5 minutes ago, KalEl814 said:

Keeping somewhere between 33% - 66% of their corps units (at minimum) engaged in stopping one AT-ST seems like a relatively lousy deal for the Rebels. Sure the Imps will be sad that the big pew isn't pewing but I'd imagine they'd have a much better shot at snagging objectives.

If 33%-66% of Rebels are going pew-pew at the AT-ST the imperial player should stop worrying about the lack of activations and start worrying about the massive AT-ST shaped hole that's about to drop out of his list.

34 minutes ago, KalEl814 said:

Keeping somewhere between 33% - 66% of their corps units (at minimum) engaged in stopping one AT-ST seems like a relatively lousy deal for the Rebels. Sure the Imps will be sad that the big pew isn't pewing but I'd imagine they'd have a much better shot at snagging objectives.

Okay let's do the math.

A Rebel Troopers Unit with MPL-57 fires at an AT-ST.

They roll 4 black dice and 2 red dice. They also have the keywords: Impact 1, and Ion 1.

A black dice crits on 1/8 chance, and 3/8 to hit. The red dice crit on 1/8 chance and hit on 5/8 chance.

So we have and expected value for crits is 3/4 and the expected value for hits is (3/8 x 4 + 5/8 x 2) 11/4.

Granted any hits (not crits) beyond the first will get canceled by the armor because the MPL-57 only has impact 1, but 11/4 is almost 3 full hits, the chance that you will get 0 is pretty slim.

So the actual expected damage for a rebel unit armed with a MPL-57 is almost 2 points and almost guaranteeing that they will get at least 1 damage, meaning they get to put the ion token on.

You do this twice a turn and it doesn't matter if you ever kill the AT-ST it won't be doing anything all game.

Actually Let's do the math to the chances of doing at least 1 damage. (1/2)^4 * (1.4)^2 = 1/256
In other words if you shoot your rebel unit with an MPL-57 at an AT-ST 1000 times it will likely fail to put an ion token on it 4 times.

The key here is that the Impact and Ion keywords are attached to the whole attack dice pool.

That math looks right. You get one free shot where you trade one action for damage and action removal per Ion Rifle unit. Then, after that, your trading two actions (ready and fire) for one action removed and damage. That's pretty fair.

6 minutes ago, Hrathen said:

You do this twice a turn and it doesn't matter if you ever kill the AT-ST it won't be doing anything all game.

Indeed. I don't think it's super likely that 2 Rebel Trooper corps are going to nuke an AT-ST across a 6 round game. And if someone wants to completely dedicate 2 corps to the POSSIBILITY of locking down an AT-ST, therefore ignoring objectives / whatever other units come to mess with them? That doesn't seem like a winning strategy based on the current mission objectives. If they don't keep 2 ion tokens on the AT-ST, they're going to get blasted. The imp could let the AT-ST go last in the current round to clear, and then first in the next round to fire.

I don't think I'd be thrilled with that outcome if I was controlling the AT-ST, but the mooks hunkering down to stall my big gun feels pretty thematic. And if they wanna let me trot Vader up to their spider hole so I can stab them all to death? Or let a speeder bike flank them behind cover? Sure, why not.

7 hours ago, Undeadguy said:

What do you mean by this?

Could you be more specific?

1 hour ago, Hrathen said:

Okay let's do the math.

A Rebel Troopers Unit with MPL-57 fires at an AT-ST.

They roll 4 black dice and 2 red dice. They also have the keywords: Impact 1, and Ion 1.

A black dice crits on 1/8 chance, and 3/8 to hit. The red dice crit on 1/8 chance and hit on 5/8 chance.

So we have and expected value for crits is 3/4 and the expected value for hits is (3/8 x 4 + 5/8 x 2) 11/4.

Granted any hits (not crits) beyond the first will get canceled by the armor because the MPL-57 only has impact 1, but 11/4 is almost 3 full hits, the chance that you will get 0 is pretty slim.

So the actual expected damage for a rebel unit armed with a MPL-57 is almost 2 points and almost guaranteeing that they will get at least 1 damage, meaning they get to put the ion token on.

You do this twice a turn and it doesn't matter if you ever kill the AT-ST it won't be doing anything all game.

Actually Let's do the math to the chances of doing at least 1 damage. (1/2)^4 * (1.4)^2 = 1/256
In other words if you shoot your rebel unit with an MPL-57 at an AT-ST 1000 times it will likely fail to put an ion token on it 4 times.

The key here is that the Impact and Ion keywords are attached to the whole attack dice pool.

Don't forget the defense roll from the AT-ST.

@Undeadguy Yeah, this is a quick a dirty calculation but the overwhelming odds are that you will get about 2 crits through and with a defense dice that blocks a damage 1 time in three, there is still a really good chance that you get the 1 crit through you need to do the ion effect. I am writing up a simulation to to account for things like defense dice and aiming. (The aiming multiple die types was what was hard). When it is done it should be able to calculate the expected values of any attack pool against any defense dice, including dodging and cover when applicable.

@KalEl814

In actual play you likely won't be shooting at the AT-ST every round with two of your corps units. But if you did you would be spending 148 points to shut down at least 200 (likely more since the AT-ST is probably upgraded). So you have more points left over to try to go and play the mission that your opponent does.

Additionally, while taking away a single action does not guarantee that you won't be shot at, the AT-ST only has a front arc so it won't be able to move and shoot. And shutting down one of the AT-ST actions reduces its utility considerably.