I agree.
Anyway one thing we forgot is analyzing the vote patterns. I'll try it tomorrow and I'm pretty sure it will uncover something.
[MAFIA] Sands of the New Republic - DAY 1
The only change is, basically, I stopped caring.
##Vote @Drasnighta
I need to analyze the Toad and or setup today.
Dunno if I can deal with your negative waves... again
Take it as serious or use it for motivation, your call.
4 hours ago, Onidsen said:One possibility might be that cults err given x-shot conversions. If it wasn't unlimited, but each cult could only convert 2 or 3 players, that could potentially be balanced.
Other possibility is that an encryptor messes with the alignments of dead players and we've been getting fake info. Hopefully not - that's the type of crazy ability that really should be only played in an open or semi-open setup.
Whats more likely in your opinion oni, 2 cults recruiting each night, or three with x shots or alternate recruitment?
If there is a crazy ability, how likely is today our Lylo?(i never getthis far=))
4 minutes ago, PodRacer said:Whats more likely in your opinion oni, 2 cults recruiting each night, or three with x shots or alternate recruitment?
If there is a crazy ability, how likely is today our Lylo?(i never getthis far=))
We've seen player flips from 3 different cults, so the question to me is 3 cults with continuous recruiting or 3 cults with x-shot or some other restriction. Alternate recruitment is one that hadn't crossed my mind.
I really don't think that 2 cults is a viable theory in light of the observed evidence. Unless you go for the idea that there's something out there that can mess with the alignment reveals of dead players. And that's a tough call. It's barely on the edge of possibility for me - I've seen it once or twice before (specifically - changing the alignment flip; I've seen Janitor-type roles before, but I'm not talking about that), but it's always been announced beforehand. As I said earlier, it's not the sort of thing I'd expect to see in a game without it being an open game. It messes way too much with the expected way to play the game; if you can't trust the alignment flip, then the lynch is much less useful, and you almost have to rely on Town power roles. Course, there's a fair few fishermen, but that's...maybe half of a power role at best.
6 minutes ago, PodRacer said:
Well, I actually don't have many notes, and the stuff I wrote above I just realized a flaw in.
The most any 1 cult can have is 4 right now. The most the Sun can have is 3. If every recruitment was successful, then there would be 11 cultists. As we are only 8 players, we know that that is impossible. I therefore must assume that at least 4 recruitment attempts have gone sour. With 12 total conversion happening so far, that means a 33% fail rate. Assuming some people are aesthetic, like Broba, and the scum targeted themselves, it is possible, but seems rather hard to believe.
Still, that is the necessary numbers for the present moment. That is also worst case for town, best case for cult, and thus the most pessimistic. It is entirely possible that even more recruitments have failed, but also it seems unlikely - 5 failed means a fail rate of nearly 50%, which seems too high.
Therefore, it is more likely that we are at LYLO than not, with Red in the lead, assuming Toad was telling the truth. If he wasn't, then it is a tie between Red and Hutt, with an equal chance of one of them coming out on top tonight. Worst case for town, one of them has 4 players, and wins tonight. Sun is behind, and thus less of a threat. We therefore need to nab a Hutt or a Red in order to be sure of avoiding LYLO, should it be nigh, and to further postpone it, if it is not.
4 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:assuming Toad was telling the truth.
I mean, we KNOW he wasn't telling the truth.
Yeah - I'm on the page of not believing a word Toad said.
1 minute ago, CaribbeanNinja said:I mean, we KNOW he wasn't telling the truth.
We know he wasn't telling the WHOLE truth. It is often mentioned in media sources that lies are made more believable by telling half-truths. Mistrust as I do Toad's words, we must always consider the fact that he may have told some of the truth in his statements, else we blind ourselves to an entire realm of possibilities, and thus may miss the actual truth.
Truth or lie its a good thing for Town,
It certainly made me sit up and start paying attention, I Went over everything the Toad said a few times, because it was such an illogical thing to do. Then I went back over our older games, but couldn't find any evidence of Toad finding away to hide his intentions like hes done in this one. Naming me personally only sent me off on one. I think he knew this sort of thing was my bag baby!
