1 hour ago, Talkie Toaster said:...4 defence, with both the attacker and the target performing evasive manoeuvres? Yes, that *is* unlikely. Not least because the minion group probably won't be performing Evasive Manoeuvres because they can't suffer strain and will almost certainly need to spend their free manoeuvre actually moving.
Actually just the target doing evasive maneuvers, twice. And not that unlikely once in combat either because there is little reason to use a Move maneuver once you are in range.
Still good catch on the 15% triumphs. Totally did not know that a triumph can be spend on the linked quality. This would significantly change the chances, basically tripling the chance to get oneshotted.
It becomes doesn't change significantly either if you just reach defense 3 and only use evasive ones so that you can move in yourself. Especially as this means that you can GtA and/or shoot yourself first too. It does not even change much if you are a sitting duck, don't evade and just have the shields aligned … well it changes dramatically, but not in a way that really matters 0.1% chance vs 0.02% chance.
Here the math from the calc.
++++RESULTS for Dice Pool: APPDCSSS++++
Total Chance of Success: 40.22%
Total Chance of Advantage: 29.67%
Total Chance of Threat: 49.31%
Total Chance of Failure Symbol: 37.52%
Total Chance of Reaching Target (SSSAA): 0.02%
Total Triumph Chance: 15.97%
Total Despair Chance: 8.33%
+++++++++++++++
It actually even lower than my guess, because each succes result means in most cases no advantage result. Each threat result usually does not show a failure result and this high success results tend to be low advantage results.
Here the base line with just 3 TIE-Minions against a basically defenseless X-Wing with just aligned shields:
++++RESULTS for Dice Pool: APPDDSS++++
Total Chance of Success: 53.75%
Total Chance of Advantage: 33.49%
Total Chance of Threat: 43.87%
Total Chance of Failure Symbol: 24.92%
Total Chance of Reaching Target (SSSAA): 0.1%
Total Triumph Chance: 15.97%
+++++++++++++++
So even in your case this happens once in thousand attacks with reasonable flight groups of 3 ships. You still can do down easy enough from just several hits, but the one-shot potential is … rather low in the more sturdy fighters like the X-Wing. Y-Wings are in this regard even better because of the action efficiency between gunner, astromech and pilot.
Reading Helper for the dice pool:
(B)oost
(S)etback
(A)bility
(D)Difficulty
(P)roficency
(C)hallenge
Edit:
One fundamental principle of the dice system is that it has tendencies to go towards success with threat and failure with advantages, because the two axis in the dice system are not independent from each. other.
Edited by SEApocalypse