@Norell what is your role?

I'm typing already

1 minute ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Thank you for reminding me. So you are only partially cleared - you could be the vote thief lying about having lost your vote - and that only if Toad is. Otherwise, you are both scum.

Slept peacefully.

I’ve got two people confirming my night actions

So here are my thoughts: I don't like Ebon's claim at all. I feel like he's trying to pull of something I did with my arsonist - trying to sell it as a town role. And I'm not buying it so far.He claims he lost his ability, he returns with results form people when he shouldn't get anything.... It's just a mess. Which could be Pod's doing but I have to believe that there is a clear-defined system how this game works... Either he is majorly confused about his own role or he is lying.

Funnily it seems that Toad is against the town as well as he is a self-aligned player. And supposedly my arch nemesis as I am the town watcher. I watched JJ the first night but nobody visited him. He acted suspicious and I was hoping to either learn the identity of a town cop/tracker and hence start to build Team Town or catch a scum. Then I watched Gnips but again, no result. So Toad is more or less confirmed by me at this point (mind you, he still can claim a partial fake role!)

All in all, I accept Toad's claim for now and luckily for him we can't lynch him just yet so he may ask the scum to grant him victory

So my list:
Gnips and me: town

Toad: 3rd party

Ebon, Mad: Scummy McScum

If what Norell says is true I’m all for throwing my weight on towns side...

##vote EbonHawk

@TheToad (1) ebon, ebon

@GhostofNobodyInParticular

@Norell

@EbonHawk (1) Toad , Toad

@Madaghmire

With 5 alive it takes 3 to Hammer

And just to be clear @Norell ... I win if I survive. I have a secondary win if I make it longer than you... if we both make it to the end we both win

##reclaim confirmed

8 minutes ago, TheToad said:

And just to be clear @Norell ... I win if I survive. I have a secondary win if I make it longer than you... if we both make it to the end we both win

Wtf is a secondary win?

**** if I know... it’s what my PM says... the way I understand it is I win if I survive to the end... or if I live longer than the town watcher

So, yet another breakdown:

We have 3 people who claim investigative roles:

1. Ebon
   1. bird watcher, bird dies if it hits 3rd party or scum
   2. N1 investigated CNinja (3rd P) bird DIDN'T die.
   3. N2 investigated Toad (3rd P) bird DIED.
2. Toad
   1. Tracker, win con implies watcher - supports Norell
   2. N1 tracked me (why?) - no result, naturally
   3. N2 watched Mad, no result
3. Norell
   1. Watcher, supports Toad
   2. N1 watched JJ - No result
   3. N2 watched me, no result

A really annoying turn of events.

If Toad is telling the truth, he supports Norell's claim and clears Mad of any activity. Implications are that Mad either is telling the truth, or is the vote thief and stole no body's vote. If Toad is lying, Norell may well be too, and Mad also may not be cleared.

If Norell is telling the truth, then he supports Toad's claim. He clears by extension Mad through Toad, but clears nobody himself.

If Ebon is telling the truth, then either Toad or Norell are lying or both. If both, we have our scum. If 1, I am leaning Norell, as for Toad to lie he would have had to know that there was a watcher. Ebon clears nobody by himself, owing to the ambiguity of 3rd P/scum in his bird's death con. Also, 2 watchers is odd, so I am inclined to believe that both Ebon AND Norell is unlikely.

The only person who confirms Mad in any way is Toad. And the only thing it confirms is that he was inactive last night. If he is the vote thief, then he is scum and stole no vote. My issue with this is that with 2 scum and an anonymous vote, scum would have won by now. Which begs the further question, if he's telling the truth, why haven't scum won by now? The only reason I can think of is that they didn't steal the vote through some other agency, or indeed targeted Norell after JJ struck. It is possible that there is only 1 scum, and that the vote thief is town, but I deem that unlikely, given the claims. If there was 1 scum with a stolen vote, then both Toad and Ebon are scum - unlikely. Thus no matter what, the scum must somehow have failed to steal the vote.

