Dice Math

By GroggyGolem, in Genesys

Posted at

Decided to do some test rolls of my own. Used a dice roller ( http://game2.ca/eote/?# ) and wrote down results. All tests were done assuming the character has both 5 in a characteristic and 5 the appropriate magic skill and is trying to roll against a Hard (3 purple) difficulty to succeed and activate 2 effects. Activating a single effect requires either 2 Advantage or 1 Triumph. I did 6 batches of 100 rolls. The first with no Boost, the second with 1 Boost and the third with 2 Boost.

The fourth, fifth and 6th batches were the same except I removed one of the difficulty dice, making it an Average (2 purple) check. I recently heard there was a talent in the game at tier 5 that can reduce the difficulty from a specific skill check so I wanted to see how that affected the probability.

In the first batch of rolls, 13/100 were successful with enough Advantage/Triumph to activate the effects. That's 5 Proficiency, 3 Difficulty.

In the second batch, 28/100 were successful. 5 Proficiency, 3 Difficulty, 1 Boost.

In the third, 43/100 were successful. 5 Proficiency, 3 Difficulty, 2 Boost.

In the fourth, 31/100 were successful. 5 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty.

In the fifth, 45/100 were successful. 5 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Boost.

In the sixth, 61/100 were successful. 5 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 2 Boost.

For the actual dice results, I'm putting it in a spoiler tag because it's a long post.

5 yellow 3 purple 100 rolls results to succeed & activate 2 additional effects

1 2S 3A
2 3S 4A *
3 3S 1Th
4 4S 3A
5 4S 4A *
6 4S 1Tr 1Th
7 3S 2A
8 2S 2A
9 3S 2A
10 4S 1Tr
11 5S 1A 3Tr *
12 4S 2A
13 3S 2A
14 4S 1Th
15 5S
16 2S 1Tr
17 2S 1A 1Tr
18 5S 1Th
19 2S 2A 1Tr *
20 5S 1Tr 1Th
21 2S 1A 1Tr
22 1S
23 1S 2A
24 6S 3Th
25 1S 1A
26 5A
27 3S 1Th
28 1A
29 4S 1A
30 5S
31 4S 1A
32 4S 1A
33 2S 4A *
34 7S 1Th
35 1F 5A
36 3S 3A
37 6S 1Tr
38 5S
39 2A 1Tr
40 4S
41 4S 1Tr 1Th
42 4S 2A 1Tr *
43 3S 1A 1Tr
44 3S 1Tr
45 6S 1Th
46 1F 5A 1Tr
47 4S 1Tr 2Th
48 4A 1Tr
49 2S 5A *
50 4S 1A
51 1F 8A
52 5S 2A
53 3S 1A
54 2S
55 5S
56 5A 1Tr
57 6A
58 1S 4A *
59 4A
60 1S
61 6S 1Tr 1Th
62 1S 2Th
63 1F 3A
64 1S 3A
65 1S 3A 1Tr *
66 1S 5A 1Tr *
67 3S 1A
68 2S 3A
69 2A 2Tr
70 3S 1A
71 3S 1Tr 1Th
72 1S 3A 1Tr *
73 3S 2A
74 2S 1A 1Tr
75 5S 1A 1Tr
76 1F 3A 1Tr
77 6S 1Th
78 2S 2A
79 2S
80 1F 1A
81 5S
82 4S 1A
83 3S 1A 1Tr
84 6S 1A
85 2A 1Tr
86 2S 2A
87 1S 2A 1Tr *
88 2S 1A
89 3S 3A
90 2S 1A 1Tr
91 1S 2Th
92 1S 1A 1Tr
93 2S 1A
94 6S 1Tr 2Th
95 4S 1Th
96 6S 1Th
97 1F 3A 1Tr
98 Wash
99 1S 4A *
100 3S 2A

13/100 met the requirements

5 yellow 1 blue 3 purple 100 rolls results to succeed & activate 2 additional effects