I dont like the math involved in the multi cult setup, And i Cant prove there arent other roles in play that I dont know of, this must be Lylo,
I expected to not wake up this morning having been shot By @Caldias
or at game over with my death being the tipping point, but here I am....
Fishing Wise, iv been very lucky too, gambled on BPvest first two nights when i saw @Drasnighta' intentions, but the shot never came.
Next night I fished Vig, And as if by Fate, Got that too. And when I saw what Mad was up too, using the Toads story To throw negative intent in my direction I took justice into my own hands. No big Speech this time tho, Because I also recieved Notice that My Vest had blocked a shot in the night.
Thats my Townie survival guide to this point. I might not be around much longer to put it out there
##unvote
##vote @Caldias
Lynch all Liars.
That much I know I know.
As for the Toad, i think hes a proper Barsteward for tainting me, but it kicked my *** into gear enough to Get us some important concrete proof of something going into today if i did survive.
And there it is.
Cal I believe you intentions are bad for me and bad for town. If thats even what this game is.
On the bright side, we now are left with the choice of who is lying, Pod or Cal.
ugh, we arent getting into another oranple debate are we? @Drasnighta wont get any sleep.
For the record, I knew exactly how RLBs worked before clarification =)
1 hour ago, PodRacer said:Truth or lie its a good thing for Town,
It certainly made me sit up and start paying attention, I Went over everything the Toad said a few times, because it was such an illogical thing to do. Then I went back over our older games, but couldn't find any evidence of Toad finding away to hide his intentions like hes done in this one. Naming me personally only sent me off on one. I think he knew this sort of thing was my bag baby!
I dont like the math involved in the multi cult setup, And i Cant prove there arent other roles in play that I dont know of, this must be Lylo,
I expected to not wake up this morning having been shot By @Caldias
or at game over with my death being the tipping point, but here I am....
Fishing Wise, iv been very lucky too, gambled on BPvest first two nights when i saw @Drasnighta' intentions, but the shot never came.
Next night I fished Vig, And as if by Fate, Got that too. And when I saw what Mad was up too, using the Toads story To throw negative intent in my direction I took justice into my own hands. No big Speech this time tho, Because I also recieved Notice that My Vest had blocked a shot in the night.
Thats my Townie survival guide to this point. I might not be around much longer to put it out there
##unvote
##vote @Caldias
Lynch all Liars.
That much I know I know.
As for the Toad, i think hes a proper Barsteward for tainting me, but it kicked my *** into gear enough to Get us some important concrete proof of something going into today if i did survive.
And there it is.
Cal I believe you intentions are bad for me and bad for town. If thats even what this game is.
So are you saying I tried to shoot you? Because I didn't, I shot Mads. Don't you think if I was lying about that someone would've stepped up and counterclaimed?
I'm starting to think I might've been wrong, or maybe that Toad was accidentally right about you.
@PodRacerwhy did it take you 6 hours to counter claim you shot Madaghmire?
Oh wow, he is really counter claiming? Is that what he means by taking justice in his own hands? Okay, well I know he's full of it, so this makes my vote easy.
##vote PodRacer
Happy to answer any questions and I'll check periodically, but barring some grand revelation, my vote is staying.
That is what im saying yes.
I did counterclaim, its all i have to show for the last week of my life playing this game. Unless someone else claims to have shot at me, then im prone to believe it was you.
I Killed mad, i nearly killed you instead but it seemed like you werent the 'leader' as the narrative was going and i thought maybe he must have forgot he wasnt messaging anonymously when he wrote that is all i can think.
Again if theres 3 cults, which i can't prove either way It felt like you and him where in cahoots. I felt like the game was ending and Mads reveal gave town more information.
I dont know what you mean by accidently right about me? If we were playing ball, which we werent, theres no way hes pitching,
And if im cult leader cruising under the radar im not going to suddenly reveal myself and my voicebox in 2 days straight am I? I really dont know what toad was saying. If he wanted me to believe the cult(s) story? maybe i do, the proofs all there. then im irrelevant as town anyway. Unless the ascetic thing applies to me, again, theres nothing in my role pm, im a plain old fisherman who got lucky as far as i know.
