So. For those who watched/have watched the final from the 2018 world's, it was easy to be like: "Oh man, that kid just got lucky with his green dice! Mine never do that!" Turns out, his green dice were pretty much average. He actually rolled less evades than expected!!! I missed one roll because it was not on camera:

57 Green Dice Rolled

Evades: ACTUAL: 16 EXPECTED for 57: 21.375 (Simeon rolled -5.375 here!)

Blanks: ACTUAL: 22 EXPECTED for 57: 21.375 (Simeon rolled +0.625 here!)

Focus: ACTUAL: 19 EXPECTED for 57: 14.25 (Simeon rolled +4.75 here!)

Yes, he rolled above average by a decent margin for focuses, but he rolled waaaaay under average for evades (that margin being larger than the margin for focus). In terms of combining focus and evade as "paint," expected paint for 57 dice would be 35.625 paint, and Simeon rolled 35 paint - right on the average more or less! I know 57 is not exactly a huge sample, but it is not that bad either.

So, what made the difference? Simeon flew exceptionally well, had strong list synergy, and pretty much had focus, evade, and/or autothrusters active for defense at all times.

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P.S. I believe this is why the evade token got nerfed in 2.0. Adding a result is an insanely strong mechanic it turns out haha.

P.P.S. I did not do stats for Jelte's offense dice, but those seemed atrocious, and he even used mods (TLs, etc.)! I would have to check, though, and to be honest, would not be surprised if his offense rolls were "average," more or less.

I tried to find the video, but could not. Could you give a link?

25 minutes ago, GLEXOR said:

I tried to find the video, but could not. Could you give a link?

Should last on twitch another week or two

I guess they thought he got lucky in every other round too, to make it to the final.

In my experience there's no such thing as luck.

How did his green dice compare to his opponents? This is one of the biggest issues with the Imperial craft. They are so reliant on green dice, you can roll perfectly average but the one time you blank out you die.

I feel like this is true. The problem here is the ships Simeon was flying are in many ways the same. The IG chassis relies heavily on not getting hit, having good green dice, and swapping who your opponent can attack. I think what really was a big factor in his survivability was push the limit, advanced sensors, and IG88-C.

39 minutes ago, HolySorcerer said:

How did his green dice compare to his opponents? This is one of the biggest issues with the Imperial craft. They are so reliant on green dice, you can roll perfectly average but the one time you blank out you die.

I'm guessing about the same. IIRC, there was a turn where an IG had Quickdraw dead to rights at range one, and didn't manage to hit with two attacks. There were defnitely swingy turns on both sides.

He needed his dice to help in some way, as he had a pretty awful run of getting 1 hit per attack roll, even with the IG gunner ability. A few rounds he'd roll twice per ship and get 1 hit/2 blanks EACH time. Was crazy.

I believe the game was lost in the imperial approach. Not having inquisitor in a good position the first round of combat, especially for his always R1 shots cost him the game. It was super close but having all his ships approach from the same area was really bad.

I remember a few good dice on both sides but some awful ones too.

5 minutes ago, Danath said:

I believe the game was lost in the imperial approach. Not having inquisitor in a good position the first round of combat, especially for his always R1 shots cost him the game. It was super close but having all his ships approach from the same area was really bad.

I remember a few good dice on both sides but some awful ones too.

Yeah, pretty much this. The Inquistor broke off to repositon, spent a couple of turns out of the game, and when he finally found himself back in the action he ended up caught in the middle of a BroBot killbox.

I'm not really criticising here , the Inquisitor wants to be out at range three where he gets benefit from his ability and autothrusters, but between movement and control, Simeon did a great job of isolating individual ships, first the Shuttle, then Quickdraw, then the Inquistor. There weren't too many opportunitied for the Imperial ships to focus their fire.

Yup Simeon did a great job keeping his edge and preventing concentrated fire on his ships!

1 hour ago, HolySorcerer said:

How did his green dice compare to his opponents? This is one of the biggest issues with the Imperial craft. They are so reliant on green dice, you can roll perfectly average but the one time you blank out you die.

They also have the best ways in the game to mitigate green dive variance: high-PS repositioning, Autothrusters, token stacking, and Palp. If you’re putting yourself in a position where three blanks kills you, you’re already screwed. Even with three blanks, you can get three evades with Palp AT and token.

14 minutes ago, Danath said:

I believe the game was lost in the imperial approach. Not having inquisitor in a good position the first round of combat, especially for his always R1 shots cost him the game. It was super close but having all his ships approach from the same area was really bad.

I remember a few good dice on both sides but some awful ones too.

9 minutes ago, FTS Gecko said:

Yeah, pretty much this. The Inquistor broke off to repositon, spent a couple of turns out of the game, and when he finally found himself back in the action he ended up caught in the middle of a BroBot killbox.

I'm not really criticising here , the Inquisitor wants to be out at range three where he gets benefit from his ability and autothrusters, but between movement and control, Simeon did a great job of isolating individual ships, first the Shuttle, then Quickdraw, then the Inquistor. There weren't too many opportunitied for the Imperial ships to focus their fire.

I watched more than one of Simeon's games, and this was an ongoing theme. A critical piece of the opponent's squad was always out of position on the first round of shooting, and sometimes so far out of position that it took 2-3 more rounds to get into the fight at all.

If it happened once, I'd chalk it up to luck or a mistake by a tired opponent, but three times in a row makes me think that Simeon is actually just really good at setting up/controlling the opening engagement and using his list to intimidate his opponent.

1 hour ago, Boba Rick said:

In my experience there's no such thing as luck.

[Insert qui-gon chance cube gif here]

59 minutes ago, ficklegreendice said:

[Insert qui-gon chance cube gif here]

Jedi, known liars and cheats. Not to mention the child abuse and brainwashing.