Predictions for the meta post FAQ

By Chippy118, in X-Wing

22 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

I'm 100% excited for triple HLC Gunboats (maybe double HLC+ace). That alpha is nastier and more flexible than ordnance.

Bio knows what's up

In my personal experience, dengar was the single greatest pain in the *** to face with anything (even x7s) because his burst damage potential was absolutely absurd

His torps being gone opens up a lot of breathing room for the poor lower ps nonturrets that could rarely attack from outside his firing arc

Edited by ficklegreendice
5 hours ago, Jiron said:

Fair Ship Rebels will be a lot weaker with Biggs nerf. Stronger builds could be made.

Replace Biggs with Braylen and the list is still ridiculously strong.

2 minutes ago, ficklegreendice said:

Bio knows what's up

In my personal experience, dengar was the single greatest pain in the *** to face with anything (even x7s) because his burst damage potential was absolutely absurd

His torps being gone opens up a lot of breathing room for the poor lower ps nonturrets that could rarely attack from outside his firing arc

Yup. Jousting Dengar becomes a bit more of a realistic possiblity when you can do it from range 3 without taking a 4 die attack in response.

So, here's the big question:

Does anyone thing TIE swarms might be able to make a comeback? I suspect Harpoon Missiles just suppress them too hard :(

3 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

So, here's the big question:

Does anyone thing TIE swarms might be able to make a comeback? I suspect Harpoon Missiles just suppress them too hard :(

No but a GUNBOAT mini swarm is far superior.

Biased opinion because I was never truly into TIE swarms (wonder why...)

But in my experience (lots of it in wave 5), you'd just lose games against any sort of turret with just a little bit of bad luck.

One lucky green roll from your opponent, one inveitable blank out on a TIE, and suddenly you simply don't have the means to push any damage through on two ship lists while you keep getting ps killed. Because there's no way to out play a turret, you're just praying for green dice to not **** you. And they will **** you

Besides, even the burst damage of crackswarm can be more easily replicated with HLC gunboats now (who also hit consistently hard, unlike DEADEYE gamma vets that become worthless post munitions)

Edited by ficklegreendice
3 minutes ago, thespaceinvader said:

So, here's the big question:

Does anyone thing TIE swarms might be able to make a comeback? I suspect Harpoon Missiles just suppress them too hard :(

Maybe. Just don't fly them in formation.

The Baron lives...again.

Just now, BlodVargarna said:

Maybe. Just don't fly them in formation.

So no then.

In the traditional sense of howlrunner and company.

4 TLT aggressors will be in the top meta (or 4 + OL). I think KyloRAC might raise in position. Not sure it will go to the top but might be in top 10. Imperials will be back in top 10 as well. They did enough change to make some fragile ships viable again. The Tie Silencer gain a lot of potential with this FAQ. I see a potential with Silencer + double TLT build. I also think the Gunboat now as extremely high potential in the "near future" meta. Overall the future looks good for the Imperials and i believe we will be closer to a balanced triple faction game.

The Shadowcaster will raise in popularity. Double Shadowcaster and Dengar/Asajj will be high in the meta. Especially now that Miranda can be more sensitive to stress and aces might come back.

Intensity Poe coupled with Lowrisk and a 3rd ship could be something. Nym remains a good pilot and will still be top meta but less dominant. Lowrisk and Rex are going to be a bigger part of the rebel meta now that Biggs is out. Kanan still has some potential with the new Phantom comming.

On the negatively affected elements: Triple scouts are out and Dengar will take a hit (hes still really good, just balanced now IMO). Removing K4 from him as well as the torp was the correct move IMO. Stress control is going to make a comeback. Because of that EI Miranda wont be as dominant as she currently is. Biggs is completly out of the meta (IMO the nerf was a bit overkill for him but better that than nothing). Not sure if Kanan will find a partner to remain a decent option.

They actually did more change than i expected them to. The Genius (ie read "Nym") nerf is much faster than their usual reaction time. Are they starting to improve? IMO the top 20 current meta positions will see major changes after the FAQ is released. For the better.

Dengar/Shadowcaster

Tel/Shadowcaster

Dash/Miranda

AWINGS

Dash/Poe

1 hour ago, BlodVargarna said:

Maybe. Just don't fly them in formation.

Yeah, not sure we will see a lot of Howlrunner but 5-6 named Ties could be an interesting choice. Tie pilots have some amazing abilities but they just dont get to use them more than a couple times a game usually.

7 hours ago, thespaceinvader said:

Miranda Nym, Dash Miranda.

Neither of those lists have been hit particularly hard; Miranda just transitions into LRS and missiles instead of ALSAM and Cluster Mines, Nym loads up with discardable bombs and EM, they both truck on as before. They're still going to be huge.

Imperial high PS alpha is still perfectly intact.

I'm hoping that the major hits to action bombs mean we might see some low hull aces back.

