Objectively, no - the game is clearly more popular than ever. Anecdotally, not really - my local group has had an influx of new players and no major 'dropouts'. That said, I do feel the game is declining in integrity, if not popularity. Severe design errors and oversights continue to be made, showing that the design team are not learning from previous mistakes, as well as increasingly poor FAQ decisions. Power creep and accretion are both in full swing, and thus the gap between 'the top' ships/pilots and 'the rest' is widening, with an ever-decreasing percentage of 'viable' choices from the vast array present. It definitely feels that list building and unforeseen borked card combinations play a much bigger part in winning than they ever used to.
Personally, I'm more or less done - I still play on my regular game night, but it's far more because of the people than the game, and my interest in tournaments (or buying expansions) is nigh at absolute zero as I just don't have the mental energy to combat a monstrosity like Ghost-Fenn or NymRanda any more.

1 minute ago, MalusCalibur said:

Objectively, no - the game is clearly more popular than ever. Anecdotally, not really

Not even that; just look at the data points from list juggler; tournaments are having a massive turnout, especially in Europe.

But people need to stop engaging as this account is a troll account when you look at it's history

1 hour ago, Baaa said:

It's ok saying that such and such a competition has increased but if the casual player numbers at local stores are decreasing then something is wrong with the state of the game.

At least in my local scene, it's not that player numbers are decreasing, but that some of the veteran players are moving on to other games. We'd got a reasonable number of former 40k players who had drifted away from the game over the course of 6th/7th ed, and have been re-enthused with 8th edition. But numbers are staying stable as we're getting new players to replace the ones who are moving on to other games.

The competing games factor is a very real one - if you've only got one evening a week you can make it down to your FLGS to play with tiny soldiers/spaceships, you're going to have to pick and choose how you spend that time.

Even just looking at FFG's offerings, there's multiple different ways that you can Star Wars game at the moment. We're certainly getting some X-Wing players at least temporarily choosing Legion over X-Wing.

Quote

I've never seen Saw Gerrera's stunning paintjob. If that isn't milking the player base then what is?

It was in a couple of episodes of Rebels, so a reasonable amount of screen time by most standards. I'm slightly sad we're not getting any new Rebel ships in Wave 14, but the X-Wing and U-Wing are both iconic Star Wars ships. (The U-Wing being new to that roster, but probably has more movie screen time than the A-Wing, B-Wing, or probably Y-Wing.)

My local club has gone from about 5 regular players to about 9 in the space of 3 months, all the new people are new to the game and loving getting into it.

The UK just had the biggest event in the world, second time that has happened in 3 years. The Euros in June is close to selling out and therefore equaling/passing those numbers. Worlds is filled up as always.

Basing an idea that a game is dead on your local shop and friends is crazy. Would be like me saying no one watches American Football because I don't and no one I know does. Pure tunnel vision.

1 hour ago, Marinealver said:

Well Armada is no better now getting the Nerfrata treatment.

Sort of like FFG forgot this is a table top game and not some P2W online only game as service video game.

The Armada nerfs are of a different scale though. It wasn't "This thing is really far above the power curve; nerf hard", it was "this thing is a bit above the power curve, and a bit easy to trigger; mechanical nerf".

FFG does seem to treat their player base like sheeple though. Since wave 8 (excluding wave 10) there has been power creep upon power creep.

12 minutes ago, InterceptorMad said:

My local club has gone from about 5 regular players to about 9 in the space of 3 months, all the new people are new to the game and loving getting into it.

The UK just had the biggest event in the world, second time that has happened in 3 years. The Euros in June is close to selling out and therefore equaling/passing those numbers. Worlds is filled up as always.

Basing an idea that a game is dead on your local shop and friends is crazy. Would be like me saying no one watches American Football because I don't and no one I know does. Pure tunnel vision.

Of course, you yourself have expressed nothing but your personal view, and statistical observations. Regardless of player participation (which I believe is becoming polarised into 'casual', 'competitive' and 'not playing anymore' rapidly), the greatest measure is the game's mechanics and overall feel.

