17 hours ago, Boba Rick said:

I know the idea of using the R3 Astromech is generally a bad idea for the following reasons:

1) This card is absolutely useless on a low pilot skill ship. By the time you get to shoot, everyone has already shot at you so what point would there be in getting an Evade token, unless you happen to have Comm Relay? If that's the case you are spending 5 points to acquire an Evade token maybe twice PLUS the opportunity cost of a better astromech and dishing out damage, which brings me to the other reason why this card is generally useless......

2) This card is absolutely useless because the point of the game is destroying the other guy's ships. Hello! McFly! You are here to blow the other guy up! Usually a high PS ship (see point 1) is there to deal damage, and amazingly enough not dealing damage is the complete opposite of dealing damage. On to the last point:

3) There are better astromechs out there. When this came out people looked at it, snorted, and watched as it waddled on over to the side of the room where all the other crappy astromechs hang out. This, over BB-8? R4-D6 was solid on Biggs and it was one point, along with some other 1 point astromechs which satisfied the need for Integrated Astromech.

So where am I going with this? I think that R3 can actually be okay on the Fenn Rau ShuttleBug.

I really must be wrong on this, so please enlighten me.

Here's why I'm considering this:

1) Reasons 1 and 2 do not apply to Rebel Rau. Fenn is a high pilot skill ship that can't deal out damage so cares.

2) Fenn needs to live but be cheap. You could throw Chewbacca on him for a guaranteed 2 more hit points, but that's four squad points + opportunity cost + some other astromech for probably about 5 points. I really think Fenn is going to draw a lot of aggro, and he's going to die first - so we need to keep him around a tad long for not a lot of points.

If you're trying to keep Fenn alive the first thing you do is put Wired on him.... and then what? Pulsed Ray Shield? If you do that you need Nien Nunb or R2 astromech to make it work. If it works you paid 3 points for 1 shield and telegraphed maneuver that your opponent will pounce on. Maybe I'm missing something there, honestly, but it just seems like you gain a shield only to let your opponent lick his chops and wipe you out next turn?

So the question is outside of Wired, what inexpensive options can you use to add just a touch more of defense to Fenn?

3) Out of all the astromechs, I think R3 **MAY** address Fenn's need more than the others. So, as far as I know, the contenders for the astromech slot on Fenn are the following:

- R2 Astromech: It's great for getting rid of stress, and that does need to be done every turn. But with having a rear arc the greens are "okay" for clearing stress for what Fenn is trying to do, just nerf someone.

- Flight-Assist Astromech: It's great for keeping people in arc and for turning around, but I think with a rear arc you're already okay.

- M9-G8: Hey, I have a great idea! Let's give our opponent ANOTHER reason to smash poor little Fenn off the board with a 3 point astromech that begs you to put a 3 point crew on it (Weapons Engineer). I don't know, maybe I'm off on that.

- Chopper: Those actions need to be for coordinating.

- R4-D6: It's okay.... but it's place really is with Integrated Astromech.

- BB-8: Same reason as Flight-Assist.

I think Fenn's greatest need is survivability at a cheap price and R3 might just help enough to be worth it.

Tell my why I'm wrong because this just doesn't feel right.

It looks like a good idea. You dont want to hit on your 1st attack with gunner. Might as well get an evade token wile missing. If you combine that evade with Lowrisk, you get a stressbug that super hard to take down. I like it.

19 hours ago, Reiver said:

You've got to roll an eye for it to do anything.

You've only got two dice to roll eyeballs with, and lady luck will ensure they both come up with something else the day you really needed it.

For two points? Tough sell. I think I'd rather flight astromech, so that way you can barrel roll or boost to force arc on your opponents so Fenn Rau's ability triggers, maintaining his threat level.

Then just bank a focus on defense.

For anyone considering this, you have a 25% chance to roll an eye on a red die (or even green).

You have a 75% chance of rolling something else. .75 x .75 = .57, meaning you have a 43% chance of rolling an eye with two dice.

If you get a second shot, you have a 69% chance (.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = .31 /// 100 - 31 = 69).

If you get a third shot, you have a 83% chance.

To be clear, every time you roll it's a 43% chance. However, if over the course of a game you roll three times, your overall odds of rolling an eye is 83%.

More numbers....

If the average attack against you is 3 dice with a focus against your 2 dice with Wired, you will take an average of 1.35 damage per attack. With 5 hit points Fenn should survive 3-4 shots (3.71 shots).

If Fenn gets shot twice a round, that means he dies in the second round of fire. However, if R3 is aboard, Fenn has a 69% chance of getting an eye so there is an above average chance that Fenn will have an evade for one of the two rounds of fire. If that happens, the expected damage of one of those attacks drops from 1.35 to .56.... and Fenn survives 5 shots and into the 3rd round of fire.

Of course this does not take a ton of others things into account like Fenn nerfing someone or Fenn lucking out and being in range 3 on the first volley of fire. It also doesn't take range one shots or missiles or bombs or whatever else into consideration. Just food for thought.

While we're on it, let's run the same thing but with everyone's favorite crew card that never gets used: Saboteur. Heck no, I mean Captain Rex.

Rex by himself has about a 75% chance of missing against 2 dice defense with a focus token. Shoot the hardest to hit guy is the strategy and you can pump those numbers up.

3 red dice with focus attacking Fenn with focus equals a damage expectancy of 1.07. So, that's the first attack, then Fenn relies on Wired for the second which is 1.35. Based upon the two shots per round theory Fenn should survive to the third round of fire.

