Sunny Bounder's Linked Battery math

By Rakaydos, in X-Wing

Sunny Bounder with Heavy Scyk and Linked battery costs 18 points. Throw on Pulse ray shield for an even 20 if you want it.

But how does the battery interact with her ability?

Unlike a TL, LB cant "reroll 0 dice" so you cant use it to turn hit/focus into triple hit, without an actual die roll. But that die roll is still a 3/8 chance of getting triple hit, and there's only a 2/8 chance you'll be worse off if you reroll that focus. (really, same goes for rerolling the crit in a hit/crit roll, as long as you have a focus to spend.)

So how likely is sunny to get triple hits? Lets do the numbers. (assuming focus)

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TLDR:

Totals:

Triple Crit: 12/512

Triple hit: 218/512

...for a total of just under 45% of attacks at triple result

Hit/Crit: 62/512

Double hit: 84/512

...for an additional 28% of results

64/512 chance of first die being a crit

--8/512 chance of a natual double crit, becoming a triple crit

(no LB)

--24/512 chance to roll hit/crit, LB the crit

----3/512 to reroll into hit/crit

----9/512 to reroll into double hit, becoming triple hit

----6/512 to reroll into hit/focus, becoming double hit

----6/512 to reroll into hit/blank

--16/512 chance to roll focus/crit, LB the CRIT to maximize triple results

----2/512 to reroll into focus/crit, becoming hit/crit

----6/512 to reroll into focus/hit, becoming Double Hit

----4/512 to reroll into double focus, which becomes triple focus, then triple hit

----4/512 to reroll into focus/miss

--16/512 chance to roll blank/crit, LB the blank

----2/512 to reroll into double crit, becoming triple crit

----6/512 to reroll into hit/crit

----4/512 to reroll into focus crit, becoming hit/crit

----4/512 to reroll into blank crit.

192/512 chance of the first die being a hit

--24/512 chance of rolling hit/crit, LB the crit

----3/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----9/512 chance of rerolling into double hit, becoming Triple Hit

----6/512 chance of rerolling into focus/hit, becoming Double Hit

----6/512 chance of rerolling into blank/hit

--72/512 chance of a natural double hit, becoming Triple Hit

(No LB)

--48/512 chance of rolling hit/focus, LB the focus

----6/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----18/512 chance of rerolling into double hit, becoming triple hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/focus, becoming Double hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/blank

--48/512 chance of rolling into hit/blank, LB the blank

----6/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----18/512 chance of rerolling into double hit, becoming triple hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/focus, becoming Double hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/blank

128/512 chance of the first die being focus

--16/512 chance of rolling Focus/crit, LB the crit to maximize triples

----2/512 chance of rerolling into focus/crit, which becomes hit/crit

----6/512 chance of rerolling into focus/hit, which becomes double hit

----4/512 chance of rerolling into double focus, which becomes triple focus then Triple Hit

----4/512 chance of rerolling into focus/blank, which becomes blank/hit

--48/512 chance of rolling Focus/hit, LB the focus

----6/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----18/512 chance of rerolling into double hit, becoming Triple Hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into focus/hit, becoming double hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into blank/hit

--32/512 chance of rolling Double Focus, becoming Triple Hit

(no LB)

--32/512 chance of rolling Focus/blank, LB the blank

----4/512 chance of rerolling into focus/crit, becoming hit/crit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into focus/hit, becoming Double Hit

----8/512 chance of rerolling into Double Focus, becoming Triple Hit

----8/512 chance of rerolling into focus/blank, becoming hit/blank

128/512 chance of the first die being Blank

--16/512 chance of rolling Blank/crit, LB the blank

----2/512 chance of rerolling into Double Crit, becoming Triple Crit

----6/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----4/512 chance of rerolling into focus/crit, becomig hit/crit

----4/512 chance of rerolling into blank/crit

--48/512 chance of rolling blank/hit, LB the blank

----6/512 chance of rerolling into hit/crit

----18/512 chance of rerolling into double hit, becomes Triple Hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/focus, becoming double hit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into hit/blank

--32/512 chance of rolling blank/focus, LB the blank

----4/512 chance of rerolling into focus/crit, becoming hit/crit

----12/512 chance of rerolling into focus/hit, becoming Double Hit

----8/512 chance of rerolling into Double focus, becoming Triple Hit

----8/512 chance of rerolling into focus/blank, becoming hit/blank

--32/512 chance of rolling double blank, for 3 blank dice. Reroll 1 with LB

----8/512 chance of rerolling into triple blank

----24/512 chance of rerolling into a single hit, crit or focus

Edited by Rakaydos

45% triple hit on an 18 point chassis isn't too bad.

45% seems pretty reasonable. Higher than I initially thought. Though 18 pts is competing with a Quadjumper with Intel Agent and Spacetug Tractor Array.

Does this include odds to roll natty double Focus or reroll into double Focus?

8 minutes ago, Skargoth said:

Does this include odds to roll natty double Focus or reroll into double Focus?

It does. It attempts to get Double Hit (3/8 odds on reroll) if possible, Double Focus (2/8 odds), and only if none of that is possible, aim for Double Crit. (1/8 odds)

Without a TL, there's nothing you can do about the Triple blank.

That's still a very nice thought. I'd discarded the Heavy Scyk as a worthwhile caddy, but Sunny does do well with it.

11 hours ago, Rakaydos said:

Without a TL, there's nothing you can do about the Triple blank.

Apart from add a blank. Obviously.