1 hour ago, Onidsen said:

@PodRacer why don't you believe in a third faction? We've seen dead players from 3 cults.

Im not sure what to believe is true for the larger part. If three cults is true thats fine,if its a role Iv not heard of thats fine, outside of my control from the start, But last night I know for a fact That i was targeted by a bullet not a cult, And if i had died, I did not expect my obituary to be truthful.

OK. . . Pod counterclaims Cal, but does so late.

Now, from what I understand, it is generally accepted logic that counter-claimers, however late, are truthful, because otherwise they are signing their own death warrant, no? That has been repeated to me from various players here, and in games that JJ and Cal participated in.

So what I get from that is that Cal and JJ have suspended logic in favor of lynching Pod, meaning that they must have ulterior motives for doing so. As I said yesterday, and as I have been been feeling from about Day 2, I believe Cal is scum - in this case, cult. His behavior matches. So, I believe that Pod, however unlikely it may seem, is actually telling the truth (he would know not to counter-claim a truth, as that signs his death warrant). Given his method of play, his shooting at Mad makes sense.

So I shall

##vote Caldias

once again, in the hopes that this time we finally nab a Red.

So, vote analysis. I'm not too great about this but here it goes:

The first thing I noticed how eagerly JJ and Caldias follow each other's lead. Now on Pod. Previous day on Toad. In fact after seriously considering lynching Cal for being a likely Red Key candidate, JJ was the one who first jumped on the Toad train, long before everyone else did, and he pushed really hard to lynch Toad instead. We know for a fact that Caldias is not Black Sun (he killed one) and that he is likely no Hutt either (he led a lynch on one). That leaves us with the unlikely town or the slightly more likely Red Key.

Another interesting fact is that JJ voted mostly with ImpCap who was proven to be the Red Key leader. See the Mad train from D1. And let me refer to this post where Dras defends his vote on Caldias:

And finally we should consider that Toad's claim was at least partially right. That could mean that the Hutts really tried to convert JJ and Cal but they failed.

I think that if there were 2 cult members at the beginning (and this is likely because Mad's role) JJ was likely the Red Key's second player.

##vote Caldias

By the way I have a suspicion that the Hutts are more than Toad admitted, I'm just not sure who they could be yet.

@Visovicswhen you can, please give us a vote count and time left.

5 hours ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

OK. . . Pod counterclaims Cal, but does so late.

Now, from what I understand, it is generally accepted logic that counter-claimers, however late, are truthful, because otherwise they are signing their own death warrant, no? That has been repeated to me from various players here, and in games that JJ and Cal participated in.

So what I get from that is that Cal and JJ have suspended logic in favor of lynching Pod, meaning that they must have ulterior motives for doing so. As I said yesterday, and as I have been been feeling from about Day 2, I believe Cal is scum - in this case, cult. His behavior matches. So, I believe that Pod, however unlikely it may seem, is actually telling the truth (he would know not to counter-claim a truth, as that signs his death warrant). Given his method of play, his shooting at Mad makes sense.

So I shall

##vote Caldias

once again, in the hopes that this time we finally nab a Red.

How exactly am I suspending logic? I detailed my reasoning earlier. I shot Madaghmire, and Pod probably decided I was an easy target after all the Toad shade. And if "counter claims are always truthful" why wouldn't scum players just always counterclaim? Show me exactly where in Pod's post that he has a legitimately good reason for obfuscating his counter claim, playfully voting for Drasnighta, and then several hours after he is active again, is like nah JK I shot mads. Where exactly is the logic there?

My logic in voting for Pod is holy ****, I shot Mads, and Pod is 90% probably lying about it. 10% there is another Vig who for some reason sat on his kills this late.

Night 1 - No hammer or night kill

Day 2:

Ginkapo - Black Sun Fisherman (Norell)

Night 2:

Ovinomanc3r - TOWN (Drasnighta)

Day 3:

BrobaFett - TOWN (ascetic) Motivator (hammered)

Night 3:

Truthiness - Black Sun Leader (Caldias)

ImperialCaptain2017 - Red Key Leader (Drasnighta)

Day 4:

TheToad - Hutt Encryptor (hammered)

Night 4:

Madaghmire - Black Sun Encryptor (Caldias and then PodRacer claim)

9 minutes ago, Caldias said:

How exactly am I suspending logic? I detailed my reasoning earlier. I shot Madaghmire, and Pod probably decided I was an easy target after all the Toad shade. And if "counter claims are always truthful" why wouldn't scum players just always counterclaim? Show me exactly where in Pod's post that he has a legitimately good reason for obfuscating his counter claim, playfully voting for Drasnighta, and then several hours after he is active again, is like nah JK I shot mads. Where exactly is the logic there?