The top pilots haven't changed in a long, long time. Meta lists get guaranteed (nearly) wins against anything tier 2 and below. Many upgrades in the game are simply auto-triggers (and strong, cheap ones at that) with no downside. Harpoons are stupid - thematically and mechanically. Yada yada. The point is that FFG continues to make the same, rather large mistakes over and over again, compromising game health for short-term profit.

Personally, I'll start ditching X-wing if the T-65 fix doesn't impress.

I mean, kinda? Again personal experience, but factual, but I am always surprised at events like the UK open every year how many people I speak to that say it is their first or second event ever, or have only been playing for a year or less (compared to me playing since wave 4)

But, I'm basing these things on going all around the country playing at various different events and speaking to lots of different people. Not just a local store with a rather small player base and personal friends. Like I said, it would be like not doing something myself, therefore thinking that thing isn't done at all or is now dead.

AND seeing how many people still use this forum and have recently joined/said they are starting the game. And the huge UK facebook group KEEPS getting new members and players.

Basically, you can call my observations what you like, but the facts that this game is doing the opposite of dying kinda stacks up when you look at it beyond your local meta.

3 minutes ago, Astech said:

Personally, I'll start ditching X-wing if the T-65 fix doesn't impress.

I flew three Rookie Pilots with Flight Assist Astromech and Integrated Astromech at the UK Open. It was fun, I got some good results, maybe you should try putting them on the the table?

1 hour ago, Jarval said:

At least in my local scene, it's not that player numbers are decreasing, but that some of the veteran players are moving on to other games. We'd got a reasonable number of former 40k players who had drifted away from the game over the course of 6th/7th ed, and have been re-enthused with 8th edition. But numbers are staying stable as we're getting new players to replace the ones who are moving on to other games.

Even just looking at FFG's offerings, there's multiple different ways that you can Star Wars game at the moment. We're certainly getting some X-Wing players at least temporarily choosing Legion over X-Wing.

This is a fair point, but will people come back?

Quote

The competing games factor is a very real one - if you've only got one evening a week you can make it down to your FLGS to play with tiny soldiers/spaceships, you're going to have to pick and choose how you spend that time.

I'd disagree with you here; tournament players will hang around a game longer than casual players will and as long as there's prize support from FFG they'll continue to do so. But if the number of casual players at local venues drops; who's going to entice people into the game?

At my gaming club there are at least half a dozen players who've sacked the game. Again, it isn't indicative of the state of the game overall and as I don't go to every gaming club in the UK I'm not going to pretend that it is, but I still think that the game has plateaued.

Quote

It was in a couple of episodes of Rebels, so a reasonable amount of screen time by most standards. I'm slightly sad we're not getting any new Rebel ships in Wave 14, but the X-Wing and U-Wing are both iconic Star Wars ships. (The U-Wing being new to that roster, but probably has more movie screen time than the A-Wing, B-Wing, or probably Y-Wing.)

I've never seen Rebels.

Cheers
Baaa

2 hours ago, Baaa said:

@OP: To answer your question no.
But based on the number of players in my area who've lost interest in it then it's looking like a game that's peaked. That's obviously not a great indicator for the state of the game overall, but if you look at other posts in this thread that are saying something similar then it could be indicative of a trend.

It's ok saying that such and such a competition has increased but if the casual player numbers at local stores are decreasing then something is wrong with the state of the game.

Personally? I think the rot started when Asmodee bought the game out. I've no idea how much they paid for it but they've got to recoup that money somehow, and this is evident by introducing ships to the game with less than a minutes worth of screentime (yes you Quadjumper you fugly little ship) and Saw's Renegades. They're even boasting about the fact that they can't be bothered bringing new products to market -

"Rather than introducing completely new ships to the game, this expansion follows in the vein of the Rebel Aces Expansion Pack and the Heroes of the Resistance Expansion Pack by introducing new versions of existing ships already in the service of the Rebel Alliance. In this case, you’ll find two new ship miniatures—a U-wing and a T-65 X-wing, both pre-painted in the stunning red-and-white paint scheme of Saw Gerrera’s freedom fighters."