If the scum can manipulate the bodys of the deceased, good for them, they got me good. Either way i copped a bullet, as town, and you dunnit, then lied about killing mad. Im the only one who knows this And thats what im saying.
@CaribbeanNinja Part RL, worked til 10pm so couldnt be super active after the restart, then there was a period of wondering if i should even say anything, and see how it developed, unfortunately i dont think i can afford the same slack at lylo that iv given Dras so far say If this is towns final stand. (obviously dras is a close second on my scum list)
Theres a few that tick my boxes, lets just get todays lynch right.
1 hour ago, PodRacer said:That is what im saying yes.
I did counterclaim, its all i have to show for the last week of my life playing this game. Unless someone else claims to have shot at me, then im prone to believe it was you.
I Killed mad, i nearly killed you instead but it seemed like you werent the 'leader' as the narrative was going and i thought maybe he must have forgot he wasnt messaging anonymously when he wrote that is all i can think.
Again if theres 3 cults, which i can't prove either way It felt like you and him where in cahoots. I felt like the game was ending and Mads reveal gave town more information.
I dont know what you mean by accidently right about me? If we were playing ball, which we werent, theres no way hes pitching,
And if im cult leader cruising under the radar im not going to suddenly reveal myself and my voicebox in 2 days straight am I? I really dont know what toad was saying. If he wanted me to believe the cult(s) story? maybe i do, the proofs all there. then im irrelevant as town anyway. Unless the ascetic thing applies to me, again, theres nothing in my role pm, im a plain old fisherman who got lucky as far as i know.
If the scum can manipulate the bodys of the deceased, good for them, they got me good. Either way i copped a bullet, as town, and you dunnit, then lied about killing mad. Im the only one who knows this And thats what im saying.
@CaribbeanNinja Part RL, worked til 10pm so couldnt be super active after the restart, then there was a period of wondering if i should even say anything, and see how it developed, unfortunately i dont think i can afford the same slack at lylo that iv given Dras so far say If this is towns final stand. (obviously dras is a close second on my scum list)
Theres a few that tick my boxes, lets just get todays lynch right.
Unless there's a third vig in play, or someone else fished a blaster and we both shot Mad, you're lying.
By accidentally correct, I mean that he might have been throwing you, what he thought was a townie, under the bus, but was accidentally actually helping town and pointing to a cultist like he claimed.
Considering Cal's first shot wasn't counter claimed, and was very pro-town, I'm inclined to believe him over Pod (though I appreciate Pod speaking plainly!!).
##vote PodRacer
Me too!
Guess we really are the unpopular kids!!
Im hoping Cal Makes three of us if Mad was his kill?
@Caldias ?
Im not happy with you guys for Voting me,
but i get it. I suppose.
I also have a theory about how the scum may have been operating in this one, although my wiki-fu is weak, is it possible the scum could be responsible for What we see when a body is Identified? eg they created the 3 cult factions to keep us guessing in the dark? Is there a role that would allow this?
10 hours ago, Caldias said:Yes, Mad was me. He was asking to join cults a little too often, which piqued my suspicion, and TheToad was giving half truths, so I took a chance and thought he might've been lying about you, Pod. I hope I'm right, but ****, there are still leaders out there.
7 hours ago, PodRacer said:Did the wiki turn up any such role as the one i speculated?
6 hours ago, PodRacer said:Is this you coming out of the closet as not town alligned @Drasnighta?
Youve literally walked into every trap iv laid since D1, And your input into the last two days is....
unique...
6 hours ago, PodRacer said:##Vote @Drasnighta
I need to analyze the Toad and or setup today.
Dunno if I can deal with your negative waves... again
Take it as serious or use it for motivation, your call.
5 hours ago, PodRacer said:Whats more likely in your opinion oni, 2 cults recruiting each night, or three with x shots or alternate recruitment?