My logic in voting for Pod is holy ****, I shot Mads, and Pod is 90% probably lying about it. 10% there is another Vig who for some reason sat on his kills this late.

1. Totally agree that GNiPs reasoning here is INCREDIBLY shady.

2. There is the possibility that Pod fished a gun and used it.

On 9/13/2017 at 2:29 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

We know that agents can be turned - look at Gink.

Holy Moly. 3 cults now???

Caldias has a point that eliminating Toad saves us from another cult, but I am inclined to agree with Norell above that targeting the more established cults makes more sense as it prolongs the game in favor of a Town win. If Toad truly is just 1, then he can't affect the game, really, as Town outvotes him, so we can beat him. We need to focus on lynching the other cultists, as they could control the vote. If he just targets suspects, and reports them unrecruitable, we could lynch them, and limit the other cults (though we'd have to take his reports with a grain of salt (or a fistful) I think he may very well be an exasperated player, and thus telling the truth).

So really what that boils down to is that I am inclined to believe Toad at the moment, and thus am looking at JJ or Cal to lynch.

On 9/13/2017 at 7:16 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

The issue is that with 3 cults, it actually may be. Because what does one cult care if it kills leader of another cult?

You can't claim that as a defense, because it doesn't clear you. If there was one cult, yes it would. But with 3? Nope. Not at all.

On 9/13/2017 at 11:49 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Either way, he's the least harmful cult. If we don't nab a Red, they could potentially win by tomorrow. Cal is most certainly not Hutt or Sun. Odds are, therefore, that he is either Town or Red. With this many cults about, the odds of him still being town are low, no?

On 9/13/2017 at 0:38 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

I think he's offering to test our suspects for us, under the assumption that if he can't recruit them, they are cult and thus are lynched. If he can recruit them, what will he say? Yes I could recruit them? Whatever answer he gives, we find a cultist. If we direct his recruitment, we can have him target prime suspects, such as Norell, CNinja, and Mad. At the moment, he's tried you and JJ, and reports that both of you are cult.

On 9/13/2017 at 3:25 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

As I read, all I really see is town being confused and Cultists being opportunistic.

I believe Toad, and thus must also believe that the Reds are close to winning. As I look forward to a town victory if possible, I must attempt to root out cultists. And not indiscriminately. No, I feel that for town to win, we must keep the cult numbers down. How do we do that? By going after whoever has the most. At the moment, that is the Reds.

Caldias to me seems to be a cultist and most certainly isn't Hutt or Sun. Therefore, I shall

##vote Caldias

in an effort to curtail the growth of the Cult. Voting Pod or Toad merely allows the other cults to grow, and prevents us from having a chance at victory.

On 9/13/2017 at 3:52 PM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

I assure you, I have not been recruited by Toad. It is merely that I want the town to win, and only through killing the most populated cult can that happen. Could Toad be lying? Of course. But unlike Onidsen above, I am a pessimist, rather than an optimist, and so choose to believe that we are at, essentially, LYLO.

At this point I'm seriously thinking that GNips is a Hutt something. He pretty much fell in line with TheToad the entire day yesterday while supporting TheToad's lies.

I think our first order of business is the pod/cal claim. However I do think Gnips requires more scrutiny. (and @JJs JuggernautI'm still waiting for your analysis. )

23 minutes ago, Caldias said:

How exactly am I suspending logic? I detailed my reasoning earlier. I shot Madaghmire, and Pod probably decided I was an easy target after all the Toad shade. And if "counter claims are always truthful" why wouldn't scum players just always counterclaim? Show me exactly where in Pod's post that he has a legitimately good reason for obfuscating his counter claim, playfully voting for Drasnighta, and then several hours after he is active again, is like nah JK I shot mads. Where exactly is the logic there?

