Sorry for the delay in releasing this.
This is not really pertinent for worlds - it’s mostly just a time-series of what we thought were interesting data points.
Presentation contains the notes about how the data was collected. Charts and tables and such.
Go to bed Travis
QuoteDoes not include Italy System Open
I made this before then, as it was the only event left before worlds, and I wouldn't have time to do it after.
Also, let’s be real - it won’t matter, and it’ll have a bunch of rebels in it.
I forgive you only because for some reason it's not in the Juggler yet (but I posted the cut in your thread so maybe I won't)
Joking aside, while I'm not agreeing on all your list definition (but we already discussed that plentiful), you made an incredible and amazing work.
I hope your teammates give you enough credit, because that's how a great team prepare for a big tournament!
Thank you for this review of The Last Meta
Curious...on slide 22 is there a reason why Lothal Rebel didn't show up on there? If ghost/fenn accounts for around 15% of the overall cut, I would think that the lothal would at least be represented in that table.
Nitpick on that aside, love info this as much as the field loves TLT upgrades!
Also interesting is RacLo in that it has the highest number of "autowins" at 3, but also the highest number of "autolosses" at 3 as well. Talk about rolling the matchup dice with that. Oof.
2 hours ago, viedit said:Curious...on slide 22 is there a reason why Lothal Rebel didn't show up on there? If ghost/fenn accounts for around 15% of the overall cut, I would think that the lothal would at least be represented in that table.
Nitpick on that aside, love info this as much as the field loves TLT upgrades!
It’s mostly because the ‘VCX’ datapoint is basically the same as ghost fenn.
For slide 32, I tried to pull out anything that wasn’t similar to the meta list chart. I just sorted the highest ships and pilots and checked for anything that stood out.
I am glad you posted your "Meta Matrix Used for Evaluating Matchups", because I have been wanting to take such a matrix and use it to calculate what the projected squad percentages should be in a system with all rational actors. This system can be described as a set of N equations, and you can solve for the expected appearance rate of each squad, such that the expected win rate of any squad is exactly half. In other words, with all rational actors "the field" should be a push for all squads. And you can end up with less than N lists, because some of them may be strictly inferior to others, or mathematically identical in their matchups. [edit: although with this matrix it doesn't look like there will be any strict redundancies.]
Obviously the utility of such a prediction relies on the accuracy of the win rate coefficients for each squad.
P.S. a few of your cells in slide 24 are the wrong color. When I do my analysis I will assume that the text is correct and the color is wrong.
Edited by MajorJuggler1 hour ago, MajorJuggler said:I am glad you posted your "Meta Matrix Used for Evaluating Matchups", because I have been wanting to take such a matrix and use it to calculate what the projected squad percentages should be in a system with all rational actors. This system can be described as a set of N equations, and you can solve for the expected appearance rate of each squad, such that the expected win rate of any squad is exactly half. In other words, with all rational actors "the field" should be a push for all squads. And you can end up with less than N lists, because some of them may be strictly inferior to others, or mathematically identical in their matchups. [edit: although with this matrix it doesn't look like there will be any strict redundancies.]
Obviously the utility of such a prediction relies on the accuracy of the win rate coefficients for each squad.
P.S. a few of your cells in slide 24 are the wrong color. When I do my analysis I will assume that the text is correct and the color is wrong.
I’ll take a look at slide 24 a bit later when I can and update here.
This is incredible work, only hope we can collate data at this level quickly after 2.0 drops!!
I can’t find the confirmed top 16 anywhere.
From that list I can fill in most of the lists but not all.
Simeon Dellapina- Control Bots
Duncan Howard- Palp Aces Variant (Ryad/Inquisitor/Yorr thanks SnooSnerry and hawk32!)
Jelte de Boer- Palp Aces Variant (Yorr/QD/INQ)
Alexander Birt- Palp Aces (Yorr/QD/INQ)
Keenan Childs- Vader/QD/Nu (Thanks AlexW!)
Jan Swirski- Miranda, Low, Jess
Paul Heaver- Miranda, Low, Fenn
Jeff Berling- Miranda/Low/Fenn
Marco de Scordilli- Miranda/Low/Ezra (thanks Sunista!)
Nathan Eide- Corran/Low/Fenn
Charles Holcomb- Strezzra, Jess, Low, Rex (Thanks AlexW!)