1 4S
2 6S 1Tr
3 6S 1Tr
4 1S 3A 1Tr *
5 3A 1Tr
6 1S 2Tr *
7 3S 5A 1Tr *
8 4S 4A *
9 2S 1A 1Tr
10 1F 5A
11 4S 1Tr 1Th
12 1S 3A 1Tr *
13 2S 2A 1Tr *
14 2S 5A *
15 5S 1Th
16 4S
17 4S 1Th
18 1S 5A *
19 3S 3A
20 6S 2A
21 1S 4A *
22 4S 3Th
23 6S
24 1F 4A 2Tr
25 1S 2A
26 6S 1A
27 1S 3A 1Tr *
28 3S 3A
29 4S 4A *
30 5S 1A 1Tr
31 4S
32 4S 1A 1Tr
33 1S 4A 1Tr *
34 4S 2A 1Tr *
35 5S 2Tr 1Th *
36 1S 1A
37 1S 3A
38 4S 6A *
39 4S
40 5S
41 4S 1A
42 2S 1A 1Tr
43 6S
44 4S 1A
45 1A 1Tr
46 4S 6A *
47 1F 7A
48 2S 1A
49 3S 2A
50 4S 2A
51 3S 2A
52 5S 2Th
53 1S 1A
54 3S 2A
55 3S 1Tr
56 2S 1A
57 1S 5A *
58 7S 1Th
59 6S 1A 1Tr
60 6S 1A
61 2S 6A *
62 3S 4A *
63 4S 1Th
64 1F 4A 1Tr
65 3S 1Tr 1Th
66 3S 1A 1Tr
67 2S 3A 1Tr *
68 1S 1A
69 5S 1A
70 3S
71 5S 3A
72 1S 1A
73 3S 5A *
74 1F 4A 1Tr
75 4S 1Tr
76 3S 1A 1Tr
77 5S 1Tr 1Th
78 4S 1A
79 1F 3A 1Tr
80 7S 2Th
81 2S
82 6S 2A
83 4S 3A
84 4A
85 4S 2A
86 2S 3A
87 2S 1A
88 2S 4A *
89 2S
90 3S 2A 2Tr *
91 1S 2A 1Tr *
92 1F 6A
93 3S 4A *
94 1S 2A
95 3S 4A 1Tr *
96 5S 1A
97 2S 3Th
98 4S 4A *
99 3S 4A *
100 1S 3A

28/100 met the requirements

5 yellow 2 blue 3 purple 100 rolls results to succeed & activate 2 additional effects

1 5S
2 2S 3A 1Tr *
3 3S 1A
4 2S 3A
5 4S 7A *
6 6S
7 3S 2Tr *
8 5S 2A 1Tr *
9 5S 3A
10 4S 2Th
11 1S 6A 1Tr *
12 6S 2A
13 3S 3A 2Tr *
14 3S 2A
15 2S 4A *
16 4S 3A
17 4S 3A
18 5S 2Th
19 6S
20 6S 1Tr 1Th
21 6A
22 3S 1A 1Tr
23 1S
24 2S 3A 1Tr *
25 4S 5A *
26 5S 5A *
27 3S 1A 2Tr *
28 5S 4A *
29 4S 4A *
30 5S 1Tr
31 2S 4A *
32 2S 3A
33 5S 3A 1Tr *
34 4S 2A
35 4S 4A *
36 3S 2A
37 5S 1Tr
38 4S 3A 1Tr *
39 2S 4A *
40 2S 2A 1Tr *
41 5S 2A
42 3S 4A 1Tr *
43 4S 1Tr 3Th
44 5S 6A *
45 3S 1A 1Tr
46 1S 6A *
47 5A
48 1S 4A *
49 1S 6A *
50 6S 5A *
51 5S 1Th
52 7S 1Th
53 5S 2A
54 4S 3A 1Tr *
55 4S 1A
56 4S 1A
57 7S 1A
58 5S
59 6S 1Th
60 7S
61 3S 1A
62 6S 1A
63 5S 1A 1Tr
64 2S 6A 1Tr *
65 6S 1A
66 5S 1A
67 1F 2A 1Tr
68 2S 1Th
69 2S 2A
70 2S 2A
71 4S 2A 1Tr *
72 3S 6A *
73 4S 2A 2Tr *
74 6S 3A
75 3S
76 3S 5A *
77 5S 2Tr *
78 1F 10A
79 4S 5A 1Tr *
80 5S 4A 1Tr *
81 4S
82 4S 3A
83 2S 2A
84 2S 6A 1Tr *
85 1S 4A *
86 4S 3A 1Tr *
87 1S 6A *
88 2S 3A 1Tr *
89 3S
90 5S 2A 1Tr *
91 4S 4A 1Tr *
92 3S 1A
93 1F 6A
94 4S 1Th
95 7S 1Tr
96 1S 6A *
97 1F 8A
98 4S 2A
99 4S 2Tr *
100 4S 3A

