So, comparing some math here

1) AT-ST main gun should be 1.5 + 1 + 0.5 = 3 Hits unmodded. If you add the light blaster (1 of each die), you get 4.5 hits unmodded.

1 squad of Bikes should be 1.75 + 1.25 + .75 = 3.75 Hits unmodded. Thus, 2 squads taking shots would be an insane 7.5 Hits unmodded!

2) The AT-ST will have impact 3, then impact 4 if you add the light blaster.

1 Squad of Bikes will total impact 2, while 2 would thus total impact 4.

3) AT-ST with light blaster costs 215 squad points, 2 bike squads will be about 180 to 210 squad points.

4) Both AT-ST and Bikes have a white defense die (33.3% Block), though the AT ST has Armor and the Bikes Cover 1.

Soooo, with that in mind, some thoughts:

> Once a bike squad takes 3 damage, its unmodded offense drops to 1.875 Impact 1 (for one bike). An AT ST has to take 9 damage before it has a small chance of losing a weapon, so likely its offense will stay full power until 11 damage.

> AT-ST has strong melee, the bike has no melee.

> AT-ST can displace at will and provides cover to troops. The Bikes can only displace on a compulsory move, and do not provide cover.

> The AT-ST can stand still and own a section of the map. It can aim and shoot, or move and shoot. It can hit one squad multiple times. The compulsory move makes this difficult for the bike to do. You can move, take a shot, but next turn you will have to move again. You can 90 degree turn for compulsory as the bike, and then use a speed 1 to 90 degree again, but that will depend on terrain, etc.

_________________________

So, it seems taking two bike squads vs taking an AT-ST comes down to play style. I play Rebels in X-Wing, so I personally prefer slow-roll tanky units, but the Bikes definitely have a stronger alpha strike (assuming you can keep all 4 alive to shoot at the same target). The AT-ST will provide more consistent damage throughout the game, as it is likely to live the whole time.

5 hours ago, HanScottFirst said:

So, comparing some math here

1) AT-ST main gun should be 1.5 + 1 + 0.5 = 3 Hits unmodded. If you add the light blaster (1 of each die), you get 4.5 hits unmodded.

1 squad of Bikes should be 1.75 + 1.25 + .75 = 3.75 Hits unmodded. Thus, 2 squads taking shots would be an insane 7.5 Hits unmodded!

2) The AT-ST will have impact 3, then impact 4 if you add the light blaster.

1 Squad of Bikes will total impact 2, while 2 would thus total impact 4.

3) AT-ST with light blaster costs 215 squad points, 2 bike squads will be about 180 to 210 squad points.

4) Both AT-ST and Bikes have a white defense die (33.3% Block), though the AT ST has Armor and the Bikes Cover 1.

Soooo, with that in mind, some thoughts:

> Once a bike squad takes 3 damage, its unmodded offense drops to 1.875 Impact 1 (for one bike). An AT ST has to take 9 damage before it has a small chance of losing a weapon, so likely its offense will stay full power until 11 damage.

> AT-ST has strong melee, the bike has no melee.

> AT-ST can displace at will and provides cover to troops. The Bikes can only displace on a compulsory move, and do not provide cover.

> The AT-ST can stand still and own a section of the map. It can aim and shoot, or move and shoot. It can hit one squad multiple times. The compulsory move makes this difficult for the bike to do. You can move, take a shot, but next turn you will have to move again. You can 90 degree turn for compulsory as the bike , and then use a speed 1 to 90 degree again, but that will depend on terrain, etc.

_________________________

So, it seems taking two bike squads vs taking an AT-ST comes down to play style. I play Rebels in X-Wing, so I personally prefer slow-roll tanky units, but the Bikes definitely have a stronger alpha strike (assuming you can keep all 4 alive to shoot at the same target). The AT-ST will provide more consistent damage throughout the game, as it is likely to live the whole time.

This is incorrect. A vehicle must move it's full movement for it's compulsory move.

Bikes having 3 actions is going to be their biggest strength. Being able to Move + Dodge/Aim + Shoot will be devastating.

4 minutes ago, jbiondo said:

This is incorrect. A vehicle must move it's full movement for it's compulsory move.

My bad for not being clear - I'm not referencing a pivot. You take the 3 speed template, and turn the second portion all the way to 90 degrees. Then you can use a 1-speed template and effectively turn around with another 90 degree. Or I guess you could pivot, etc.

That might give you a shot at the unit you just shot at the round before, but had to compulsory move fly past.

2 minutes ago, HanScottFirst said:

My bad for not being clear - I'm not referencing a pivot. You take the 3 speed template, and turn the second portion all the way to 90 degrees. Then you can use a 1-speed template and effectively turn around with another 90 degree. Or I guess you could pivot, etc.

