OK, here’s something I put together prior to the last wave coming out and have just recently updated with wave 6. I’ll admit that it doesn’t have the statistical rigor that some would desire but I have neither the time nor the expertise to do that. My statistical knowledge ended with the statistics class I took in college (which I really enjoyed BTW). I also am an Imp, i.e. an Imperial player, and therefore have that ingrained bias though I try to put that aside. The folks I play with always hear my cries of “REBEL BIAS” that I light heartedly throw around. But I wanted to answer more definitively if there was a significant imbalance. There is a lot more that should go into a complete analysis but this is probably a good start.

In my analysis, I looked at very basic comparisons. I get down to some averages and try to determine which faction has the advantage in a given category. I’ll probably break some of these up into some separate posts so the post isn’t so long. My comments are my own and are there to generate conversation. Please don’t get confrontational or angry, it’s just a game of tiny spaceships. Oh, and I unfortunately will probably take a long time to answer questions.

Let’s start with commanders and faction specific upgrades

Before we get into this, let’s look at a cost/benefit relationship for upgrades/abilities. I didn’t evaluate how “good, bad, effective” an upgrade actually is. There are obviously some that are better than others. I looked at how abilities’ cost and benefits relate and broke them into 3 categories: sacrificial, conditional and free. Sacrificial abilities are those that require a sacrifice of some sort. Darth Vader, Devastator would be examples of sacrificial upgrades. Conditionals are those that require something to happen (e.g. spend a die) to get the benefit; most upgrades fall into this category. Free is . . . well, free. That is to say, you don’t spend anything beyond the fleet points. You want fewer sacrificials and conditionals and more free upgrades.

With that said, both factions have the same number of commanders. Imperial commanders have the lowest average cost at 26.56 compared to 29.89 for the Rebs. The Emperor’s flag officers also have more free abilities (2:1) and fewer conditional leaders (4:7). However, of particular note is the ratio of sacrificial commanders: the Empire has 3 (Vader, Jerjerrod, and Tagge) whilst the Alliance only has 1 (Rieekan). So, why Tagge and Rieekan? To get Tagge’s benefit, you must take the risk of playing aggressively (usually) and burning defense tokens. Rieekan requires you lose a named squadron or ship before you get benefit from his points. Don’t burn tokens? Don’t lose ships? Then you really didn’t get the benefit of that commander. So, the Imperials probably win the commander category but with a heavy imbalance on the sacrificial subcategory.

Faction specific upgrades are next and this is composed primarily of the officer upgrades but also covers experimental and fleet command upgrades. The Empire is clearly the winner in this category. Imps have 13 compared to the Reb’s 12 and are also cheaper on average (4.46:5.33). There are also fewer sacrificial and more free Imperial upgrades than Rebel (0:1 and 4:1 respectively) and fewer conditional (9:10). On to the backbones of the fleets, capital ships.

Rebels have 9 ships, Imps have 8. Imps with 1 large, 3 med and 3 small. Rebs have 2 large, 1 med and 5 small. Combined cost for all Imps ships 1060, Rebs 1130. The average cost per type comes out to 132.5 Imp, 125.56 for Rebs. Average cost per ship is 66.25 Imp, 62.78 for Rebs. In this category, the Rebs seem to be the winner. They have more ships to choose from and the ships are cheaper on average both by type and by ship. I agree that Rebs should have many more ships than the Imps but the Imps should have more variants of a particular class of ship. The costs of ships seem wrong also. Rebs should have cheaper small ships and Imps should have cheaper large ships. It’s interesting that Rebs have any large ships given their decentralized command and logistics structure. But then, what would that do for gameplay?

Ship titles analysis has a bit more subjectivity as you’ll see. The Rebs are the winner again in this category and pretty handily. 22 Reb titles vs 18 Imp titles but of course they have more ships. But, when you average those out, they still win with an average of 1.22 titles per ship vs 1.13 for the Empire. Average cost per title was 4.95 points for Rebs and 5.0 for Imps. Rebs have only one sacrificial title to the Imp’s 2 a rate of 0.05 and 0.11 respectively. Rebs win again in the conditional category with a lower average of 0.63 to Imp’s 0.72. They also take the “Free” category with 7 titles (avg 0.32) to the stingy Imp value of 3 titles (0.17). The latest wave did a lot to improve the Imperial stats in the title category but the Rebels still came out ahead.