I've never seen Saw Gerrera's stunning paintjob. If that isn't milking the player base then what is?

Rant aside, imho the game is in very real danger of stagnating and ultimately dying unless something can be done to redress the reasons for people dropping it.

Cheers
Baaa

I'm confused: if you don't want non-movie (or barely-movie) ships and you don't want rereleased movie ships, what else is there? One wave per year only with a new movie? That would be proper stagnation.

2 minutes ago, Dasharr said:

I'm confused: if you don't want non-movie (or barely-movie) ships and you don't want rereleased movie ships, what else is there? One wave per year only with a new movie? That would be proper stagnation.

I never said that I didn't want them; I said that Asmodee were milking the game for all it's worth.

Cheers
Baaa

29 minutes ago, InterceptorMad said:

I mean, kinda? Again personal experience, but factual, but I am always surprised at events like the UK open every year how many people I speak to that say it is their first or second event ever, or have only been playing for a year or less (compared to me playing since wave 4)

But, I'm basing these things on going all around the country playing at various different events and speaking to lots of different people. Not just a local store with a rather small player base and personal friends. Like I said, it would be like not doing something myself, therefore thinking that thing isn't done at all or is now dead.

AND seeing how many people still use this forum and have recently joined/said they are starting the game. And the huge UK facebook group KEEPS getting new members and players.

Basically, you can call my observations what you like, but the facts that this game is doing the opposite of dying kinda stacks up when you look at it beyond your local meta.

It's interesting, what you're saying, for a few reasons. It's heartening to hear there are indeed a lot of new players. But if you think about it, you don't want a large proportion of 'first tournament' players, because that means that more of them aren't coming back for seconds, by definition.

You've certainly got more of a global perspective than me (small Australain City player), but you're in a country with a very high population density and wealth, and the same goes for the US. You're looking at the hot spots of FFG activity in general, where prize support, tournament support and distribution speed is faster, while game cost is far lower. It's natural for hype to last longer, and negativity to be drowned out. If "worlds" moved around, I'm sure all the other nationalities would be a tad more excited about the game.

The forums have been a little slow recetly, but they're never an indication of the game's state. Salt is one thing, but mostly it's because the more dedicated players tend to be on here.

Now, I certainly don't think the game is "dying"... yet. However, if you know much about graphs, you'd have to agree that the rate of change of the rate of change of number f players is decreasing. Give it a few years and the game will have a consistent, stable player base. In a few more it'll decline, given its current design choices.

My local meta, when we play, happens to be pretty great. We have people who manage to do well with triple Punisher lists, and Dash is about the strongest thing you'll see most of the time.

41 minutes ago, FTS Gecko said:

I flew three Rookie Pilots with Flight Assist Astromech and Integrated Astromech at the UK Open. It was fun, I got some good results, maybe you should try putting them on the the table?

It's not really my cup of tea. I'm a quadjumper and Kihraxz kind of guy. What I'm looking forward to is flying against T-65s, and potentially a new wingmate for Dash. As-is I get very solid results flying a Kihraxz and Quadjumper with Asajj.

2 hours ago, Hexdot said:

The wheel of pain...

SPRING. New game. Young. Fresh. Few material available.

SUMMER. Job well done. Players eager to buy more and more. "Game of the Year". New groups every day, everywhere.

AUTUM. Zillions of expansions. But game evolves and it is not the same. Last Codex Best Codex. Fans plays the game on a regular basis, but perhaps a little tired. Not easy to start playing now.

WINTER. People start moving away. Too many expansions. Bad combos and interactions. New edition or Die.

I think this is AUTUM.

This is pretty solid. I'm not even sure we are in Autumn, as I think we've seen the first few flakes of snow start to fall as the sun sets earlier and earlier. Just based on the Trade/Sell groups, it feels like on average 1-2 collections go on sale every day. Very few seem to ever garnish attention or get purchased, unless it all happens in Private Messages. Locally, a few years ago there to be a vibrant scene of 20-30 players at Kit Events, and the events are less frequent now and tend to draw 4-8 players. Many familiar faces have since moved on (some to Destiny, some to Legion) and it's been a looooong time since I've met someone new in the local scene.

