It's been a long day of Armada, and while my brain is soup, half of that soup will be spoiled by tomorrow morning so if I want to get out all my thoughts, I gotta do it now.
First off, I gotta say that at 32 people the field in So Cal was unbelievably competitive. The scores were tight, the fleets were diverse, and I am SO fortunate to live in area where Armada is flourishing, and we have 5 stores within 30 minutes with populous Armada groups, and we had a fair number of out of towners as well. To those who came to breakfast, I am so glad that we could get together and get to know each other better. The Armada community is at it's best when it's reaching out and bringing new people into the family.
Going into the regional I had two fleets, one was a Raddus MC30, Profundity, Hammerhead list not entirely dissimilar to the list JJ used in the vassal WC. I really like the list, and MC75 in particular, and was having good results with it, but it ran on the ragged edge and I wasn't sure I had enough mastery of it to take it to a tournament with success. On the other hand I my Motti Combat Air Patrol. This is the fleet I am using in the WC. It's a fleet that looks like confused garbage, but wins games. Morna, Maarek, and Jendon dump out damage, Motti Demo with ET and Tua/ECM is hard hard hard to kill, and without being over encumbered the 71pt quasar is a prime trade up ship. In 2 of my 4 games today I didn't lose a ship. One of those was a 10/1 tabling. But it was the very definition of a wave 6 fleet. It has dumb flotilla spam, relay, and a beefy squad compliment. But I wasn't playing wave 6 any more. I was very confident in a wave 6 environment, but wave 7 was so new I just didn't know what to even expect.
I was torn on which to run. I wanted to use Raddus at the tournament, but everyone told me that not using the fleet I had practiced and was confident with was a mistake. @MandalorianMoose told me I would regret taking an insufficiently tested fleet. I was worried that my Motti fleet was too countered by wave 7, after getting dealt a painful 13 MOV loss by JJ in the WC. Plus I had just tabled the guy who ended up winning 5th or 6th overall with Raddus and liked the likely matchups for that fleet. End result was I went with Motti, and as I suspected, the fleet is horribly outclassed in wave 7.
First round-
Played against Graham, a guy who I had NOT played yet, but I had connected with the week prior. This was his first tournament, and his was the list I figured I would see a lot of all day - light squads, big ship. He had a Dodonna MC75 with Garel's Honor, External Racks, and Ordnance Experts, mc30 admonition with H9 and Walex, and a couple flotillas. Tycho, Shara, and 2 VCX's for the squads. We had the same bid and I won the toss and took first player. I deployed pretty conservative, and Graham deployed at an angle to intercept. Our fleets started to move together, but then suddenly he determined that I was about to inflict heavy losses on him, so he turned and ran. With the MC75 out of reach, Admonition being admo, and the hammerhead in profundity I killed the squads and the game ended with a 6/5 for me as I chased him to the board edge.
Second Round-
Second example of the fleet I figured I would face all day, squadronless ISD, Demo, 3x Gozanti. He had bid by 1pt, and chose first player. We played my Nav Hazards, I outdeployed him, so I dropped my squad ball middle table and waited for all his ships to get placed. Then I counter deployed him with Quasar and Demo, Demo going wide and quasar going near. His ships were moving slow to help make up the deploymet advantage, but he lost it when he kept them slow turn 1. It let my squadrons get real far out in front of my ships and start bombing. Turn 2 Morna/Maarek/Jendon (MMJ) killed a raider by themselves. Turn 3 MMJ killed another Raider and injued a GR75. Turn 4 I killed a Gozanti and Started on Demo. Turn 5 I kill Demo, Turn 6 I killed the ISD. My Demo had 1 hull damage on him and mauler had taken 1 as well. Highlight of the game was playing Nav Hazards to move a rock underneath the speed 1 ISD. It drew comms net, went to 0, and Demo unloaded two turns into it. This game made me feel bad. It was an example of everything wrong with this list. Final score was 415-0. He took 1 shot, and did 1 hull to Demo.
