2 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

????

Toad's dead

I meant 'who pressed the most for lynching Toad, and press anyone BUT Caldias (at the moment, Pod).'

It wasn't quite clear, and my apologies, but I meant that in general, you 3 are the ones who press the most for specific lynches, be it Toad or Pod, as the cases have been.

And a CNinj-Dras-Cal-JJ quartet would put us very close to a Red Key victory.......

It doesn't really help our case that Dras apparently doesn't even care any more. On the other hand, if both CNinja and Onidsen would be Red Key they could have just gang on Pod and the game would be over.

I've claimed my innocence since day 1, and pushed hard against my first scum read. After no one listened, it pretty much became my whole game goal to prove myself right (and I did). At this point, I'm just trying to hunt down the biggest threats.

Sorry Ninja, I didn't have time to write any analysis...got busy with deadlines, and today I'm spending time with my girlfriend, so I won't be posting much else today.

However, I think the analysis is not so much needed right now, because we have two conflicting claims. We lynch one, and then the other if need be. Currently, for reasons I already pointed out, I believe Cal more than Pod. His and Toads play reeks of coordinated chaos, exactly what they could plan with the encryptor.

The fact that Norell and GNiPs are pushing so hard make them seems like they have aligned goals. At this point, I think anyone could be cult. I'm just going for who I see as the biggest threat, which is what I've been doing all game.

10 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

I meant 'who pressed the most for lynching Toad, and press anyone BUT Caldias (at the moment, Pod).'

It wasn't quite clear, and my apologies, but I meant that in general, you 3 are the ones who press the most for specific lynches, be it Toad or Pod, as the cases have been.

So your logic now is I pressed on Toad (which I totally didn't I just voted for a cult that claimed)?

What does that prove?

I think our (town which might just be my @$$) is either pod or cal.

@CaribbeanNinja just answer me this: If Cal is our best shot to be a Red Key, why risk lyinching anybody else hoping that he will be a Red Key too?

17 minutes ago, Norell said:

@CaribbeanNinja just answer me this: If Cal is our best shot to be a Red Key, why risk lyinching anybody else hoping that he will be a Red Key too?

You are assuming I agree.

24 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

So your logic now is I pressed on Toad (which I totally didn't I just voted for a cult that claimed)?

What does that prove?

I think our (town which might just be my @$$) is either pod or cal.

It proves nothing. I merely said it seemed like you three were the most prominent TO ME. It was an observation, not a proof of something. Furthermore, I am least suspicious of you, hence my voting for Cal.

2 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

You are assuming I agree.

If you don't agree, why?

The only things Im taking for granted is what has flipped (and Pod isn't even buying that.)

Caldias may in fact be a cultist.

Whats funny is that Pod claiming could have actually saved Cal (If we end up lynching Pod)

The issue is of which cult Cal or Pod are/could be members of. We know for a fact that Black Sun is nowhere near gaining majority. We know that Red Key has a high likelihood of having at least 3 but possibly 4 members already. And if the Hutts were anywhere near gaining majority they wouldn't have revealed themselves. Therefor we can assume that they don't have enough members for a majority either. Of three we can be fairly sure that only one is in a position to win the game next night.

I'm fairly certain that Caldias and JJ are from the same clan. I'm also close to sure that JJ is from ImpCaptain's clan, so they are both Red Keys.

And here is the theorizing: It would be stupid of the Cal/JJ cult to gang on Pod instantly. It would be too clear. Therefor they send in 2-3 votes and one vote is lingering, waiting for an uncertain player to vote on Pod, then the last member drops the hammer. If I were them, I would leave the cult leader in the dark. That means this cult has at least 3 but more likely 4 members, of which only one did not vote on Pod yet. And that would make Onidsen or CNinja their backup and likely the leader.

Of course if there is an encryptor we have not the slightest chance and (never had) and we're just firing into the darkness.

@Onidsen I REALLY would like if you would weight in.

Just now, Norell said:

Of course if there is an encryptor we have not the slightest chance and (never had) and we're just firing into the darkness.

Not an encryptor but a forgotwhatsitsname and too tired to look it up in the wiki.

@Drasnighta, @JJs Juggernaut, @Onidsen nothing Norell, Pod, or GNips has said sways your vote from Pod to Cal?

34 minutes ago, Norell said:

Not an encryptor but a forgotwhatsitsname and too tired to look it up in the wiki.

What does a forgotwhatsitsname do? What ability are you talking about? Just trying to follow your argument.

The ability to tailor the allegiance of the dead I think he means.

I'm halfway tempted to just do nothing, and end up with a no lynch. My biggest worry right now is that CNinja is Red Key, and hoping for me to jump on the non-Red Key target.