Large tournaments are a different story, because attendance seems to be roughly stable (and in a few events even larger than past years), but they're probably not the metric I'd use to see if a game has peaked. The most die-hard (try-hard?) players are the ones who will stick with the game longest, and I say this as one of them. We've spent the most money and the most free-time on X-Wing, and we have the biggest "Fear of Missing Out" if we step away for a Wave or two, because we worry about falling behind the meta. We also have the most other reasons to invest in X-Wing outside of the enjoyment that playing an actual individual game brings (seeing/communicating with the 'regular' tourney scene members, getting recognition for a good placement, etc.), and this can keep us going even if we don't enjoy the gameplay. We will typically be more comfortable flying lists that go beyond our own personal preferences for characters, ship-types, etc. The most competitive section of the playerbase is, I suspect, the worst metric to check when looking at the overall health of the game (you can even find the most die-hard players still playing in small niche tournaments for dead games that have been dead for 15 years at Gencon and other cons, as those are the players who are least likely to let go).




I think there a few points I'd consider pretty true, albeit it anecdotal, that strongly suggest the X-Wing bubble has burst:
(1) The game is hemorrhaging players
(2) The secondary market for prize support and used ships has plummeted in the past few years
(3) The forum and podcast communities are, generally speaking, overwhelmingly toxic and negative with regards to the game's health, the game's fun, the game's balance, etc.


Will X-Wing and the community survive the "popping" of the bubble? Most definitely, but it's not ever going to be like it was from 2013-2016... before the Dark Times... before Wave 8.

10 hours ago, heychadwick said:

It's kind of dying in our area. A lot of the podcasts are burning out.

Well then, you are exception of the norm. Events are sold out all over the world, SOS tournaments are setting new records for attendance, in my local community X-Wing in popularity is next to MtG.
People love X-Wing. I can only laugh when I see threads like this - because it is as far from reality as it can be.

Let's face it - this forum gives distorted view of reality, because it is full of laser-brain nerf herders and scrubs. Meanwhile most X-Wing enthusiasts just play the game, attend the tournaments and don't bother to posts in this cesspool known as an X-Wing forum.

Well, as still relatively new to X-Wing (how long do you have to play before you're no longer new?), I don't see the game as dying. In the past few weeks, we've had at least 2-3 new players join the local group, I've talked a friend of mine down in Texas to start playing, and I met a kid at CaC that just started playing as well. Anecdotal, of course, but enough evidence to me that the game isn't dead. Having problems? Sure. But not dead.

EDIT: Forgot to add that my local game store will be hosting a City vs City tournament here in the next couple of weeks, and they've had such interest that they're looking to field two local-ish teams.

As for the TLJ hate, I really don't see the connection between it and the game. I HATED TLJ with a fiery passion. It was the first SW movie released in my lifetime that I didn't see in theaters, and only forced my way through watching a bootleg copy by getting drunk in the process. It's a horrible film that failed on almost every level. That said, I still like Star Wars. Plenty of good films, and far more amazing books, games, shows, and other stories out there to keep me interested, even if Disney is trying to run the franchise into the ground. To anybody that did enjoy the films, good for you; I simply could not ignore the bad in this one.

4 hours ago, Astech said:

Good point. By wave 4 X-wing was dominated by off-screen ships like E-wings and Phantoms. From that point forward it went downhill.

In Armada, ISDs are a very viable, very thematic threat. People stop and stare at the game in ways they never did with X-wing.

I don't know if you just like to stir up things or really think what you write here down.
Because I see you on the Vassal all the time. Do you whine just for the sake of whining? I don't think sane human being would spend huge amounts of time playing game that he dislike or think that it is bad.

the games is fun.
the miniatures are cool.
even the competitive meta is healthier than 2016-ish.

