That’s not a bad guess based on your analysis @viedit, though slightly longer odds than the wonder bug. All I know is it’ll be Rebel heavy to be sure; they have the best tools for damage, control, defense, regen, and point fortressing....they’re stacked.

Here’s a betting man’s question: over under on percentage of Rebel squads at Worlds 2018? 60% ?

8 hours ago, LordBlades said:

I doubt it. The only times meta was broad IMO was between the moment of a great nerf and the moment somebody solves the new meta and wins a major event with the new hotness. X-wing has layers upon layers upon layers of imbalances built over time. Peeling off the top layer just means the one right underneath becomes the top layer.

That's just how the game is built. Periodic nerfs and/or power creep keep the game interesting, by changing what's on top, that's all. Personally, I feel x-wing, at least with the current design team, will never be a perfectly balanced game. It will always be a game of top lists and inferior options. In practice, I'd rather accept that and focus on what the game is, and why it's fun, instead of lamenting what the game isn't (and IMO will never be) too much.

It's true, and the layers are pretty distinct (Saboteur<<Expose<<Outmaneuver<<Ion Cannon<<PTL, for example), but what's key is the size of the layers.

At any given time, one or two lists take the 'Tier 0' position of unrivalled 'best list', which assuming equal skill and dice, will beat anything else. Tier 0 lists typically include the most OP aspects of the game, all mashed together in a highly synergistic way. Maybe 4-6 individual pilots and 15-20 upgrades fall into this category at any one time.

The 'Tier 1' lists often contain OP cards, or are simply comprised of some very strong, balanced components (Like 3Nu+QD), and have a great chance against Tier 0 lists, albeit less than 50%. Because Tier 1 lists aren't shooting for the strongest possible combo - merely near it - the whole tier massively broadens into dozens of lists, with hundreds of variations. You're looking at dozens of pilots (whole ships, even) and perhaps 30 viable upgrade cards.

Tier 2 is where the game explodes. You're still building a competitive list, with a whole number percentage chance against Tier 0 lists, and a slightly less than 50% chance against Tier 1 lists, but still very much in it. You're at the point where you can still win a large tournament by outplaying your opponents. At this point, there are hundreds of viable pilots (numerous whole ships) and maybe 50 upgrade cards.

After that the game breaks wide open, but I can accept that these top three tiers are where most people want to be at a tournament.

The thing about the nerfs is that they're always either late or incomplete. Final Form was nerfed rapidly, but they neglected to look at the devastating Kanan/Fenn that was already eclipsing it. Previous to that, nerfs were ubiquitously made after a new wave eclipsed the old meta. Considering how obvious the Tier 0 builds are, it'd be incredibly easy to either slightly tweak them in the design phase or nerf them just after release to take them down to Tier 1. Then the whole game explodes in variety at the level of "best lists", rather than it being an obvious pair of lists.

Just a question...

Are there any pre wave 7 pilots who are still in with a chance? I saw the IGs in the UK, but otherwise pretty much nothing.

It is a very sad state of affairs. I originally joined this game at wave 6 as everyone was raving how relatively balanced it was compared to GW products. I am now back to spending more money on GW as they seem to have realised the error of their previous business model. Apparently 40k has never been as healthy or successful as it currently is. FFG, on the other hand have gone down the power race route, which is why my purchases this year can be measured in 2 digits (GBP) and not 3 as it had been. Even the X wing fix, that I longed for, is not calling me due to the fat lump of dead plastic it is packaged with. I really do not want another U wing, irrespective of whether it becomes competitive or not.

Sort out your act FFG! Between you and Disney, you are killing my desire to invest in your game. And this is my first one with you guys. Shouldn´ t you, as a company, be trying to convince me to invest in your other games, due to the quality of your flagship product? It should not be scaring me away from your other games, that is for sure.

Admittedly @Larky Bobble, you have a real point. I got into X-Wing on the heals of the TIE Phantom/Fat Han craze. Though Han was never touched, FFG took the Phantom down a few notches and the next few Expansion Waves were mostly OK to the K-Wing Wave where Scum and Rebels simply had more tools and options; now Scum has lost that glimmer in the designer’s eyes and Rebels have the only real faction unique imbalance powers in the game. I haven’t purchased new ships either; I’m waiting for a bit more balance in faction specific power-bends.....I refuse to buy a ghost and join the train.

1 hour ago, Larky Bobble said:

Just a question...

Are there any pre wave 7 pilots who are still in with a chance? I saw the IGs in the UK, but otherwise pretty much nothing.

It is a very sad state of affairs. I originally joined this game at wave 6 as everyone was raving how relatively balanced it was compared to GW products. I am now back to spending more money on GW as they seem to have realised the error of their previous business model. Apparently 40k has never been as healthy or successful as it currently is. FFG, on the other hand have gone down the power race route, which is why my purchases this year can be measured in 2 digits (GBP) and not 3 as it had been. Even the X wing fix, that I longed for, is not calling me due to the fat lump of dead plastic it is packaged with. I really do not want another U wing, irrespective of whether it becomes competitive or not.

Sort out your act FFG! Between you and Disney, you are killing my desire to invest in your game. And this is my first one with you guys. Shouldn´ t you, as a company, be trying to convince me to invest in your other games, due to the quality of your flagship product? It should not be scaring me away from your other games, that is for sure.

Dash is still a big thing, and will be until another 4-die tanky turret is released. Corran, Soontir, Carnor, Vessery, Delta Defender, TLT Y-wings, Palpmobiles and RAClo are all still around. Notably RAClo, Corran and Vessery are still super good.

Vessery is good-ish due to the post wave 7 defender fix, even if he’s not exactly tearing up tournaments, and RAClo involves Kylo and Palpatine, both Wave VII+ upgrades that are keeping RAC and his nice ability afloat. Corran, in limited doses, and Dash are probably the only pre-wave VII pilots that still get by without being carried by later upgrade cards and fixes. Carnor is nowhere to be seen in competitive play, for that matter neither is Soontir. Vader has probably had more success as a pilot than either of them recently given his brief appearances with RAClo or as part of imperial alpha strike lists.

8 hours ago, Larky Bobble said:

first one with you guys. Shouldn´ t you, as a company, be trying to convince me to invest in your other games, due to the quality of your flagship product? It should not be scaring me away from your other games, that is for sure.

This is why I haven't bought into legion.