a 2nd edition token, however, and merely changes his die result to an evade, rather than adding an evade result. The odds on rolling an evade on a single die that you're allowed to reroll up to two times is almost exactly 3/4 (it's really 75.5+%). The number of damaged blocked as a function of the number of attacks faced in a single turn is d(a)=(3/4)(a-1)+1.

Here's a graph of both functions. It takes 7(!) attacks in a single turn before the 2nd edition Han blocks on average more damage than the 1st edition Han. And remember, for 2nd edition Han, only 1 block ever is guaranteed, compared to 3.

Your equation for 2nd Edition Han is wrong. You don't automatically spend the evade token on the first attack, you get to save it for when you don't roll an evade. So the 2nd edition curve should not be a straight line. Take the 2e example of Han getting a native reroll, plus the reroll from the MF title. His chance of getting an evade is 1 - (5/8)^3 = 75.59%. If he gets attacked twice, he has a 94% chance of blocking 2 damage. The only way he blocks one damage in 2 attacks is if he rolls zero evades in 6 green dice.

Comparing 1st edition Han with C-3P0 and MF evade (no R2-D2), to New 2e Han with evade and double reroll:

OldHan = 2.0000 2.3750 2.7500 3.1250 3.5000 3.8750

NewHan = 1.0000 1.9404 2.8357 3.6970 4.5326 5.3487

2nd edition Han is marginally better than 1e Han after 3 attacks, and is significantly better with more attacks. This is optimistic with a large number of attacks because it assumes you'll have them all in arc for the 2e MF title's reroll to kick in, but the principle applies anyway. I'm not sure R2-D2 crew on 1e Han is a fair comparison, since other crew was usually used, and we still don't know what crew will be good on 2e Han. Remember the above numbers assume no crew on 2e Han, there will undoubtedly be some crew(s) that make him significantly better.

[Edit: this is wrong too, I didn't realize that you need to have the evade in order to use the MF's reroll ability. The real answer will be more complicated with branching math!]

I love the intention of 2.0 to emphasize tactful maneuvering, judicious access to actions, and reining in defense to allow for two dice attacks to become viable.

Has Luke's card text been confirmed? I've only read the first few pages of the read; there's too much to keep track of have I've been working overtime for the last month.

Hopefully, it's not. I think it would be crazy to undo the amazing rules slated for 2.0 within the same wave they're getting released... The only benefit would be that it would be the auto-include crew member for my super-newbie friends, removing any mental stress they have about how to build a team. I'm really hoping the card translation was incorrect, though.

5 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Your equation for 2nd Edition Han is wrong. You don't automatically spend the evade token on the first attack, you get to save it for when you don't roll an evade.

He didn’t say you spend it on the first attack, he said save it for the last attack, which you have to do to keep getting one of those rerolls.

6 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Your equation for 2nd Edition Han is wrong. You don't automatically spend the evade token on the first attack, you get to save it for when you don't roll an evade. So the 2nd edition curve should not be a straight line. Take the 2e example of Han getting a native reroll, plus the reroll from the MF title. His chance of getting an evade is 1 - (5/8)^3 = 75.59%. If he gets attacked twice, he has a 94% chance of blocking 2 damage. The only way he blocks one damage in 2 attacks is if he rolls zero evades in 6 green dice.

Comparing 1st edition Han with C-3P0 and MF evade (no R2-D2), to New 2e Han with evade and double reroll:

OldHan = 2.0000 2.3750 2.7500 3.1250 3.5000 3.8750

NewHan = 1.0000 1.9404 2.8357 3.6970 4.5326 5.3487

2nd edition Han is marginally better than 1e Han after 3 attacks, and is significantly better with more attacks. This is optimistic with a large number of attacks because it assumes you'll have them all in arc for the 2e MF title's reroll to kick in, but the principle applies anyway. I'm not sure R2-D2 crew on 1e Han is a fair comparison, since other crew was usually used, and we still don't know what crew will be good on 2e Han. Remember the above numbers assume no crew on 2e Han, there will undoubtedly be some crew(s) that make him significantly better.

Pretty sure the 2.0 han numbers involve never spending the evade until the last shot that could possibly affect Han. If there is only 1 attack a round, the last is also the first, which is what makes it a line with a 1-intercept of 1.

10 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

Pretty sure the 2.0 han numbers involve never spending the evade until the last shot that could possibly affect Han. If there is only 1 attack a round, the last is also the first, which is what makes it a line with a 1-intercept of 1.

No, his 2nd edition curve is wrong. His math is equivalent to automatically spending the evade on the first attack and never rolling dice for that first attack. [edit: this equation is wrong: d(a)=(3/4)(a-1)+1] To do the calculation correctly you need to do an iterative convolution and then add in the evade for any non-perfect result.

The correct answer for 2e Han vs 2 attacks is 1.94, not the 1.75 that he has. The difference continues to grow as there are more attacks.

Just now, MajorJuggler said:

No, his 2nd edition curve is wrong. His math is automatically spending the evade on the first attack and never rolling dice. To do the calculation correctly you need to do a iterative convolution and then add in the evade for any non-perfect result.

Last attack, not first attack. All attacks before the last attack are 5/8*5/8*5/8 chance of not rolling a natural evade (1 die, rerolled twice with falcon and Han) and the last attack is always evaded, whether you need to spend the token or not, because you needed to save the token for rerolls.

Edited, you're... sort of correct, he's saving the evade token for the very last attack, which he shouldn't be doing. He should be using it as soon as it's useful to spend it. As a result his equation d(a)=(3/4)(a-1)+1 is wrong. You need to do an iterative convolution and then apply the evade at the end.

