TLT's issue isn't its raw power. The raw power of it is reasonable at 6 points. It would also be reasonable at 7 points.

TLT just has such weird mechanics that it interacts with more and more cards and turret-carriers to go way beyond its base functionality.

As an analogy, consider Push the Limit. Push the Limit is a reasonable card at 3 points. But on certain ships, it is worth far more than 3 points, and with certain slots it can be worth far more than 3 points (Advanced Sensors), and on one ship in particular it's so good that the ship was always basically a 30-point ship.

TLT started with that sort of synergy (Miranda), but as the number of pilots and upgrades have exploded, more and more of them have emerged, and will continue to emerge, and some of those are going to get downright abusive.

Basically, TLT is complicated, and as it interacts with an increasingly complicated game, things are getting ugly.

I don't know that nerfing TLT is the answer to this. (In fact, I'm pretty sure it isn't.) But I do know that it is the easiest thing to see in the spinning gears and cogs of dominant lists, so I think it's almost certain that's what FFG will do.

1 hour ago, theBitterFig said:

Nym can get lucky behind a rock and roll double evades. Against an Accuracy Corrector Ghost? Lol, nope.

You might need to re-read accuracy corrector if you don't think double-evade protects against it.

Short answer...

TLT = Over-Powered for current XWing Miniatures game.

2 hours ago, FTS Gecko said:

When I first saw the upgrade, I immediately thought it would be a way to reliably chip health away from low agility, high mitigation targets. Looking at you, Fat Han with your Evade token and C-3P0. But it's proven to be equally effective against high agility, low health targets.

I think an important question is that "if TLT was removed, would the boogeymen it was designed to prevent come back?"

I mean, wouldn't Fat Han get ripped apart by the high amount of 4 and 5 die modified attacks we have running around today and all the newer stuff?

Does the game need TLT anymore?

If "no", would removing it be a QOL increase?

Maybe just change TLT into a single shot 3 dice turret upgrade, range 2-3 still, and no capped damage.

So essentially, let it turn a ship into a PWT. Would that be enough of a nerf?

The problem TLT presents, is that in what is much more a game of chance, it offers a guarantee.

A stackable guarantee. One you can have four of. One that, should you roll the dice well enough, will allow you four guaranteed damage on a single target.

That is why Twin Laser Turret is both the most used and most consistent turret, because it takes away the chance factor. Anything that takes the chance factor away will be powerful, but few guarantee something the way TLT does.

I feel like pointing out that a kitted out Ghost is somewhere in the points range of 70-75, given what most people are running. That's more than fat turrets ever cost, and it usually comes in at PS5. In other words, if the ship couldn't come close to beating your list on its lonesome the game wouldn't be balanced.

Also your TLT rolls can absolutely whiff, and then you're stuck because that was the only attack you had.

Quote

dice well enough

guaranteed damage

I don't think that means what you think it means. TLTs are far from reliable, so much so I often prefer to use my main guns when I can, because I find I often do more damage. Also four reliable damage from what amounts to your entire list is probably below par compared to what damage spike lists can dish out. The point of the Ghost is survival, not damage.

5 minutes ago, Captain Lackwit said:

The problem TLT presents, is that in what is much more a game of chance, it offers a guarantee.

A stackable guarantee. One you can have four of. One that, should you roll the dice well enough, will allow you four guaranteed damage on a single target.

That is why Twin Laser Turret is both the most used and most consistent turret, because it takes away the chance factor. Anything that takes the chance factor away will be powerful, but few guarantee something the way TLT does.

But it doesn't take the chance factor away. You are still rolling dice. You even said that yourself. And if you are rolling dice, there is _no_ guaranties. Heck, even with full mods, a shot can completely whiff. I've seen it happen. I've been on both ends of it.

There is such a thing as auto damage, but the TLT isn't part of that. I'm not arguing that it isn't strong, but this talk of guaranteed damage is factually wrong. It might have better odds than other attacks, but that doesn't mean it doesn't still rely on chance, nor that it doesn't pay a price.

2 hours ago, Jeff Wilder said:

TLT's issue isn't its raw power. The raw power of it is reasonable at 6 points. It would also be reasonable at 7 points.

TLT just has such weird mechanics that it interacts with more and more cards and turret-carriers to go way beyond its base functionality.

As an analogy, consider Push the Limit. Push the Limit is a reasonable card at 3 points. But on certain ships, it is worth far more than 3 points, and with certain slots it can be worth far more than 3 points (Advanced Sensors), and on one ship in particular it's so good that the ship was always basically a 30-point ship.

TLT started with that sort of synergy (Miranda), but as the number of pilots and upgrades have exploded, more and more of them have emerged, and will continue to emerge, and some of those are going to get downright abusive.