If for some reason you want to run Wired, R3, and Rex let's see what happens, besides having spent 5 points:

1) Every turn, odds are you have a focus token.

2) You should be stressed.

3) Every other turn you should have an evade token from R3.

Okay, first round of fire: Fenn takes 1.07 + 1.35 = Fenn takes 2.42 damage.

Second round: Fenn has a focus and evade uses them separately for .47 + .1.07 = 1.54 damage. Fenn has taken 3.96 damage.

Third round: Fenn dies on the first or second shot.

Okay, time for another installment of crappy X-Wing math with Boba Rick.

In this episode of keeping Fenn alive we are looking at the Pulsed Ray Shield, Wired, and R2 astromech combo. We are still making all the broad and sweeping assumptions as well.

Okay, round one Fenn takes it on the chin with only the Wired card to defend him. Fenn takes 1.35 damage twice for 2.70 damage. Ouch! Fenn takes an ion token and regens a shield.

Fenn's HP: 5 - 2.7 + 1 = 3.30

Round two! = Fenn takes another 2.70 damage! Better regen!

Fenn's HP: 3.30 - 2.7 + 1 = 1.6

Round three! = Fenn dies on the second shot.

This is 1 point less than Rex + R3 and it leaves your crew slot open. Hence it's better.

Chewie!

Round One: Fenn goes from 5 hit points to 2.3!

Round Two: Fenn gets shot for 1.35 damage and discards the card for .35 damage, then regens a shield. He is at 1.95 damage. Then he gets shot again and is at again and drops to .25.

Round Three: Fenn keeps dying in round three.

NAKED FENN!

Naked Fenn with 2 unmodified green dice against 3 red dice with focus takes 1.53 damage every shot. Based on the above, he dies in the second round of fire, fourth shot.

Fenn with Wired, and nothing else, takes 1.35 per shot. That gets him to the second round, fourth shot.

So, based on my dumb math above getting Rex (2 points) Chewie (4), R3 (2), or Rex/R3 (4), PRS/R2 (3points) all yield the same result of getting Fenn to survive to the 5th or barely the 6th shot.

So, based upon that, in my personal opinion this is the Fenn I'm running with:

Fenn + R2 + Wired + Jan Ors for 24 points.

If it is clear the opponent is going to focus down on Fenn then he'll have to decide if he wants to not coordinate and instead give a evade to himself. If he does, based on the above he's got a decent chance to make it to round three all the while having a lot of flexibility.

My Squad:

I don't hate it, but I think @Dosiere is probably right that it's too inconsistent. If could be R3 triggered every time you attack, I could see it. You'll only have something like a 44% chance to trigger it on 2 dice (2/8 + 2/8 - 4/64), and that's when you even have a shot.

4 hours ago, Boba Rick said:

For anyone considering this, you have a 25% chance to roll an eye on a red die (or even green).

You have a 75% chance of rolling something else. .75 x .75 = .57, meaning you have a 43% chance of rolling an eye with two dice.

I think your math is wrong.

You have a 25% chance of rolling a focus. You are rolling 2 dice. 2x25% is 50% chance of rolling at least one focus.

8 hours ago, Thormind said:

It looks like a good idea. You dont want to hit on your 1st attack with gunner. Might as well get an evade token wile missing. If you combine that evade with Lowrisk, you get a stressbug that super hard to take down. I like it.

If you're using R3 Astromech, you can't take R3-A2.

18 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

Huh, does that really work? I did not know that R2 turns the ion white1 into a green maneuver?

Yeah that's why R2 is almost an auto include on Fenn for me, unless you're not running PRS.

2 hours ago, Sekac said:

I think your math is wrong.

You have a 25% chance of rolling a focus. You are rolling 2 dice. 2x25% is 50% chance of rolling at least one focus.

That's not you calculate dice odds. @Boba Rick was correct with his approach: you first calculate your odds of NOT getting your desired result, then subtract that from 1 to get the odds of your desired result. In our case, that's:

6 / 8 * 6 / 8 = 36 / 64 = 0.56

Thus the chance TO get a Focus = 1 - 0.56 = 0.44, or 44% chance.

On 12/14/2017 at 3:10 PM, Sekac said:

I think your math is wrong.

You have a 25% chance of rolling a focus. You are rolling 2 dice. 2x25% is 50% chance of rolling at least one focus.

On 12/14/2017 at 5:20 PM, DR4CO said:

That's not you calculate dice odds. @Boba Rick was correct with his approach: you first calculate your odds of NOT getting your desired result, then subtract that from 1 to get the odds of your desired result. In our case, that's:

6 / 8 * 6 / 8 = 36 / 64 = 0.56

Thus the chance TO get a Focus = 1 - 0.56 = 0.44, or 44% chance.

@DR4CO and @Boba Rick are correct. It might seem odd at first glance, but here's a trivial way to confirm the other line of thinking is dodgy: Sekac, by your math, rolling 4 dice is 4x25% = 100% chance of rolling at least one focus.

Phantoms and Soontir players can assure you that it is entirely possible to roll 4 dice and never see a focus.

Especially when they really needed it.

4 hours ago, Reiver said:

@DR4CO and @Boba Rick are correct. It might seem odd at first glance, but trivial way to confirm the other line of thinking is dodgy: Sekac, by your math, rolling 4 dice is 4x25% = 100% chance of rolling at least one focus.

Phantoms and Soontir players can assure you that it is entirely possible to roll 4 dice and never see a focus.

Especially when they really needed it.

Thanks.

4 green dice have a 69% of rolling one focus in case anyone was wondering.