43/100 met the requirements

5 yellow 2 purple

1 3S 3A 1Tr *
2 3S 1A
3 1S 5A *
4 3S 1A
5 2S 5A *
6 1S 1A
7 7S 1Tr 2Th
8 4S 3A
9 5S
10 1S 2A
11 6S 1Th
12 4A
13 7S 1Th
14 2S 3A
15 1S 2A 1Tr *
16 4S 2Tr 1Th *
17 4S 1Tr
18 1F 7A
19 6S 1A
20 1F 5A
21 3S 1A 1Tr
22 3S 1Tr
23 2S 5A *
24 3S 2A
25 5S 1A 1Tr
26 3S 4A *
27 1S 4A *
28 2A 1Tr
29 4S 1A 1Tr
30 2S 2A
31 1S 4A *
32 1S 4A *
33 5S 3A
34 2S 4A *
35 4S 2A
36 1F 4A
37 4S 4A *
38 2S 2A
39 2S 4A *
40 2S
41 3S 1A
42 8S 1A
43 4S 5A *
44 4S 2A
45 3S 2A 1Tr *
46 3S 3A
47 3S 1Tr
48 4S 2A
49 2S 2A
50 5S 1A 1Tr
51 4S 1A 1Tr
52 2S 4A *
53 7S 1Tr
54 5S 1A
55 5S 1A
56 2S 1A 1Tr
57 3S 2A 1Tr *
58 3S 3A 1Tr *
59 1F 5A
60 1S 2A
61 2S 2A 1Tr *
62 2S 2A 2Tr *
63 4S 2A
64 4S 2A
65 3S 3A
66 8S 1A
67 3S 1A 1Tr
68 4S
69 1S 3A
70 3A
71 1F 4A 1Tr
72 3S 3A
73 2S 3A 2Tr *
74 3S 4A 1Tr *
75 6S 1A 1Tr
76 1S 3A
77 5S 1A
78 1S 2A
79 1S 3A
80 4S 1Tr
81 2S 5A *
82 3S 2A 2Tr *
83 3S 4A *
84 5S 2A 1Tr *
85 7A
86 2S 1A
87 3S 3A
88 3S 1A
89 2S 3A
90 2S 3A
91 4S 1Th
92 3S 4A *
93 1S 4A 1Tr *
94 4S 3A 1Tr *
95 1S 2A 1Tr *
96 1F 5A
97 5S 1A
98 1S 1A
99 6S 2Tr 1Th *
100 4S