Ryan Staniszewski- Nym/BSF/Ezra
Daniel Fiorintini- Dash/Poe (Thanks hawk32 and RStan!)
Chris Little- Lothal/Fenn (Thanks scotothalamos!)
Mark Grawburg- Lothal/Fenn
Josh Holt- Kanan/Fenn
Edited by mdl0114De Scordilli played miranda lowhrick Ezra. He had selflessness on lowhrick
will you be covering some of the slides in an upcoming episode? Because I would love to hear about your process for compiling this and some of the decisions (eg. why >2% is "Top Meta"). Also cant wait to try using 6 week aggregations for myself instead, i never got good data out of grouping by week for trend analysis.
Edited by RynoZeroThis is great work, and a bit funny too, since it does not contain the world champion list at all.
Yes i know why, no explanation needed, yet i still find it amusing.
On 5/6/2018 at 3:27 AM, mdl0114 said:
Chris Little- ?
Lothal Fenn (FAA if it matters)
source: I was at his house tonight playing X-Wing 
2 hours ago, skotothalamos said:Lothal Fenn (FAA if it matters)
source: I was at his house tonight playing X-Wing
Awesome, thanks! Added to the list.
On 5/4/2018 at 3:51 AM, Tlfj200 said:Sorry for the delay in releasing this.
This is not really pertinent for worlds - it’s mostly just a time-series of what we thought were interesting data points.
Presentation contains the notes about how the data was collected. Charts and tables and such.
This was fun to see way after the results, missed it @Tlfj200.
Guess we're all so glad for the Europeans from allowing Worlds from becoming the continuation of Rebel OP. I was very happy to see two 'Old School' squads on the table. IGs and Aces with the Emperor, couldn't be better for fan happiness if it were scripted.
21 minutes ago, clanofwolves said:Guess we're all so glad for the Europeans from allowing Worlds from becoming the continuation of Rebel OP. I was very happy to see two 'Old School' squads on the table. IGs and Aces with the Emperor, couldn't be better for fan happiness if it were scripted.
This statement made me twitch...
On 5/6/2018 at 5:27 AM, mdl0114 said:From that list I can fill in most of the lists but not all.
Duncan Howard- Palp Aces Variant
Marco de Scordilli- Miranda/Low/Ezra* (thanks Sunista!)
Jelte de Boer- Palp Aces Variant (Yorr/QD/INQ)
Alexander Birt- Palp Aces (Yorr/QD/INQ)
Jan Swirski- Miranda, Low, Jess
Paul Heaver- Miranda, Low, Fenn
Keenan Childs- ? Maybe RAClo/INQ?
Daniel Fiorintini- ?
Ryan Staniszewski- Nym/BSF/Ezra
Charles Holcomb- ?
Simeon Dellapina- Control Bots
Chris Little- Lothal/Fenn (Thanks scotothalamos!)
Mark Grawburg- Lothal/Fenn
Nathan Eide- Corran/Low/Fenn
Josh Holt- Kanan/Fenn
I believe Keenan Childs played Vader/QD/Nu and Charles Holcomb played Strezzra, Jess, Low, Rex. I played against both of them (though at this point I may be mixing up Keenan's list with another of my opponents)
25 minutes ago, AlexW said:I believe Keenan Childs played Vader/QD/Nu and Charles Holcomb played Strezzra, Jess, Low, Rex. I played against both of them (though at this point I may be mixing up Keenan's list with another of my opponents)
That's Keenan's list.
38 minutes ago, AlexW said:I believe Keenan Childs played Vader/QD/Nu and Charles Holcomb played Strezzra, Jess, Low, Rex. I played against both of them (though at this point I may be mixing up Keenan's list with another of my opponents)
Thanks, both added to the list!
If anyone knows Daniel Fiorintini’s list I think that’s the only missing one from the top 16.
16 minutes ago, mdl0114 said:If anyone knows Daniel Fiorintini’s list I think that’s the only missing one from the top 16.
Was it Dash/Poe?
16 minutes ago, hawk32 said:Was it Dash/Poe?
Can confirm it was Dash/Poe @mdl0114. Mentioned on Mynock interview episode and talked with him at worlds about it.
Edited by RStan