Ok im too tired to do JJs tonight. Ill do it tomorrow

I'm out of energy tonight. I have spent some time looking at Ovi's and Brobra's posts in an effort to divine why they were chosen for termination by the Imperials. My conclusion is that they were both fairly low on the radar. They gave no hint of their role and faction. However, Brobra was involved in the voting fiasco, and it's interesting to note that on the same night he was selected by the Imperials for termination, CNinja became the target of Ebon's scan. I don't think these are coincidental acts.

I also think that the Day 1 vote actually helped the town. I've learned from the games I've played and watched so far that Day 1 votes usually end up frying a townie. I think the next vote has to proceed with great care. We townies are getting closer to falling off the cliff here within the next couple of days. If we become absolutely certain we have identified one of the Imperial scum, by all means we should go ahead and vote. But, maybe not voting or another vote ending with a no lynch isn't such a bad idea if we're not unified in our scum identity opinions. Let's not lose 2 townies tomorrow when the day ends and the next night begins.

2 hours ago, Madaghmire said:

So I'm looking at just D1 and D2, for each person. In each case, I'm looking at it from a place where I am presupposing that the person I'm examining is scum, so as to understand why a scum player would do what they do. The more I have to stretch, the better for that person. After I post each of the fab 4, I'll post some other stuff I saw. Its going to take me a while, please don't respond looking for a response from me until I put all 4 down. Its going to take me a while, and I imagine I'll be breaking at points for dinner and such, but I intend to get it all down tonight.

I'm doing each case by case, although there is a degree of overlap. Especially regarding Toad and Ginkapo on D1. These are not being presented in any particular order.

TheToad's Wild Ride

This kicks off what I'm calling the "Freudian Slippery Slope" argument. The quote itself though, is something we are going to look more deeply when its Pod's turn to get raked over the coals.

All of this is pretty stupid D1 weak-sauce, which is something I state repeatedly in D1.

Raj, who is now a confirmed town source, disagrees. He thinks he's spotted a tell.

If Toad is scum, this is how to address this. Dismissive without being defensive.

Vis follows Raj. I'll be honest, I didn't see Toad doing what he's accused of here.

This is interesting. At the time, I certainly agreed with him. In fact I go on to cite this post as the reason for my own vote on Vis. But why give Gink a pass? Hold him to the same standard you would hold anyone else to. I mean, if he's pushing a weak argument, isn't that a scum tell? Its good enough to vote Visovics. Raj also gets the same pass, and he cites teaming up with Gink as "solid play".

Hypothesis: This whole Freudian nonsense was Gink capitalizing on a stupid argument he knew wouldn't go anywhere to create distance with scum-buddy Toad, who adapts quickly and runs with it. Raj gets the pass because given his similar style, a vote against him would draw suspicion as to his pass on Gink, plus his expressed willingness to work with Ginkapo makes him a possible future patsy for scum. Visovics however, as a weak follow vote, is an excellent target. For this to be valid, both Gink and Toad have to be scum. If either flops town, this is disproven. And should be dismissed from consideration immediately.

Toad is also online for the "Stuff the Ballot" Orgy of Stupidity on D1, but I'm not overly interested in discussing it because I think we've talked it to death. Could he have saved it by swapping a vote? Sure, but as I'll reiterate in Gink's case, I don't think you can attribute blame to any single individual regarding that mess. On to D2...

All of these are in reference to Ebon's outing of Rajam as a Padawan/Vig. I mean pilot. I mean holy **** man I think you're town but wtf were you thinking? Annnnnnyway, this could easily be opportunistic scum jumping on a town misplay, and they work well because in the moment they read very plausible.

Raj though, is not buying it.

Seriously, not buying it.

Here is Toad's response to Wiigti's Ebonesque "Do the scum have a nightkill?" theory. Clearly, he wants us to believe he's a town player pointing out a fallacy in the reasoning used to clear Wiig after Oni steps in and declares for everyone what we all should have already known from reading the intro-post. Nips certainly believed that interpretation, so if Toad flops scum we should look at the Slippy Nippy. My issue with that is that this reads to me like a frustrated scum player, something I said at the time. The intonation isn't one of "wait guys, I know what this looks like but maybe its a trap", it reads more like "Holy fuckery are you kidding me this ******* jacktard is going to get a pass for being a ******* moron? How many people get a free pass for being a ******* idiot today?! Not this time, motherfracker!"