31/100 met the requirements

5 yellow 2 purple 1 blue

1 1A 1Tr
2 3S 2A
3 5S 2A 1Tr *
4 4S 2A
5 2S 3A 1Tr *
6 1S 6A *
7 4S 2A
8 6S 2Tr 1Th *
9 5S 1A 2Tr *
10 4S 2A
11 2S 4A *
12 5S 4A *
13 2S 6A *
14 1S 4A *
15 2S 4A *
16 4S 1A
17 2S 2A
18 1S 1A 1Tr
19 4S 2A
20 2S 4A *
21 5S 5A *
22 5S 4A *
23 4S 1A 2Tr *
24 5S 2A
25 5S 1Tr
26 2S 2A
27 6S
28 4S 4A *
29 2S 2A 1Tr *
30 7S 1A
31 2S 1A 2Tr *
32 1S 7A *
33 5S 1Th
34 3S 4A *
35 3S 1Tr 1Th
36 3S 2A
37 3S 4A *
38 3S 4A *
39 1S 4A 2Tr *
40 5S 1Th
41 1S 5A *
42 4S 1Tr
43 5S 3A
44 4S 3A
45 1S 4A *
46 1S 6A 1Tr *
47 5S
48 3S 2A
49 7S 1Th
50 2S 1A 1Tr
51 5S 4A 1Tr *
52 4S 4A *
53 6S 1Tr
54 4S 1A
55 5S 1A
56 5S
57 1S 5A 1Tr *
58 3S 3A
59 3S 3A
60 7S 1A 2Tr *
61 5S 5A *
62 2S 7A 1Tr *
63 3S 3A
64 3S 1A 1Tr
65 2S 2A
66 4S 1Tr
67 5S 3A
68 5S 1Tr
69 5S 1Th
70 4S 6A 1Tr *
71 3S 6A *
72 1S 1Tr
73 3S 1A
74 4S 1A 1Tr
75 1A 1Tr
76 4A
77 4S 4A 1Tr *
78 6S 1A
79 4S 1A
80 3S 2A 1Tr *
81 1S 3A
82 5S 1A 1Tr
83 3S 6A *
84 5S 2A 1Tr *
85 2S 6A *
86 4S
87 7A
88 3S 2A
89 2S 3A
90 1F 6A
91 5S 2A 1Tr *
92 4S 3A
93 3S 2A 1Tr *
94 3S 5A *
95 2S 6A *
96 4S 2Tr 1Th *
97 3S 1A
98 1S 3A 1Tr *
99 7S
100 3S 4A *

45/100 met the requirements

5 yellow 2 purple 2 blue

1 4S 7A *
2 5S 4A 1Tr *
3 6S 1A
4 2S 4A *
5 5S 2Tr 1Th *
6 8S 2A
7 5S 3A 1Tr *
8 6S 3A 2Tr *
9 1S 4A 2Tr *
10 8A
11 5S 3A 2Tr *
12 5S 1A
13 1S 7A 1Tr *
14 3S 4A 1Tr *
15 5S 2A 1Tr *
16 5S 3A 1Tr *
17 8S
18 5S 4A *
19 3S 4A 1Tr *
20 6S 1Tr 1Th
21 2S 4A 1Tr *
22 4S 1A 1Tr
23 1S 4A *
24 4S 1A 1Tr
25 3S 1Tr
26 7S 1A 1Tr
27 7S 3A
28 6S 2A
29 3S 2A 3Tr *
30 5S 2A 2Tr *
31 4S 2A
32 3S 4A *
33 6S 2A 1Tr *
34 2S 3A 1Tr *
35 2S 5A *
36 4S 1Th
37 3S 4A *
38 4S 3A 2Tr *
39 2S 5A *
40 5S 1A
41 2S 2A 1Tr *
42 2S 4A *
43 4S 6A *
44 5S 5A *
45 2S 5A *
46 5S 2A 1Tr *
47 5S 4A 1Tr *
48 2S 2A
49 4S 3A
50 4S 3A 1Tr *
51 5S 5A *
52 6S 1A 1Tr
53 4S 1A 1Tr
54 5S 1Tr 1Th
55 6S 1Th
56 7S 4A *
57 1S 4A 1Tr *
58 5S 4A *
59 5S 2A 1Tr *
60 5S 3A
61 4S 1Th
62 1S 5A 1Tr *
63 5S 4A *
64 1S 4A 1Tr *
65 4S 3A
66 4S 3A
67 1S 2A
68 5S 5A 1Tr *
69 8S
70 2S 2A 1Tr *
71 4S 5A 1Tr *
72 3S 4A 1Tr *
73 3S 4A 1Tr *
74 4S 6A *
75 5S 3A
76 5S 1A
77 4S 4A *
78 4S 3A
79 3S 1A 1Tr
80 3S 6A 2Tr *
81 4S 4A *
82 3S 5A 1Tr *
83 5S 1Tr
84 3S 6A 2Tr *
85 4S 6A *
86 1F 10A
87 1F 4A
88 3S 5A *
89 6S 4A 1Tr *
90 3S 3A 1Tr *
91 1S 9A *
92 6S
93 5S 3A 1Tr *
94 6S 3A
95 4A
96 2S 5A *
97 4S 2A
98 4S 2A 1Tr *
99 4S 4A *
100 7S