The combos here point to Norell and Toad supporting each other, be they town or scum, they are likely a pair. Ebon and Norell are at odds, as two watchers seems odd. I am inclined to believe that Norell and Toad are telling the truth, but then that is only because of the inconsistency between the death con of Ebon's bird and his results. However, the role is wacky enough that Pod could have produced it - as Ebon himself pointed out about CNinja. Annoyingly, Ebon knows Pod best, and is likely to be able to guess a sort of thing Pod may have come up with.

Or all these people, Mad seems the most likely to be scum, for the only way that scum haven't won yet if they have an anonymous vote is for both Ebon and Toad to be scum. That seems practically impossible at the moment - on the other hand, if 1 of them is town, why haven't the scum hammered him by now? 1 town vote is all 2 scum need in a 3-to-hammer period. . . which implies that there is only 1 scum, and again, that would be Mad, else the scum would have 2 votes.

What do you people think? Could it be that there are in fact 4 town and a scum? For scum to hammer in that case would clearly reveal his existence, and he'd still have to live through another day. Which actually seems the most likely to me. Either Mad is telling the truth and the scum is hiding his ID, as he must live through today to win, or Mad is lying, hoping to disguise himself as town.

I wrote more, but then realized I was going in circles. What do you guys think?

I was fine with norell until his claim... seems unlikely pod would've given a watcher, and a tracker both useless roles against scum who're ninjas as neither can actually find out scum ironically, and included my role which can...

im inclined to believe norell and toad are the scum, but that's only if we believe mad is a misguided town, and the possiabily that he was notified someone tried to steal his vote last night and failed and he's used that as a cover to draw out scum too many possibilities

My role is plain and simply a town-aligned watcher, not some obscure scarecrow. So if Toad knew there is a watcher, it is good enough for me to trust his claim for now. But that "secondary wincon" still concerns me.

Norell, have you actually seen anything?

No I did not. Pod said that nobody visited JJ or Gnips either.

By the way Ebon, your story adds less and less up. You said that you're the only one who could track down a ninja scum. But you also said that your crow would return dead if it watches a 3rd party or a scum didn't you? Which means that you could watch only townies with your role, otherwise your bird is dead. So how exactly can you track down a ninja, which we don't even know exists? Mind you that I visited JJ the FIRST night, not the night he was murdered...

On 10/13/2017 at 0:36 AM, EbonHawk said:

@JJs Juggernaut 8 players, 2 scum seems like the most likely, I also think theres a power role in there somewhere , with me and you that leaves 3 other town..

Soft claim? Or role fishing?

On 10/13/2017 at 7:30 PM, EbonHawk said:

I think we're all in agreement there's two scum and a cop, I don't have many solid thoughts on anyone yet though..

I also doubt we would be lucky enough to get a doc in the mix as well

He assumes, after very little discussion, that there are two scum, and says a cop, even though nobody mentioned anything.

On 10/13/2017 at 7:38 PM, EbonHawk said:

Following on with the training days logic, maybe scum have a ability to go undetected or maybe there's a traitor (denzel) which means we would have 2 scum but without the ability to talk... could make sense in a smaller setup like this maybe

Refers to a Ninja role here. Could also be misdirecting. Also, if he is a watcher, why would he assume this?

On 10/15/2017 at 5:23 PM, EbonHawk said:

I bring up 3rd party as I was wondering weather Vis could very well be a 3rd party with a 'different' win condition, maybe explaining his play of lack off so far...

Most of this seems misdirection at worst or a grave mistake at best, but if his bird dies upon hitting scum OR 3rd party, then he knows that there are third party about. This may be an attempt to gauge people's reaction to that.