And a final frack you to Raj, who had been pushing him the whole game. Actually diminishes from the Gink-Toad partner theory, imo, because I think he wouldn't just cite Gink if he was supporting a scum buddy's train.

I'm not really going to discuss the d3 stuff, because that's unfolding and can be discussed as it comes in, but the whole superfriends comment he makes in d3 bothers me. Just because some folks have a few orgies and play a little ookie cookie in the Hall of Justice does not make them "Superfriends"

Next up, Ginkapo Boloba.

You calling this segment TheToad’s wild ride made me smile

11 Players, 6 to Hammer:

@Visovics - (1) TheToad

@PodRacer - (1) Madaghmire

@Ginkapo - (2) EbonHawk, GhostofNobodyInParticular

The question has come up a couple of times in passing, but I haven't seen it answered yet:

Who was redirected on Night 1? Unless we got unlucky and it went on Brobafett (possible), the person who was redirected should know.

That is, who besides Ebon was redirectedon N1? If there are two redirects, we should've heard about the other on N1, because we know (assuming Ebon is telling the truth) there were two last night.

41 minutes ago, Ardaedhel said:

That is, who besides Ebon was redirectedon N1? If there are two redirects, we should've heard about the other on N1, because we know (assuming Ebon is telling the truth) there were two last night.

Either Broba or a pilot that ran possibly, or in a stretch if we believe it is not scum, could even have been one of them redirected to Ovi, but this one we would have lynched a killer by now

4 hours ago, Madaghmire said:

He's also been super quiet, which is not Pod's town MO.

This is the one for me. Not a single case out of him.

##vote pod

Okay, so what I've been working on is a relationship grid to track positive (protections) and negative (accusations) interations between players so I can look for trends. I'm not sure how valuable it is in and of itself, or if it's something I'd pursue in the future, but if nothing else it gave me a pretty good framework for going back and reviewing player interactions and countering my personal bias toward more heavily weighting recent information.

It's clear to me now that I won't get it finished in time to be useful for hammertime tomorrow though, what with this beer disappearing so fast, so I'm not going to bother cleaning the data up to provide it to everybody--I'll just share a couple of the quotes I saved off and point out what trends I'm seeing. Should be enough to validate, anyway. Some of these are obvious; some are probably useless.

I categorized defending someone, following their lead relatively early in a wagon, or otherwise supporting them in some meaningful way as a positive relation. A negative relation is voting to lynch, accusations, etc.

Pod, Vis, and Gink all show strong and consistent negative relations toward Ebon (duh).

Ebon showed negative relations toward Gink, JJs, and Pod (also duh).

Rajam showed a negative relation toward Toad .

Ebon and Mad showed a positive relation toward Toad (note this does not account for Mad's recent manifesto).

Inexplicably, nobody has really accused me of anything, despite my cumulative factual errors, absence during OpFuck, and starting the wagon on Raj. So I mean... go team, let's keep it that way, but it almost makes me suspicious. The worst I've been accused of is "weird arguments" and useless data, which... I mean, I can't really argue with that.

GoNips and WigTii have been super duper quiet in terms of substantial contribution. JJs too, according to my data, but in his defense 1) he was busy early on, and my data is biased a bit toward earlier events, and 2) he's generally a quiet player anyway from what I've seen. I don't know Wig enough to comment on his silence, but this is definitely uncharacteristic of Nips from the few games I've played with him.

Broba voted Vis and then died , and tried to rally votes to Vis during OpFuck. However, also worth noting is that if the hammer had fallen on time, he could very easily have been the deciding vote that lynched Ebon.

=========================================================

What I think is the most relevant out of this:

Ebon has thrown the most shade overall with his broad accusations against multiple people, but I think that's less telling than Pod's strongly-targeted accusations against Ebon . Yes, Pod voted Rajam, but that was largely meaningless as he was the last guy on a wagon that was already halfway off the cliff. Other than that, the only really committed contributions Pod has made have been accusations against Ebon, with virtually no grounds given.