My logic in voting for Pod is holy ****, I shot Mads, and Pod is 90% probably lying about it. 10% there is another Vig who for some reason sat on his kills this late.

Scum don't counter claim because generally, when their claim is found to be a lie, they are lynched. Thus they sign there death warrant, hence counter-claims are taken to be true.

I know the logic is spotty, and as I said above and say again below, it's mainly gut feeling, which takes the statements of others as support, not basis. Pod is always inexplicable in his behavior, and I cannot account for it. What I can account for is his shooting of Mad, based on an observation of his (Pod's) play, and the fact that counter-claims generally should be more trustworthy than initial claims, owing to the danger of lying whilst counter-claiming (see above).

It is nowhere near solid, but I find it has a certain logic to it.

Could you be telling the truth and he lying? Of course. But if so then in your death he is discovered in his lie, and that not only ensures his death, but harms his faction, be it town or cult. For indeed, I am not saying that he is necessarily town, only that his claim seems more truthful than yours, as it would be stupid to counter-claim a truth. As I do not believe you are town, and I know you are not Sun, you could be either Hutt, or Red. Pod could be anything. I am hunting Hutt, or Red as the most prominent and immediate threats to town, given their potential numbers, as I laid out above. However, I more fixated on Red than Hutt, for I don't believe Toad would have outed himself, introducing an here-to-fore unknown 3rd cult faction if he was ahead. It seems irrational. Thus, I am inclined to believe that he sweetened his lie by telling part of the truth, and that thus he my indeed have been losing, at least partially, to the Reds.

As Pod is counterclaiming you, a confirmed non-Sun, and suspected non-Hutt and Town (in my eyes), I can only assume that 1 of you is lying. As the vote is between you two, I find it impossible that you are of the same faction, for that would be stupid. Therefore, Pod can be Sun, Hutt, or Town. You could be Red, Hutt, or Town. As Toad lied about many things, it is likely that neither of you are Hutt. Therefore Pod is likely to be Sun or Town, and you are likely to be Red or Town. As I said, I deem you to be not town, based on gut feelings. Therefore, the rational conclusion in my mind is that you are Red, and Pod is either Town or Sun. If that is the case, then I deem you to be the worse threat, for Red has the potential to possess more members than Town or Sun. I therefore am voting you.

11 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

1. Totally agree that GNiPs reasoning here is INCREDIBLY shady.

2. There is the possibility that Pod fished a gun and used it.

Concerning 2: that is the only event that I deem possible, were Pod telling the truth. Concerning 1, it is merely a conclusion drawn from days of gut feeling supported by events.

Btw I'm not limiting the research to the Nips, looking at everyone...

16 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

At this point I'm seriously thinking that GNips is a Hutt something. He pretty much fell in line with TheToad the entire day yesterday while supporting TheToad's lies.

As I said, I am pessimistic, and Toad laid out a worst-case scenario for the town - a LYLO situation.

I decided to act on his information of the off-chance that he was at least partially telling the truth, for I desired to bring out a win for town, if it was still possible, and therefore chose to believe his version of events only so far as it laid out the only way for town to win.

With his death, I am somewhat shaken in my faith in the LYLO situation, and in his named targets. However, given the numbers I have laid out above, I am inclined to believe that LYLO is still possible, and as I am to protect against the worst case scenario, thereby staving off all lesser cases as well, I continue to treat LYLO as a probability rather than a possibility. See my post above for a reasoning of my current actions, based on this mindset.

@Onidsen, seeing as you and I are the only non-votes so far, what's your input?

I see the alliances stacking up in the vote.

1 hour ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

Night 1 - No hammer or night kill

Day 2:

Ginkapo - Black Sun Fisherman (Norell)

Night 2:

Ovinomanc3r - TOWN (Drasnighta)

Day 3:

BrobaFett - TOWN (ascetic) Motivator (hammered)

Night 3:

Truthiness - Black Sun Leader (Caldias)

ImperialCaptain2017 - Red Key Leader (Drasnighta)

Day 4:

TheToad - Hutt Encryptor (hammered)

Night 4:

Madaghmire - Black Sun Encryptor (Caldias and then PodRacer claim)

ovi read scum to me, impcap town, toad was bizarre. It looks to me like there's one faction with an amazing evidence tampering role, and to me that's what got us to lylo.