61/100 met the requirements

Edited by GroggyGolem
Posted at

Assuming you start with 5 in your magic characteristic and 2 ranks in the appropriate skill, it will cost 60xp to get to 5 Proficiency and 175 for your first tier 5 talent. Totaling that up would be 235xp. If we go by the game's suggestion of 20xp per 3-5 hour session, it would take you 11.75 sessions to reach the results of the 6th batch of rolls. 12 Sessions isn't necessarily a whole lot but this is if you're focusing entirely on boosting this chance and you aren't putting your xp anywhere else.

If you're trying to spread out your xp to be more well-rounded, say starting at 4 in your magic characteristic and 0 ranks in that skill, you are looking at 175 + 75 + 75 = 325xp. That would take 16.25 sessions, rounded up to 17.

Does this seem like an appropriate progression rate? What are your thoughts?

Edited by GroggyGolem
Posted at
7 hours ago, GroggyGolem said:

Assuming you start with 5 in your magic characteristic and 2 ranks in the appropriate skill, it will cost 60xp to get to 5 Proficiency and 175 for your first tier 5 talent. Totaling that up would be 235xp. If we go by the game's suggestion of 20xp per 3-5 hour session, it would take you 11.75 sessions to reach the results of the 6th batch of rolls. 12 Sessions isn't necessarily a whole lot but this is if you're focusing entirely on boosting this chance and you aren't putting your xp anywhere else.

If you're trying to spread out your xp to be more well-rounded, say starting at 4 in your magic characteristic and 0 ranks in that skill, you are looking at 175 + 75 + 75 = 325xp. That would take 16.25 sessions, rounded up to 17.

Does this seem like an appropriate progression rate? What are your thoughts?

Sounds like a pretty appropriate progression to me. 17 sessions, assuming you game every two weeks (which is what my group has been doing for years with a variety of RPGs) is still less than a year of gaming. Being able to trigger two effects on a spell with better than 50/50 odds is really, really powerful in this system (depending on the effects you're trying to trigger). Blast and Burn or Empower and Blast could let your character clear out large groups of minions and rivals with relative ease compared to non-spellcasters. Not to mention as you're progressing, you'll still be able to use magic to hit rather consistently, even if you're only able to trigger one effect most of the time until you've hit your 17th session.

Posted at

For themselves, the numbers appear somewhat bleak. I do not mind unexperienced beginning chars to fail more often, when they pull a stunt. When they grow and gain implements and some magic related talents (maybe a terrinoth signature spell), success should come on a more regular base.

I tried a spell with the deadly effect on short range = 2 purple and used aim for an additional boost die. Intellect is 4 and magic(arcana) 2 so having 2 yellow and 2 green. and knowledge 3. So more or less its a starting char.

I rolled about 100 times and had around 70% of success meaning I crited the target and would deal a hit +30% on the crit table. Not that bad. As long as you don't apply too many effects with active qualities needing a ton of advantages.

The spell most often mentioned in this regard is fireball with the blast and fire effects. Fire does add the burn quality for ongoing damage. Though if you use the classical D&D fireball, it does not actually deal damage over time. Atually it would have rather have the blast and the empowered effects. They only need 2 advantages to trigger (dishing out damage to all things in a short area around the primary target instead of engaged to the primary target!), but yeah, it is 4 purple at short and even 5 purple at medium range. But then, if you have a magic ring with range, blast and empowered effects (2 x +1 and 1 x +2) a fireball would only cost difficulty 2 and 2 advantages(!) Opportunities over opportunities :)

EDIT: Tried the last example with a highly experienced char (magic and knowledge skill 5 and intellect 5) Ihave a living artillery incarnate succeding 90% of the time dishing out deadly area dmage obliterating whole minion groups and athe casual rival with one attack(!) Holy poodoo!