Ship stats produced some very interesting insights that I’ll have to break into defensive, maneuver, command and offensive subcategories. First is defensive; hull and shield points. This category actually came out slightly tilted in favor of the Alliance but had some results I didn’t expect. The Empire has, on average, better HP at 6.38 per ship (to Reb 5.33) and the Rebs have a better SP average (8.89 to Imp’s 8.25). Nothing surprising there and the cost to replace shields vs HP is the primary reason Rebs are slightly ahead in this category. What is interesting is if you break down HP/SP by fleet point cost. For HP, Rebs come out behind with 0.085 HP/point to the Imp’s 0.096. Rebs win the SP/points with 0.142 to Imp's 0.125. Something to consider is the slight advantage the Empire has in average engineering points per ship: 3.13. The Rebels average out only slightly less at 3.11/ship.

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Rebel Scum (ooops, bias hahaha) outmaneuver the Galactic Empire both in average speed and average maneuverability. Speed was measured by the max speed of each ship and maneuverability was measured by tallying all the tick marks for each ship at each speed (i.e. how well does the ship turn). Rebel ships have an average speed of 3.0 to the Imperial stat of 2.88. Turning ability shows a more significant delta: 6.33 ticks per Rebel ship to 5.63 ticks per Imperial vessel.

The Galactic Empire’s military education system, logistical system and technical prowess reap benefits with regard to command ability. Ideally, one desires fewer command points and higher squadron and higher engineering points. The Empire wins all three of the command attributes (some just barely). They average 2, 2.44, and 3.13 for command, squadron, and engineering respectively. The Rebels average out at 2, 1.83 and 3.11.

Now, the awesome part . . . FIIII-EERRR POOOWWWW-EERRRR! This was broken down into anti-ship or battery (BTRY) and anti-fighter, what we’ll affectionately call anti-aircraft or AA. Those then are broken down by die color, i.e. effective range. It’s interesting to look at this in both total dice available and average per ship. Starting with the long range turbolasers (i.e. red dice), the Rebs come out ahead. All of their vessels possess 96 total red dice with an average of 5.33 per ship. The Empire possesses a total of 75 total and an average of 4.69, almost a full die less. The Empire takes the lead in Ion Cannons (Med range), but just barely. Imps muster 68 total to the Reb’s 67 but average out at 4.25 to the Reb’s 3.72 per ship. Ordnance is a more pronounced lead for Palp’s forces. Forty-one total dice for an average of 2.56 per ship to Mon Mothma’s 25/1.39. When you look at total battery combined, the Rebels have more dice overall with 188 to 184 but the Imperials have a slight advantage when averaged out at 11.5 per ship to 10.44 for Rebs. Overall, I’d probably have to say the Empire has a slight advantage on the face of this analysis. However, you’ll see in a bit how that might not be the case.

When it comes to blasting those stunt fighters, it’s a bit of a mixed bag but probably should also go to the Empire. Total AA is a repeat of battery with Rebs having more total AA (24:22) but the Imps having a slight advantage on average (1.38:1.33). Of course the new Quasar is the only ship with long range AA. Med range AA goes to the Rebs with 17/0.94 (total/avg) and Imps coming in close at 14/0.88. The Empire is the leader with close range AA 7/0.5 to 7/0.39 for Alliance forces.

So, on its face, the Empire leads in raw firepower . . . that seems about right. But, when you factor in other ship statistics, primarily speed and maneuverability, the Empire comes out the loser. It’s obvious the Empire needs to close with the enemy in order to get the full effect of their superior firepower. Unfortunately, their ships are slower and less maneuverable and therefore are hampered in doing so. Additionally, the large difference in long range firepower (96:75!!!) means the Rebels are achieving more opportunities to shoot than are the Imps in any given engagement. The same can be said for AA firepower in that the Rebs will be engaging (i.e. more chances to throw dice) before the Imps.