If there is a crazy ability, how likely is today our Lylo?(i never getthis far=))
5 hours ago, PodRacer said:
4 hours ago, PodRacer said:Truth or lie its a good thing for Town,
It certainly made me sit up and start paying attention, I Went over everything the Toad said a few times, because it was such an illogical thing to do. Then I went back over our older games, but couldn't find any evidence of Toad finding away to hide his intentions like hes done in this one. Naming me personally only sent me off on one. I think he knew this sort of thing was my bag baby!
I dont like the math involved in the multi cult setup, And i Cant prove there arent other roles in play that I dont know of, this must be Lylo,
I expected to not wake up this morning having been shot By @Caldias
or at game over with my death being the tipping point, but here I am....
Fishing Wise, iv been very lucky too, gambled on BPvest first two nights when i saw @Drasnighta' intentions, but the shot never came.
Next night I fished Vig, And as if by Fate, Got that too. And when I saw what Mad was up too, using the Toads story To throw negative intent in my direction I took justice into my own hands. No big Speech this time tho, Because I also recieved Notice that My Vest had blocked a shot in the night.
Thats my Townie survival guide to this point. I might not be around much longer to put it out there
##unvote
##vote @Caldias
Lynch all Liars.
That much I know I know.
As for the Toad, i think hes a proper Barsteward for tainting me, but it kicked my *** into gear enough to Get us some important concrete proof of something going into today if i did survive.
And there it is.
Cal I believe you intentions are bad for me and bad for town. If thats even what this game is.
This is another interesting tidbit. You ask if I killed Mad, and I answer, and you go on to post a bunch of other stuff and suddenly concoct this elaborate fish tale, switching votes with the quickness? Yeah, not buying it.
Yes, I didnt want to prejudice your answer, or coerce you into revealing more and having it look like i lead you. Like i said i was fishing for info.
And maybe if Dras liked me better i would have revealed sooner, but his unquestioned 'standard play' of throwing shade at me unchecked continues to confuse me, and waste time. Coupled with the fact im really hazy on the setup and not sure if I trust anybody right now.
What i know is your claiming my kill, unless we did both kill him..... but thats about as likely as a mysterious third cult faction appearing out of thin air, and it being true in my books. Too good to be true. The fact it came before Mad told you to kill me only serves to fuel my suspicion.
Throwing Toad shade at me as well. Not gonna stick.
Im only semi convinced on theToads last stand, and his reveal are truthful. Maybe the scum gave us a pity lynch. Knowing they could frame his reveal any way they liked. And a third faction really was the nail in the coffin for sanity in this game. And I would be a simple push the next day.
Im seriously thinking this is it for town
And JJ cant be that town either if he would vote me so casually.
Someone (or all of you!!) didnt want me to be in the game today.
@PodRacer why don't you believe in a third faction? We've seen dead players from 3 cults.
18 minutes ago, PodRacer said:Yes, I didnt want to prejudice your answer, or coerce you into revealing more and having it look like i lead you. Like i said i was fishing for info.
And maybe if Dras liked me better i would have revealed sooner, but his unquestioned 'standard play' of throwing shade at me unchecked continues to confuse me, and waste time. Coupled with the fact im really hazy on the setup and not sure if I trust anybody right now.
What i know is your claiming my kill, unless we did both kill him..... but thats about as likely as a mysterious third cult faction appearing out of thin air, and it being true in my books. Too good to be true. The fact it came before Mad told you to kill me only serves to fuel my suspicion.
Throwing Toad shade at me as well. Not gonna stick.
Im only semi convinced on theToads last stand, and his reveal are truthful. Maybe the scum gave us a pity lynch. Knowing they could frame his reveal any way they liked. And a third faction really was the nail in the coffin for sanity in this game. And I would be a simple push the next day.
Im seriously thinking this is it for town
And JJ cant be that town either if he would vote me so casually.
Someone (or all of you!!) didnt want me to be in the game today.
Buddy, if you were fishing, you wouldn't have voted for Dras and did all this weird smoke-and-mirror play. If you wanted to help town, you would've immediately revealed this information. Why didn't you? Because it's not true, and you're not trying to help town,