Sunny Bounder math question

By JaceDK, in X-Wing

Quick question for the math savvy:

Say you have Sunny Bounder shooting 2 red dice with a focus and TL. Dice come up [focus] [blank].

Do you spend the focus before or after rerolling the blank? You have a higher chance of activating her ability if you spend it before, but risk loosing a hit if you roll a focus.

What happens at range 1 with 3 dice?

23 minutes ago, JaceDK said:

Quick question for the math savvy:

Say you have Sunny Bounder shooting 2 red dice with a focus and TL. Dice come up [focus] [blank].

Do you spend the focus before or after rerolling the blank? You have a higher chance of activating her ability if you spend it before, but risk loosing a hit if you roll a focus.

What happens at range 1 with 3 dice?

Focus and then target lock:

4/8 chance of getting 1 hit.

1/8 chance of getting 1 hit and a crit

3/8 chance of getting 3 hits

Average 1.875 hit/crit

Target lock and then focus:

2/8 chance of getting 1 hit (but you keep the focus for defense)

1/8 chance of getting 1 hit and a crit

2/8 chance of getting 3 hits (roll a focus, use ability and spend focus)

2/8 chance of getting 2 hits.

Average 1.75 hit/crit

So really, not a huge difference (hopefully I did not make a math mistake somewhere)

Nope, fcus then TL is the slightly higher return choice, but also the higher cost choice (because you can't choose to retain your focus if the reroll doesn't work, which you probably would if it came up blank again). SO at heart it's a variance question - do you want to risk more to potentially get more at the cost of coming out with less if it doesn't work out?

4 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

Nope, fcus then TL is the slightly higher return choice, but also the higher cost choice (because you can't choose to retain your focus if the reroll doesn't work, which you probably would if it came up blank again). SO at heart it's a variance question - do you want to risk more to potentially get more at the cost of coming out with less if it doesn't work out?

That's less of a concern for sunny than most named pilots. At PS1, she's probably shooting last anyway.

Further, after using Sunny a bit, it's rare you have both focus and target lock without outside help.

11 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

Further, after using Sunny a bit, it's rare you have both focus and target lock without outside help.

It’s very likely with the linked battery version, shown in the thread linked in the second post.

Many thanks, everyone.

6 minutes ago, JaceDK said:

It’s very likely with the linked battery version, shown in the thread linked in the second post.

Many thanks, everyone.

Technically what I said was true - linked battery is not a TL. That said, you are correct linked battery seems pretty good.

Edited by LagJanson
1 hour ago, dotswarlock said:

Focus and then target lock:

4/8 chance of getting 1 hit.

1/8 chance of getting 1 hit and a crit

3/8 chance of getting 3 hits

Average 1.875 hit/crit

Target lock and then focus:

2/8 chance of getting 1 hit (but you keep the focus for defense)

1/8 chance of getting 1 hit and a crit

2/8 chance of getting 3 hits (roll a focus, use ability and spend focus)

2/8 chance of getting 2 hits.

Average 1.75 hit/crit

So really, not a huge difference (hopefully I did not make a math mistake somewhere)

Your reroll first version only adds up to 7/8. Should be:

2/8 chance at 1 hit (you reroll into another blank and spend focus)
1/8 chance at 1 hit, 1 crit
2/8 chance at 3 hits (reroll focus, use ability, spend focus)
3/8 chance at 2 hits (reroll hit, spend focus)

You almost never need to save your focus for defense when you're shooting with sunny becuase there's not that many PS1 pilots in the meta right now. That's actually a higher average damage output than spending the focus first (average of 2 damage, not counting results from crits). The focus first version has higher odds of doing 3 damage, but also higher odds of only doing 1 damage, since the only way to do exactly 2 is to roll a crit.

Basically it comes down to what you're shooitng at. Are you shooting a high agility target? Focus first for the better odds of getting 3 hits. Shooting something with 3 health that you really need dead if possible, go for focus first. Shooting sometihng with 2 health and 0 agility? Reroll first. Etc.

Edited by VanderLegion

Off topic sorta but Sunny with the Suppressive Fire condition is hilarious. I only roll one die you say? Perfect.

11 hours ago, gamblertuba said:

Off topic sorta but Sunny with the Suppressive Fire condition is hilarious. I only roll one die you say? Perfect.

Or Weapon's Malfunction.

On 12/6/2017 at 7:31 PM, Crimsonwarlock said:
On 12/6/2017 at 8:10 AM, gamblertuba said:

Off topic sorta but Sunny with the Suppressive Fire condition is hilarious. I only roll one die you say? Perfect.

Or Weapon's Malfunction.

What happens When you have both? Does rolling no dice count as all your dice showing the same result (technically yes)?

If so, what result to add?

36 minutes ago, Infinite_Maelstrom said:

What happens When you have both? Does rolling no dice count as all your dice showing the same result (technically yes)?

If so, what result to add?

Question has no official answer.