Saving the evade token for the last attack when you could have spent it earlier is non-optimal. It is also mathematically equivalent to spending the evade token on the very first attack without rolling defense dice. If you decide to preemptively chuck [roll X] and replace it with an evade (which you would never do in real life unless there's only 1 attack), it doesn't matter which roll you replace.

4 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Edited, you're right, he's saving the evade token, which he also shouldn't be doing. He should be using it as soon as it's useful to spend it. His equation d(a)=(3/4)(a-1)+1 is wrong. You need to do an iterative convolution and then apply the evade at the end.

Saving the evade token for the last attack when you could have spent it earlier is non-optimal. It is also mathematically equivalent to spending the evade token on the very first attack without rolling defense dice.

Thank you, something fealt wrong with his math but I did not have the energy to plug away at it.

Normal you bother me, but when you are on my side not so much.... Strange how that works?

22 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Your equation for 2nd Edition Han is wrong.

I am assuming he keeps it until the last attack, as I said.

Just now, Incard said:

I am assuming he keeps it until the last attack, as I said.

See my multiple (edited) responses, that is a wrong assumption. Saving the evade for the last attack is mathematically identical to spending it on the first attack regardless of the roll on the first attack.

What you should be doing is saving the evade until you DON'T roll an evade (after 2 rerolls).

5 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Edited, you're right, he's saving the evade token, which he also shouldn't be doing. He should be using it as soon as it's useful to spend it. His equation d(a)=(3/4)(a-1)+1 is wrong. You need to do an iterative convolution and then apply the evade at the end.

Saving the evade token for the last attack when you could have spent it earlier is non-optimal. It is also mathematically equivalent to spending the evade token on the very first attack without rolling defense dice.

I notice your curve starts to drop below his line once you reach 6 attaks or more, suggesting that his technique remains superior vs full swarms, where the extra rerolls past the first fail are better than stopping the first leaker.

Just now, MajorJuggler said:

What you should be doing is saving the evade until you DON'T roll an evade (after 2 rerolls).

I think it depends on how many further attacks are coming after the blankout, because without the evade token, Han does not get the MF title reroll any further. I made this assumption to emphasize the high end of 2nd edition Han's damage mitigation - i.e.; keeping the reroll benefit as long as possible and counting 1 attack (the last one) as an automatic evade result from the token.

2 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

I notice your curve starts to drop below his line once you reach 6 attaks or more, suggesting that his technique remains superior vs full swarms, where the extra rerolls past the first fail are better than stopping the first leaker.

His 2e curve is lower than my 2e curve for all values other than 1 attack, in which case they are identical (1). You must be looking at it wrong. :-)

At a first glance, spend the evade if you fail on one of the last 3 shots- the missing reroll on the remaining two shots doesnt improve your odds enough to make up for the (at the time) guarenteed damage if you dont spend the evade. But if there's another 3 or more attacks coming, the extra reroll should be worth more than than spending the evade now.

5 minutes ago, Incard said:

I think it depends on how many further attacks are coming after the blankout, because without the evade token, Han does not get the MF title reroll any further. I made this assumption to emphasize the high end of 2nd edition Han's damage mitigation - i.e.; keeping the reroll benefit as long as possible and counting 1 attack (the last one) as an automatic evade result from the token.

Ah-HA! In that case I need to re-read the MF title... if you only get the reroll if you already have an evade, then the math gets more complicated. That would require some additional branching logic, did not realize the card worked that way.

Edit: it's still not a straight line with the optimal decision tree, just more complicated. The optimal curve will be somewhere between your approximation and my incorrect interpretation of the new MF title.

1 minute ago, MajorJuggler said:

Ah-HA! In that case I need to re-read the MF title... if you only get the reroll if you already have an evade, then the math gets more complicated. That would require some additional branching logic, did not realize the card worked that way.

It is not clear from just the card text, we need the full rules to be certain, but something one of the FFG guys said indicated that “evading” means “having an evade token”. So once you spend the token you are no longer evading and no longer get the reroll. Hence keeping it till the last attack. Like I said 13 posts ago.

2 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Ah-HA! In that case I need to re-read the MF title... if you only get the reroll if you already have an evade, then the math gets more complicated. That would require some additional branching logic, did not realize the card worked that way.

Yes, when to spend gets complex and entirely dependent on how many attacks are still coming.

7 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

Ah-HA! In that case I need to re-read the MF title... if you only get the reroll if you already have an evade, then the math gets more complicated. That would require some additional branching logic, did not realize the card worked that way.

Edit: it's still not a straight line with the optimal decision tree, just more complicated.

Yea, it depends on the marginal value of the reroll he loses.

If you dont have the han reroll, only the falcon reroll, spend the evade if it's on the last 3 shots.

If you do have han reroll, spend the evade on the last, what, 9 shots?

200/512 vs 125/512, so a 75/512 margin... Last 7 shots, I believe.

I definitely didn't read "if you are evading" as "you have an evade token" but that probably makes sense. I'll wait on confirmation before I go figure out the optimal decision tree.

I think when you throw Luke Gunner's Force modification for Han's defense, 2nd edition Han improves further, but is still outdone in the 1-3 attack range by 1st edition Han. Getting shot 4 times is trouble for either one and rare-ish, even for large squad sizes. In any case, I think the subjective experience of 2nd edition Han will not be as negative because Han can only mitigate at most 1 damage per attack.

2 minutes ago, MajorJuggler said:

I definitely didn't read "if you are evading" as "you have an evade token" but that probably makes sense. I'll wait on confirmation before I go figure out the optimal decision tree.

I treated it that way based on how Alex treated "when you are focused" in the TC game; it meant having the token. I think it's a good lingo change - cuts down on words while still being clear enough (once defined in the rulebook, one assumes).