At least one of those black Suns was a townie Imo. I'm struggling to work out how with three cults town can still be in the game at all?

I'm not convinced that the red keys are even real, and the encryptor role magically appeared on day 4 to add symmetry to the already shaky cultists scenario.

Iv used all my powers to get you the Intel, it's a shame it had to fall to the guy who gathers shade as he breathes, but you shoulda seen that coming. We have a single faction enemy Imo. And they are smart about this and have been since they resisted the n1 kill. With mad down 2 people left who could orchestrate such a ploy.

Vote away.

14 minutes ago, PodRacer said:

ovi read scum to me, impcap town, toad was bizarre. It looks to me like there's one faction with an amazing evidence tampering role, and to me that's what got us to lylo.

At least one of those black Suns was a townie Imo. I'm struggling to work out how with three cults town can still be in the game at all?

The problem with your theory is that it is just a guess. I'm not saying you're incorrect, I'm just saying that isn't what we are seeing on the flip, and it seems a little convoluted.

59 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

@Onidsen, seeing as you and I are the only non-votes so far, what's your input?

I see the alliances stacking up in the vote.

Hmm...there's something off here. Is it possible that someone else - a fisherman maybe? - shot pod, and both pod and caldias shot mad. Absolutely, but nobody has brought it up yet.

Somebody's pulling a gambit here, but I don't know who it is. I don't know which of our two claimed killers is lying, of either are. But even if I knew, I don't know how much of a difference it would make. Is one of pod and cal town? Not necessarily - could just be opposing cults.

Frankly, my thoughts are scattered and unclear. I agree that alliances are showing up, but I don't know hours many, if any, are innocents caught up in the drama.

12 hours ago, Caldias said:

Unless there's a third vig in play, or someone else fished a blaster and we both shot Mad, you're lying.

By accidentally correct, I mean that he might have been throwing you, what he thought was a townie, under the bus, but was accidentally actually helping town and pointing to a cultist like he claimed.

40 minutes ago, Onidsen said:

Hmm...there's something off here. Is it possible that someone else - a fisherman maybe? - shot pod, and both pod and caldias shot mad. Absolutely, but nobody has brought it up yet.

Somebody's pulling a gambit here, but I don't know who it is. I don't know which of our two claimed killers is lying, of either are. But even if I knew, I don't know how much of a difference it would make. Is one of pod and cal town? Not necessarily - could just be opposing cults.

Frankly, my thoughts are scattered and unclear. I agree that alliances are showing up, but I don't know hours many, if any, are innocents caught up in the drama.

I actually did mention that very scenario of a fish/third vig, both of us shot mad.

Right now for the rest of you Scummy Cultists traitor McFartyfaces:

Pod/Caldias is the key issue right now. If Pod is lying, then we need to hammer him. If Caldias is lying then we have to hammer him. (Of course deciding on the truth here is the difficulty)

GNIPs: I think GNIps is a cultist.

Norell: Seems to have been following GNiPs and TheToads lead. I'm not sure about him.

Cal/JJ: Definitely in agreement over things. JJ's strength of conviction over Mads at the beginning has me a little troubled. Could he have known about the "encryption" chat?

Me: Surprisingly still Townie McFisherman. (I'm hoping I'm an ascetic and maybe that's kept you cultists off me.)

@Drasnightatime to play. TheToad used the same "game sux" attitude and was lying through his warts. Also used up his Noob defense. Give us something else

Onidsen: I think Onidsen's been lying low. His latest post reads all dramatic. That said, He's the lowest on my cult-scale.

Play what?

I'm town. Just useless beside a vote, since I was 2-shot Vigilante and used them both.

Ergo, I've voted.

I figure just about everyone else is scum. I don't know who to trust, and honestly, I don't really care who believes or disbelieves at this point.

I've got nothing else to add.

I agree that we are likely in a lylo situation ATM but not because of the Hutts.

As I already pointed out, JJ and Caldias are very likely Red Keys. They maybe recruited Dras too since then. Maybe not, it doesn't really matter right now. What matters is that it is very-very-VERY unlikely that the Hutts are in a situation where they can win the game this night.

