With 8 left, we must have hit one scum otherwise it would be game over now?

Interesting. Still town here. I'm guessing that only cult leaders can convert. Good call caldias, if that kill was yours.

Yes, Mad was me. He was asking to join cults a little too often, which piqued my suspicion, and TheToad was giving half truths, so I took a chance and thought he might've been lying about you, Pod. I hope I'm right, but ****, there are still leaders out there.

2 minutes ago, PodRacer said:

With 8 left, we must have hit one scum otherwise it would be game over now?

Im guessing no true scum. Im guessing thats why no N1 kill. just three cults which is ridiculous in itself.

Or fisherman scum? Not sure.

im at work now, but il be home in 4 hours or so and we can crunch notepads

Welp, this means I can throw out all of my calculations. I thought that if we fail to lynch a Red Key we lose. Apparently I was wrong.

So the Reds either failed to recruit someone at least once or Toad lied about being two cult members at the beginning (which would also at least partially clear Pod). Black sun is likely down to 1 or even 0 but I'm still concerned about the Reds. They very well may have 3 members right now and if they still can recruit they may win the game the next night unless we lynch one of them. Not a real fan of possible LYLO situations but I'm liking more the town chances now.

One possibility might be that cults err given x-shot conversions. If it wasn't unlimited, but each cult could only convert 2 or 3 players, that could potentially be balanced.

Other possibility is that an encryptor messes with the alignments of dead players and we've been getting fake info. Hopefully not - that's the type of crazy ability that really should be only played in an open or semi-open setup.

According to the Wiki: " An Encryptor is a role that allows people who can converse with it to talk during the Day phase. Otherwise, they are restricted to speaking during the Night phase."

This role makes sense only if Mad was a member of a cult form the beginning, otherwise he would have a role that would have make no sense. And he would have mention something like that for sure. So here are two logical conclusions based on this:

1) There were 2 members of each cult at the beginning of the game (sorry Pod, you're back on the list)

2) Cult leader title is not hereditary otherwise Mad should have been the new leader of Black Sun (so... yeah... Pod, that kind of takes you off the list again...?)

Nevermind. I just looked up encryptor on the wiki, and apparently it lets scum daytalk.

That supports the "2 starting players per cult" idea. Have a leader and an encryptor. If it wasn't limited conversion though, I don't know how we've gotten to the point we have with so many apparent town left

Ninja'ed by Norell

Hahaha!! Well I hate to be that guy, but guess who was right about Mad...pegged Mad day one, no one listened, except Cal I guess.

Also, It's highly concerning that Toad was lying about being the cult leader. It makes his play seem more clever than actually just being upset about the game. The question is then, who is the Hutt leader? I'm not sure if I'm clearing Pod because of Toad's other lies, or if it could have been a cult day-chatting to keep the leader safe.

14 minutes ago, JJs Juggernaut said:

Hahaha!! Well I hate to be that guy, but guess who was right about Mad...pegged Mad day one, no one listened, except Cal I guess.

Also, It's highly concerning that Toad was lying about being the cult leader. It makes his play seem more clever than actually just being upset about the game. The question is then, who is the Hutt leader? I'm not sure if I'm clearing Pod because of Toad's other lies, or if it could have been a cult day-chatting to keep the leader safe.

My guess is GNips.

On 9/13/2017 at 2:29 AM, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

We know that agents can be turned - look at Gink.

Holy Moly. 3 cults now???

Caldias has a point that eliminating Toad saves us from another cult, but I am inclined to agree with Norell above that targeting the more established cults makes more sense as it prolongs the game in favor of a Town win. If Toad truly is just 1, then he can't affect the game, really, as Town outvotes him, so we can beat him. We need to focus on lynching the other cultists, as they could control the vote. If he just targets suspects, and reports them unrecruitable, we could lynch them, and limit the other cults (though we'd have to take his reports with a grain of salt (or a fistful) I think he may very well be an exasperated player, and thus telling the truth).

So really what that boils down to is that I am inclined to believe Toad at the moment, and thus am looking at JJ or Cal to lynch.

Same "Truthiness" response to the idea that there are three cults.

Hmm, an interesting case for now. I think I need to do a large review of the game and see what shakes out with the current death flips. I'll be too busy to do that until this evening though.

33 minutes ago, Norell said:

Welp, this means I can throw out all of my calculations. I thought that if we fail to lynch a Red Key we lose. Apparently I was wrong.

So the Reds either failed to recruit someone at least once or Toad lied about being two cult members at the beginning (which would also at least partially clear Pod). Black sun is likely down to 1 or even 0 but I'm still concerned about the Reds. They very well may have 3 members right now and if they still can recruit they may win the game the next night unless we lynch one of them. Not a real fan of possible LYLO situations but I'm liking more the town chances now.

I too am surprised. I thought yesterday was LYLO for us. Clearly not.

Well, that makes the reckoning:

Hutts: 1 down at least 1 to go.
Sun: 3 down x to go
Red: 1 down, at least 1 to go.

Assuming that each cult started with a leader and encryptor, the Hitts have lost their encryptor, so have at least their Leader left. Black Sun lost all three of their original members - Leader, Encryptor, Night 1 Recruit. Red lost their leader..

So the Hutts have their Leader and nights 1, 2, 3, and 4 recruits, assuming there were any.
Sun have their nights 2, 3, and 4 recruits, assuming there were any.
Red have their Encryptor and nights 1, 2, 3, and 4 recruits, assuming there were any.