- After OpFuck:

On 12/17/2017 at 3:26 PM, PodRacer said:

Man smells Gambit in the air Bruv

@EbonHawk

- On Mad starting a train on him (most interesting IMO, as he didn't even really defend himself, just deflected):

On 12/19/2017 at 10:43 AM, PodRacer said:

So you are onboard with accepting Ebons reads as gospel bruv?

- On switching his vote to Raj:

On 12/19/2017 at 1:45 PM, PodRacer said:

Mans gonna use a wisdom of the crowd tip and stay off Ebon for now, but this doesn't mean I trust him.

Worth noting that none of these actually really put Ebon in any danger, but it's a pretty good ruse if that's what it is.

So what information would we get out of lynching Pod? Not much, unfortunately. Ideally, we'd have some record of somebody supporting him to tie him to other scum if he were to flip scum, but he only person I have a good read on interacting with him--other that Mad's get-off-my-lawn-ing--is Ebon, negatively. Which... again, duh .

I want to go back through and look at others' engagement--and lack thereof--with him, because I suspect that will be telling, but not sure I'll have time before hammer.

As it is, it's bedtime for me. This post is probably also riddled with errors because sleep deprivation. Meh.

I should be around in the morning. Just in case, though, I'm feeling most confident in:

##vote @PodRacer

11 hours ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

In no scenario do you see Ebon as scum?

Of course there are scenarios where Ebon could be scum. But I find them less likely then other scenarios.

As I said, though, I am not sold on Gink, so if I find good evidence against somebody else, I may yet change my vote. Mad's thing pointed out interesting things about Toad and Gink, but as the main theory is them being together till proven otherwise, I shall keep my vote on Gink. I agree that Pod is not of much help, but I also think that of he and Gink, Gink is the greater threat if scum.

Ok, I'm done with cryptic messages @PodRacer , L-2, claim time, in actual english. Let's see if you can make at least 1 argument that does not lead nowhere and has substance in it.

##vote PodRacer

13 minutes ago, Visovics said:

Ok, I'm done with cryptic messages @PodRacer , L-2, claim time, in actual english. Let's see if you can make at least 1 argument that does not lead nowhere and has substance in it.

##vote PodRacer

He has. He has accused Ebon of being scum, and laid out his reasons, though they were largely unsubstantiated.

25 minutes ago, Visovics said:

Ok, I'm done with cryptic messages @PodRacer , L-2, claim time, in actual english. Let's see if you can make at least 1 argument that does not lead nowhere and has substance in it.

##vote PodRacer

11 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

He has. He has accused Ebon of being scum, and laid out his reasons, though they were largely unsubstantiated.

My point in bold

3 minutes ago, Visovics said:

My point in bold

Substantiated and containing substance are different. To be substantiated, his accusation must be supported by evidence. However, for a post to have substance, it must be more than random drivel. A post that contains an accusation contains substance, as it is not random drivel. However, the accusation itself may be unsubstantiated. Therefore, he has posted posts that contain unsubstantiated substance.

35 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Substantiated and containing substance are different. To be substantiated, his accusation must be supported by evidence. However, for a post to have substance, it must be more than random drivel. A post that contains an accusation contains substance, as it is not random drivel. However, the accusation itself may be unsubstantiated. Therefore, he has posted posts that contain unsubstantiated substance.

Then I meant wrong on my post, sorry. I need to stop making assumptions based on word similarity in english, I had thought that substantiated was the adjective for “with substance”...

Sorry peeps.

manz been a busy elf helping Santa n ting.

Mad. Your girl is a ucckers.

So it's hardly surprising scum would start wagoning who ever they could out here.

I understand why I'm up here, My only Read has been Ebon, and he's only 275% sure it's Me Gink and Jj.

275% without a single positive result, all based off tone reads. So of course the guy with the accent was gonna get it.

Is it any wonder?

