Last night something amazing happened: My Sunny Bounder got a 5th hit with Heavy Laser Cannon not once, not twice, but three rounds in a row.

These were not natural rolls. I had a target lock and had to spend it each time to reroll one or two dice that were not blanks or focuses.

I'm trying to calculate the odds of this happening, and I came to the conclusion that each HLC shot with lock has approximately a 20.6% chance of having 4 hits after reroll (thus adding a 5th hit). Therefore I had just under a 1% chance (0.87%) of getting that 3x in a row. That's on the order of the chance to draw Major Explosion, roll a hit, and draw a Direct Hit (which I've seen maybe 3 times -- I think it's about a 0.5% chance to get it in a fresh damage deck).

Is my calculation correct, or have I done something wrong?

This is how I did my calculations (google doc -- anyone with link can view). My approach may be nonsense to someone with better experience with probability (mine is sparse). If I'm wrong, I'd love an explanation so I can do this right in the future!

Edit: Looks like the odds of a 5-hit shot are 20.68% for HLC Sunny with a lock, and 44.30% for HLC Sunny with a lock + focus.

Best pilot in the game...

7 minutes ago, kris40k said:

Best pilot in the game...

Not sure if you’re joking but she kinda is. Every time her ability triggers it feels like cause for celebration.

Sunny is awesome!! I did try it with Harpoons and HLC but it was bit too glassy, so I almost always do it light scyk tittle and pay 12p where it is at best.

http://xwingcalculator.x10host.com/diceuilm.html

Somewhere under 1 in 5 chance of all hits with just a target lock. Probably more like 1 in 10 because those rerolls can come up crits which don't get changed back to hits.

Well, this is all very nice, but Sunny does not trigger after the use of a TL, only after the original natural roll (roll and rerool are not the same, see latest FAQ on sunny).

[Edit] No clue why I thought that. I remembered it so clearly though

40 minutes ago, NilsTillander said:

Well, this is all very nice, but Sunny does not trigger after the use of a TL, only after the original natural roll (roll and rerool are not the same, see latest FAQ on sunny).

Sure she does. Her card text specifically mentions both rolls and rerolls.

Quote

Once per round, after you roll or reroll dice, if you have the same result on each of your dice, you may add 1 matching result.

From the FAQ:

Sunny Bounder

Sunny Bounder's ability can trigger after rerolling any number of dice, including 0 dice. For example, if an effect allowed Sunny to reroll any number of dice (such as spending a target lock) and 0 dice were rerolled, Sunny may add 1 matching result. Sunny Bounder's ability triggers before the effect of Heavy Laser Cannon resolves.

2 hours ago, NilsTillander said:

Well, this is all very nice, but Sunny does not trigger after the use of a TL, only after the original natural roll (roll and rerool are not the same, see latest FAQ on sunny).

Smugly incorrect. Delicious.

Cool thing that happened in a tournament, 12 point sunny gets attacked by the Ghost at range 1; 5 hits. She rolls 3 natural evades, so 1 extra evade and I'm like: "ok, I lost 1 shield".

Best... moment... ever!

2 minutes ago, dotswarlock said:

Cool thing that happened in a tournament, 12 point sunny gets attacked by the Ghost at range 1; 5 hits. She rolls 3 natural evades, so 1 extra evade and I'm like: "ok, I lost 1 shield".

Best... moment... ever!

Nice... only defensive Sunny rolls I've had were 3 blanks (twice) and 3 focus results (when I didn't have a focus token.)

Now offensively, I've been landing a lot of extra hits!

27 minutes ago, dotswarlock said:

Cool thing that happened in a tournament, 12 point sunny gets attacked by the Ghost at range 1; 5 hits. She rolls 3 natural evades, so 1 extra evade and I'm like: "ok, I lost 1 shield".

Best... moment... ever!

I’ve had something similar happen! I was facing a RAC/Whisper list, Torkil drops RAC to PS 0.... Sunny comes up, range 1, rolls 3 hits, adds a 4th, PS-kills RAC.