Just think about it! We didn't even KNOW the Hutt clan existed until Toad claimed! We were shocked enough for having 2 clans and we were busy enough with them. We didn't even consider a third one. If they had only one or two converts away from winning the game why claim at all? Toad could have been silent and see if we lynch someone other than a Hutt. And they could have won the game silently from there. Yet Toad claimed at a point where nobody was even seriously considered as a lynch target, so there was no threat that the Hutts would be revealed by a random lynch.

If the Hutts would have had (is this event he correct grammar?) so many members already they wouldn't have to reveal themselves. I think their idea was this: "OK, we're screwed, let Toad claim leader and that he wants to help the town because we lost. If it doesn't work out, we won't be screwed any more than we are now and at least our leader won't be revealed, leaving a slim chance of actually winning this. If it works out the town will be busy hunting the other clans while we can silently recruit and feed them info about the other clans." Not exactly a win-win situation but one where they don't risk too much but could have won huge.

If the Hutts were in any position to win the game in the next night(s), Toad shouldn't have claimed at all, they could just lay low and see what happens. Clans in a winning position just don't do such thing! if they are about to win there is no point revealing themselves because if we believe them and follow their lead, nothing happens, they still win. But if we don't believe them they lose a member (as they did), drop back in the clan race for majority when there are barely any convertible players left and may become the top target of the other players. Why would anyone do that? Revealing that there is a third clan that is about to win the game is totally senseless, it's a no-win situation for them because they can't gain anything with it.

All in all, it is practically impossible that the Hutts are close to win this game this night even if they managed to recruit someone.

Therefor, I repeat,t he only real threat AT THIS DAY is the Red Key clan. And as they are likely close to win the game, they will try very hard to keep the focus on the Hutts instead of themselves.

5 minutes ago, Norell said:

I agree that we are likely in a lylo situation ATM but not because of the Hutts.

As I already pointed out, JJ and Caldias are very likely Red Keys. They maybe recruited Dras too since then. Maybe not, it doesn't really matter right now. What matters is that it is very-very-VERY unlikely that the Hutts are in a situation where they can win the game this night.

Just think about it! We didn't even KNOW the Hutt clan existed until Toad claimed! We were shocked enough for having 2 clans and we were busy enough with them. We didn't even consider a third one. If they had only one or two converts away from winning the game why claim at all? Toad could have been silent and see if we lynch someone other than a Hutt. And they could have won the game silently from there. Yet Toad claimed at a point where nobody was even seriously considered as a lynch target, so there was no threat that the Hutts would be revealed by a random lynch.

If the Hutts would have had (is this event he correct grammar?) so many members already they wouldn't have to reveal themselves. I think their idea was this: "OK, we're screwed, let Toad claim leader and that he wants to help the town because we lost. If it doesn't work out, we won't be screwed any more than we are now and at least our leader won't be revealed, leaving a slim chance of actually winning this. If it works out the town will be busy hunting the other clans while we can silently recruit and feed them info about the other clans." Not exactly a win-win situation but one where they don't risk too much but could have won huge.

If the Hutts were in any position to win the game in the next night(s), Toad shouldn't have claimed at all, they could just lay low and see what happens. Clans in a winning position just don't do such thing! if they are about to win there is no point revealing themselves because if we believe them and follow their lead, nothing happens, they still win. But if we don't believe them they lose a member (as they did), drop back in the clan race for majority when there are barely any convertible players left and may become the top target of the other players. Why would anyone do that? Revealing that there is a third clan that is about to win the game is totally senseless, it's a no-win situation for them because they can't gain anything with it.

All in all, it is practically impossible that the Hutts are close to win this game this night even if they managed to recruit someone.

Therefor, I repeat,t he only real threat AT THIS DAY is the Red Key clan. And as they are likely close to win the game, they will try very hard to keep the focus on the Hutts instead of themselves.

My point exactly. And for now, Caldias, JJ, and CNinja seem to be those who press the most for lynching Toad, and anyone BUT Caldias (at the moment, Pod).

5 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

My point exactly. And for now, Caldias, JJ, and CNinja seem to be those who press the most for lynching Toad, and anyone BUT Caldias (at the moment, Pod).

????

Toad's dead

I pretty sure he meant Pod.