Fairship and OPQ are still fairly OK. New Biggs will take some getting used to, and might be replaced with Jess in OPQ, but mostly they still work, they're just a little easier to approach.

The big, big hit is Contracted Scouts and Dengar. What the lasting impacts of those are, I'm not sure, but I suspect we see more low agility Rebels, more low hull aces, etc.

We'll see Assaj back, and we'll probably see more Ketsu.

It might even be possibel to make good use of Bomblet Deathrain (HERESY!).

I for one am looking forward to experimenting. New metas are fun, especially when a big shakeup is coming soon with wave twelveteen.

So with single target damage down the B wings and interceptor types return. Which would be responded to by swarms if saturated salvo/ accuracy correctors/ munitions failsafe b wings weren't a thing that could exist in swarm meta. So basically, we are returning to imperial aces and rebel point efficiency. Jk: guns for hire does both of these things better so we will sit in scum nets until further notice

The advsensors tlt bomblet nym is still a thing.

Dengar losing his mech mainly sucks because now he has 3 less greens for k4. But he will still be a powerhouse.

21 minutes ago, rafcpl6868 said:

So with single target damage down the B wings and interceptor types return. Which would be responded to by swarms if saturated salvo/ accuracy correctors/ munitions failsafe b wings weren't a thing that could exist in swarm meta. So basically, we are returning to imperial aces and rebel point efficiency. Jk: guns for hire does both of these things better so we will sit in scum nets until further notice

uh...no

the Vaksai and Viper are both notably inferior aces to Fenn Rau. Only Xizor's ability offers significantly more durability, but his ps is obviously lower. And none of the scum aces are capable of stacking focus + evades to become defensive powerhouses like soontir or the x7.

16 minutes ago, Vineheart01 said:

The advsensors tlt bomblet nym is still a thing.

Dengar losing his mech mainly sucks because now he has 3 less greens for k4. But he will still be a powerhouse.

it's more him losing his torps that make him less...utterly stupid

but agreed, he's still incredible and will now be taking EU to continue being a pain in the ***

I really do believe the new environment is going to open the way for HLC gunboats now that Dengar has become a little more reasonable. The only things that really prey on them will be DEADEYE Blacksun aces and w.e the Kim is bringing at that same PS (this being exclusively due to the ps advantage, since their alpha strikes are about the same), but both those ships don't have the same level of sustained damage that the gunboat offers and I don't think they'll be hacking it against more durable lists that can either tank or avoid their alpha strike.

and yes, the Kim can reload but people are vastly overestimating the utility of reload when it eats an attack and an action. The OS-1 and ADV SLAM get around both of these detriments (and can even SLAM away to reload safely), but what can the Kim's slow *** do about it? Burnout SLAM once? Unless there's an upgrade in there that directly address Reload issues, the Kim will not be an amazing reload platform

and the Kim does seem to be built around alpha strikes, as it is advertised as having a clunky dial, it's a B-wing (jack **** ito sustained defenses), its upgrade slots scream alpha strike, and it has a bullseye arc to further amplify the damage of a well shot missile.

Edited by ficklegreendice

I'm sure we'll see plenty of Miranda with EI. She doesn't have to use it, just keeping the threat of dropping clusters on an ace's face will be enough to keep them at bay where she will work them over with TLT shots. And she Regens.

16 hours ago, ficklegreendice said:

Biased opinion because I was never truly into TIE swarms (wonder why...)

But in my experience (lots of it in wave 5), you'd just lose games against any sort of turret with just a little bit of bad luck.

One lucky green roll from your opponent, one inveitable blank out on a TIE, and suddenly you simply don't have the means to push any damage through on two ship lists while you keep getting ps killed. Because there's no way to out play a turret, you're just praying for green dice to not **** you. And they will **** you

Besides, even the burst damage of crackswarm can be more easily replicated with HLC gunboats now (who also hit consistently hard, unlike DEADEYE gamma vets that become worthless post munitions)

I know that P. Heaver, amongst others, prefer to go with hull consistency over agility. I respect it, who am I to argue?

But your argument can be turned on it's head to say... You shouldn't take turrets, you might meet a swarm! They get some lucky greens (which also happens, although statistically less often than blanks) for the first two rounds, and then you're facing a full swarm while your ships are already down to hull, with a crit or two!

Supposedly these all balance out, with enough games played. So a TIE swarm will wipeout against one opponent but will floor another. As the opponent of the swarm, you don't know which part of the results spectrum you are going to face; it could be your unlucky day...

Personally, I hope the meta becomes more friendly to 2R attack swarms. To be honest, any swarm!

Garven will be back in a big way. Watch out for the new meta power house!

22 minutes ago, Larky Bobble said:

I know that P. Heaver, amongst others, prefer to go with hull consistency over agility. I respect it, who am I to argue?

But your argument can be turned on it's head to say... You shouldn't take turrets, you might meet a swarm! They get some lucky greens (which also happens, although statistically less often than blanks) for the first two rounds, and then you're facing a full swarm while your ships are already down to hull, with a crit or two!