On 10/17/2017 at 0:09 AM, JJs Juggernaut said:

Holy fuckery...I say I'm going to be away, and the scum jump all over me for the attempted turbo lynch...typical. I'm not even looking in Mad's direction since he is the only reason I'm alive, something scum wouldn't have been bothered to do. I expressed on early paragraph of suspicion at Ebon, then did the same to GNiPs afterwards, it makes sense for me to follow my most recent hunches, yet Ninja tries to spin it as me being inconsistent.

Let's look at the votes. We have Ebon, Ninja, and GNiPs on both lynch trains . Both candidates are town (Vis was, I still am (God please no cult...)). I doubt both scum would stick themselves out like that, but at least one almost certainly is. I was leaning Gnips yesterday, but that was day one suspicions. The developments of late yesterday have given me a new target.

We know that of is 3, 2 are town (me and Ninja) I would think that a scum would be eager to lynch anyone.

As for the first part, it ties in. Mad saving JJ is odd, if Mad were scum, as at that point anyone would have agreed with his vote.

On 10/17/2017 at 3:24 PM, Madaghmire said:

Ninja, your whole argument is really flawed if your read on JJ isnt accurate. It looks like you viewing the circumstances to fit into your already existing view. Which is scummy.

I'm unwilling to place a vote on ninja tho, as if this is a town v town kerfuffle, then voting ninja drops him into turbo range.

I'd like to know the answer to Nips question as well. If we know for certain scum targetted ninja, then that lends significant credability to his argument.

Btw, I think its a little dangerous for us to get locked into a binary choice here, although sadly thanks to a quiet d1 and the unique circumstances surrounding vis' hanging, im not sure where exactly to shine the light. I don't really think we can pull too much from the vote on vis, although since we have such a limited set of data available thats where im going to look next.

All of this seems very town. He, like me, was trying to discourage quick voting and look at it carefully.

On 10/17/2017 at 7:02 PM, EbonHawk said:

Cninja and JJ going full force at one another currently, need to read back properly b efore choosing which side of the fence to fall if any for that matter, mad doctor does seem like a very pod thing to do, but then w e also all know that could be a very pod thing to do... which would be good cover

He knows at this point that CNinja is some sort of doctor. And yet here he is casting doubt upon that possibility.

On 10/17/2017 at 7:25 PM, EbonHawk said:

right now I think Cninja is looking scummy, if on the slightest chance he's not though and comes through as town well then I would look to you...

and I feel his town chances are slim so I'm willing to hedge that bet

And again here.

21 hours ago, EbonHawk said:

my actual role is a watcher, its basically a cop but when I target someone it reveals what they did at night

on night 1 I watched Cnija, it revealed he protected someone (we now know that to be him)

last night I watched the toad, and it came back "bird killed"

basically in Pod style I send a bird to 'watch' the player at night, in my PM he told me a dead bird is a bad omen for town, upon some wikiing watcher are usally included in games with Ninjas, scum who're undetectable at night

Watchers see when someone visits a player. Ninjas are specifically made to avoid them. So this makes no sense. He also got the definition of watcher wrong, which is weird cause he was 'wikiing' it.

21 hours ago, EbonHawk said:

the ninja role allows scum to do things such as stealing, killing, or in cult cases recruiting undetected from investigate roles

He is here really pushing hard on the Ninja thing. My issue with this is that if the scum were a Ninja, the only thing the investigative roles would be able to see are the vote thieves.

We also know that Vis was a Jailkeeper. Thus, we had a Jailkeeper, a Doc, 2 Vote Thieves, and x number of power roles.

It occurs to me, that something I posted earlier is mistaken. If either Ebon or Toad is scum, then it is possible that the vote theft worked, but it wouldn't make a difference because the scum would already be voting, and the anonymous would only point to which was town. Thus, we need 1 more vote on one or the other before we see any anonymous votes.