Therefore Black Sun is the weakest, at a maximum of 3, and the Hutts and Reds are tied with a maximum of 5. I am still inclined to believe that Toad was at least telling the partial truth about Hutt numbers, because he wasn't suspected ad if he was ahead, why bring it up? It only cost him his life, and thus his cult the potential lead. However, it is entirely possible that he was lying about that too, for it seems he lied about everything else.

Caldias we now know is most certainly not Black Sun. He may however be Hutt (unlikely, given Toad's actions) or Red. Maybe even still Town? JJ is unlikely to beSun, as he attacked Mad, but that could have been an intentional thing to put distance between them. Unlikely though. Dras is certainly not Red, but may be any of the other 3 alignments. Pod is unlikely to be Hutt, given that Toad lied about everything else, but then again that could have been a double-bluff. Nobody else's actions really tie them down to a faction.

We have 8 players left, and thus 5 to hammer. That means that the maximum for any cult to have is 4, else it would have won now.

16 minutes ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

Same "Truthiness" response to the idea that there are three cults.

How so? He just said 'please no'. I indicated my reaction to three cults, and then tried to make sense of the situation, and gave an opinion.

1 hour ago, Onidsen said:

I'm guessing that only cult leaders can convert.

Rather a large jump to make, no? Just because you claim not to be converted, they don't pass on their title (that is what you saying, right?)? I think it means that at best they might not pass on their title, but that it's more likely that they didn't target you.

##Vote PodRacer

2 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

##Vote PodRacer

You believe Toad then?

Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

You believe Toad then?

No.

I just don't like Pod.

33 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Rather a large jump to make, no? Just because you claim not to be converted, they don't pass on their title (that is what you saying, right?)? I think it means that at best they might not pass on their title, but that it's more likely that they didn't target you.

Hm...maybe. But I was more than halfway convinced that the conversion didn't pass on before the end of the day yesterday.

Under your estimation, 3 cult leaders with no interruption in conversion abilities have still somehow managed to leave town players after 4 night cycles. 12 conversions on 11 non-cult leader players? And 2 of those starting players were town when they died. And if each cult did indeed start with a cult leader and an encryptor, like I suspect, the numbers get even worse. In that case, out of 6 non-cult starting players that could have been converts (IE - not including ovi or Broba), 12 conversions still leaves a town player left? That's an awfully large stretch of my imagination. Even if we assume one or two got eaten up by Broba's ascetic ability, it's still an awfully large stretch.

Could possibly mean that 2 tried to convert at the same time and that cancelled out (but I'm not even sure that's how it works. As far as I know, all we have is Toad's assertion about the first order getting priority; and I trust anything coming from Toad about as far as I can throw it.)

I suppose another possibility is that I'm ascetic without knowing it. I'm a Fisherman, so I don't find it likely - Gink was a fisherman who got converted, so I expect I can be converted too. If not, then my whole analysis is flawed.

3 minutes ago, Onidsen said:

Hm...maybe. But I was more than halfway convinced that the conversion didn't pass on before the end of the day yesterday.

Under your estimation, 3 cult leaders with no interruption in conversion abilities have still somehow managed to leave town players after 4 night cycles. 12 conversions on 11 non-cult leader players? And 2 of those starting players were town when they died. And if each cult did indeed start with a cult leader and an encryptor, like I suspect, the numbers get even worse. In that case, out of 6 non-cult starting players that could have been converts (IE - not including ovi or Broba), 12 conversions still leaves a town player left? That's an awfully large stretch of my imagination. Even if we assume one or two got eaten up by Broba's ascetic ability, it's still an awfully large stretch.

Could possibly mean that 2 tried to convert at the same time and that cancelled out (but I'm not even sure that's how it works. As far as I know, all we have is Toad's assertion about the first order getting priority; and I trust anything coming from Toad about as far as I can throw it.)

I suppose another possibility is that I'm ascetic without knowing it. I'm a Fisherman, so I don't find it likely - Gink was a fisherman who got converted, so I expect I can be converted too. If not, then my whole analysis is flawed.

Another possibility is that cult targeted members of another cult, like say Imp Cap targeted Mad or Truthi.

I know the numbers aren't good and don't make sense at first, but it is something we have to consider, given the possibilities. What are the odds that of three growing cults, no leader targeted another's members?

3 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Another possibility is that cult targeted members of another cult, like say Imp Cap targeted Mad or Truthi.

I know the numbers aren't good and don't make sense at first, but it is something we have to consider, given the possibilities. What are the odds that of three growing cults, no leader targeted another's members?

Fair enough - I had accounted for multiple conversions on the non-cult players, but forgot to include the cult leaders and encryptors on the list of possible multiple conversions. That changes things. Still bad, but not unbelievable.

We can assume that any cult, not knowing about the others tried to grab the players they thought the strongest as early as possible. So traditionally good and insightful players like Gink, JJ, Mad, Truthi could be likely targets for any cult. And if every cult leader thinks the same, it is very likely that they all will try to convert the same man at some point, resulting in a failed attempt. So maybe, just MAYBE not even the Reds have enough men to win the next day. I still think we should try to catch one of them just to be sure.

Did the wiki turn up any such role as the one i speculated?

2 hours ago, Drasnighta said:

No.

I just don't like Pod.

Is this you coming out of the closet as not town alligned @Drasnighta?

Youve literally walked into every trap iv laid since D1, And your input into the last two days is....

unique...