There is a lot of analyses when it comes to squadrons. These have been broken down into three basic categories: Core stats (cost, HP, speed, etc.), Firepower (dice brotha, dice), and keywords. I didn’t take a look at abilities (i.e. free, sacrificial, and conditional). BLUF: Imps take the core stats but Rebs dominate in firepower and keywords.

Both factions have the same number of generic and ace squadrons. Hit Points goes to Rebs with 63 to the Imp’s 62. That averages out to 5.25:5.17 HP per squadron type. The average cost of an Imp ace is lower (17.57) than a Reb ace (18.67) but Reb generics win with an average cost of 13.08 to the Imp average generic cost of 14. Imp TIE tech makes for faster squadrons with a total combined speed of 129 to a Rebel speed of 108. Averaged, that comes out to 3.91:3.27 Imp:Reb. So Imps have faster squadrons with cheaper aces whilst Rebs have cheaper generics and slower units.

Firepower is a many-faceted monster. There are so many variances of dice that squadrons throw. There is the AA dice, the battery dice and then bomber dice. Then of course, there are the different colors of dice which don’t equate to range like the ship dice but, rather, relate to chances of causing damage. Overall, Rebs win mightily in squadron firepower. They dominate AA firepower throwing a total of 105 dice with an average of 3.18 per squadron. By comparison, Imps have 99 and average at 3.0. When you break out anti-ship armament, interestingly, both factions are throwing the same number of dice with the same averages. Breaking it down, battery dice are a bit of a mixed bag. Rebs have the better average (1.36 to Imp’s 1.24) but Imps have a whopping 31 to the Reb’s 15 battery dice. Huge imbalance, right? Not when you look at the bomber dice. The Rebs lag in battery because they possess so many bomber capable squadrons. Alliance squadrons throw a total of 28 dice to the Empire’s 12 (more than double). However, interestingly, Imperial bomber squadrons average 1.5 dice per to the Alliance’s 1.27 per bomber squadron. I’m not going to go into the details here (because frankly, I think I’m putting you to sleep), but when you break all of the firepower into total colored dice and average number per squadron, you get 18 divisions to conduct comparison. Out of those 18, the Rebs take 12 (67%) leaving the Empire with 6. Maybe I’ll post that detailed breakout later.

Squadron keywords is the final element of comparison (aren’t you glad?). I tallied these using aces and generics separately. For example, Rebs have 3 swarm (2 aces and a generic). For keywords that add effects or have range, those values were tallied together. Imperial relay of 4 would be a great example for that (2 for generic shuttle, 2 for COL Jendon). Counter, Snipe and Relay fall into this tally method. Out of the 12 keywords, the Rebs win in 7 of those, the Imps take 3 and there is a tie for 2. I’ll list the keywords each faction wins then discuss some observations. Rebel Alliance: Counter-13, Bomber-22, Snipe-7, Rogue-9, Intel-2, Grit-6, and Heavy-4. Galactic Empire: Swarm-11, Relay-4, Cloak-2. Counter is the first interesting comparison. The Imps, if you count Dengar and Howlrunner, would take this category and so I rated them at 12++ but the effect isn’t present if they aren’t in range so I counted this as a Rebel win. Bias? Bomber is a HUGE imbalance. The Imps have 14 fewer bomber squadrons (8) than do the Rebs (22). This gives the Rebs a tremendous amount of flexibility in tailoring squadron packages. Additionally, why doesn’t the Decimator have bomber? Intel was given to the Rebs although both factions have an equal rating of 2. I did this because the HWK has counter which is better than swarm IMHO. Imps have almost double the heavy squadrons than do the Rebs (7:4). Interesting to me is the fact that neither the B-wing nor the generic YT1300 have Heavy whilst the TIE Bomber and Decimator do. Maybe it’s an apples and oranges conversation but I feel this was an oversight perhaps. Escort and strategic are tied though Rebel escorts do more than just escort (XW comes to mind) making them very versatile. Imps win big in Swarm, relay and cloak, however, we can have a separate discussion on exactly how effective/useful cloak really is.