Third Round-
At this point I am doing pretty well sitting in fifth place over all. Honestly, I was starting to think maybe everyone was right and I would be fine with Motti. Then I got matched up against Sloane. Now, not to sound arrogant, but this fleet is more than adequate to beat Sloane. I've done it MANY times. I'm probably..... 5 wins and 1 loss with this fleet against sloane. I was pretty confident going into this round that I could 7 or 8 out of this match. But this Sloane was updated for wave 7 with Strategic Advisor. Because of that, he effectively had 6 activations (ISD Avenger, 4 Gozanti) so if I gave him first he would first last, if I took first he would have 2 activations after me. Either way was bad. I picked first figuring I could draw the alpha on a ship, which is my normal way of dealing with Sloane. However, in this one, at the start of the game my opponent dropped his ISD to 0 and essentially said he was going to take the 6/5 0 mov second player win. To try and avoid that, since we were playing superior positions, first I dangled the rear of a Gozanti trying to get him to alpha it, then the rear of the quasar, then another gozanti rear. Turn 5 he chases a Gozanti, but by then it was too late. I ran it off the board edge to prevent him from farming it for Superior Positions. I couldn't make up points without making it worse, so I took the 5. This was incredibly frustrating as we had just played 6 rounds of Armada without shooting each other. That sucks ***. I get sometimes at a tournament it can be a thing, but this was my second game of runaway don't fight in a single tournament. With a 5pt loss I had officially lost a shot at the overall win, as the top table was two guys who traveled together so it would go 6/5 to keep anyone from being able to displace one of them. However I could still get top 4, I figured, with an 8 or better. Optimistically, I mused that with my Sloane matchup out of the way, I was bound to play a fleet that could put me within striking distance. So I went into the next round excited that 8pts really hasn't been an issue for my fleet (in wave 6). I felt confident that after 2 boring no shooting run away games I was going to get a decent game.
Fourth Round-
But I was wrong. I drew another Wave 7 Sloane. ZZZ This time it was a truly wave 7 take on the admiral not just an improved wave 6 fleet. It had another Avenger ISD with 2 gozantis and Pryce with a 27(?) pt bid for first. The same squad heavy matchup, twice in a row had me seriously sad. Soon as I heard my matchup I knew my tournament was done cause I wasn't about to fight a third run away game. But I knew I was AGAIN faced with the decision to charge into destruction, or run away for a 6/5. In hindsight, a 6 here would put me 7th overall, getting me dice which I would have been happy with. But I was ******* tired, and ******* tired of not playing armada during a full day of Armada games, so I decided to go for broke. My opponent set Pryce to turn 3, so I figured I would surprise him by driving the quasar right into his grill and alpha-ing him turn 2 when I could essentially last then kinda first him. I moved the quasar into position, and I saw his eyes go wide when he realized what was about to happen. Unforunately, by this point my brain was incredibly tired, and I made an unbelievably foolish mistake. Activating squads end of turn 1 I said to myself that in order to alpha turn 2 I needed them in position by turn 2. But that is wrong, to alpha turn 2 I need them in position by turn 1. I DO NOT know how this wire got crossed in my brain. It does not make any sense, and I think this is the potentially the worst error I've made in a tournament since I was brand spanking new. But I wasn't into the matchup, and I zoned out. So I messed up and deployed my squads too conservative at the end of round 1 so they couldn't reach anything the next turn when I was supposed to be alpha-ing. At that point, I was at cross purpose. My quasar was already committed, per my plan, and my squads were out of position. The moment the turn counter changed and I looked at the board, then at the 2 on the turn counter, then back at the board I realized what I just did and resolved that this was the end of my tournament and I would just go down swinging. Squads died, we bled each others screen, and he killed the quasar for an 8pt win against me. II was right, 8pts was good enough for 3rd. I played very poorly, but he didn't particularly play his squads well either. It was just ineffient enough that I kept a flicker of hope that if I could just tank that double alpha I could pull something out of this one, but last first with sloane just wears you down too much, by turn 4 when I activated they couldn't trade back fast enough. Since I only got 3 points out of this one, I dropped from 5th all the way to 13th. Don't regret going for it, a game of Armada you fight and lose is better than dice any day of the week.
Overall, the wave 7 meta is a conundrum. In some sense, it is certainly a shake up. Big ships are great again- kinda. Large ships with light squads were there, but they eluded me in the matchups overall and squadrons again rose to the top. I myself brought a wave 6 knife to a wave 7 squad fight. And it is clear at the end of the day, the issues of wave 7 are still here to stay. The top fleets had all the jank. Flotillas, relay, and now buffed even MORE by cards like Strategic Adviser and Bail/Pryce. Top 3 were all max squads and at least 2 of the 3 had Pryce or Bail and I think all three did. I can wonder how things would have turned out if I brought Raddus, but the reality is it didn't have a great answer for a squad fleet either. If you take 134 pts in squads, the games where you match against other max squad players end in 6/5 or 7/4 and are either mutually bloody or boring games of armada. If you don't end up against a squad player, either they run for 6/5 and another boring game of armada or or you table them. In my case, I could have gotten 7th overall on 3 runaways and 1 table. I decided to go for broke and shoot for range templates knowing it wasn't favorable after my error, and it didn't pan out.
I am interested to see where the wave 7 meta goes from here. Our area in So Cal is insanely competitive, so this is only the beginning and I know fleets will continue to change and evolve. Thanks to everyone I got to hang out with, everyone who came to breakfast, and all my opponents.