Basically, TLT is complicated, and as it interacts with an increasingly complicated game, things are getting ugly.

I don't know that nerfing TLT is the answer to this. (In fact, I'm pretty sure it isn't.) But I do know that it is the easiest thing to see in the spinning gears and cogs of dominant lists, so I think it's almost certain that's what FFG will do.

Out of reactions to like this apparently. TLT's complexity is probably one of the main problems, and changing it in a vacuum is unlikely to "fix" the game. There's likely another boogeyman hiding right behind Kanan/Fenn. ****, if there had been a few weeks with no genius/trajectory sim change, Kanan/Fenn still comes up on top unscathed.

16 minutes ago, DarkArk said:

Also your TLT rolls can absolutely whiff, and then you're stuck because that was the only attack you had.

"Can"? Sure. Will? Not with Maul/Ezra. TLT with Maul/Ezra is, to attack dice, what Autothrusters/Palpatine/Stealth Soontir is to defense dice. Can you just get utterly boned on a cosmic level? Yes, you "can." Will you? No.

The chance of a whiff with one TLT with Maul/Ezra is 1-in-(4^7) (1-in-16,384; or, if you're me, 50/50). Note that's "whiff," not just "miss." It's definitely possible to miss on a TLT, but if you haven't seen Maul/Ezra in action, I guarantee you're overestimating how often it misses.

I don't have the time to do the math, but the odds of fewer than two hits/crits on a TLT with Maul/Ezra is probably ... 1-in-15-ish?

To me the biggest issues with TLT is the odds are weighted towards the TLT, not the Defender. In the case of any ship currently in place auto-Thrusters or not, TLT has the advantage. As the TLT’s increase in number/frequency that gap opens up further. Low health high agility ships can fairly reliably be chewed up and spat out by TLT’s just due to the fact they are more often than not... unable to reliably keep up with the Damage dice coming at them. So inevitably they get picked off quickly. As the dice reduce yes you have more life but it gets eaten up faster because shields are stripped away sometime quickly by the TLT exposing a ship to ata is from other ships or TLT’s.

Example here, say 3 TLT Y wings against let’s say 3 Auto Thruster, Intercepters. Intercepters will get from 1- 3 attacks in a turn the Y wings will get 2-6 depending on range arc and other factors. Usually at least 1 TLT shot. Conceivably 1 Intercepter can be taken down a turn nd in 2 turns the game is over.

So lets go to this still 3 TLT Y wings, against a Decimator. Decimator gets 1 shot, the TLT’s again most likely 2-6. Meaning upwards of 6 damage a turn. At most the Decimator is doing 4 on a shot at range 1 and the Y wing not hitting an Evade.

So it is essentially the same as having an extra ship on the table shooting without having to risk or spend points for said extra ship. As long as you can protect the TLT itself.

So can TLT’s be beaten, absolutely anything CAN. However, odds are not in your favor of actually doing so as eventually the 2 for the price of 1 shots will wear down and take out more ships than they lose.

5 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

I don't have the time to do the math, but the odds of fewer than two hits/crits on a TLT with Maul/Ezra is probably ... 1-in-15-ish?

Roughly, within 1% -

60% chance of 3 hits

30% chance of 2 hits

10% chance of 1 hit

0% chance of 0 hits

15 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

"Can"? Sure. Will? Not with Maul/Ezra. TLT with Maul/Ezra is, to attack dice, what Autothrusters/Palpatine/Stealth Soontir is to defense dice. Can you just get utterly boned on a cosmic level? Yes, you "can." Will you? No.

The chance of a whiff with one TLT with Maul/Ezra is 1-in-(4^7) (1-in-16,384; or, if you're me, 50/50). Note that's "whiff," not just "miss." It's definitely possible to miss on a TLT, but if you haven't seen Maul/Ezra in action, I guarantee you're overestimating how often it misses.

I don't have the time to do the math, but the odds of fewer than two hits/crits on a TLT with Maul/Ezra is probably ... 1-in-15-ish?

Yes I am aware of how reliable the Ghost is with rerolls on its TLT. You're talking to one of the people who first game up with this archetype right after the Stealthepiede dropped. I also don't like Maul/Ezra, because it doesn't save you when your opponent hammers down on you. That Ghost has very little survivability compared to more focus-oriented crew. And you could also just drop the combo and take AC and get two hits guaranteed, but then I don't see people complaining about that.

And again, I'll say that four mostly reliable attacks for 75 points against targets range 2-3 is probably about right. It's what I'd cost a 4-die PWT at. Seriously, what are people running that it gets absolutely mauled by this list? Want a hint? Expertise Rey rips it to shreds. So do many four ship lists and lists with lots of independent action economy.

13 minutes ago, Ronu said:

Quote

To me the biggest issues with TLT is the odds are weighted towards the TLT, not the Defender. In the case of any ship currently in place auto-Thrusters or not, TLT has the advantages.