Norell sounds persuasive, but he sounds like he's trying too much.

Dras has no reasoning behind his vote - just a general dislike of Pod.

JJ I don't trust. Not a bit. Nippy has been flying underneath my radar, and that bothers me.

I'd be ok with just picking one of our targets if I was sure there would be a night to follow.

I'm more than half tempted to wait it out and go for a no-lynch. But with at least one guaranteed conversion coming tonight, that's...less than satisfactory.

I'll make a call then.

##vote Caldias

Do I have good reasons? Not really. The case either way seems persuasive to me.

But I think that the only way Cal isn't cult already is if the vigilante role is Ascetic too. And I'm not willing to stake the game on that.

I do believe pod is as guilty as anyone else of being scum. His entire m.o. Is basically based on deridement and a self-superior attitude. He constantly and continually makes comments to affirm and reaffirm his self aggrandizing superiority.

"I knew it all along." He says.

the absolutely critical failure of that is that he does so without his own proof, if indeed ever such proof exists, while demanding everyone else justify their actions.

yes, I don't like pod.

but it's not random or frivolous. It's based on his play pattern and, honestly, the way he acts only ever AFTER the fact.

You don't have to worry about me Oni, I'm town.

Here are my arguments on the Pod/Caldias showdown:

Pod - Very strange that he actually wrote long coherent stuff. And it came WAY after Cal claimed. That said, he has been playing differently and has been much more pleasant. This game has been interesting and not that frustrating (although the cult BS sux) because of that. (**** Dras you should have seen him the last three games.)

Caldias - Basically we have to take his word that he's a Vig and he popped both Truthiness and Mads. Caldias isn't going to make any mistakes (I think). Which would make it REALLY strange for him to fake-claim that he killed Madaghmire.

It is a toss-up for me really. I'm leaning Pod, but I could be convinced either way.

36 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

Pod - Very strange that he actually wrote long coherent stuff. And it came WAY after Cal claimed. That said, he has been playing differently and has been much more pleasant.

yes, im in a good place, lets not start with the condescending stuff

If its going 4-4 just come out and say it

3 minutes ago, PodRacer said:

yes, im in a good place, lets not start with the condescending stuff

If its going 4-4 just come out and say it

So no hammer sounds good to you huh?

not today

Well @Caldias unless you can convince me about Pod, or someone else switches their vote, I think you're gonna get hammered.

Any last words?

If you can give me an hour I will have something to say.

I'd like to preface this by saying this is based off the interpretation that the cult leader does not get passed down, which could be wrong, but I feel like Toad was probably lying about that.

This COULD be lylo, but it could not. Let's presume that it is, meaning that the Hutt clan was more successful in recruiting than The Toad let on, or the Red Key recruited well. Red Key cult leader is dead, though, so I'm not sure what Norell's obsession is with that faction.

Okay, so to me, it seems like GNiPs and Pod are probably both cult, possibly in the same one. Pod's logic is bonkers. He's taking the most outlying edge-case possiblities and heralding them as truth, and GNiPs is golf clapping behind him as if he's preaching truth. "Counter claimers are always honest" is the weirdest thing to say, IMO. For instance, Pod is saying he fished for a blaster, got it even though he has a chance of failure, got it, and shot Mads. Okay, there are some big ifs in there. Norell may or may not be in a cult as well, and I do find it interesting he isn't interested in killing cultists, but one type of cultist in particular. JJ could as well be cult and trying to distance himself from the other cultists. CNinja feels town, and I'd say Onidsen does too, but both are good players that can be deceptive.

The thing that makes the least sense is Pod claiming I shot him. Well guess what? If I HAD shot him, I would've just said "I shot Pod, but he somehow survived." I made my intentions to shoot Pod very clear, and the only reason I changed my mind was because Toad flipped not the cult leader, which made me think he might've been throwing shade at a possible townie. So I went to my next highest target, Mad. Pod's story is super convoluted, and requires known roles to operate in a different manner than they are described in the wiki for this third faction to be bogus. The simplest explanation is Pod is BSing.

One thing that has been undisputed, whether I am cult or not, is that I am a Vigilante. Therefore, I am NOT a cult leader, and there is still one out there, at large. If the leadership doesn't pass, we NEED to kill the last cult leader. If Toad was telling the truth and it does pass, well ****, I don't know anymore.

I will probably get lynched, but fair enough. I've done all I could to help. After I flip Vig I hope the convuluted stories and who concocted them get looked at hard.

Hmm...

Very persuasive.

Darn it, Caldias, I had convinced myself that I made the right choice. Now you have me doubting myself.

##unvote

I need to think a little more