Sunny + Linked Battery = The most fun like, EVAR

I actually have a pet name for Sunny, I call her "Cheerleader" not only because she sounds like one, but she plays like one. She supports your whole squad with joyful abandon.

I even have a guy doing a custom card of her just for me. Because I'm THAT guy.

1 hour ago, Innese said:

I’ve had something similar happen! I was facing a RAC/Whisper list, Torkil drops RAC to PS 0.... Sunny comes up, range 1, rolls 3 hits, adds a 4th, PS-kills RAC.

Beautiful.

1 hour ago, Innese said:

I’ve had something similar happen! I was facing a RAC/Whisper list, Torkil drops RAC to PS 0.... Sunny comes up, range 1, rolls 3 hits, adds a 4th, PS-kills RAC.

That has to be the greatest moment in X-Wing history for more reasons than I can quantify.

I'm guessing Sunny's ability DOES NOT trigger after modifying dice though, right?

2 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

I'm guessing Sunny's ability DOES NOT trigger after modifying dice though, right?

If the modification is rerolling, then yes.

3 minutes ago, Innese said:

If the modification is rerolling, then yes.

But not spending a focus token, right?

2 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

But not spending a focus token, right?

No, Sunny requires a roll/reroll.

Now, I could roll a hit/focus, use a token to make it hit/hit, then spend a Target Lock to reroll 0. I’ve rerolled and all my results match, I add a hit.

2 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

But not spending a focus token, right?

Not directly, but say you roll 3 dice, get a hit and 2 focus. You could spend a focus token to change those results to hits, now you have 3 hits.. this does NOT trigger Sunny. But if you then spend a TL to reroll, and choose to reroll 0 dice, now her ability does trigger, as immediately after the reroll all the dice match.

9 minutes ago, xbeaker said:

Not directly, but say you roll 3 dice, get a hit and 2 focus. You could spend a focus token to change those results to hits, now you have 3 hits.. this does NOT trigger Sunny. But if you then spend a TL to reroll, and choose to reroll 0 dice, now her ability does trigger, as immediately after the reroll all the dice match.

Hmmmmmm..... do you think that same scenario would work out with Linked Batteries? Can you declare you are using linking batteries and then simply not reroll anything?

23 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

I'm guessing Sunny's ability DOES NOT trigger after modifying dice though, right?

FAQ says she triggers before HLCs. I don't know specifically what you're getting at, but lemme give you a fr'instance:

Sunny Bounder enthusiastically fires a r1 shot. Hit, Focus, Miss. But wait! Sunny enthusiastically uses a focus! Hit, Hit, Miss. But wait! Sunny enthusiastically utilizes her Linked Battery to reroll 1 die, and gets a Hit! Sunny Bounder has enthusiastically rerolled into Hit, Hit, Hit: as a reward, add a matching Hit!

Boundless Enthusiasm!

2 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

Hmmmmmm..... do you think that same scenario would work out with Linked Batteries? Can you declare you are using linking batteries and then simply not reroll anything?

No, as Linked Batteries says “you may reroll 1 attack die” rather than “you may reroll -up to- 1 attack die.”

8 minutes ago, Boba Rick said:

Hmmmmmm..... do you think that same scenario would work out with Linked Batteries? Can you declare you are using linking batteries and then simply not reroll anything?

Soft wording again, FFG, but as it says "...reroll 1 attack die", as opposed to "...reroll up to one attack die," I'd hazard that the Linked Battery cannot reroll zero.

2 minutes ago, E Chu Ta said:

Soft wording again, FFG, but as it says "...reroll 1 attack die", as opposed to "...reroll up to one attack die," I'd hazard that the Linked Battery cannot reroll zero.

Makes sense, this is one of the very narrow drawbacks of a passive modification - you aren't technically spending anything so you aren't actually doing anything to trigger Sunny.