I just want to chime in that all the math in this thread is delightful. Keep it up!
I agree that activation padding in this game is a little stronger than in other naval strategy games, but I am not sure how to tweak it. I think this game has some really brilliant mechanics and I wouldn't change much. But I am occasionally bummed that I feel like I'm penalized for not taking a bunch of cheap flotillas to force my opponent to move their spookiest ships first.
I've played just about every naval strategy game ever made and SWA is super unique and a real treat to play. I am not sure if there's an easy solution. Maybe something as simple/mild as "flotillas don't count towards ships being alive for 'all my boats are ded' purposes?" Or something as simple as "whichever ship activated last in the previous turn cannot activate first in the current turn."