But that's always been true. Red dice are better than green dice, and that's how it should be.

8 minutes ago, Ronu said:

To me the biggest issues with TLT is the odds are weighted towards the TLT, not the Defender. In the case of any ship currently in place auto-Thrusters or not, TLT has the advantages.

But that's how it has always been between attack and defender. Look at the dice. Red dice has one more success result than green, and that one is a critical. Attackers have always had the advantage.

5 minutes ago, Makaze said:

0% chance of 0 hits

Care to show your math to support this claim?

1 minute ago, DarkArk said:

Yes I am aware of how reliable the Ghost is with rerolls on its TLT. You're talking to one of the people who first game up with this archetype right after the Stealthepiede dropped. I also don't like Maul/Ezra, because it doesn't save you when your opponent hammers down on you. That Ghost has very little survivability compared to more focus-oriented crew. And you could also just drop the combo and take AC and get two hits guaranteed, but then I don't see people complaining about that.

And again, I'll say that four mostly reliable attacks for 75 points against targets range 2-3 is probably about right. It's what I'd cost a 4-die PWT at. Seriously, what are people running that it gets absolutely mauled by this list? Want a hint? Expertise Rey rips it to shreds. So do many four ship lists and lists with lots of independent action economy.

Amazing. Everything you just said is wrong.

3 hours ago, Celestial Lizards said:

Fun to use and a challenge to play against. Just try to find ways to beat it. That's what makes squad building so much fun.

But we don't have time for rational thinking!

1 minute ago, Jeff Wilder said:

Amazing. Everything you just said is wrong.

While a fun come back, it isn't exactly useful without further explanation (such as Luke gave in both instances of him using the phrase). May I ask how you think @DarkArk's observations were wrong?

Just now, SabineKey said:

While a fun come back, it isn't exactly useful without further explanation (such as Luke gave in both instances of him using the phrase). May I ask how you think @DarkArk's observations were wrong?

You may ask.

@SabineKey and @DarkArk sadly my post posted before I finished my thought. Yes that is a point you both make, and yes they should otherwise games last forever. However it’s the way TLT ends up favoring itself that becomes problematic.

4 minutes ago, SabineKey said:

Care to show your math to support this claim?

Xwing dice calc spat out 0.00390625 when set to a 3 dice attack with 1 dice reroll and Ezra crew against a 0 agility ship. It's slightly higher than that since you can only Maul one shot but still < 1% averaged across both shots.

To break it down by hand -

2 blank sides out of 8 = .25

Chance of rolling 3 blanks = .25^3 = 0.015625

Chance of reroll also being a blank = 0.015625 * .25 = 0.00390625

(I showed the math literally two posts before Makaze posted his estimates. It's 1-in-(4^7) for a TLT, 1-in-(4^4) for one shot of a TLT.)

There is an easy fix. The issue is the weapon has no downside. On the second shot there should be a separate dice roll and if the attacker rolls a hit, then they must discard the TLT. Maybe take a damage. Something that adds a drawback to using the weapon.

Also the ghost fix should be you can fire two different weapons. So you can't use the TLT for what usually is 4 auto hits.

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Xwing dice calc spat out 0.00390625 when set to a 3 dice attack with 1 dice reroll and Ezra crew against a 0 agility ship. It's slightly higher than that since you can only Maul one shot but still < 1% averaged across both shots.

To break it down by hand -

2 blank sides out of 8 = .25

Chance of rolling 3 blanks = .25^3 = 0.015625

Chance of reroll also being a blank = 0.015625 * .25 = 0.00390625

Okay. With a better understanding of your perimeters, I better see your point. I still believe that calling 0.00390625 a 0% is misleading. It can still happen.

11 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

You may ask.

Will you answer?

8 minutes ago, Ronu said:

@SabineKey and @DarkArk sadly my post posted before I finished my thought. Yes that is a point you both make, and yes they should otherwise games last forever. However it’s the way TLT ends up favoring itself that becomes problematic.

Ah! I hate it when that happens. Thank you for clarifying.

I personally think some of its other limitations (range and damage ceiling) make up for that slant, but that is based more on personal taste.

2 minutes ago, SabineKey said:

Okay. With a better understanding of your perimeters, I better see your point. I still believe that calling 0.00390625 a 0% is misleading. It can still happen.

Hence why I specifically stated "within 1%"

11 minutes ago, Jeff Wilder said:

(I showed the math literally two posts before Makaze posted his estimates. It's 1-in-(4^7) for a TLT, 1-in-(4^4) for one shot of a TLT.)

I wanted him to support his claim that the chances of missing were 0%, as that is impossible. I've got no problem with people arguing that the odds are too good, but I do if they misstate facts to support their argument.