To summarize, the Empire takes commanders and faction upgrades and the Alliance wins ships and squadrons. Overall, I’m going to say that the advantage lies with the Rebel fleet. Is that on purpose on the part of game devs? Probably not, however, bias doesn’t need to be deliberate in order to exist and influence the game. After all, don’t we have a natural tendency to see the good guy win?

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1 hour ago, WGNF911 said:

Let’s start with commanders and faction specific upgrades

Before we get into this, let’s look at a cost/benefit relationship for upgrades/abilities. I didn’t evaluate how “good, bad, effective” an upgrade actually is. There are obviously some that are better than others. I looked at how abilities’ cost and benefits relate and broke them into 3 categories: sacrificial, conditional and free. Sacrificial abilities are those that require a sacrifice of some sort. Darth Vader, Devastator would be examples of sacrificial upgrades. Conditionals are those that require something to happen (e.g. spend a die) to get the benefit; most upgrades fall into this category. Free is . . . well, free. That is to say, you don’t spend anything beyond the fleet points. You want fewer sacrificials and conditionals and more free upgrades.

With that said, both factions have the same number of commanders. Imperial commanders have the lowest average cost at 26.56 compared to 29.89 for the Rebs. The Emperor’s flag officers also have more free abilities (2:1) and fewer conditional leaders (4:7). However, of particular note is the ratio of sacrificial commanders: the Empire has 3 (Vader, Jerjerrod, and Tagge) whilst the Alliance only has 1 (Rieekan). So, why Tagge and Rieekan? To get Tagge’s benefit, you must take the risk of playing aggressively (usually) and burning defense tokens. Rieekan requires you lose a named squadron or ship before you get benefit from his points. Don’t burn tokens? Don’t lose ships? Then you really didn’t get the benefit of that commander. So, the Imperials probably win the commander category but with a heavy imbalance on the sacrificial subcategory.

First thank you, very interesting especially the snub fighters cost. One question/thought I believe (as I do not play the Scum Rebels) I do not know for sure, but is the only commander (Moff Jerjerrod) who does damage to there own fleet in the Empire, how does that factor in?

10 minutes ago, CDAT said:

First thank you, very interesting especially the snub fighters cost. One question/thought I believe (as I do not play the Scum Rebels) I do not know for sure, but is the only commander (Moff Jerjerrod) who does damage to there own fleet in the Empire, how does that factor in?

Technically, Vader also does damage. Jerjerrod's damage is entirely to the shields. So the impact is dependent on if those shields are being repaired or not.

Thanks for working through all this, I'll try to have a more comprehensive response in daylight hours. Could I trouble you to add a BLUF to every section? Really helped me follow the squads break down. I'm also going to ask, as I have on similar threads before, for you to add standard deviations everywhere you have averages. The big one I'm eyeballing is generics cost. Rebels seem right but Imps seem high. Could you add the figures there without R&V (for both sides), and for my curiosity without the VT-49? I'm curious how much effect they have.

6 hours ago, thecactusman17 said:

Technically, Vader also does damage. Jerjerrod's damage is entirely to the shields. So the impact is dependent on if those shields are being repaired or not.

Vader does not do damage he is covered under the "sacrificial upgrades" and was not talking about how much impact it has I was just wondering how that factored into his information. I missed it on my first read through, but he lists him also under the "sacrificial upgrades" I would be interested in see what commanders he places in each category. IE who are the free I am guessing Tarkin and Motti for the Empire and Leia for the Rebels, as we know the "sacrificial upgrades" all the rest are the "conditional leaders", but just want to make sure I am on the same page as he is. I am also unclear what he is including in the "Faction specific upgrades" it sounds like he is including thing that right now only one faction can use, but are not limited to that faction by symbol just that they are the only faction with a ship that can use it right now. If that is the case I can not really argue against it, as yes only that faction can use it, but at the same time it is not really just for that faction as the next wave may give a ship for the other side to be able to use it. If that happens it will drastically change things, so I guess bottom line I am gong to second