That might give you a shot at the unit you just shot at the round before, but had to compulsory move fly past.

ahhh thanks for the clarification!

No problem! Yeah looking at it, it was not worded well xD Thanks for helping me clarify.

Ultimately I think it comes down to a strategic choice, a more static defensive army may well benefit for having the AT-ST.

However, it feels quite predatory having bikes flank your opponent and just take on targets of opportunity with a move/aim/shoot. If you get even 2 models from the target that is now 2 models less when they come to shoot back.

As such the attrition your bikes get is meaningful to them. However the AT-ST, given that the heavy weapon is probably the second to last to go, doesn't benefit from the attrition of combat quite as much.

9 hours ago, HanScottFirst said:

So, comparing some math here

1) AT-ST main gun should be 1.5 + 1 + 0.5 = 3 Hits unmodded. If you add the light blaster (1 of each die), you get 4.5 hits unmodded.

1 squad of Bikes should be 1.75 + 1.25 + .75 = 3.75 Hits unmodded. Thus, 2 squads taking shots would be an insane 7.5 Hits unmodded!

2) The AT-ST will have impact 3, then impact 4 if you add the light blaster.

1 Squad of Bikes will total impact 2, while 2 would thus total impact 4.

3) AT-ST with light blaster costs 215 squad points, 2 bike squads will be about 180 to 210 squad points.

4) Both AT-ST and Bikes have a white defense die (33.3% Block), though the AT ST has Armor and the Bikes Cover 1.

Soooo, with that in mind, some thoughts:

> Once a bike squad takes 3 damage, its unmodded offense drops to 1.875 Impact 1 (for one bike). An AT ST has to take 9 damage before it has a small chance of losing a weapon, so likely its offense will stay full power until 11 damage.

> AT-ST has strong melee, the bike has no melee.

> AT-ST can displace at will and provides cover to troops. The Bikes can only displace on a compulsory move, and do not provide cover.

> The AT-ST can stand still and own a section of the map. It can aim and shoot, or move and shoot. It can hit one squad multiple times. The compulsory move makes this difficult for the bike to do. You can move, take a shot, but next turn you will have to move again. You can 90 degree turn for compulsory as the bike, and then use a speed 1 to 90 degree again, but that will depend on terrain, etc.

_________________________

So, it seems taking two bike squads vs taking an AT-ST comes down to play style. I play Rebels in X-Wing, so I personally prefer slow-roll tanky units, but the Bikes definitely have a stronger alpha strike (assuming you can keep all 4 alive to shoot at the same target). The AT-ST will provide more consistent damage throughout the game, as it is likely to live the whole time.

You've forget the armor keyword for the ST, this will reduce incoming damage massive. On the other hand you've also forget the cover keyword for the bikes.

I don't get how AT-ST got less stat touch than Speederbikes where they have the same dices. The AT-ST does not have surge damage ? (this is the only explanation I can find ^^', as I still do not have my big walking armoured chicken)

Another thing to keep in mind. If the bikes take 3 hits, his stats goes down. If take 6 hits, goes down again. The At-St's stats remain stable regardless of accumulated damage.

Another point of view is, an attack pool with many dices is better than two attack pools with less dices even when they are bringing combined more dices than the first attack pool.

Ill just add that the bikes look very cool, while the ATST is amazingly cool.

I'm not saying the speeder bikes are bad. But if my options are 2 speeder bikes or the AT-ST, I'm taking the AT-ST 10 times out of 10.

Games I have played against bikes hurt lol AT-ST I can handle...pesky bikes are Bantha poodoo sleemos lol

Just for completion's sake, it's worth noting that the reverse move on the AT-ST is very useful in general, but in particular can be used to target something behind you in many situations.

54 minutes ago, LunarSol said:

Just for completion's sake, it's worth noting that the reverse move on the AT-ST is very useful in general, but in particular can be used to target something behind you in many situations.

Compulsary move at 45 or 90 degree angle plus pivot will allow the bikes to shoot at things behind much more reliably than the reverse of the AT-ST, but being able to increase the range band by walking backwards is a boon the big chicken has over the bikes.

Ultimately, both units are great and entirely different other than sharing the same initial attack pool. In this respect this could literally be a discussion about any unit being better than any other unit.

Horses for courses.

The bikes definitely do it better, hence the "for completion's sake". I just see a lot of players locally get stuck with something behind them not realizing its pretty trivial to get them in arc with a single move action.

Dice are random with any outcome. Sure you can modify the dice in your favor and calculate the statistics, but they don't mean jack on the table except for deciding a course of actions.

Before reading further please remember that speeder bikes and AT-ST are used for entirely different strategies and roles.

