Average number of turns per game

By GreenDragoon, in X-Wing

I just finished listening to the latest Gold Sqd Podcast, and I have either missed the discussion here or it never happened.

The most interesting point to me was that Dion (I think?) took a close look at 50 videotaped games. He found the average game length to be 60min, and the average number of turns to be 11. I'm quite sure these 11 turns are not all with shooting each other, that number should be 2-4 (in my experience) lower.

What does that mean for us as players?

My first reaction brings me to some number crunching:
If my squad can deal a maximum of X damage per turn, then I have around 9X maximum damage. If that is below his HP, then I have to expect not to destroy all 100 points.
For example with 9 rounds of shooting, I know that my Imp Alpha List has around 11.5 damage with the Harpoons, and then (with the most common mods) around 6 damage - if I shoot on 0 agility ships. That's a maximum of 11.5 + 42 = 59.5 damage.
Going against 2 agility ships, that drops to 43 dmg without focus or 30 damage with focus tokens.
Going down to 7 rounds of shots, that drops again massively (32 vs 2green, 25 vs 2green + focus). Triple Jumps have 27 health! Losing just few turns and I will not be able to destroy all ships.
FSR2 has 7+3+9+6 = 25 total HP. It's slightly more tedious to get the expected damage, but I'm not expecting much more than against 2agility+focus - considering Jess' rerolls and the reinforce.
All this assumes that I never lose a ship, never bump, there's never an obstacle in-between, I'm never at range 3, I will always have my standard actions, and so on. So the true number will be lower, and certainly so.

I'm just showing these numbers to illustrate that my squad has less oomph than I thought.

So what is your experience? Do you have more or less turns? How many turns with shots per game?

And what does it mean for your strategy?

I'm curious to see what the average number of rounds in a game the goes the full 75 minutes ends up being. The average number of rounds is interesting, but that number alone is going to be thrown off by all the alpha strike games that are over after the 3rd turn of combat. I suspect the time limit is still very tight - in my experience, if I get too cute in the opening turns being shy about engaging I end up regretting it. It will be interesting to have data to help figure out when exactly that tipping point actually is though.

You can expand out the 60 minutes/11 turns average to get 13.75 turns for a 75-minute game on average.

Edited by mdl0114

In theory, yes, but the round length is likely to follow a curve over the course of the game - fairly quick rounds as ships close to combat, very long rounds during the first few critical turns and then generally speeding up as the ship count drops and the game moves towards a resolution. So extending the average doesn't necessarily give you a good number, though it might be close enough.

You could also argue that as engagements happen and you lose ships/health you start to think harder about your moves and it gets slower the longer you go. Especially if you are flying a ship with pre-move repositioning, or a ship with SLAM, or a ship like Corran or Whisper where the wrong move could end you, or a bumpmaster where you need to plot out what you're going to dial in to be able to block everything with intel agent. The time to rounds can vary wildly too. If you're flying an 8 TIE swarm it takes a lot more time to physically go through the dial setting and moving process, and then with bumps and maneuver templates everywhere the rounds themselves can take a very long time to wrap up as you're having to mark and move ships, set up bumps, etc.

Expecting the average game to take 11-ish turns is just an average, there will be outlier games that take 20 rounds or 5 rounds. Watching tapes of every game that went to time and averaging out the rounds needed in each game could get you more data about average turns for games that go to time though.

Most of my games are over long before time is called and only after maybe 5-6 turns i would think on average.

I tend to fly very high damage lists that are also fairly fragile, so either i am dead quick or my opponent. (sometimes i fly other stuff and the games go longer but this is my average i think)