5 hours ago, GiledPallaeon said:

Thanks for working through all this, I'll try to have a more comprehensive response in daylight hours. Could I trouble you to add a BLUF to every section? Really helped me follow the squads break down. I'm also going to ask, as I have on similar threads before, for you to add standard deviations everywhere you have averages. The big one I'm eyeballing is generics cost. Rebels seem right but Imps seem high. Could you add the figures there without R&V (for both sides), and for my curiosity without the VT-49? I'm curious how much effect they have.

I really like what you have done, but some of the thoughts behind it are escaping me so more information would be nice. But once again thank you for what you have done.

8 hours ago, WGNF911 said:

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Rebel Scum (ooops, bias hahaha) outmaneuver the Galactic Empire both in average speed and average maneuverability. Speed was measured by the max speed of each ship and maneuverability was measured by tallying all the tick marks for each ship at each speed (i.e. how well does the ship turn). Rebel ships have an average speed of 3.0 to the Imperial stat of 2.88. Turning ability shows a more significant delta: 6.33 ticks per Rebel ship to 5.63 ticks per Imperial vessel.

Isn't this a bit skewed? If you count total in all speeds, then naturally faster ships will seem more maneuverable, for their will be more ticks to count. I don't know how you would measure it alternatively though. . . maybe only count ticks and speed per base size? That may keep it more related. 'Cause really, as a Vic can't go speed 3, it is only natural that the Whale will be more maneuverable at speed 3. And in large bases, the ISD is the most maneuverable, being equal to the HMC80 and having more ticks than the LMC80.

16 minutes ago, CDAT said:

Vader does not do damage he is covered under the "sacrificial upgrades" and was not talking about how much impact it has I was just wondering how that factored into his information. I missed it on my first read through, but he lists him also under the "sacrificial upgrades" I would be interested in see what commanders he places in each category. IE who are the free I am guessing Tarkin and Motti for the Empire and Leia for the Rebels, as we know the "sacrificial upgrades" all the rest are the "conditional leaders", but just want to make sure I am on the same page as he is. I am also unclear what he is including in the "Faction specific upgrades" it sounds like he is including thing that right now only one faction can use, but are not limited to that faction by symbol just that they are the only faction with a ship that can use it right now. If that is the case I can not really argue against it, as yes only that faction can use it, but at the same time it is not really just for that faction as the next wave may give a ship for the other side to be able to use it. If that happens it will drastically change things, so I guess bottom line I am gong to second

I really like what you have done, but some of the thoughts behind it are escaping me so more information would be nice. But once again thank you for what you have done.

Vader radically decreases the survivability of a ship. I consider that to be damage in the form of unmitigated attack damage and critical effects.

I mean this in the most helpful possible way: TL;DR.

Gotta have that executive summary.

Remember, the average American has a third grade reading level.

17 minutes ago, TaeSWXW said:

I mean this in the most helpful possible way: TL;DR.

Gotta have that executive summary.

Remember, the average American has a third grade reading level.

And everyone at university is trained to skim stuff

So, who is left to read?

58 minutes ago, Doppelganger said:

And everyone at university is trained to skim stuff

So, who is left to read?

Me.

Your numbers are interesting, but somewhat pointless in certain areas.

Firepower for instance. Totals and averages per side are not a good way to compare. This applies to everything though. Squadron, engineering, etc...

A better way to draw a comparison would be comparing the cost of each variable.

For instance: Lets say both factions have 1 single ship. Imp anti-squadron fire is 3 dice and the unit casts 100 points. That's 1 die per 33 points. The rebel ship however has 1 die but the unit costs 25 points. Straight up numbers show that the Imps have more anti-squadron dice to throw around...but in reality when we look at the cost of the units, the rebels get more bang for their buck.

When you leave the cost per point of things out of the equation, you really have no idea how they stack up against each other.