I look at it as if it were a perfect match between the 2. For instance the speeder bikes roll all crits against the at-st and the at-St. rolls all crits at the speeder bike, and neither are successful on their defensive shots.

With that in mind I can already say the AT-ST. is far superior to the bikes.

If the AT-ST has initiative it completely destroys one squad of bikes and destroys one on the other.

Bikes follow up with only dealing 3 crits to the AT-ST.

If the bikes have initiative, then one squad shoots and deals 6 damage to the AT-ST. then the AT-ST goes, in a perfect outcome the AT-ST would target the squad that hasn't activated and deal 6 damage with its main weapon, then follow up with the secondary laser cannon to destroy one of the bikes on the other squad.

Now the AT-ST has initiative which follows up with an attack destroying the other one.

Both scenarios the AT-ST comes out on top. Remember that this is a dice game and the outcome is determined by random chance. An AT-ST can lose to 2 speeder bikes if its rolls are **** and the same goes for the the speeder bikes.

I haven't added any outside variables to this scenario cause obviously those would mean turning the outcome in others favor.

People can calculate and create theories. However coming from an experienced miniature player, the only thing calculations and theory work for is determining a course of actions.

2 hours ago, Banditoralf said:

Dice are random with any outcome. Sure you can modify the dice in your favor and calculate the statistics, but they don't mean jack on the table except for deciding a course of actions.

Before reading further please remember that speeder bikes and AT-ST are used for entirely different strategies and roles.

I look at it as if it were a perfect match between the 2. For instance the speeder bikes roll all crits against the at-st and the at-St. rolls all crits at the speeder bike, and neither are successful on their defensive shots.

With that in mind I can already say the AT-ST. is far superior to the bikes.

If the AT-ST has initiative it completely destroys one squad of bikes and destroys one on the other.

Bikes follow up with only dealing 3 crits to the AT-ST.

If the bikes have initiative, then one squad shoots and deals 6 damage to the AT-ST. then the AT-ST goes, in a perfect outcome the AT-ST would target the squad that hasn't activated and deal 6 damage with its main weapon, then follow up with the secondary laser cannon to destroy one of the bikes on the other squad.

Now the AT-ST has initiative which follows up with an attack destroying the other one.

Both scenarios the AT-ST comes out on top. Remember that this is a dice game and the outcome is determined by random chance. An AT-ST can lose to 2 speeder bikes if its rolls are **** and the same goes for the the speeder bikes.

I haven't added any outside variables to this scenario cause obviously those would mean turning the outcome in others favor.

People can calculate and create theories. However coming from an experienced miniature player, the only thing calculations and theory work for is determining a course of actions.

I don't really understand the reason you would present this sort of logic. You're essentially saying, if you take outcome probability out of the equation, and focus only on one specific outcome with a very low probability, then the ATST wins.

I mean, I agree I guess.

However, probability and stats are a real thing, and the math in the OP is pretty spot on from what I can tell. I think determining between one or the other completely comes down to how you want your army to function.

58 minutes ago, Copes said:

I don't really understand the reason you would present this sort of logic. You're essentially saying, if you take outcome probability out of the equation, and focus only on one specific outcome with a very low probability, then the ATST wins.

I mean, I agree I guess.

However, probability and stats are a real thing, and the math in the OP is pretty spot on from what I can tell. I think determining between one or the other completely comes down to how you want your army to function.

I understand the reason behind the calculations I really do, but the odds are not 100% guaranteed to work out the way they are suppose to.

When comparing 2 completely different units brings in many undetermined factors. But no matter what factors are introduced, the outcome is still left to random chance.

The purpose of this example is to remove the RNG and added variables like skill, placement, etc.. and just crunch the numbers as if you were guaranteed perfect.

A little off topic here but when you compare the AT-RT and the speederbikes together (both in the same category.) It comes down to who gets to go first because the AT-RT would destroy one bike before it gets to attack. This means the left over speeder bike is only dealing 3 damage to the AT RT. If the bikes attacked first with perfect dice, the bikes would come out unharmed and destroy the AT-RT.

I am also guilty for crunching numbers too, however I know that they don't mean squat when it comes down to the actual roll.

If I roll 3 dice with a 33% success rate, that would mean I get one success and 2 failures. However it's still possible for me to fail on all 3 or miraculously succeed on all 3

Though when it comes down to it there are to many variables to determine which would be better.

0.000000745% of the time, it wins every time.

There's sort of a metaphor of statistics: If every goblin of your army shots its bow at the huge dragon, even if they basically have no chance statistically to kill it, it should die.

That doesn't mean that you shouldn't think on optimised ways of doing stuff.

Like Mark Twain said:

"There are lies, damned lies, and then statistics."