So:

If there are 2 scum then they have 2 votes. With 1 town vote, they have hammer and victory. With the votes on Ebon and Toad, we must therefore see 1 scum vote on one. Meaning that the other scum is waiting for one town vote, and then he will hammer and win. This version of events means that Ebon or Toad is scum, and Mad must be the other, else the scum would have 3 votes and win. Mad therefore is the best vote here, as the only one confirmed.

If there is only 1 scum, then either:

1) He is already voting for either Ebon or Toad, and needs 2 townies to get on board. If this is the case, then he is Ebon or Toad.

2) He is voting neither and is waiting for one more town vote on 2 townies. Here he is Mad , else he would have had Mad's vote and won.

This means that the scum must be between Toad, Ebon, and Mad. Toad is somewhat supported by Norell. He could have gotten lucky and claimed his 2nd win con to get on Ebon's good side, only to have it backfire, then have the actual watcher show up, but I find that unlikely. In 2/3 of the above, Mad is the only choice. In the other, Ebon is the likelier choice of the two.

Thus we whittle it down to Ebon or Mad.

I agree nips, there is still a super slight chance that Ebon is in fact whatever he claimed to be and Norell is lying but as I’ve said it dosnt matter to me... you’ve got to pull the trigger, I’ll follow your vote either way...

##unvote

10 minutes ago, TheToad said:

I agree nips, there is still a super slight chance that Ebon is in fact whatever he claimed to be and Norell is lying but as I’ve said it dosnt matter to me... you’ve got to pull the trigger, I’ll follow your vote either way...

##unvote

Wonderful.

11 minutes ago, TheToad said:

I agree nips, there is still a super slight chance that Ebon is in fact whatever he claimed to be and Norell is lying but as I’ve said it dosnt matter to me... you’ve got to pull the trigger, I’ll follow your vote either way...

##unvote

It cannot, according to my above figuring, be Norell. If it was, then Mad would be telling the truth, and Norell would have 2 votes. That would be enough to hammer the town of you or Ebon, and win. It can only be you, Ebon or Mad. ONLY. I made no mention of Norell.

7 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

If there is only 1 scum, then either:

1) He is already voting for either Ebon or Toad, and needs 2 townies to get on board. If this is the case, then he is Ebon or Toad.

2) He is voting neither and is waiting for one more town vote on 2 townies. Here he is Mad , else he would have had Mad's vote and won.

I'm confused. In this scenario I'm the lone gunman, have two votes but didn't hammer ebon or toad?

7 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

This means that the scum must be between Toad, Ebon, and Mad. Toad is somewhat supported by Norell. He could have gotten lucky and claimed his 2nd win con to get on Ebon's good side, only to have it backfire, then have the actual watcher show up, but I find that unlikely. In 2/3 of the above, Mad is the only choice. In the other, Ebon is the likelier choice of the two.

Thus we whittle it down to Ebon or Mad.

I actually don't see why you are auto-clearing norell if you think its even possible that ebon is telling the truth, or that toad is lying.

If ebon is telling the truth, then its possible that his wackjob role fills toads watcher condition. In which case all Norell has done is claim a role based on toads reveal.

If toad is lying, then we don't know that there is a watcher supposed to be in the game.

Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

It cannot, according to my above figuring, be Norell. If it was, then Mad would be telling the truth, and Norell would have 2 votes. That would be enough to hammer the town of you or Ebon, and win. It can only be you, Ebon or Mad. ONLY. I made no mention of Norell.

Aaaand now I get it.

1 hour ago, Norell said:

By the way Ebon, your story adds less and less up. You said that you're the only one who could track down a ninja scum. But you also said that your crow would return dead if it watches a 3rd party or a scum didn't you? Which means that you could watch only townies with your role, otherwise your bird is dead. So how exactly can you track down a ninja, which we don't even know exists? Mind you that I visited JJ the FIRST night, not the night he was murdered...

Well if it dies, that's tracked a scum

As pod can confirm I'm gunna be flying to Barcelona in 2 hours, my vote stays Toad is as scum as they come, I'll be active until I'm on the flight