So like I have always maintained following ebon would be a mistake, He's out here with his own agenda not a town one. I layer low because I didn't want to be on the receiving end of An ebon scum push. I thought Gink handled that very diplomatically!

I'm sorry I let you down town, just a super busy time of year for me, even it's likely I can't post much more before hammer.

I am the town Podowan, I haven't taken my shot yet with all the hacking going on.

I wasn't going to broadcast it, as I thought I might slip the net. But the scum PoE has caught up with me ( a sarcastic thanks to all the list writers out there) looking at you George!

Your move town. Hang me now or let them get me tonight.

Man blames himself and ting.

Scum is Ebon Mad Ninja or Ebon mad and Vis. If Gink is scum here he's playing it well, but I can't clear him either, some of the pieces still don't fit for me yet.

Sadly I got ta get back to work. I will not be able to give any big posts till later when I'm home, typing this on mobile has taken long enough.

hold tight.

5 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

This is the one for me. Not a single case out of him.

##vote pod

That is, as I've said, not true. Furthermore, he was silent but town a couple of times.

Given his recent claim, I am inclined to want him alive, to test his claim tonight.

41 minutes ago, PodRacer said:

Sorry peeps.

manz been a busy elf helping Santa n ting.

Mad. Your girl is a ucckers.

So it's hardly surprising scum would start wagoning who ever they could out here.

I understand why I'm up here, My only Read has been Ebon, and he's only 275% sure it's Me Gink and Jj.

275% without a single positive result, all based off tone reads. So of course the guy with the accent was gonna get it.

Is it any wonder?

So like I have always maintained following ebon would be a mistake, He's out here with his own agenda not a town one. I layer low because I didn't want to be on the receiving end of An ebon scum push. I thought Gink handled that very diplomatically!

I'm sorry I let you down town, just a super busy time of year for me, even it's likely I can't post much more before hammer.

I am the town Podowan, I haven't taken my shot yet with all the hacking going on.

I wasn't going to broadcast it, as I thought I might slip the net. But the scum PoE has caught up with me ( a sarcastic thanks to all the list writers out there) looking at you George!

Your move town. Hang me now or let them get me tonight.

Man blames himself and ting.

Scum is Ebon Mad Ninja or Ebon mad and Vis. If Gink is scum here he's playing it well, but I can't clear him either, some of the pieces still don't fit for me yet.

Sadly I got ta get back to work. I will not be able to give any big posts till later when I'm home, typing this on mobile has taken long enough.

hold tight.

Have you actually scanned anyone?

2 minutes ago, Madaghmire said:

Have you actually scanned anyone?

Having reread that sentence, does he perhaps mean Zealot?

Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Having reread that sentence, does he perhaps mean Zealot?

He doesn’t know his own role?

Just now, Madaghmire said:

He doesn’t know his own role?

Meh. 1) He could be lying and messed up 2) he could have misread 3) he could have forgotten 4) I could have made a mistake

I mean, Ebon bungled his read, so it's not like there is no precedence. . .

15 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Meh. 1) He could be lying and messed up 2) he could have misread 3) he could have forgotten 4) I could have made a mistake

I mean, Ebon bungled his read, so it's not like there is no precedence. . .

I guess...

I want to hear from Pod.

I want to know exactly what role you are. I want to know what you think it does. I want to know what your night actions have been. Because “I’m a padawan and I was afraid of being misdirected” makes no sense.

Okay... are we seriously about to let another person botch a claim?

Pod says he was too afraid to “take his shot”... as a Padawan... because he might get redirected

so N1 you chose not to investigate because you assumed there were hackers?

and even if redirected you know that your information is still valuable right?

##unvote

##votePod

Dud he just want to say Podawan?

No No, not claiming Zealot.

Im the Town Investigative hence why Iv been pushing Ebon Voted him Day one, after his blantant slip when talking to Ovi.

When I tried to Scan him N1 he was running. I let things unfold to see if he would reveal his buddies or if they would become clearer with time.

Last night I scanned Broba After his il informed lurk and Push. As he was 2 on my little train I had going. If I could go back I'd scan Mad, but too late now...

Was trying to be too clever, I should have seen Broba was just a patsy.