Supposedly these all balance out, with enough games played. So a TIE swarm will wipeout against one opponent but will floor another. As the opponent of the swarm, you don't know which part of the results spectrum you are going to face; it could be your unlucky day...

Personally, I hope the meta becomes more friendly to 2R attack swarms. To be honest, any swarm!

nonsense. Swarms have never EVER countered turrets to the point where the swarm player just had an easier time of the matchup. Swarms are incredibly difficult to fly due to how **** the individual elements are and how many of them you have to work with. meanwhile, high PS EU turrets are STILL among the easiest ships to fly and arcdodge lower PS with ( especially Dash) and can easily built to invalidate opposing green dice luck via either gunner or just four dice.

And even now we have stuff like focused LW dash which is just a royal pain to even roll dice against without top-tier offense

another massive problem with the swarm regarding the opponent's greens is its craptastic 2 dice primary. Compare the absolute optimal scenario of 8 TIE fighters against a range 3 Dash v just 3 HLC gunboats

That's 2 TIE fighter dice against 3 Dash dice + LW, multiplied out to 16 reds against 24 greens (not counting the re-rolled blanks)

HLC boats get 4 dice each against Dash's 2 + LW, mutiplied out to 12 reds and 6 greens (not counting the re-rolled blanks)

Now obviously this isn't a perfect comparison (ideally the TIEs have more focus for mods than Dash does), but it does illustrate just how many more green dice the opponent gets to roll against TIES. Statistically speaking yes, the dice should (hard emphasis on "should") average out but you have go through so many more greens because you have so many more rolls to make. Plus, the TIE fighters at maximum potential hits can easily deal no damage against Dash. But if a gunboat gets four hits? 2 damage guaranteed

2-dice primaries are basically just trash outside of some specific cases (initial crackswarm volley, range 1, and against 0/1 agility without mods), and the game was pushing towards red dice creep long before the jm5k came out (Started with the phantom, went on through Dash, Brobots, TLTs and then the jm5k) and the players were gravitating towards it because it was simply becoming more reliable. You were simply less at the mercy of green dice

Edited by ficklegreendice

You moved the goalposts FGD. I was talking about probability and dice, based on your comment, not in-game strategy...

The old wisdom was that swarms counter turrets. Dodging arcs is tough when you get blocked. I am referring the large base PWTs though...

3 hours ago, ficklegreendice said:

Biased opinion because I was never truly into TIE swarms (wonder why...)

But in my experience (lots of it in wave 5), you'd just lose games against any sort of turret with just a little bit of bad luck.

One lucky green roll from your opponent, one inveitable blank out on a TIE, and suddenly you simply don't have the means to push any damage through on two ship lists while you keep getting ps killed. Because there's no way to out play a turret, you're just praying for green dice to not **** you. And they will **** you

Besides, even the burst damage of crackswarm can be more easily replicated with HLC gunboats now (who also hit consistently hard, unlike DEADEYE gamma vets that become worthless post munitions)

This isn't directed at you...

Cries to nerf turrets will now fill the air. I can almost guarantee it. If there's one thing I am beginning to see, it's that if you scream loud enough here, you get what you want. Secondly, turrets are the new boogeymen (or are about to be....Dash/Miranda will be "too tough" to beat, so we'll need to nerf it).

If not, cries to nerf Autothrusters will be next. I predict Imp Aces will now make a comeback. Turret fanbois won't be able to hit them, again, and the nerf cycle will continue.

Kind of makes me wonder why I buy stuff just to have it changed into something very different than what I paid for originally.

Anyhoo, you heard it here first.

5 minutes ago, Scopes said:

This isn't directed at you...

Cries to nerf turrets will now fill the air.

I’m pretty sure those cries have been around for a long time. Turrets have taken over the game.

I think the new Fenn Rau shuttle with the ghost, or by itself, is going to be massively important. A coordinate action at PS11, or with the cheap pilot in the ghost at the beginning of combat, is going to be massive for repositioning.

Between that and PS11 Kylo, it looks like arc dodgers and fat turrets will mostly take over.

I don't think swarms are coming back, but I don't think turrets are going to become obnoxious. To beat a turret you just have high spike damage. Ehhh... we all just got the best missiles and have two new spike damage ships in the Gilla and GUNBOAT on the way.

Edited by Boba Rick
9 hours ago, Sarcon said:

Quad TLT will be strong again

Dash + Nym or Miranda

RACLO + Ace

Dengar Nym (both with Engine)

Still kinda new to Xwing, what is RACLO?

1 hour ago, Boba Rick said:

I don't think swarms are coming back, but I don't think turrets are going to become obnoxious. To beat a turret you just have high spike damage. Ehhh... we all just got the best missiles and have two new spike damage ships in the Gilla and GUNBOAT on the way.

And the Silencer now seems to be an interesting option in the new meta. With intensity and thrusters i think Kylo now has some potential. Even if his pilot ability isnt all that great.