Yeah, its a pain to play agains ghost+fen, Nymranda. It was a pain to play vs Dengaroo, vs Chira-Whisper.
Its a pain to play vs 4x auzies as its a pain to play vs 4xBs

Main problem, maybe, its that iconic ships and pilot are in the low point of the power curve, since a long time.
Luke, Vader (got some sunshine), Han (had its moments).

Poe, Rey, Kylo arent iconic yet (and, never will, not like the old ones anyway), even if they see play, the age group of players

In my humble opinion, Star wars in general peaked in the Force Awakens, and now, we are in the weird place that the new characters arent exactly charismatic enough to attract the game, and the miniatures need to be more recognizeable.

12 minutes ago, Embir82 said:

Well then, you are exception of the norm. Events are sold out all over the world, SOS tournaments are setting new records for attendance, in my local community X-Wing in popularity is next to MtG.
People love X-Wing. I can only laugh when I see threads like this - because it is as far from reality as it can be.

Let's face it - this forum gives distorted view of reality, because it is full of laser-brain nerf herders and scrubs. Meanwhile most X-Wing enthusiasts just play the game, attend the tournaments and don't bother to posts in this cesspool known as an X-Wing forum.

Based on what data, exactly? And before you supply it, keep in mind you've got a maximum of 5 year's data for the game, and about 2 years of it being a big thing.

This forum is also full of the most intelligent players in the community, with the most reputable backgrounds. I suggest you have a look at some of Major Juggler's posts about how seriosly broken some cards are. And, unlike MTG, FFG can take years to nerf anything that's a big offender.

12 minutes ago, Alpha17 said:

Well, as still relatively new to X-Wing (how long do you have to play before you're no longer new?), I don't see the game as dying. In the past few weeks, we've had at least 2-3 new players join the local group, I've talked a friend of mine down in Texas to start playing, and I met a kid at CaC that just started playing as well. Anecdotal, of course, but enough evidence to me that the game isn't dead. Having problems? Sure. But not dead.

Definitely not dead. Dead is a game that's no longer supported by the producers (or very rarely) with no new products released and a dwindling or nonexistent competitive scene. But the game's getting worse, and will continue to get worse almost certainly.

14 minutes ago, Embir82 said:

I don't know if you just like to stir up things or really think what you write here down.
Because I see you on the Vassal all the time. Do you whine just for the sake of whining? I don't think sane human being would spend huge amounts of time playing game that he dislike or think that it is bad.

Whoah, that level of salt is a bit uncalled for...

I don't believe I've contradicted myself here. I dislike the direction the game's going, and for the moment I'm not buying any more product until I can be sure it's a good investment, but I'm still a very active, very avid player of a game system I enjoy. In addition, Vassal is a area in which I can find a lot of very talented and humorous players with intriguing, strong lists. It's possibly the best meta at the moment.

I despise a large amount of the current meta, and most of the people who fly it competitively. So I fly what I like and try to have a good time, which I do. Except when I play people like you, who seem to take everything as an insult. Maybe relax and have some fun?

7 minutes ago, Astech said:

So I fly what I like and try to have a good time, which I do...

So do I , but then again I only have 3 ships left.
Actually that's technically a lie, I now have 4, because I had to buy me a Gunboat.
But I only play with my three little ships.

Cheers
Baaa

11 minutes ago, Baaa said:

So do I , but then again I only have 3 ships left.
Actually that's technically a lie, I now have 4, because I had to buy me a Gunboat.
But I only play with my three little ships.

Cheers
Baaa

I'm curious, which three ships do you fly?

2 minutes ago, Astech said:

I'm curious, which three ships do you fly?

TIE Advanced (35pts): Darth Vader, VI, Title, EU, ATC
TAP (30pts): The Inquisitor, PTL, Title, Twin Ion Engine
TIE Defender (35pts): Countess Ryad, Juke, Title, Twin Ion Engine

Cheers
Baaa

12 minutes ago, Astech said:

Based on what data, exactly? And before you supply it, keep in mind you've got a maximum of 5 year's data for the game, and about 2 years of it being a big thing.

What is your point here?
Data is available everywhere. Just check events sites which informed you how many places or tickets were left for players to buy.