Edited by DarthDude
Posted at

I mean, there's this chart... for all the possibilities

anydice for the probabilities gives you:

{0, spell <1suc2adv:

1, spell >1suc2adv}

(5y 3p)

0,64.4780110183
1,35.5219889817

(5y 3p 1b)

0,52.1301758305
1,47.8698241695

(5y 3p 2b)

0,40.802129645
1,59.197870355

If you limit yourself to a more basic spell

(5y2p)

0,48.3275479286
1,51.6724520714

(5y2p1b)

0,36.0421901581
1,63.9578098419

By the time you get 5y hopefully you've got a magical implement that let's you cast a double augment with no difficulty increase then,

(5y1p1b)

0,20.4285421489
1,79.5714578511

Moral of the story, always aim, don't get too big for your britches.

....I should make a spell Calculator.

1512762368.jpg

Edited by SkyJedi
Posted at
1 hour ago, SkyJedi said:

1512762368.jpg

Nice! :)

It's even better to imagine the odds, when they are visually displayed like this.

Posted at

What page is the activation cost on? My players are arguing with me about it lol.

Posted at
8 minutes ago, TrainedMunkey said:

What page is the activation cost on? My players are arguing with me about it lol.

Nothing beats a healthy discussion :D

Posted at
53 minutes ago, TrainedMunkey said:

What page is the activation cost on? My players are arguing with me about it lol.

Not sure exactly which point they're arguing about.

If its Magic shouldn't have the extra cost of activation:
The charts all say "the attack gains the _______ quality" making no mention of running it any differently from a normal weapon quality anywhere in the text.
The rules for weapon qualities are on 86-89. Tell them to feel free to peruse :P .

If its "Burn/Blast/Ensnare/etc don't say it costs advantage to activate:
4th paragraph on page 86

Posted at
7 minutes ago, Doctor Xerox said:

Not sure exactly which point they're arguing about.

If its Magic shouldn't have the extra cost of activation:
The charts all say "the attack gains the _______ quality" making no mention of running it any differently from a normal weapon quality anywhere in the text.
The rules for weapon qualities are on 86-89. Tell them to feel free to peruse :P .

If its "Burn/Blast/Ensnare/etc don't say it costs advantage to activate:
4th paragraph on page 86

That was my take on it also. So crit and auto-fire would cost.

Not sure why they were included in original post. Both of these would be nice to have especially with empower, but hardly an every attack situation.

Posted at

I'm fine with the progression as is. Leaves room for items to be awarded that will increase lethality, and it factors in the positive ways in which everyone can contribute to everyone else's dice pool with their own dice pool results during an encounter. Seems to me an expectation to get to a high degree of a multi success roll with just a base dice pool and the Aim Maneuver doesn't allow for much of anything.

Posted at

My calculations are all wrong, for some reason I thought you needed 2adv to cast successfully. That makes all the offs wrong. I'll fix them at some point

Posted at
13 hours ago, Underachiever599 said:

Blast and Burn or Empower and Blast could let your character clear out large groups of minions and rivals with relative ease compared to non-spellcasters.

Unless you tweak things to either add the implement damage bonus to Blast, or use double the Knowledge rating, Blast isn't going to be very effective at clearing groups. I'd suggest the former, since it doesn't vary as much as doubled Knowledge. These two suggestions are from the FAQ.

In D&D, wizards are control, so they're effective against groups of minions, but your Genesys world doesn't have to have them in the same role. The high end of direct damage for the Attack spell is better than the other options, so it might be better to let the archer take out the minions, with his reliable bow that can eliminate one every shot, while the mage goes against the heavy opponent, missing more often, but landing more devastating hits. The crossbow essentially has a base damage of 9, a halberd/great axe ends up at 11, while the Empowered attack spell from a staff ends up at 14 (though it costs 2 strain).

Edit: In any case, I wouldn't tweak the rules unless you're having a problem with them.

Edited by ubik2
Posted at
6 hours ago, TrainedMunkey said:

That was my take on it also. So crit and auto-fire would cost.

If it helps, this was also clarified in the FAQ.