13 minutes ago, Astech said:

This forum is also full of the most intelligent players in the community, with the most reputable backgrounds. I suggest you have a look at some of Major Juggler's posts about how seriosly broken some cards are. And, unlike MTG, FFG can take years to nerf anything that's a big offender.

And on the contrary there is a lot of respectable, talented players for which X-Wing is in completely fine place and who don't even bother to check this forum, because let's face it, it is infested with balance whine and inept balance ideas made by people who got no idea about how to play and win in this game.
Major Juggler, with all respect, is not an arbiter when it comes to X-Wing - he is just a guy who dislikes X-Wing and tries to promote his house rules under the invalid name of "community mod".
Also I don't need to hear opinions of other people to have opinion if X-Wing is in fine place or not. Don't want to brag or anything but in last regional tournament and SOS I ended up in top 16 and top 8 respectively, with 5-1 result in swiss in both tournaments. I think I know sufficiently enough about this game to form my own opinion if it is in fine place or not.

28 minutes ago, Astech said:

I despise a large amount of the current meta, and most of the people who fly it competitively. So I fly what I like and try to have a good time, which I do. Except when I play people like you, who seem to take everything as an insult. Maybe relax and have some fun?

Then I suggest to you to participate in at least one competitve event, because your opinion is just completely unreasonable. Because people in events, even more competitve ones, more often than not are one of the most friendly, funny and nice people to share time with.
This opinion shows how much of an armchair expert you are, and frankly it shows you got no idea about competitve side of X-Wing.

Embir82, your arguments are similar to those displayed by "hard core" players in my area. So they are reduced to a group of 6-8 players who really love to field Top Tier squads. Perhaps 25-30 "Casual" players, deploying X Wings and Tie Interceptors. Little interaction between groups. Summer 2016... 100+ players, perhaps 150.

Now GW is rebirthing like a Phoenix. BBowl. Necromunda. WH40k 8 edition. Infinity 3 edition. Mallifaux.

And if many of us continue playing this great game is because gentle players (Odanan, Major Juggler) mantain the Hope. Saying that they "dislike" X Wing is... not accurate.

Play as you like but, as said before, Winter is coming. Adapt. Improve. Enjoy.

5 minutes ago, Hexdot said:

Play as you like but, as said before, Winter is coming. Adapt. Improve. Enjoy.

Haha, man as it stands it should be told to people who maintain that X-Wing is dead. Because they as far from adapting, improving or enjoying this game as they could be.

X-Wing is in a fine spot and people have a blast playing it, which is proven by main events' attendance.

2 minutes ago, Hexdot said:

Play as you like but, as said before, Winter is coming. Adapt. Improve. Enjoy.

Considering the Games Workshop analogy, this is probably as good a place as any to reiterate that unlike GW, who own the IP for the games they make, FFG produces the X-Wing Miniatures Game under license from Lucasarts/Disney. Which means that at some point, the license may switch hands. The license may end, Disney may give it to a different company, take it in house, whatever. But at some point, Organised Play support could well cease, new product releases could well cease and rules updates could well cease.

So if you enjoy the game, you better make hay while the sun shines, because who knows what tomorrow may bring?

Also the GW analogy isn't that great, as yes they have brought back a bunch of games people loved back in the day. But, they also only release one or two things for that game in stores and then hand it off to a linked company to just sell online and don't support it in other ways. My local GW manager literally had this convo with someone in store:

Guy: "So is Blood Bowl doing well?"
Manager: "Well, BB is BB. The people who wanted it bought it..."
Guy: "So do people play it in store much, I thought about getting into it"
Manager: "Eh, not really."

Yes for a few weeks these games make GW look like a rising phoenix and bringing back all the old favs. But that's all they care about, that initial release and sales. After a few weeks, they are onto the next thing and don't really care if you carry on playing Blood Bowl or Necromunda. They got that initial spend from you, and know you'll get other stuff here and there. FFG actually pushes their stuff and organizes huge events multiple times a year, year after year, to keep it going.